Presentation done at the Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, India. Explains the CCAFS Theme 1 workplan and gives an overview on CCAFS.

1. Adapting agriculture
to progressive
climate change
Julian Ramirez
& Theme 1 team
(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)

2. Contents
• Background
– The problem: Climate, climate change and
agriculture
– The framework: CCAFS
• Theme 1 workplan
• Modelling impacts of climate change
• An example with beans
(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)

3. Background: climate, climate change
and agriculture
• Agriculture is a niche-dependent activity
– Located in suitable AND subjectively selected
areas
– Affected by variations in climatic and social drivers
• Yet there are shared strengths and
weaknesses, each system is an specific case
• Climate is the least predictabl driver of
agriculture
• Climate will change
(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)

4. • Population growth
• Non-environmentally
friendly
technologies/practices
LEAD TO GREENHOUSE
GASES EMISSIONS
OUTBREAKS

6. Background: CCAFS
• Stands for Challenge Program on Climate
Change, Agriculture and Food Security
• Created by the Consultative Group on
International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)
“Assessing impacts of climate
change, facilitate adaptation and
alleviate poverty under changing
conditions”

7. Background: CCAFS
• Who does the research?
15 centres + ~70 regional offices

8. Background: CCAFS
• Where is it commited to work? Why?
Prone to drought &
flooding, but with
strong regional
climate institutions
for adapting
Prone to drought
& flooding
(cyclones), and
risk from sea level
rise

9. Background: CCAFS
• How does it act?
(2030s)

10. Theme 1: Adaptation pathways under
progressive climate change
• What does a 2C degree warmer world mean for
agriculture?
• What precipitation trend is expected for the different
regions
• What practices and technologies do exist?
• Which of these can be transferred to facilitate
adaption? How?
• What new need to be developed/adjusted for
adaption
• How to communicate all this?

12. Assessing impacts of future climate

13. Climate model projections by 2030s

14. Research areas: Available and usable
climate data
BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T47 CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-MK3.0 CSIRO-MK3.5 GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1 INGV-ECHAM4 INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2-MEDRES MIUB-ECHO-G
MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2.3.2A NCAR-CCSM3.0
NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3 UKMO-HADGEM1

15. Temperature trend 21st century

16. Modelling approaches
• Selection of crops to assess
• Selection of crop models to use
• Collating input climate and agricultural
data
• Design of experiments
• Calibration, validation and crop model
runs
(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)

17. Developing
adaptation
strategies
• Explore adaptation options
–Genetic improvement
–On-farm management practices
• Test them via modelling
• Build “adaptation packages”
• Assess technology transfer options
(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)

18. Examples: Modelling bean production
Growing season (days) 90
Killing temperature (°C) 0
Minimum absolute
temperature (°C)
13.6
Minimum optimum
temperature (°C)
17.5
Minimum absolute
rainfall (mm)
200
Minimum optimum
rainfall (mm)
363
Maximum optimum
rainfall (mm)
450
Maximum absolute
rainfall (mm)
710
Growing season (days) 90
Killing temperature (°C) 0
Minimum absolute
temperature (°C)
13.6
Minimum optimum
temperature (°C)
17.5
Maximum optimum
temperature (°C)
23.1
Maximum absolute
temperature (°C)
25.6

19. What will likely happen?
2020 – A2
2020 – A2 - changes

20. Developing
adaption
strategies
Most effective genetic
improvement strategy
for areas that are likely
to be vulnerable to the
2050s climate.