Towards adapted
agro-ecosystems
Julian Ramirez-Villegas
Climate Impacts Group
ICAS
(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
Contents
• Project details
• Background
– The problem: Climate, climate change and agriculture
– The framework: CCAFS
• On...
Project details
• Title: Informing the Adaptation of Agricultural
Systems in Africa and Asia to Progressive
Climate Change...
Background: climate, climate change
and agriculture
• Agriculture is a niche-dependent activity
– Located in suitable AND ...
Background: climate, climate change
and agriculture
Greater variation means we
NEED better monitoring for
quicker responses
Background: climate, climate change
and agriculture
Background: climate, climate change
and agriculture
Background: CCAFS
• Stands for Challenge Program on Climate
Change, Agriculture and Food Security
• Created by the Consult...
Background: CCAFS
• Who does the research?
15 centres + ~70 regional offices
Background: CCAFS
• Where is it commited to work? Why?
Prone to drought &
flooding, but with
strong regional
climate insti...
Background: CCAFS
• How does it act?
(2030s)
Background: CCAFS
• How does it act?
– 2 sets of 3 research themes each
S1
S2
T1: Diagnosing current vulnerability
T2: Unl...
Ongoing work: The EcoCrop Model
It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within
a growing s...
Ongoing work: The EcoCrop Model
• Parameters (crop specific)
– Define the duration of the growing season
– Use the known p...
Bean farm locations
Climatic suitability
Ongoing work: The EcoCrop Model
• Our philosophy
–“Keep it simple, but accurate”
...
Geographic areas of study
Research areas: Overview
Research areas: Available and usable
climate data
Research areas: Available and usable
climate data
• Which suits best for which
assessment model?
• Which one is more trust...
Research areas: Available and usable
climate data
• Examples: Uncertainty in baseline
data
Number of weather stations per ...
TEMPERATURE (JJA) RAINFALL (JJA)
UgandaEthiopia
Comparison
between two
baselines
Research areas: Available and usable
climate data
• Examples: Uncertainty in future data
– Averages: do they mislead?
Research areas: Available and usable
climate data
BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T47 CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-MK3.0 CSIRO-MK3.5 GFDL-CM2....
Research areas: Impact Assessment
(models)
• Selection of crops to assess
• Selection of crop models to use
• Collating in...
Research areas: Impact Assessment
(crops)
• Which crops to model?
Yautia (cocoyam)
Yams Wheat
VetchesTung NutsTriticale
Ta...
Research areas: Impact Assessment
(models)
• Which model(s) to use?
– Which model(s) suit best for a particular
• Crop?
• ...
Research areas: Impact Assessment
(models)
• Two approaches currently selected
– GLAM (Challinor et al. 2004)
– EcoCrop (R...
Developing
adaptation
strategies
• Explore adaptation options
–Genetic improvement
–On-farm management practices
• Test th...
Developing
adaptation
strategies
• Examples: genetic improvement strategies (beans)
Most effective genetic
improvement str...
In summary
• Analyses focused on climate-
change vulnerable areas
• Selection of key crops and
models facilitate the asses...
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Julian R - PhD overview

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Presentation made for description of the nature of my PhD work at the University of Leeds.

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Julian R - PhD overview

  1. 1. Towards adapted agro-ecosystems Julian Ramirez-Villegas Climate Impacts Group ICAS (c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
  2. 2. Contents • Project details • Background – The problem: Climate, climate change and agriculture – The framework: CCAFS • Ongoing work: The EcoCrop model • Geographic areas of study • Research areas – Overview – Available and usable climate data – Impact assessment – Developing adaptation strategies (c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
  3. 3. Project details • Title: Informing the Adaptation of Agricultural Systems in Africa and Asia to Progressive Climate Change over the Coming Decades • Supervision – Andy Challinor (principal @SEE) – Andy Jarvis (secondary @CIAT, Colombia) – Peter Knippertz (RSG member @SEE) – Doug Parker (nominal @SEE) (c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
  4. 4. Background: climate, climate change and agriculture • Agriculture is a niche-dependent activity – Located in suitable AND subjectively selected areas – Affected by variations in climatic and social drivers • Yet there are shared strengths and weaknesses, each system is an specific case • Climate is the least predecible driver of agriculture • Climate will change (c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
  5. 5. Background: climate, climate change and agriculture Greater variation means we NEED better monitoring for quicker responses
  6. 6. Background: climate, climate change and agriculture
  7. 7. Background: climate, climate change and agriculture
  8. 8. Background: CCAFS • Stands for Challenge Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security • Created by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) “Assessing impacts of climate change, facilitate adaptation and alleviate poverty under changing conditions”
  9. 9. Background: CCAFS • Who does the research? 15 centres + ~70 regional offices
  10. 10. Background: CCAFS • Where is it commited to work? Why? Prone to drought & flooding, but with strong regional climate institutions for adapting Prone to drought & flooding (cyclones), and risk from sea level rise
  11. 11. Background: CCAFS • How does it act? (2030s)
  12. 12. Background: CCAFS • How does it act? – 2 sets of 3 research themes each S1 S2 T1: Diagnosing current vulnerability T2: Unlocking the potential of policies for adaptation T3: Enhancement engagement & communication for decision making T4: Adaptation pathways based on current vulnerabilities T5: Adaptation pathways under progressive climate change T6: Poverty alleviation through climate change mitigation Setting baseline Facilitating adaptation
  13. 13. Ongoing work: The EcoCrop Model It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation… • To be submitted for the AFM special issue …and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature… (c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
  14. 14. Ongoing work: The EcoCrop Model • Parameters (crop specific) – Define the duration of the growing season – Use the known presence of the crop to tune growing parameters • Climate data – Monthly minimum, maximum, mean temperatures and rainfall • Result – Suitability rating… can be downscaled to yield
  15. 15. Bean farm locations Climatic suitability Ongoing work: The EcoCrop Model • Our philosophy –“Keep it simple, but accurate” –It’s accurate enough to yield regional predictions –Easy to calibrate –Easy to apply spatially and transfer –Changes point in the same direction as predicted with other models –Cross-checked with experts
  16. 16. Geographic areas of study
  17. 17. Research areas: Overview
  18. 18. Research areas: Available and usable climate data
  19. 19. Research areas: Available and usable climate data • Which suits best for which assessment model? • Which one is more trustable/valid? • What about uncertainties? –In baselines? –In projections? –How to inform agricultural PM on them?
  20. 20. Research areas: Available and usable climate data • Examples: Uncertainty in baseline data Number of weather stations per squared map unit using a circular neighbourhood of 2 degree
  21. 21. TEMPERATURE (JJA) RAINFALL (JJA) UgandaEthiopia Comparison between two baselines
  22. 22. Research areas: Available and usable climate data • Examples: Uncertainty in future data – Averages: do they mislead?
  23. 23. Research areas: Available and usable climate data BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T47 CNRM-CM3 CSIRO-MK3.0 CSIRO-MK3.5 GFDL-CM2.0 GFDL-CM2.1 INGV-ECHAM4 INM-CM3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2-MEDRES MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2.3.2A NCAR-CCSM3.0 NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3 UKMO-HADGEM1
  24. 24. Research areas: Impact Assessment (models) • Selection of crops to assess • Selection of crop models to use • Collating input climate and agricultural data • Design of experiments • Calibration, validation and crop model runs (c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
  25. 25. Research areas: Impact Assessment (crops) • Which crops to model? Yautia (cocoyam) Yams Wheat VetchesTung NutsTriticale Taro (cocoyam) Sw eet potatoes Sunflow er seedSoybeans Sorghum Sisal Sesame seed Seed cotton Safflow er seed Rye Roots and Tubers, nes Rice, paddy RapeseedRamieQuinoa Pulses, nes Potatoes Poppy seed Popcorn Plantains Pigeon peas Peas, dry Other BastfibresOlivesOilseeds, Nes Oil palm fruit OatsMustard seedMixed grain Millet MelonseedManila Fibre (Abaca) Maize LupinsLinseedLentils Karite Nuts (Sheanuts)JuteHempseedHemp Tow Waste Groundnuts Fonio Flax fibre and tow Fibre Crops Nes Cow peas, dry Coconuts Chick peas Cereals, nes Castor oil seed Cassava Canary seedBuckw heat Broad beans, horse beans, dry Beans Barley Bambara beansAgave Fibres Nes0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Harvested area (ha*100,000) Ranking(area) How many times is a crop in the top 10, in each of the study sub- regions? *Data courtesy Ann Koehler 1. Maize 2. Sorghum 3. Millet 4. Rice 5. Groundnut 6. Cassava 7. Bean 8. Wheat 9. Cowpea 10. Yam
  26. 26. Research areas: Impact Assessment (models) • Which model(s) to use? – Which model(s) suit best for a particular • Crop? • (Sub-)region? – Which is more trustable/accurate/valid? – At which spatial scale should it be applied? – How many of them should be used?
  27. 27. Research areas: Impact Assessment (models) • Two approaches currently selected – GLAM (Challinor et al. 2004) – EcoCrop (Ramirez et al. in prep) • One more being decided – InfoCrop (Aggarwal et al. 2006): widely used & tested in India • (Not written in stone)
  28. 28. Developing adaptation strategies • Explore adaptation options –Genetic improvement –On-farm management practices • Test them via modelling • Build “adaptation packages” • Assess technology transfer options (c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
  29. 29. Developing adaptation strategies • Examples: genetic improvement strategies (beans) Most effective genetic improvement strategy for areas that are likely to be vulnerable to the 2050s climate.
  30. 30. In summary • Analyses focused on climate- change vulnerable areas • Selection of key crops and models facilitate the assessment • Uncertainties in modelling and data need to be informed • Adequate and doable win-win adaptation strategies need to be developed, tested and targeted • Will contribute as a whole, along with other research themes, to CCAFS (c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)

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