Agriculture stands at the nexus of three of the greatest challenges facing humankind in the 21st century. In 2012 the Commission ….. Delivered its final report. This Commission was made up of 13 international experts, and was chaired by Sir John Beddington the UK Chief Scientist. The Commission urged action on climate change and agriculture.
The first challenge is related to achieving food security for the world’s population
It is estimated that 100% more food will be needed by 2050 (assuming current trajectories of diets and populations). This has major implications for land cover change.
The second challenge relates to adapting to climate change, with the agricultural sector one of the most impacted by climate change
The second challenge for agriculture relates to climate change adaptation. And if there is a single graph to show this challenge then it is this one for SSA.Thornton from ILRI uses a four degree temperature rise scenario, which based on current commitments to reduce GHGs is a distinct possibility. By 2090 vast areas of Africa will have experienced >20% reduction in growing season length. And huge areas 5-20% reduction. Almost no areas have rises in growing season. This illustrates the magnitude of potential impacts on agriculture from climate change.
For Lobell map: Values show the linear trend in temperature for the main crop grown in that grid cell, and for the months in which that crop is grown. Values indicate the trend in terms of multiples of the standard deviation of historical year-to-year variation. ** A 1˚C rise tended to lower yields by up to 10% except in high latitude countries, where in particular rice gains from warming.** In India, warming may explain the recently slowing of yield gains. For yield graph: Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields for major producers and for global production. Values are expressed as percent of average yield. Gray bars show median estimate and error bars show 5-95% confidence interval from bootstrap resampling with 500 replicates. Red and blue dots show median estimate of impact for T trend and P trend, respectively. **At the global scale, maize and wheat exhibited negative impacts for several major producers and global net loss of 3.8% and 5.5% relative to what would have been achieved without the climate trends in 1980-2008. In absolute terms, these equal the annual production of maize in Mexico (23 MT) and wheat in France (33 MT), respectively.Source:Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980David B. Lobell1,*, Wolfram Schlenker2,3, and Justin Costa-Roberts1Science magazine
Here we have price rises to 2050 for three economic scenarios, an optimistic, baseline and pessimistic one.For maize, rice and wheat. The green is the impact due to economic and demographic changes, Projections suggest that food prices are likely to increase considerably in the 21st century; this is unlike what happened in the 20th century, where prices fell or remained constant.And this is for an optimistic temperature rise – a two degree warmerworld
The third challenge for agriculture relates to its environmental footprint. Recent compilations suggest that food systems contribute 19-29% of global greenhouse gasses, including those through land cover change.
Challenge Program then CGIAR Research ProgramTheme Leaders spread across CG system and the global change community in advanced research institutesNew way of working – deliberately networked
54% funds were passed on as partnership funds, i.e. to non-host organisations and non-CGIAR partners in 2010Additionally many non-funded partners, which may have co-leveraged funds or align workplans but without co-fundingParticularly for policy engagementCORAF West African Agricultural Research Coalition (of National Agricultural Research Institutions)ASARECA West African Agricultural Research Coalition (of National Agricultural Research Institutions)ICAR Indian Council of Agricultural ResearchCAADP WMO World Meteorological OrganizationFARASTART
Main points.This presentation takes for granted that it is worth knowing the radiative forcing and mitigation potential of fields, production systems, and landscapes.There are relatively few measurements from developing countries and even less in diversified and complex landscapes.This slide shows many of the considerations and challenges that one needs to think about before measuring such landscapes, all of which effect the accuracy and utility of the measurements….describe the nature of a select few of the challenges a bit.THEREFORE, we in collaboration with many others are developing a protocol , a standard of practice, of how to measure emissions in these types of farming systems
There are some nice research results showing that climate shocks impact women more than men.And the baseline survey has shown that women have less access to climate information that men.Yet as we all know, women are crucial for household food security. Thus CCAFS is committed to giving major attention to gender-related research. In the first year of operation there was a joint FAO-CCAFS collaboration to produce a training guide for gender related research on cc and agric. Gender work is mainstreamed into all CCAFS theme and regional work.
The second challenge relates to adapting to climate change, with the agricultural sector one of the most impacted by climate change
In a sense all CCAFS work is geared towards enhancing capacity to anticipate and manage different and uncertain climatic futuresCapacity enhancement integrated into all themesCCAFS’s comparative advantage is in policy-oriented researchSo gearing capacity enhancement activities in this area
Drought and flood tolerant varieties of crops
Overview presentation of CCAFS Capacity Building Strategy for West Africa
WASCAL MRP/GRP Advisory Boards Meeting November 20 - 21, 2012, Elmina, Ghana Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Program (CCAFS):overview and capacity building strategy for WA Robert Zougmoré West Africa Program Leader CCAFS
2 • 3/21/11 Outline 1. The global and African challenges 2. Program design 3. Themes 4. Capacity building in CCAFS 5. Collaboration with WASCAL
Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change • “Business as usual in our globally interconnected food system will not bring us food security and environmental sustainability” • “The window of opportunity to avert a humanitarian, environmental and climate crisis is rapidly closing”Beddington et al. (2012) Science 335: 289-290 www.ccafs.cgiar.org/commission
IPCC PROJECTIONS FOR AFRICA• CO2 enrichment• Temperature increase of 1.5 to 4 ⁰C in this century• Fewer colder days and nights• Frequent hot days and nights• Arid areas will become drier, humid areas wetter• Increase in droughts and floods• Sea level rise• High levels of desertification and soil salinization in some countries
Length of growing season is likely to decline.. Length of growing period (%) >20% loss To 2090, taking 18 5-20% loss climate models No change 5-20% gain Four degree rise >20% gainThornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy Science
Crop suitability will fall in many areas% change -95 to -31 -30 to -11 50 crops, to 2050 -10 to -1 0 1 to 29 30 to 47 48 to 98 Andrew Jarvis, CIAT/CCAFS
Historical impacts on wheat (1980-2008) Changes in growing season temperature China India US % Yield impact Russia for wheat France GlobalLobell et al (2011)
• Greater frequency of extreme events• More severe extreme events
Climate change will add greatly to price increases… % price increase 2010-2050 Maize Rice WheatNelson et al., 2010 IFPRI
Impact of weather shocks Oxfam (2012) based on D. Willenbockel (2012)
19 • 3/21/11 CCAFS: the partnership The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) is a strategic collaboration between the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP).
20 • 3/21/11CCAFS in WA:working inpartnership Regional organizations (e.g. CORAF, FARA, ASARECA) Continental initiatives (e.g. CAADP, ECOWAP,, PAU) Meteorological, development, capacity organizations (e.g. AGRHYMET, NMO) National research & extension State sectoral institutions NGOs, Private sector, FOs
21 • 3/21/11 CCAFS objectives 1. Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems. 2. Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues in agricultural policies, at all levels.
22 • 3/21/11 The CCAFS Framework Adapting Agriculture to Climate Variability and Change Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for: Improved 1.Adaptation to Progressive Climate Environmental Improved Change Health Rural 2.Adaptation through Managing Climate Livelihoods Risk Improved 3.Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation Food Security 4. Integration for Decision Making •Linking Knowledge with Action •Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning •Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems
23 • 3/21/11 THE VISION To adapt farming systems, we need to: • Close the production gap by effectively Progressive using current technologies, practices and Adaptation policies • Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential • Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level
24 • 3/21/11 Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates Objective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity
25 • 3/21/11 Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 Adapted Breeding strategies Species and farming systems for climate stresses genetic diversity• Holistic testing of • Climate-proofed • Knowledge for betterfarming options global and national use of germplasm for(benchmark sites) breeding strategies adaptation• Agricultural • Regional fora to • On-farm use ofknowledge transfer discuss and set diversity to adapt• Analysis of prioritiesenabling policies and • Policies of access forinstit. mechanisms benefit sharing
26 • 3/21/11Farm of the FutureApproach Strengthen the adaptive capacity of farmers and AIS to climate change using climate analogue tools and adaptation practices (learning opportunities)
27 • 3/21/11 Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org) New data • Over 3,000 trials • 16 crops • 20 countries • > 15 international and national institutions
28 • 3/21/11 THE VISION • Climate-related risk impedes development, leading to chronic poverty and dependency • Actions taken now can reduce Risk vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience Management in the long term •Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations.
29 • 3/21/11 Managing Climate Risk · 2 Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level) Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response (Food system level) Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services
30 • 3/21/11 Managing Climate Risk · 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 Building resilient Food delivery, trade, Climate information livelihoods and crisis response and services• Designed • Manage price info.diversification volatility via trade • Historical data• Index-based risk and storage reconstruction • Downscaled, tailoredtransfer • Improved early seasonal forecast predictions• Anticipatory warning systems • Monitor and forecast crops,mgmt, aided by rangelands, pests & diseasesforecasts and • Coordin. platform servicescommunications • Food safety nets • Institutional arrangements• Participatory • Post-crisis • Communication processesaction research recovery • Capacity bldg for providers
Scaling up climate31 • 3/21/11information services- Strengthen the capacity of NHMS in forecasting- Tailor climate information to the needs of farmers- 42 participants (NHMS) staff trained to produce seasonal forecasts (ECOWAS countries, Agrhymet, ACMAD)− Forecast bulletin produced disseminated- 140 participants (33 women) (farmers, extension, NGOs staff) trained (Ségou, Yatenga, Kaffrine) to understanding seasonal forecast information & make management decisions.- Evaluation of the seasonal forecast results with the farmers
32 • 3/21/11 VISION Pro-poor Short-term: Identifying options feasible Mitigation for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes Long-term: Addressing conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation
33 • 3/21/11 Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3 Objective One: Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways Objective Two: Develop incentives and institutional arrangements Objective Three: Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications
34 • 3/21/11 Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 Low-carbon Incentives and On-farmdevelopment pathways instit. arrangements mitigation options• Evaluate lowest • Test feasibility of • Test technologicalcarbon footprints for: carbon market for feasibility offood production, smallholders, smallholder mitigationadaptation, energy focusing on best bets on farmsproduction, sustainable (SE Asia, Latin Amer) • Dvlpt cost-effective,intensification, povertyalleviation • Assess potential simple, integrated• Assess impacts of non-market options MRV.current policies • Assess impacts on • Assess impacts of• Develop coherent marginalized groups all GHGs throughvision to guide agric and women their lifecycles.dvlpt
Need to developing a shared protocol for 35 • 3/21/11 GHG emissions Scale and boundaries Landscapes Knowledge generation & Farming systems information exchange Linking to Plot yields and foodManagement security& activity data Measurement equipmentMixed production systems ICRAF, ILRI, IRRI, ICRISAT, FAO, University of Hohenheim, Global Research Alliance for Agricultural Greenhouse Gases CP
36 • 3/21/11 VISION •Provide an analytical and diagnostic framework, grounded in the policy context • Synthesize lessons learned •Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers •Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions Integration •Build partners’ capacity For Decision-Making
38 • 3/21/11 Objective One: Linking knowledge with action Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis
39 • 3/21/11 Integration for Decision Making · 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 Linking knowledge Data and tools for Frameworks for policy with action analysis and planning analysis• Regional scenarios • Integrated • Assess CC impacts at• Vulnerability assessment framework, global & regional levelsassessments toolkits, and databases on: producers, to assess CC impacts consumers, natural• Approaches to resources, anddecision making • Baselines, data international transactionsinformed by good generation & collation, scoping studies, and • Analyze likely effects ofscience tool development scientific adap. and mitig.• Approaches to options, national policiesbenefit vulnerable, • Socially-differentiated • Analyze differentialdisadvantaged decision aids and info impacts of options ongroups for different different social groups stakeholders
Regional socio-economic scenarios for West AfricaWhat has been done? Policy driver• Four scenarios have been created Short-term Long-term with actors from governments, private priorities priorities sector, civil society, academia and Governments A slow and Dominant Force Actors facilitate short- State media including support from regional term gain: cash, painful transition to sustainable bodies ECOWAS and CORAF carbon and states calories Ungoverned, quick A struggle Non-state• Scenarios explore food security, and chaotic between civil Actors environmental change and livelihoods development; society and the dealing with crises private sector that under different contexts of state, at the expense of is ultimately private sector and civil society power investment productive and policy priorities • Scenarios inform global agricultural economic models (IMPACT, GLOBIOM) linked to climate models
Focusing on women farmers• Climate-related shocks have had much greater negative impacts on women than men• Women have less access to climate information than men• Women crucial for food security – when have more power, access and earnings, then more income allocated to food, child nutrition and education
The CGIAR Research CentersWhere is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices Lead center - CIAT
Place-based field research work Indo- Gangetic Plains: There is risk of heatWest stress, meltingAfrica: East glaciers, and sea levelExtreme rainfall variability Africa: rise; the intensity andimpedes precipitation Climate change will probability of extremepredictions, but the Sahel likely intensify events will likelywill likely experience surface and increase.shorter growing periods. groundwater stress. Regional director:Regional director: Regional director: Pramod AggarwalRobert Zougmoré James Kinyangi
Research userdriven for Science PARTICIPATORY ACTION RESEARCH Objective: Test, adapt and monitor strategic innovations supporting climate-smart agriculture FO/CBO Approach: particular actions, interventions tested and NGOs PRIVATE implemented simultaneously with local partners, researchers CCAFS & development workers (CGIAR cooperating closely NARES + ESSP) RECs (CILSS, ARIs INSAH, UNIVs etc.) PARTNERS CSO
What is Climate Smart Agriculture?Agriculture that sustainably:1. increases productivity2. resilience (adaptation)3. reduces GHG (mitigation)And enhances achievement ofnational food security anddevelopment goals (FAO, 2010)WWW.FAO.ORG/CLIMATECHANGE/CLIMATESMART/EN
Capacity enhancement in CCAFS A Definition People or organizations increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently. The CCAFS Vision • Adaptation requires embedded local capacity, not external solutions • CCAFS aims to enhance both (a) research capacities and (b) capacities to link knowledge and action
Capacity enhancement in CCAFS For research partners to generate useful data, tools, and results. Post-grad students, meteorological services, climate and agricultural research institutes, field workers... e.g. CLIFF Climate Food and Farming NetworkFor policy partners to demand anduse data, tools, and results.Governments (policy makers, climatenegotiators), civil society, developmentorganizations, farmers’ organizations, privatesector.e.g. User-driven regional scenarios
Examples of global capacityenhancement work in CCAFSResearchers’ capacity: The Climate Food and Farming Research Network (CLIFF) supports PhD fieldwork & links students to the development of a global GHG protocol for smallholders www.cliff.life.ku.dkResearch users’ capacity: The Food Climate Research Network (FCRN) provides updates on research and practice for practitioners, & a forum for problem-solving www.fcrn.org.uk
CAPACITY BUILDING STRATEGY IN WAEnable stakeholders to effectively using scientific knowledge, tools & methods for informed planning & decision makingFocus on capacity of research (NARS, Universities…) and ability of countries’ negotiators and CSOs, farmers’ organizations, to contribute effectively to debates in the international arena:Short-term capacity building: train people in the skills needed to undertake the research.Long-term capacity building: liaise with other actors who can help develop curricula and provide graduate training (e.g. WASCAL).Working relationships with regional & national actors (e.g. AGRHYMET-INSAH-CILSS) contribute to strengthen their capacity -and that of national partners- to accomplish their mandate of reducing climate risks for improved food security.
CCAFS and WASCAL• Possibilities for masters & PhDs in CCAFS PAR research work (collaboration with Univ.)• Additional research themes of good match for WASCAL-sponsored PhD students (CCAFS TLs)• Access to CCAFS sites• Access to data sets,• Access to CCAFS publications (report series, working papers, etc.)• Access to meetings, national/regional networks• Start–up logistics/contacts/introductions/advice