Presentation on success stories and challenges ahead to make global agriculture more climate smart. Brownbag presentation in the WorldBank on 15th May by Andy Jarvis from the CCAFS program of the CGIAR.

1. Rising to the challenge of establishing
a climate smart agriculture
Andy Jarvis, CCAFS

2. 2013
1. What is Climate Smart Agriculture?

3. 2013
Why is CSA important? - Adaptation
Global wheat
and maize
yields: response
to warming

4. 2013
Why is CSA important? – Food Security
Maíz
T-Max
T-Max
Yield Yield
Arroz
Climate drives
yield variation:
our systems are
sensitive to
climate, not
resilient to it

5. 2013
Why is CSA important? - Mitigation
13
Agriculture-related activities
are 19-29% of global
greenhouse gas emissions
(2010)
Agriculture production (e.g.,
fertilizers, rice, livestock,
energy)
Land-use change and
forestry including
drained peatlands
Industrial
processes
Waste
Percent, 100% = 50
gigatonnes CO2e per
year
Non-Ag
Energy
70
11
4 2

6. 2013
Why is CSA important? - Mitigation
“Business as usual” (BAU)
agriculture emissions
would comprise >70% of
allowable emissions to
achieve a 2°C world
Gt CO2e per year
12 15
36
70
2010 2050
(Business as usual)
2050
(2°C target)
Non-agricultural
emissions
Agricultural and land-
use change
emissions
>70%
48
85
21

7. 2013
2. There are significant successes in CSA

8. CSA options involve farms, landscapes,
food systems and services
landscape
crops
livestock
fish
food system
services
Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT

9. CSA options for landscapes
landscape
Ensure close links
between practice
and policy (e.g.
land use zoning)
Manage livestock
& wildlife over
wide areas
Increase cover of
trees and perennials
Restore degraded
wetlands, peatlands,
grasslands and watersheds
Create
diversity of
land uses
Harvest floods
& manage
groundwater
Address
coastal
salinity &
sea surges
Protect against large-
scale erosion

10. Example: Sustainable land management in
Ethiopia
Photos: W. Bewket, AAU
 190,000 ha rehabilitated
 98,000 households benefit
 Cut-and-carry feed for
livestock
 380,000 m3 waterways
 900,000 m3 compost

11. CHINA Paying for ecosystem services
 2.5 million
farmers paid to
set aside land
and plant trees
Sequestered over
700,000 tonnes of
carbon
2 million ha
rehabilitated
– reducing
erosion
 Increased yields

12. CSA options for crops & fields
crops
Crop diversification and
“climate-ready” species
and cultivars
Altering cropping
patterns & planting
dates
Better soil and nutrient
management e.g. erosion
control and micro-dosing
Improved water use
efficiency (irrigation
systems, water micro-
harvesting)
Monitoring &
managing new trends
in pests and diseases
Agroforestry,
intercropping &
on-farm
biodiversity

13. AFRICA Drought-tolerant maize boosts food security
 DTMA has developed 100
new varieties released
across 13 countries; 2
million smallholders
 Reduces
need to use
more land
 Resilience
to drought
 Yields up to 35%
more grain

14.  Sequestratio
n of carbon
in soil and
trees
NIGER Bringing back the Sahel’s ‘underground forest’
 5 million ha of land restored, over
200 million trees re-established
 Reduces
drought
impacts
 Additional half a
million tonnes of
grain per year

15. CSA options for livestock
livestock
High-quality diets that
increase conversion
efficiency and reduce
emissions
Herd management e.g.
sale or slaughter at
different ages
Changing patterns of
pastoralism and use of
water points
Livestock diversification
and “climate-ready”
species and breeds
Improved
pasture
management
Use of human
food waste for
pigs & chickens

16. Example: Forest land use and cattle
management in Brazil
Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT
45% higher stocking density
no increase in pasture area
better pasture quality
40% reduction in emissions
agriculture decoupled from
deforestation

17. CSA options for fisheries
& aquaculture
fish
Better physical
defences against
sea surges
Quota schemes
matched to
monitoring of
fish stocks
Greater energy
efficiency in
harvesting
Rehabilitation of
mangroves &
breeding grounds
Less dependence of
aquaculture on
marine fish feed
Reducing losses
and wastage

18. CSA options for food systems
food system
More creative
and efficient use
of by-products
Less energy-
intensity in
fertilizer
production
Improving resilience
of infrastructure for
storage & transport
(e.g. roads, ports)
Changing
diets
Greater
attention to
food safety
Reducing post-
harvest losses &
consumer wastage

19. Example: “Love Food Hate Waste”
in United Kingdom
 13 % less household food waste
 consumers saving $4 billion
 national water footprint down 4%
 3.6 million tonnes CO2eq less per year

20. CSA options for services
services
Monitoring &
data for food
security, climate &
ecosystems
Early warning
systems &
weather
forecasts
Mobile phone, radio
& other extension or
information for
farmers
Research that
links farmers &
science
Weather
insurance &
micro-finance
Financial transfers &
other “safety nets” for
climate shocks

21.  12 million
farmers & 40
different crops
insured
INDIA Weather-based insurance
 Reduces pressure
to bring more land
under cultivation
Reduces
risks
 Allows farmers to
access fertilizer
and better seed

22. Example: Seasonal weather forecasts in
Senegal
3 million farmers get forecasts
70 community radio stations
better food security outcomes

23. 2. But major
scaling up
is needed

24. 1.5
billion
people
depend on
Degraded
Land
USD 7.5 billion lost to
extreme Weather (2010)
1 billion more
People by 2030
1.4 billion living in
Poverty
14% more
Food needed per
decade
Nearly 1 billion
going Hungry

25. Target: Half a billion farmers practicing CSA
Mitigation targets?
Scholes et al., 2013. Agriculture and Climate
Change Mitigation in the Developing World
DC Targets (2035)
• 22% reduction in agricultural
emissions relative to the ‘business
as usual’ baseline
• 46% reduction in forestry and land
use change, relative to a projection
of current trends
Target: Half a billion with
enhanced adaptive capacity
So what are the targets?

26. Are these targets insurmountable?
“63 million customers per day,
so 500 million smallholders in
the next decade is easy!”
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Relative2012=100%
Food
demand
Grain yield
per ha
GDP
Cell phone
penetration
Global Harvest Initiative 2013
FAOSTAT
World Bank/Standard Chartered
GSMA/Deloitte
Sub-Saharan Africa

27. 27
Requires a comprehensive approach
• Partnerships: research and development, science
and policy, public and private
• Knowledge generation: practices/technologies,
programmatic elements (insurance, climate
information services)
• Work on CSA enablers: (sub-)National policies,
UNFCCC global process, donor agendas
• Incentive mechanisms: innovative finance, private
sector

28. 28
Capacity
Building
Gender
Engagement
1. CSA Alliance, World Bank, IFAD, Climate Finance
Orgs, Ministries
2. World Vision, National Meteorological Agencies,
Disaster Risk Agencies, Insurance Agencies
3. IIASA, FAO, Global Research Alliance for
Agricultural GHGs
4. Food security and climate adaptation agencies,
GFAR, CFS
• Multiple local partners (e.g. CARE,
Vi Mediae, PROLINNOVA, National
Insurance Company of India,
NARES)
Key
Working with partners to collect the
evidence and to change opinions and
worldviews
Working with partners to
understand what works
1&3: CSA Alliance, World Bank, IFAD, Green
Climate Fund, PROLINNOVA, climate finance orgs,
ministries
2: World Vision, National Meteorological
Agencies, Disaster Risk Agencies, Insurance
Agencies
Working with partners
to make it happen
Enhanced local
adaptation
planning
processes
Flagship 1: Climate –
smart agricultural
practices

29. Alternate-Wetting-and-Drying
(AWD)
30% water
20-50% GHG
Without compromising
yield
• Keep flooded for
1st 15 days and at
flowering
• Irrigate when
water drops to 15
cm below the
surface
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16 15.0
8.7
-42%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
tCO2-eq/ha*season
4.9
3.9
-20%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-22%-28%
6.0
4.7
6.4
4.6
Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying
Summer-
Autumn
Winter-
Spring
Sander et al. in press IRRI
AWDConventional

30. Addressing constraints
From national level…
to implementation at provincial level….
Slide by Bjoern Ole Sander, IRRI

31. Coffee-banana intercropping
0
1
2
3
Monocrops Intercrops
Arabica
(t/ha)
Banana
(tenth
t/ha)
Arabica systems
Arabica Banana
0
0.5
1
1.5
Monocrops Intercrops
Robusta
(t/ha)
Banana
(tenth
t/ha)
Robusta systems
Robusta Banana
2268 4307$ ha yr 1286 1770$ ha yr
More carbon in the
system
Diversification
Decreases drought impacts
Increased income
Enhanced food security

32. Fuente: Rincón, 2013
27
110
450
600
1000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Sabana nativa
Pasturas degradadas
Gramíneas/leguminosas Pastura con fertilizante
Pastura mejorada con maiz
Pastura despues de 3 años de rotación de maiz y soya
Animal live weight gain
(kg/ha/year)
Native savanna
Grass/legume pasture with fertilizer
Improved pasture planted with maize
Pasture after 3 years of maize-soybean rotation
Degraded pasture

33. What if…
- we spread agroforestry across Africa?
Analysis based on WRI 2013
Approximate area suitable for
Agroforestry in Africa:
~ 300 Million Ha
140+ Million People below
$1.25 per day

34. What if…
- we spread agroforestry across Africa?
Carbon sequestration potential (2t C/ha/yr.) above and below ground with low growth habit, low tree density and poor site quality, Nair et al. 2009
Underlying area 300 million ha, 285 million people, assumed increase in yields +50% (conservative), Analysis based on WRI 2013
PRODUCTIVITY
Multiple benefits include:
 Reduced soil erosion
 Additional diversified
income from wood
products
 Strengthened draught
resistance from increased
water storage
RESILIENCE
FOOTPRINT
 +615 Calories per
person/day for 140+
Million poor people
 Average yield
increase 50%
 Savings of over
6 Million tons of
synthetic fertilizerAdoption on
150 Million Ha
Adoption on
300 Million Ha
+44 Million Tons
+88 Million Tons
Food Production
Carbon Sequestration
- 1 Gt of CO2e
per year
- 2 Gt of CO2e
per year
Adoption on
150 Million Ha
Adoption on
300 Million Ha
 2 Gt Co2e storage per
year corresponds to
~1/3 of Global Direct
Ag Emissions
 Significantly higher
mitigation potential by
further increasing tree
density and in humid
systems
Agroforestry can be
combined with
other practices such
as water harvesting
for additional
impact.

35. Cereal production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Per ha Per yield
China
US
Kahrl et al. 2010 World Agroforestry Centre
Back of envelope calculations
Nitrogen use
kg N / ha
g N / t
 > US$ 1.5 billion saved
 Emissions ↓ by 32-67 Mt CO2e yr-1
(20-41% of economic potential for N management)
If nitrogen use efficiency could be
improved by 5 % points

36. Partnerships for Scaling
Climate-smart Agriculture (P4S)

37. CSA Alliance
• Finance working group
• Policy working group
• Knowledge working group (FAO & CCAFS)
• UN SG Climate Summit in Sept
 One element: CSA
• Separate, but related:
 CSA Science Conference March 2015 France

38. ResearchinDevelopment

39. CSA Country Profiles
• Baseline assessment of current status of CSA
• WB priorities:
– engage donors and governments on CSA concept
– identify entry points for research and investment

40. Scalable climate smart technologies….

41. 41
A MAC curve for CSA adaptation

42. 42

43. 43
Some “simple” indicators to start with..
Social Environmental Economic
Food
security
Productivity
Employment
Eco-efficiency
Benefit-generation
Potential
Product Historical
Variability
Adaptation
Institutional
Enhancement
Erosion
Land Use Changes Benefits Generation
Potential
Mitigation Mitigation

44. 44
Quantitative assessment of Farm-level CSA evidence
(Meta-analysis)
Practice
Potential articles
located (#)
Articles matching
selection criteria (#)
Obs. in current
database (#)
Integrated nutrient
management
162 57 1332
Agroforestry 129 44 414
Manure
management
159 18 408
Pasture
management
166 25 667
Total1 >3000 1276 -
ICRAF, CIAT
1Includes a range of practices

45. 45
Crowdsourcing evidence for CSA and climate
resilient practice
Extendable
Searchable
relational
database of
evidence
supplied by
users
Bioversity, CCAFS, & ICRAF
www.agrobiodiversity.org/refarm/

46. CSA Compendium
Informs CSA prioritization tool
• Overcome barrier of lack of information about
possible CSA options in a given context
Informs future research agendas
• Identify gaps in the literature based on CSA
pillar, CSA practice, geographic region, etc.
Knowledge Hub for CSA researchers and
practitioners
• Crowdsourcing to develop database, with
reliability of data marked

47. CSA Prioritization Tool - Process
Assess tradeoffs
• for each practice between
indicators of CSA pillars and
social, economic, and
environmental domains
• between practices within a
portfolio
Pilots will be conducted
starting mid-2014 in Mali,
Viet Nam, and Colombia

48. 48

49. 49

51. Practice CBA Quality
1 Silvopastoral Systems 1.5 2.11
2 Efficient Use of Fertilizer 1.4 2.87
3 Improved Forages 1.3 2.85
4 Biogas 1.2 2.36
5 Grass-Legume Association 1.2 2.11
6 Water harvest structure 1.2 2.08
7 Silage, haylage and nutritional blocks 1 2.01
9 Early warning systems 1 1.89
Ranked List of Practices

52. Leb by
Climate smart villages:
Key agricultural activities for managing risks

53. Strong national engagement

54. www.aclimatecolombia.org

55. What defines yield?
51% of yield variation is caused by climate for rice

56. PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST
33
33
33
Above
Normal
Below
38
31
31
22
27
51
37
33
31
39
33
28
Agroclimatic
Seasonal
forecasting

57. Matching technologies
with climate in space
and time

58. Big opportunities for
reducing water
dependency

59. Pulling the pieces together
Climateresilience
Baseline
Adapted
technologies
Adapted
technologies
+
Climate-
specific
management
Adapted
technologies
+
Climate-
specific
management
+
Seasonal
agroclimatic
forecasts
Adapted
technologies
+
Climate-
specific
management
+
Seasonal
agroclimatic
forecasts
+
Efficient
resource use
+
Enabling
environment
NAPs and
NAMAs
Climate smartness
Adapted
technologies
+
Climate-specific
management
+
Seasonal
agroclimatic
forecasts
+
Efficient
resource use

60. Global learning

62. • Challenge immense, but not
insurmountable
• CSA requires a comprehensive
approach. Line up:
– Technical
– Financial
– Policy
• Two key factors for success:
– Successfully building a business case
for CSA
– Addressing the constraints head on
In summary….

63. 63
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