Multi Hazard Risk Assessment

1. Research in Urban Disaster
Management- Multi Hazard
Risk Assessment
Prof. Dr. Neha Bansal
Professor
SRM School of Architecture & Interior Design
Email: neha2000neha@gmail.com
Ph: +917669038518

2. MULTI HAZARD- URBAN RISK MANAGEMENT

4. MULTI HAZARD RISKS
URBAN FLOODS EARTHQUAKES
LANDSLIDES
URBAN FIRE

5. CAPITAL RISKS
ENVIRONMENTAL
RISKS
SOCIAL/ CULTURAL
RISKS
ECONOMIC
RISKS
INSTITUTIONAL
AND POLICY RISKS
DAMAGE TO GOVT BULILDINGS
AND ESSENTIAL FACILITIES
TO LIFELINES / UTILITIES
MACHINERIES/ EQUIPMENTS.
WATER & AIR POLLUTION
LOSS OF BIODIVERCITY
CHANGE OF
MICROCLIMATE
LOSS OF LIFE, RESIDENCES,
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
LOSS OF CULTURAL/
HISTORICAL RESOURCES
IMPACT ON VULNERABLE
POPULATION
FINANCIAL LOSS TO GOVTS., TO
BUSINESS AND RESIDENTS
REDUCED INCOME TAX AND
BUSSINESS, INCREASED GOVT
EXPENDITURE
LACK OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING, LOSS
OF HIGH PAYING JOBS.
GOVT. LIABILITY AND STAFF
TURNOVER
DAMAGE TO REPUTATION AND
INCREASED DISTRUST OF GOVT.
EROSION OF COMMUNITY VISION AND
UNDERMINIG OF OTHER POLICIES
Source: Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative, Cross-Cutting Capacity Development Series, Fifth Metro Manila Field Trip Proceedings,
Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction Through Land Use Planning and Enhancing Management Practices

6. 6
Multi-hazard risk assessment refers to a
comprehensive evaluation where
different types of hazards are integrated
into a system ; taking into account not
only the characteristics of the single
hazardous events , but also their mutual
interactions and interrelations.
The goal of multi-hazard risk assessment
is to have the overall view of the effects or
impacts by assessing and mapping the
expected loss due to the occurrence of
various natural hazards on the social
environmental and economic settings in a
given area.

7. RESEARCH AIM
To evolve a multi hazard risk
assessment model towards
urban risk management
(URM) for achieving resilient
sustainable urban
development

8. 1. TO EVOLVE METHODOLOGY AND ANALYTICAL
FRAMEWORK FOR URBAN RISK ASSESSMENT
2. TO IDENTIFY SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS AND
ASSESS THE RISK PROFILE OF THE STUDY AREA
3 . TO GENERATE DATABASE FOR CONDUCTING
URBAN VULNERABILITY AND MULTI HAZARD RISK
4. TO IDENTIFY RISK INDICATORS, AND MAP THE
RISK AREAS
5. TO EVALUATE URBAN VULNERABILITY INDEX
FOR DEHRADUN CITY AT WARD LEVEL
6. TO EVALUATE MULTI HAZARD RISK INDEX
BASED ON INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF HAZARDS’
RISK INDICES AND RECOMMEND FOR URBAN RISK
MANAGEMENT
7. TO DEVELOP A MODEL FOR URBAN RISK
ASSESSMENT.
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

9. OBJECTIVE 1
OBJECTIVE 2
OBJECTIVE 3
OBJECTIVE 4
OBJECTIVE 6
OBJECTIVE 5
OBJECTIVE 7 9

10. PHYSICAL SETTING
Dehra Dun - latitude of 30.32
(30° 19' 0 N) and a longitude of
78.03 (78° 1' 60 E)
Dehradun is the administrative
centre and the interim capital
of Uttaranchal.
As per the Census report of
2001, total population of
Dehradun is 4,47,808.
Altitude:960m Area:300 sq.m
GEOLOGICAL SETTING
The Doon Valley has
 the Himalayas to its north,
 the Shivalik range to its south
 Sal forests in the south.
 the sacred Ganga to its east
 the river Yamuna to its west.

12. Flood at Dehradun (source: www.flickr.com)
Flood at Dehradun (source: www.flickr.com)
DEHRADUN- URBAN FLOODING

13. Plastic factory in SIDCUL industrial area
Firemen douse the flames at the Telephone Exchange near
the Uttarakhand Vidhan Sabha in Dehradun on Thursday.
Tribune Photo: Anil Rawat
DEHRADUN- URBAN FIRE

14. DEHRADUN- HAZARD RISK PROFILES….2

15. Source: www.bmtpc.org
DEHRADUN- LANDSLIDE RISK
Figure A house damaged in a landslide
on the Neshville Road in Dehradun on
September 20, 2010, The Tribune
Figure DEHRADUN: debris of a massive
landslide on Jul 27, 2014, triggered by
heavy rains came crashing at Pangla,45 km
from Dharchula, in Pithoragarh district,

16. DEHRADUN- HAZARD RISK PROFILES….1
16

17. DATA COLLECTION
PRIMARY DATA
SURVEYS/ RAPID
PARTICIPATORY
APPRAISAL
COLLECT DATA,-BY
OBSERVATION, THROUGH
PERSONAL INTERVIEWS,
MAILING OF QUESTIONNAIRES
STUDY AREA
SECONDARY DATA
LITERATURE REVIEW/
CASE STUDIES
REPORTS AND
DOCUMENTATION/ CENSUS
PHOTOS/ AUDIO/ VISUALS
17

18. SECONDARY DATA- HISTORY OF DISASTER SPECIFIC EVENTS
18

19. SECONDARY DATA (BASIC INFORMATION )
19

20. DEHRADUN URBAN VULNERABILITY PROFILE
20

21. PRIMARY DATA (VISUAL OBSERVATIONS )
21

22.  NUMBER -5%
POLPULATION
 CRITERIA- STRATIFIED
RANDOM SAMPELLING
SURVEY
PRIMARY SURVEY- DATA SAMPLING- NUMBER AND CRITERIA
22

23.  SOCIAL INDICATORS
 ECONOMIC
INDICATORS
 DISASTER
INDICATORS
PRIMARY DATA- SURVEY
23

24. 1. Identifying ward
boundaries
2. Identifying major
landmarks
3. Identifying major
roads
A. Major problem in
mismatching of
data
B. Incomplete
information
PRIMARY SURVEYS – WARD LAYOUT-1
24

25. PRIMARY SURVEY –HOUSEHOLD
1 2
25

26. ward
1
ward
2
ward
3
ward
4
ward
5
ward
6
ward
7
ward
8
ward
9
ward
10
ward
11
ward
12
ward
13
ward
14
ward
15
ward
16
ward
17
ward
18
ward
19
ward
20
ward
21
ward
22
ward
23
ward
24
ward
25
ward
26
ward
27
ward
28
ward
29
ward
30
ward
31
ward
32
ward
33
ward
34
ward
35
ward
36
ward
37
ward
38
ward
39
ward
40
ward
41
ward
42
ward
43
ward
44
ward
45
ward
46
ward
47
ward
48
ward
49
ward
50
ward
51
ward
52
ward
53
ward
54
ward
55
ward
56
ward
57
ward
58
ward
59
ward
60
1 No roads ˣ
2 Kuccha roads ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
3 half constructed roads ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
4 Poor road conditions / broken roads ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
5 Narrow roads ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
6 poor roads conditions during rains ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
7 roads dug up by People / authorities -not repaired ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
1 No water supply ˣ ˣ ˣ
2 Polluted water supply ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
3 not consumable Hand pump water ˣ ˣ
4 Irregular water supply ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
5 damage water pipe lines ˣ ˣ ˣ
6 water mixed with sewerage line ˣ ˣ
7 Water stagnation due to leaking water ˣ
1 Low voltage power supply ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
2 Inadequate power supply ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
3 Hanging high tension wires ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
4 no electricity ˣ
1 Garbage dumped on roads ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
2 Garbage dumped on open plots ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
3 Absence of dustbins ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
4 Garbage dumped in drains/ manholes ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
5 Garbage dumped in nullah ˣ ˣ ˣ
7 no place to dispose garbage ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
8 plastic bag nuisance- garbage wrapped in plastic ˣ
1 Filth lying on the roads and not removed for days ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
2 Stray animals menace- spread solid waste on road ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
3 People have to clean themselves ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
4 Lack of regular maintenance and cleanliness- foul smell ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
5 Nullah never gets cleaned up/ once in a year ˣ ˣ
6 Overflowing dustbins create problems ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
1 sanitation workers never visits the area ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
2 Sweeper/ rarely visits / do not come regularly ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
3 Corruption - money demanded by them ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
4
Sweepers also throw the waste on vacant plots/ pile
along the roads ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
5 sweepers refuse to clean the nullaha(concrete waste/ in absence of bribe) ˣ ˣ
6 people hire private sweepers/ clean themselves ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
1 No drainage lines ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
2 open/ Small drainage lines ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
3 Chocked drains ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
4 Damaged drains ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
5 Overflowing drainage lines ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
6 Water logging during rains due to small drains ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
7 Water logging due to absence of drains ˣ
8 Water stagnation due to non cleanliness ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
9 water stagnation due to uneven land/ loww lying area ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
10 drains/ nullah remain filled with garbage ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
11 difficulty in cleaning drains due to fencing ˣ
12
water from mussorie overflows drain and reaches
dangerous level during rains
ˣ
13
huge piles of garbage wrapped in plastic bags on
roads/ drains
ˣ
1 Sewage line absent ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
2 Incomplete sewage line ˣ ˣ ˣ
3 Chocked sewage line ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
4 Sewerage system needs to be repaired ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ ˣ
5 Trenches dug up for sewerage lines ˣ ˣ
sanitation
ward level key issues
DEHRADUN MUNICIPAL WARDS (60 WARDS)
roads
water supply
drainage issues
Safai karamcharis issues
solid waste management-
maintainance
solid waste management-
acessibility
electricity
VISUAL/ RAPID PARTICIPATORY SURVEY -WARD LEVEL ISSUES AND
SURVEY DATA ANALYSIS
26

27. DEHRADUN URBAN VULNERABILITY PROFILE

28. RM

29.  HAZARD INDICATORS
 PHYSICAL
VULNERABILITY
 SOCIAL INDICATORS
 ECONOMIC
INDICATORS
IDENTIFYING INDICATORS
29
1. Identifying ward
boundaries
2. Identifying major
landmarks
3. Identifying major
roads

30. STUDY AREA
CREATION OF BASE DATA
THEMATIC MAPS
CREATION OF
DATA GIS FORMAT/
TABLES ETC.
INDICATORS’ DATA
FROM RESEARCH
METHODOLOGY

31. BASE DATA CREATION
GEOREFERENCING AND MOZAIC
DIGITIZATION
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
DATA SOURCES

33. Raster Analysis using Spatial
Analyst in Arc Gis
AHP (Fuzzy logic)
Z SCORE NORMALIZATION
Tools and techniques
1.Matrix by Dr. A.S. Arya for
Damage Assessment
2.Hazus For Earthquake Scenario
TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES
EARTHQUAKE
Bivariate Statistical Method –
Information value method
For Landslide hazard Zonation
(LHZ)
LANDSLIDE
1.HEC RAS for flood plains
2.Gumbel’s Equation for
rainfall return period
3.Rational Method for runoff
calculation
URBAN FLOODING
URBAN FIRE
Analysis in ARC-GIS/ ward
level data analysis
Buffer Analysis in ARC-
GIS/ ward level data
analysis

34. 34
URBAN FLOOD RISK (21 INDICATORS)
URBAN FIRE RISK (23 INDICATORS)
LANDSLIDE RISK (34 INDICATORS)
EARTHQUAKE RISK (16 INDICATORS)

35. Consequences (C) 1-Catostropic 2- Major 3-Moderate 4- Minor
(Very High Risk
Index)
(High Risk Index) (Moderate Risk
Index)
(Low Risk Index)
Occurrences (L) 1 2 3 4
A
Likely to occur
repeatedly
High
Immediate Action
required to mitigate
risk
High
Immediate Action
required to mitigate
risk
Serious
High Priority
remedial actions
required to mitigate
risk
Moderate
Increase preparedness
and remedial actions
at appropriate time
B
Likely to occur
several times
High
Immediate Action
required to mitigate
risk
High
Immediate Action
required to mitigate
risk
Serious
High Priority
remedial actions
required to mitigate
risk
Moderate
Increase preparedness
and remedial actions
at appropriate time
C
Likely to occur at
some time
High
Immediate Action
required to mitigate
risk
Serious
High Priority
remedial actions
required to mitigate
risk
Moderate
Increase preparedness
and remedial actions
at appropriate time
Low
Take Long term
actions to mitigate
and monitor risk
D
Unlikely to occur but
could happen
Serious
High Priority
remedial actions
required to mitigate
risk
Moderate
preparedness and
remedial actions at
appropriate time
Moderate
Increase preparedness
and remedial actions
at appropriate time
Low
Take Long term
actions to mitigate
and monitor risk
E
May occur but is rare
and exceptional
Moderate
Increase preparedness
and remedial actions
at appropriate time
Low
Take Long term
actions to mitigate
and monitor risk
Low
Take Long term
actions to mitigate
and monitor risk
Low
Take Long term
actions to mitigate
and monitor risk
MULTI HAZARD RISK MATRIX

36. MULTI HAZARD RISK INDEX
URBAN FLOOD RISK
INDEX
URBAN FIRE RISK
INDEX
LANDSLIDE RISK
INDEX
EARTHQUAKE RISK
INDEX

37. MULTI HAZARD RISK INDEX- RESULTS
8
24
11
17

38. RECOMMENDATIONS/
PROPOSALS
CONCLUSIONS AND
CHALLENGES AHEAD

40. CONCLUSIONS
 The advantage of this framework is that, the number of indicators at hazard
specific assessment level can be easily added or removed depending on the
data availability and local issues, without altering holistic methodology
 Secondly another advantage is that ‘n’ number of hazards can be
incorporated and they are integrated using risk matrix based on their
significance in terms of- ‘likelihood of occurrences’ and ‘impact level’, thus
providing a justified integration method
 The model may be refined in further research by establishing the angle
where the relationship and interdependency of two hazards can be explored.
This has not been done in this research as there were no such disaster risks in
the selected area and therefore this aspect needs to be explored in further
research.
 the selection of indicators, their assessment and quantification accuracy can
give very high accuracy rates in terms of results
 Since the indicators are normalized before integrating, this method also
gives an advantage of integrating quantitative and qualitative indicators.

41. URBAN RISK MANAGEMENT- MULTI HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT FOR DEHRADUN CITY
Aim- To evolve a model by conducting Multi Hazard
Risk assessment for developing “URBAN RISK
MANAGEMENT PLAN”
TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES
MULTI HAZARD RISK ASSESSEMNT
Dept. of Arch. & Planning*, Supervisor, Dept. of Arch. & Planning 1 , Supervisor, Dept. of Civil Engineering2
9
1
0
2
4
1
9
4
9
4
4
3
2