The document discusses modeling future deforestation in the Congo Basin and its impact on biodiversity. It finds that deforestation is projected to increase from 6 million hectares over 2000-2010 to 9 million hectares over 2020-2030, primarily due to expansion of agriculture. This increased deforestation threatens great ape habitats and could cause over 10% habitat loss for many species. The modeling also assessed scenarios to meet objectives of food security, economic development, climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation. Increasing agricultural yields had the most positive impacts across objectives. The conclusion states that modeling can inform policymakers to make decisions that balance economic activities and environmental protection in the Congo Basin.
Modeling future deforestation and the impact on biodiversity in the congo basin
1. MODELING FUTURE DEFORESTATION AND THE IMPACT
ON BIODIVERSITY IN THE CONGO BASIN
Martin TADOUM, COMIFAC
Global Landscapes Forum, 201506/12/2015
2. 2
Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
Congo basin forest: Background
• 2nd largest tropical
rainforest: 186 millions ha
• Low historical
deforestation rate: 0,17%
net deforestation over
2000-2005
• Strong interest for REDD+
expressed by COMIFAC
countries
3. Methodological requirements for REDD+
• Definition of reference scenario: historical
deforestation rate + future development
policy for COMIFAC countries
• Development of a robust and transparent MRV
system
• Establishement of the information system on
safeguards (ISS)
• National REDD+ Strategy
Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
4. Congo Basin under pressure
Hydro-power
Iron
Coltan
Small-scale
agriculture
Which development
pathway?
Oil palm
Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
5. A Modeling approach : Methodology
GLOBIOM – global economic model adapted to Congo
Basin context – used to predict future land uses
DEMAND MARKET:
DEMAND = SUPPLY
SUPPLY IMPACTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT
Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
6. Modeling results: Future deforestation
Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
Future deforestation increases from 6Mha over 2000-2010 (historical deforestation)
to 9 Mha over 2020-2030
Deforested area in the COMIFAC countries
2010 2020 2030
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000 Other crops
Sugarcane
Dry Beans
Rice
Pasture
Groundnut
Maize
Oil Palm
Cassava
8. Assessment of scenarios on several
objectives
Food security and
economic
development
Climate change
mitigation
Biodiversity
conservation
Calories
produced by
inhab.
Net food imports
Total
emissions
Emissions from
deforestation
Great apes
habitat loss
Number of
species loosing >
10% of their
habitat
High population and
GDP growth -2.7% 14.9% 12.8% 13.8% 13.1% 9.4%
Low population and
GDP growth -0.5% -23.9% -14.8% -14.6% -13.3% -8.6%
Non respect of
protected areas 0.2% -0.8% 4.3% 2.9% 10.5% 13.5%
Non respect of forest
concessions 0.1% -0.2% 12.3% 14.0% 11.7% 3.5%
Protected areas
expansion -3.2% 4.9% 9.4% 8.9% -3.0% -71.2%
Increase in
agricultural yields 19.6% -25.8% -30.6% -32.1% -26.1% -15.1%
Oil palm plantations
expansion 2.6% 0.3% 1.9% 0.9% 2.1% 1.6%
Increase in
agricultural
yields has
positive
impacts on all
objectives
Priority
investments!
Green: good to reach objective Red: bad to reach objective
Objectives
Scenarios
9. Conclusion
Modeling is an important tool that can inform
decision-makers with analysis of impacts of
economic activities on forest cover, biodiversity and
the land use change. Based on a better
understanding of the land use change, help them
make informed policy decision.
Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
10. THANKS
Tél : (+237) 22 21 35 11 (+237) 22 21 35 12 Fax: (+237) 22 20 48 03 BP. 20818 Yaoundé Cameroun
Email : comifac@comifac.org - comifac2005@yahoo.fr Site web : www.comifac.org
Une dim e nsio n ré g io nale po ur la co nse rvatio n
e t la g e stio n durable de s é co systè m e s
fo re stie rs
COMMISSION DES FORETS
D’AFRIQUE CENTRALE
10
REDD+ Policy Assessment Center
Editor's Notes
The measurement and the compensation of the countries efforts have become a major components of continuing REDD negotiation. For measurement, a reference level to which the future efforts can be compared is necessary.
For the Congo Basin countries, the reference level should be based on the historical rate of deforestation and an adujustment factor, defined by a model taking into account the changing framework (growth of economies and population) in the sub-region.
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REDD-PAC can contribute to the elements in bold letters.
However deforestation in the Congo Basin has accelerated in recent years and annual rates of both degradation and deforestation have almost doubled from 1990-2000 period to 2000-2005. And there are a myriad of signals in the Congo Basin that convergingly indicate an acceleration of forest loss.
Based on the Forest transition theory, the Congo Basin may well be entering the second stage, with accelerated forest losses.
So far, deforestation and forest degradation have been largely associated with expansion of subsistence activities (agriculture and energy) and concentrated around densely populated areas. Local and regional development, population increases and global demand for commodities are likely to increase deforestation and forest degradation in the Congo Basin.
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The GLOBIOM model was set up by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). It’s a linear programming model where the maximization of the producer and consumer surplus under resources and market constraints give the equilibrium quantities and prices for each region and products. It also includes non linear functions, which are represented as a discrete series of linearized steps. Globiom has a global coverage with countries being aggregated in 28 regions. The main advantage of using GLOBIOM is its detailed representation of land use and land qualities.
The studies systematically assessed the status of these different sectors in the Congo Basin as well as prospects for their development in the coming decades. Based on this a qualitative assessment was made on potential impacts on forest cover. Based on this, a qualitative assessment was made on potential impacts on forest cover. agriculture, transport, energy, mining and logging.
The sectoral reports and the outputs of the modeling exercise were then combined to provide Congo Basin countries with an in-depth analysis of the potential future deforestation dynamics. However, it is important to clarify that the study by no means aimed at providing some quantified forecasts of the future deforestation or at establishing reference levels in the context of the REDD negotiations. Rather the study aimed at providing decision-makers with a better understanding of the deforetation dynamics with a particular focus on the inter-linkages between the different sectors and thus the need for a coordinated and truly multi-sectoral approach.
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1. Factors which reduce future deforestation: Higher yield growth, lower population and GDP growth and expansion of protected areas
2. Factors which increase future deforestation: Expansion of oil palm area, agricultural expansion in permanent forest domain and high population and GDP growth
3. GLOBIOM approach allows to quantify the impact of each single crop crop-specific supply chain interventions are possible
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Combination of map of modeled deforestation with potential species habitat quantification of habitat loss through deforestation
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Most pessimistic scenario: High population and economic growth
Most optimistic scenario: Increase of agricultural yields
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1. Unlike in other tropical countries, deforestation is rising in the Congo Basin countries: over 2010-2030 period, it could lead to the emission of 10 gigatons of CO2
2. Higher agricultural yields could reconcile agricultural development, climate change mitigation BUT…Lack of knowledge on the agricultural sector in he Congo Basin is a problem to design efficient policies; Could require a better enforcement and/or expansion of permanent forest domain to avoid rebound effects
3. Strong economic growth could increase deforestation through increased demand for agricultural and forest products BUT…It depends on how the fruits of economic growth are used! If creation of jobs outside the agricultural sector and investment in innovative technologies for increasing land productivity might be positive for forests
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1. Unlike in other tropical countries, deforestation is rising in the Congo Basin countries: over 2010-2030 period, it could lead to the emission of 10 gigatons of CO2
2. Higher agricultural yields could reconcile agricultural development, climate change mitigation BUT…Lack of knowledge on the agricultural sector in he Congo Basin is a problem to design efficient policies; Could require a better enforcement and/or expansion of permanent forest domain to avoid rebound effects
3. Strong economic growth could increase deforestation through increased demand for agricultural and forest products BUT…It depends on how the fruits of economic growth are used! If creation of jobs outside the agricultural sector and investment in innovative technologies for increasing land productivity might be positive for forests
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