Can we feed the world and address climate change? The case for climate smart agriculture

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Presentation on success stories and challenges ahead to make global agriculture more climate smart. Brownbag presentation in the WorldBank on 15th May by Andy Jarvis from the CCAFS program of the CGIAR.

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Can we feed the world and address climate change? The case for climate smart agriculture

  1. 1. Rising to the challenge of establishing a climate smart agriculture Andy Jarvis, CCAFS
  2. 2. 2013 1. What is Climate Smart Agriculture?
  3. 3. 2013 Why is CSA important? - Adaptation Global wheat and maize yields: response to warming
  4. 4. 2013 Why is CSA important? – Food Security Maíz T-Max T-Max Yield Yield Arroz Climate drives yield variation: our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it
  5. 5. 2013 Why is CSA important? - Mitigation 13 Agriculture-related activities are 19-29% of global greenhouse gas emissions (2010) Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestock, energy) Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands Industrial processes Waste Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year Non-Ag Energy 70 11 4 2
  6. 6. 2013 Why is CSA important? - Mitigation “Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2°C world Gt CO2e per year 12 15 36 70 2010 2050 (Business as usual) 2050 (2°C target) Non-agricultural emissions Agricultural and land- use change emissions >70% 48 85 21
  7. 7. 2013 2. There are significant successes in CSA
  8. 8. CSA options involve farms, landscapes, food systems and services landscape crops livestock fish food system services Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT
  9. 9. CSA options for landscapes landscape Ensure close links between practice and policy (e.g. land use zoning) Manage livestock & wildlife over wide areas Increase cover of trees and perennials Restore degraded wetlands, peatlands, grasslands and watersheds Create diversity of land uses Harvest floods & manage groundwater Address coastal salinity & sea surges Protect against large- scale erosion
  10. 10. Example: Sustainable land management in Ethiopia Photos: W. Bewket, AAU  190,000 ha rehabilitated  98,000 households benefit  Cut-and-carry feed for livestock  380,000 m3 waterways  900,000 m3 compost
  11. 11. CHINA Paying for ecosystem services  2.5 million farmers paid to set aside land and plant trees Sequestered over 700,000 tonnes of carbon 2 million ha rehabilitated – reducing erosion  Increased yields
  12. 12. CSA options for crops & fields crops Crop diversification and “climate-ready” species and cultivars Altering cropping patterns & planting dates Better soil and nutrient management e.g. erosion control and micro-dosing Improved water use efficiency (irrigation systems, water micro- harvesting) Monitoring & managing new trends in pests and diseases Agroforestry, intercropping & on-farm biodiversity
  13. 13. AFRICA Drought-tolerant maize boosts food security  DTMA has developed 100 new varieties released across 13 countries; 2 million smallholders  Reduces need to use more land  Resilience to drought  Yields up to 35% more grain
  14. 14.  Sequestratio n of carbon in soil and trees NIGER Bringing back the Sahel’s ‘underground forest’  5 million ha of land restored, over 200 million trees re-established  Reduces drought impacts  Additional half a million tonnes of grain per year
  15. 15. CSA options for livestock livestock High-quality diets that increase conversion efficiency and reduce emissions Herd management e.g. sale or slaughter at different ages Changing patterns of pastoralism and use of water points Livestock diversification and “climate-ready” species and breeds Improved pasture management Use of human food waste for pigs & chickens
  16. 16. Example: Forest land use and cattle management in Brazil Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT 45% higher stocking density no increase in pasture area better pasture quality 40% reduction in emissions agriculture decoupled from deforestation
  17. 17. CSA options for fisheries & aquaculture fish Better physical defences against sea surges Quota schemes matched to monitoring of fish stocks Greater energy efficiency in harvesting Rehabilitation of mangroves & breeding grounds Less dependence of aquaculture on marine fish feed Reducing losses and wastage
  18. 18. CSA options for food systems food system More creative and efficient use of by-products Less energy- intensity in fertilizer production Improving resilience of infrastructure for storage & transport (e.g. roads, ports) Changing diets Greater attention to food safety Reducing post- harvest losses & consumer wastage
  19. 19. Example: “Love Food Hate Waste” in United Kingdom  13 % less household food waste  consumers saving $4 billion  national water footprint down 4%  3.6 million tonnes CO2eq less per year
  20. 20. CSA options for services services Monitoring & data for food security, climate & ecosystems Early warning systems & weather forecasts Mobile phone, radio & other extension or information for farmers Research that links farmers & science Weather insurance & micro-finance Financial transfers & other “safety nets” for climate shocks
  21. 21.  12 million farmers & 40 different crops insured INDIA Weather-based insurance  Reduces pressure to bring more land under cultivation Reduces risks  Allows farmers to access fertilizer and better seed
  22. 22. Example: Seasonal weather forecasts in Senegal 3 million farmers get forecasts 70 community radio stations better food security outcomes
  23. 23. 2. But major scaling up is needed
  24. 24. 1.5 billion people depend on Degraded Land USD 7.5 billion lost to extreme Weather (2010) 1 billion more People by 2030 1.4 billion living in Poverty 14% more Food needed per decade Nearly 1 billion going Hungry
  25. 25. Target: Half a billion farmers practicing CSA Mitigation targets? Scholes et al., 2013. Agriculture and Climate Change Mitigation in the Developing World DC Targets (2035) • 22% reduction in agricultural emissions relative to the ‘business as usual’ baseline • 46% reduction in forestry and land use change, relative to a projection of current trends Target: Half a billion with enhanced adaptive capacity So what are the targets?
  26. 26. Are these targets insurmountable? “63 million customers per day, so 500 million smallholders in the next decade is easy!” 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Relative2012=100% Food demand Grain yield per ha GDP Cell phone penetration Global Harvest Initiative 2013 FAOSTAT World Bank/Standard Chartered GSMA/Deloitte Sub-Saharan Africa
  27. 27. 27 Requires a comprehensive approach • Partnerships: research and development, science and policy, public and private • Knowledge generation: practices/technologies, programmatic elements (insurance, climate information services) • Work on CSA enablers: (sub-)National policies, UNFCCC global process, donor agendas • Incentive mechanisms: innovative finance, private sector
  28. 28. 28 Capacity Building Gender Engagement 1. CSA Alliance, World Bank, IFAD, Climate Finance Orgs, Ministries 2. World Vision, National Meteorological Agencies, Disaster Risk Agencies, Insurance Agencies 3. IIASA, FAO, Global Research Alliance for Agricultural GHGs 4. Food security and climate adaptation agencies, GFAR, CFS • Multiple local partners (e.g. CARE, Vi Mediae, PROLINNOVA, National Insurance Company of India, NARES) Key Working with partners to collect the evidence and to change opinions and worldviews Working with partners to understand what works 1&3: CSA Alliance, World Bank, IFAD, Green Climate Fund, PROLINNOVA, climate finance orgs, ministries 2: World Vision, National Meteorological Agencies, Disaster Risk Agencies, Insurance Agencies Working with partners to make it happen Enhanced local adaptation planning processes Flagship 1: Climate – smart agricultural practices
  29. 29. Alternate-Wetting-and-Drying (AWD) 30% water 20-50% GHG Without compromising yield • Keep flooded for 1st 15 days and at flowering • Irrigate when water drops to 15 cm below the surface 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 15.0 8.7 -42% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 tCO2-eq/ha*season 4.9 3.9 -20% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 -22%-28% 6.0 4.7 6.4 4.6 Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying Summer- Autumn Winter- Spring Sander et al. in press IRRI AWDConventional
  30. 30. Addressing constraints From national level… to implementation at provincial level…. Slide by Bjoern Ole Sander, IRRI
  31. 31. Coffee-banana intercropping 0 1 2 3 Monocrops Intercrops Arabica (t/ha) Banana (tenth t/ha) Arabica systems Arabica Banana 0 0.5 1 1.5 Monocrops Intercrops Robusta (t/ha) Banana (tenth t/ha) Robusta systems Robusta Banana 2268 4307$ ha yr 1286 1770$ ha yr More carbon in the system Diversification Decreases drought impacts Increased income Enhanced food security
  32. 32. Fuente: Rincón, 2013 27 110 450 600 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Sabana nativa Pasturas degradadas Gramíneas/leguminosas Pastura con fertilizante Pastura mejorada con maiz Pastura despues de 3 años de rotación de maiz y soya Animal live weight gain (kg/ha/year) Native savanna Grass/legume pasture with fertilizer Improved pasture planted with maize Pasture after 3 years of maize-soybean rotation Degraded pasture
  33. 33. What if… - we spread agroforestry across Africa? Analysis based on WRI 2013 Approximate area suitable for Agroforestry in Africa: ~ 300 Million Ha 140+ Million People below $1.25 per day
  34. 34. What if… - we spread agroforestry across Africa? Carbon sequestration potential (2t C/ha/yr.) above and below ground with low growth habit, low tree density and poor site quality, Nair et al. 2009 Underlying area 300 million ha, 285 million people, assumed increase in yields +50% (conservative), Analysis based on WRI 2013 PRODUCTIVITY Multiple benefits include:  Reduced soil erosion  Additional diversified income from wood products  Strengthened draught resistance from increased water storage RESILIENCE FOOTPRINT  +615 Calories per person/day for 140+ Million poor people  Average yield increase 50%  Savings of over 6 Million tons of synthetic fertilizerAdoption on 150 Million Ha Adoption on 300 Million Ha +44 Million Tons +88 Million Tons Food Production Carbon Sequestration - 1 Gt of CO2e per year - 2 Gt of CO2e per year Adoption on 150 Million Ha Adoption on 300 Million Ha  2 Gt Co2e storage per year corresponds to ~1/3 of Global Direct Ag Emissions  Significantly higher mitigation potential by further increasing tree density and in humid systems Agroforestry can be combined with other practices such as water harvesting for additional impact.
  35. 35. Cereal production 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Per ha Per yield China US Kahrl et al. 2010 World Agroforestry Centre Back of envelope calculations Nitrogen use kg N / ha g N / t  > US$ 1.5 billion saved  Emissions ↓ by 32-67 Mt CO2e yr-1 (20-41% of economic potential for N management) If nitrogen use efficiency could be improved by 5 % points
  36. 36. Partnerships for Scaling Climate-smart Agriculture (P4S)
  37. 37. CSA Alliance • Finance working group • Policy working group • Knowledge working group (FAO & CCAFS) • UN SG Climate Summit in Sept  One element: CSA • Separate, but related:  CSA Science Conference March 2015 France
  38. 38. ResearchinDevelopment
  39. 39. CSA Country Profiles • Baseline assessment of current status of CSA • WB priorities: – engage donors and governments on CSA concept – identify entry points for research and investment
  40. 40. Scalable climate smart technologies….
  41. 41. 41 A MAC curve for CSA adaptation
  42. 42. 42
  43. 43. 43 Some “simple” indicators to start with.. Social Environmental Economic Food security Productivity Employment Eco-efficiency Benefit-generation Potential Product Historical Variability Adaptation Institutional Enhancement Erosion Land Use Changes Benefits Generation Potential Mitigation Mitigation
  44. 44. 44 Quantitative assessment of Farm-level CSA evidence (Meta-analysis) Practice Potential articles located (#) Articles matching selection criteria (#) Obs. in current database (#) Integrated nutrient management 162 57 1332 Agroforestry 129 44 414 Manure management 159 18 408 Pasture management 166 25 667 Total1 >3000 1276 - ICRAF, CIAT 1Includes a range of practices
  45. 45. 45 Crowdsourcing evidence for CSA and climate resilient practice Extendable Searchable relational database of evidence supplied by users Bioversity, CCAFS, & ICRAF www.agrobiodiversity.org/refarm/
  46. 46. CSA Compendium Informs CSA prioritization tool • Overcome barrier of lack of information about possible CSA options in a given context Informs future research agendas • Identify gaps in the literature based on CSA pillar, CSA practice, geographic region, etc. Knowledge Hub for CSA researchers and practitioners • Crowdsourcing to develop database, with reliability of data marked
  47. 47. CSA Prioritization Tool - Process Assess tradeoffs • for each practice between indicators of CSA pillars and social, economic, and environmental domains • between practices within a portfolio Pilots will be conducted starting mid-2014 in Mali, Viet Nam, and Colombia
  48. 48. 48
  49. 49. 49
  50. 50. Practice CBA Quality 1 Silvopastoral Systems 1.5 2.11 2 Efficient Use of Fertilizer 1.4 2.87 3 Improved Forages 1.3 2.85 4 Biogas 1.2 2.36 5 Grass-Legume Association 1.2 2.11 6 Water harvest structure 1.2 2.08 7 Silage, haylage and nutritional blocks 1 2.01 9 Early warning systems 1 1.89 Ranked List of Practices
  51. 51. Leb by Climate smart villages: Key agricultural activities for managing risks
  52. 52. Strong national engagement
  53. 53. www.aclimatecolombia.org
  54. 54. What defines yield? 51% of yield variation is caused by climate for rice
  55. 55. PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST 33 33 33 Above Normal Below 38 31 31 22 27 51 37 33 31 39 33 28 Agroclimatic Seasonal forecasting
  56. 56. Matching technologies with climate in space and time
  57. 57. Big opportunities for reducing water dependency
  58. 58. Pulling the pieces together Climateresilience Baseline Adapted technologies Adapted technologies + Climate- specific management Adapted technologies + Climate- specific management + Seasonal agroclimatic forecasts Adapted technologies + Climate- specific management + Seasonal agroclimatic forecasts + Efficient resource use + Enabling environment NAPs and NAMAs Climate smartness Adapted technologies + Climate-specific management + Seasonal agroclimatic forecasts + Efficient resource use
  59. 59. Global learning
  60. 60. • Challenge immense, but not insurmountable • CSA requires a comprehensive approach. Line up: – Technical – Financial – Policy • Two key factors for success: – Successfully building a business case for CSA – Addressing the constraints head on In summary….
  61. 61. 63 www.ccafs.cgiar.org sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins Twitter: @cgiarclimate

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