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Adapting Agriculture to climate change in Africa: the answers of science


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Rachid Moussadek (INRA Morocco)

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Adapting Agriculture to climate change in Africa: the answers of science

  1. 1. 26/10/2018 1 Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change in Africa: the Answers from Science Johannesburg, October, 25th, 2018 Rachid Moussadek & Rachid Mrabet INRA Morocco Key threats to soils in Africa Two thirds of Africa’s arable lands could be lost by 2025 because of the negative impact of climate change. Soil: At the Heart of Water and Food Security Nexus Soil erosion, loss of soil organic carbon, and nutrient imbalance (depletion) The continent loses 3% of agricultural GDP annually from soil and nutrient loss on farmlands
  2. 2. 26/10/2018 2 Vast majority of Africa’s farms are small and family operated Mean size (ha) % < 2 ha Sub-Saharan Africa 2.4 69 West Asia - North Africa 4.9 65 South Asia 1.4 78 East Asia 1.0 79 SE Asia 1.8 57 Central America 10.7 63 South America 111.7 36 Europe 32.3 30 USA 178.4 4 Eastwood et al., 2009 Africa has 33 million family farms of less than 2 hectares, accounting for more than 65 % of farms Women are the backbone of agriculture in Africa Only 3% of farms have more than 10 hectares Yield Gaps Persist ERS (2013) Yield reduction in Africa due to past soil erosion may range from 2 to 40%, with a mean loss of 8.2% for the continent.
  3. 3. 26/10/2018 3 Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Productivity Are Likely to Be Strongly Negative Overall – and African Agriculture Highly Vulnerable Source: UNEP/GRID-ArendalMaps and Graphics Library, Wheeler 2011 Projected Changes in Agricultural Productivity by 2080 Agricultural productivity will come under pressure from Climate Change, with large parts of Africa expected to experience downward yield pressure of above 15%. Sub-Saharan Africa will be hit particular hard. It is estimated that across Africa maize yields will drop by 5% and wheat yields by 17% before 2050. Knox et al. 2012 Future impacts vary by region Need for Adaptation Crop-level adaptations increase simulated yields by an average of 7–15%, with adaptations more effective for wheat and rice than maize. Challinor et al. 2014 Consensus on yield decreases is stronger in tropical than temperate regions,
  4. 4. 26/10/2018 4 CLIMATE CHANGE AND YIELD REDUCTION IN AFRICA BY 2050 Crop Region Reduction (%) Reference Maize Africa 10 Jones and Thornton (2003) Food crops West Africa 11 Roudier et al. (2011) Food crops Sahel 18 Roudier et al. (2011) Maize SSA 5 Chijioke et al. (2011) Wheat SSA 22 Chijioke et al. (2011) Rice SSA 2 Chijioke et al. (2011) Yam/ Sweet potato SSA 12 Chijioke et al. (2011) Cassava SSA 8 Chijioke et al. (2011) Sorghum/ Millet SSA (+1-2) Chijioke et al. (2011) • The effect of CO2 fertilization is less on C-4 crops • Inter-annual variability in yield will increase African Agriculture at Cross Road • Double its production by 2030 and triple it by 2050. • Zero hunger by 2025 (food available needs to be increased by 47 percent of current demand.) • Developing agriculture while protecting the continent’s natural resources depends on sustainable intensification. • Effective and sustainable intensification efforts must be geared to family farmers. • Local markets are the main and most dynamic destination for agricultural producers.
  5. 5. 26/10/2018 5 Climate Resilient Agriculture in Africa Coupling and hybridizing – Sustainable Intensification (SI): 4 for 100 per year of increased production is necessary – Sustainable expansion of croplands to increase by 1.5 percent or by 38.9 million hectares. 60% of the planet’s unexploited arable lands are found in Africa, but land must be protected from degradation and exhaustion High potential in irrigated agriculture Rainfed agriculture produces 90% of SSA’s staple food needs... ...and irrigated supply provides only 5%
  6. 6. 26/10/2018 6 African (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions « (I)NDC analysis »: Adaptation measures CSA= Climate Smart Agriculture SLM = Sustainable Land Management AF = Agroforestery AE = Agro-ecology Plans and policies are in progress for widening appropriation by farmers of resilience 21 20 15 85 21 20 15 50 0 20 40 60 80 100 CSA AF AE SLM Countries Projects Richards et al., 2016 Agroforestry systems: Cost-effective solutions to Climate Resilience Beyond significant cocoa production, Cocoa agroforestry systems in Cameroun provide wood, fruits, medicine and a variety of ecological services. REDD+ or AFOLU CONCEPTS Mbow et al., 2013 Maize Growing under Faidherbia Albida Trees in Tanzania
  7. 7. 26/10/2018 7 Agroforestry and Soil Carbon Sequestration Rates kg C ha−1 yr−1 World Bank 2012 Conservation Agriculture (CA) is an approach to managing agro-ecosystems for improved and sustained productivity, increased profits and food security while preserving and enhancing the resource base and the environment ① Minimizing soil disturbance, consistent with sustainable production. ② Maximizing soil surface cover by managing crops, pastures and crop residues. ③ Stimulating biological activity through crop rotations, cover crops and integrated nutrient and pest management.
  8. 8. 26/10/2018 8 Conservation agriculture holds great promise for Africa Conservation agriculture holds great promise for Africa Kassam et al, 2017 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 AreainHectars Year Conservation Agriculture • Yield increase • Reduced Gaps • Reduced production costs • Farmer incomes • Resource efficiency • Energy efficiency • Drought mitigation • Erosion reduction • Ecosystem services • High biodiversity Coping technologies to lower/sporadic rainfall, floods and rising temperatures. 2.7 million ha 157 million ha in the world Closing the yield gaps with CA Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia, Kenya and Tanzania Corbeels, M., et al., 2013 Africa will never feed itself without conservation agriculture Increased productivity (for small, medium and large scale farmers). Savings in labour (up to 60%). yield CT = 0,0033 Rainfall + 1,4116 R2 = 0,1823 yield NT = 0,0028 Rainfall + 2,01 R2 = 0,1457 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Rainfall (mm) GrainYield(Mg/ha) No-tillage Conventional Tillage Mrabet, 2011 Morocco
  9. 9. 26/10/2018 9 Internalizing benefits from environmental preservation Carbon sequestration with CA Ben Moussa Machraoui et al. 2010 Tunisia Sub-Sahara Africa: 0.28 and 0.96 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 Powlson et al. 2016 Potential SOC fixed annually by CA compared to systems based on soil tillage in Africa 145 Mt C per year = 533 Mt of CO2 per year Almost 3 times Europe’s potential! c o2 González-Sánchez et al., 2018
  10. 10. 26/10/2018 10 Zai Pit indigenous system Young sorghum grown in Zai pits in Burkina Faso(©FAO) Figure1: Zai Pit System West African countries: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger but also in Kenya - Nigeria African Innovation: the key to farming system adaptation Combining Zai & Fertilizer In Niger, planting millet in Zai with inorganic fertilizer multiplied the yield by four (from 144 kg/ha to 659 kg/ha) – and by ten in a good rainfall year (1,486 kg/ha). Figure1: Zai Pit System
  11. 11. 26/10/2018 11 CHANGE IN 2050 IN THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE AT RISK OF HUNGER, RELATIVE TO THE BASELINE SCENARIO, AFTER ADOPTION OF IMPROVED AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGIES Rosegrant et al. (2014)Zero-tillage is the best option for wheat Trade-Offs Between Profitability and Carbon Sequestration of SLM Technologies World Bank 2012
  12. 12. 26/10/2018 12 Science Based SLM up-scaling: Gateways for expanding knowledge Nexus Thinking Vertical thinking and thematic research Integrated multi-component approach Nexus Approach Time & Space Scales Livelihoods Trade-offs Pathways Policy shifts Ecological functions Revision and transformation of old concepts Broadening scopes and objectives From participative to partnership process Plot Research Pilot & Plateforme Research & Development KEY MESSAGES Adapting agriculture to CC – Enforcing research (long term SLM trials), technology transfer and extension systems to generate SLM knowledge, developments and innovations – Developing knowledge and access to robust technologies and soil information as well as enhancing skills for all stakeholders. – Developing and marketing indigenous knowledge related to SLM. – Identifying the policy space for agriculture resilience: defining and allocating responsibilities. – Sustaining links among governments, research and extension offices, NGOs and civil society, private sector and farmers communities. – Implementing national and regional level efforts to extend and scale-up CSA, SFM and AF…
  13. 13. 26/10/2018 13 Thank you Adapting Agriculture to Climate change in Africa: the answers from science Rachid Moussadek & Rachid Mrabet INRA Morocco