Cashew: The winner cash crop in West Africa under a changing climate


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Cashew: The winner cash crop in West Africa under a changing climate

  1. 1. Cashew: the winner cash cropin W-Africa under a changingclimateEric Rahn1, Peter Läderach2, Armando Martinez2, Narioski Castro2September 18th1International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia2International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Managua, Nicaragua
  2. 2. Agenda• Presentation of CIAT• Objectives• Methodology – Data – Crop suitability modeling• Results• Opportunities/constraints• Questions 2
  3. 3. International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) • CIAT: Part of Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research • Mission: To reduce hunger and poverty, and improve human health in the tropics through research aimed at increasing the eco-efficiency of agriculture.DAPA - Decision and Policy analysisWhat we do: Spatial Analysis, climate change,Impact analysis models, ecosystem services,supply chain analysis, … CIAT/DAPA - Lead Center of CCAFS
  4. 4. Objectives1. Present future climate scenarios for the main cashew growing regions of Ghana and Ivory Coast and their impact on the relative suitability for these regions to grow cashew1. Outline key opportunities to turn the comparative advantage into a sustainable business opportunity for the entire supply chain 4
  5. 5. MethodologyPic by Neil Palmer (CIAT) 5
  6. 6. Downscaling DataCurrent climate:• database• 19 bioclimatic variables derived from monthly temp. and rainfall valuesFuture climate prediction:• 19 Global Circulation Models recommended by the IPCC• Scenario: SRES-A2a (“business as usual”)• Downscaling
  7. 7. Suitability prediction Current climate Future climate 19 bioclimatic variablesMAXENT is a general-purposemachine learning method formaking predictions from Prediction ofincomplete information. It is future cashewgenerally considered to be the Evidence data of presencemost accurate model (Elith et al. todays cashew areas2006). 7
  8. 8. Crop suitability modeling Suitability to future climate (2050) – Current suitability = Change in suitability Presence points • Samples (GPS points) • Land cover and soil maps • Current Production AreasWorldClim Climate Data Precipitationhttp://worldclim.orgMore than 47,000 stations worldwide Find probability distribution ofMaxEnt (crop niche model) maximum entropy,Ranges: Temperature and precipitation subject to a set of constrains Temperature 8
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  10. 10. ResultsPic by Neil Palmer (CIAT) 10
  11. 11. 20502030 current 11
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  17. 17. Drivers of suitability change 17
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  21. 21. OpportunitiesPic by Neil Palmer (CIAT) 21
  22. 22. Key opportunities• In the near future current cashew growing areas will become more suitable• Cashew could be important to maintain/improve thousands of livelihoods – Cultivation on areas unsuitable for other crops – Can substantially contribute to food security, when intercropped with other food crops (maize, millet, yam, etc.) – Increase of yield and quality by implementing new technologies (e.g. germplasm) – Several uses of the fruit (juice, fuel, etc.) – Environmental services (soil protection, reforestation, + feedback on climate, cc mitigation)• Increasing demand of cashew can be covered 22
  23. 23. Constraints• Productivity in West-Africa is still very low – Little access to information, money, improved varieties, old trees, crop & pest management, lack of labor availability in smallholders, lack of farmer organization, etc.• Increased risk of bushfires• Soils and other land features affect suitability as well• Impact of climate change on pests and diseases? 23
  24. 24. Questions• What are key constrains/opportunities of extending cashew plantations in WA?• What do you consider key elements of a sustainable cashew supply chain?• What are the major trends in the cashew sector with respect to where and how the crop will be cultivated? 24
  25. 25. More questions• According to CIAT’s results the suitable area for production will increase, how does that information affect decision making of relevant stakeholders? – Research investment – Farmers outreach, technical assistance – Investment in processing facilities• What are important criteria that need to be taken into account when new areas for cashew plantations are searched for? – Climate – Land-use cover (e.g. forest) – competing crops? 25
  26. 26. THANK YOU! 26