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Climate and crop modeling by Gummadi Sridhar,Gizachew Legesse,Pauline Chivenge, Martin Moyo,Lieven Claessens

  1. Picture here Climate and crop modeling
  2. Overview of modelling work in ESA Agricultural Systems Climate CRAFT, Downscaling Climate analysis Climate scenarios Yield forecasting Crop APSIM DSSAT Ex-Ante Analysis Climate change impacts Yield gap Risk analysis Landscape SWAT RUSLE2 Watershed impacts Biomass estimation Economic ToA-MD IMPACT?? Tradeoff analysis Spatial GIS Remote sensing Change detection Crop suitability Target domains Livestock???
  3. The Team and Skills • Gummadi Sridhar – DSSAT, EPIC, APSIM, SWAT, CRAFT etc. • Gizachew Legesse – SWAT, GIS/Remote sensing • Pauline Chivenge –SWAT, APSIM • Martin Moyo - APSIM • Lieven Claessens – ToA-MD
  4. Data Resources • Climate data for >200 stations – Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Sudan, Madagascar, Mozambique • Soil data for more than 100 Profiles • Crop varieties calibrated - ????? • Farmer survey data • Flow data for catchments Ziway lake in Ethiopia and Gwayi in Zimbabwe • GIS data layers for Ethiopia (mostly from available global resources)
  5. On going activities • Assessing climate change impacts – AgMIP • Ex-ante analysis of agricultural systems - DS • Forecast based decision making - CCAFS • Yield forecasting – CCAFS • Assessing Impacts of watershed management – WLE • Catchment modelling - WLE • National assessment of sorghum production - DC
  6. DSSAT vs APSIM • Much of E. Africa impacts are small • Impacts are more negative – Short duration varieties – High input management – Long rain season
  7. Changes in SAT
  8. Ex-Ante Analysis Period of simulation 1982-2013 Planting between 1 March and 30 April Harvested or killed by 1 Jun 32 year average grain yield 897 kg/ha 32 year average biomass yield 3748 kg/ha Average contribution of nitrogen @2% N in biomass 75 kg N/ha
  9. Forecast based decision making
  10. Potential for intercropping during kiremt season Period of simulation 1982-2013 Pigeonpea medium duration Mize with no fertilizer Price of maize: 4.3/kg PP grain price: 7.3/kg
  11. Watershed Impacts Year Mean Soil Loss (kg/ha) 2001 7.2 2010 7.7 2015 4.8 Change 2001- 2010 2010- 2015 2001- 2015 Increase 8.9 88 36 Decrease 91.1 12 38 Unchanged 6
  12. Calibration: • R2 = 0.71 (p=0.05) • 16% overestimation • Overestimates low flow; underestimating high flows Validation: • R2 = 0.64 (p=0.05) • 56% overall overestimation • Model overestimates all rainfall flows, esp high rainfall flows Catchment modelling
  13. Remote Sensing GIS Framework for National Assessment Target domains Agro- Ecologica l Zones Crop Coverage Soil distributi on Database Simulation Validation Calibration Climatological Tools Crop simulation Models Catchment models Characterization Downscaled CC scenarios Hind and forecasts Advisory services Climate impacts Ex-Ante analysis Input response Management response Hydrology Ecosystem services Erosion and land degradation Biomass production
  14. Sorghum performance
  15. Crop Suitability • Identify areas where the crop is well adapted • Define the limits for high potential areas – Rainfall – Average temperature – Altitude • Map the high and low potential areas
  16. Yield Gap Trade off Analysis
  17. Moving forward • Organize and strengthen database development • Modelling frameworks (CRAFTS) – Targeting technologies – Ex-ante assessment/Yield gap – Forecasting and early warning • More applications • More work on mandate crops and calibration of relevant varieties • Whole system modelling • Strengthen livestock modelling
  18. ICRISAT is a member of the CGIAR Consortium Thank you!
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