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How can ‘Yield gap analysis’ be useful :Global yield gap atlas (gyga)

  1. Global Yield Gap Atlas (GYGA) www.yieldgap.org
  2. How can ‘Yield gap analysis’ be useful  Critical questions of policy makers and R&D organizations:  Where and how can food production be increased on existing agricultural land?  Will it be possible for country/region X to be self- sufficient in food production by 2030 or 2050?  What are the causes of yield gaps and how to overcome them?  How can we better target options for sustainable intensification?
  3. What is novel about the GYGA approach? ‘top-down’ approach Gridded weather, soil, and crop data allows full coverage but has large uncertainty Simulation unit: grid ? Too coarse to be locally relevant and difficult to validate Targeting a tractable number of locations for data collection Simulation unit: location x soil x crop system combination within a climate zone Upscaling from location to region or country by a robust CZ scheme Soil 2 Soil 3Soil 1 LOCATION A Full coverage without loosing local relevance GYGA ‘bottom-up’ approach Soil 2
  4. Yield gap analysis: protocol Climate zones Crop-specific harvested areas Weather station buffer zones Soil types and cropping systems Crop model simulations Actual yields Yield gaps
  5. Countries currently in the GYGA website Completed (27) In progress (19) Likely additions (4)
  6. Summary of GYGA outputs  Interactive website with yield potential, yield gaps, and water productivity for 8 major crops in 27 countries (46 soon) • Open access to data • Transparent, reproducible protocols  Robust spatial framework based on climate zonation  First high resolution digital map with functional soil properties in SSA  Novel protocols for propagating weather data, selection of data sources, and crop modeling  ~15 highly cited publications
  7. Yield gaps in 10 countries in SSA
  8. Application: GYGA technology extrapolation domains • Targeting field research/experimentation • Technology transfer and adoption at scale • Research prioritization for R & D investments • Ex-ante and ex-poste impact assessment • Research on climate change impacts Claessens et al., in prep.
  9. Application: country food self-sufficiency analyses Van Ittersum et al., in prep.
  10. Objectives • Significantly advance scientific capabilities for addressing complex agricultural & food security issues in the context of climate change • Integrated assessments (bio-physical, socio-economic) and ex ante evaluation of adaptation practices & policies • Global and regional scale levels
  11. Two-Track Science Approach Track 1: Model Improvement and Intercomparison Track 2: Climate Change Multi-Model Assessment Regional and Global Scales
  12. Teams, Linkages and Outcomes Capacity Building and Decision Making • Regional vulnerability • Adaptation strategies • Trade policy instruments • Technology exchange Climate Team Crop Modeling Team Economics Team Information Technology Team Improvements and Intercomparisons • Crop models • Agricultural economic models • Scenario construction • Aggregation methodologies Cross-Cutting Themes • Uncertainty • Aggregation and Scaling • Representative Agricultural Pathways Assessments • Regional • Global • Crop-specific Work Groups • Soils • Water Resources • Livestock and Grasslands • Pests and Diseases
  13. Regional Integrated Assessments • 4 regional projects in SSA, 4 in SA • Impact assessment of climate change and adaptation • Systems modeling: crops, livestock, climate, economics • Multiple climate and socio-economic scenarios (RAPs) • Stakeholder interactions along research pathway
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