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Adaptation 2


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Presentation from CCAFS Science Workshop, Bonn, 11th June 2011

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Adaptation 2

  1. 1. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK for INVESTIGATING ADEQUACY OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES<br />CLIMATE DRIVER <br />(SLR, Drought, Flood)<br />Factors that buffer/accelerate impacts (Matrix at each geographical timescale: global, nat, sub-nat, local)<br /><ul><li>Biophysical (eg: mangrove being decimated)
  2. 2. Institutional (no land tenure system)
  3. 3. Technological (a dam)
  4. 4. Economic (market in place)
  5. 5. Social (AIDS? Safety nets?)
  6. 6. Policy
  7. 7. Culture
  8. 8. …</li></ul>Effects of Climate Impacts & resulting Adaptation strategies on:<br /><ul><li>Governance
  9. 9. Livelihoods (food security)
  10. 10. Gender relations and social equity
  11. 11. Resource Degradation
  12. 12. Biogeochemical cycles (feedback loops)</li></li></ul><li>Which strategies enhance or retard resilience of small-scale rural producers to climate change?<br />Develop/test methodologies for assessing coping and adaptation strategies and their multiple outcomes for food security, environment and livelihoods at the community level<br />Evidence-based assessment of coping/adaptation strategies to assess effectiveness of interventions<br />
  13. 13. How to do it?<br />Step 1 (by Sept end): Meta-analysis of:<br />CCAFS baseline surveys of 5000 hhs<br /> literature of factors associated with coping/adaptation strategies<br /> gap analysis of methods<br />Step 2 (early 2012): Workshop to identify pilot studies in CCAFS regions and refine methodology based on meta-analysis<br />Step 3 (mid 2012): Pilot study of communities to develop methodologies (small number)<br />Step 4 (end of project): Methods and policy recommendations<br />
  14. 14. Criteria for selecting pilot communities (small number as function of $$$)<br />Cover 3 CCAF regions<br />Use communities/villages where baseline CCAFS has surveyed social capital<br />Don’t duplicate other studies<br />Cover range of production systems and climate shocks<br />Communities where history of adaptation<br />….<br />
  15. 15. Pilot study communities<br />Disciplines include:<br />Climate, adaptation, land use/land cover, institutional/governance, anthropology<br />Development, agriculture applications<br />Methods include:<br />Community vulnerability and capacity assessments (participatory community, focus groups, vulnerability capacity assessment, household surveys)<br />Landscape changes (remote sensing)<br /> climate historical data<br /> changes in yield/cultivars/traits<br />trade-off and synergy analysis<br />
  16. 16. What is novel about this proposal?<br />Empirical testing of methods to evaluate multiple consequences of coping/adaptation strategies on food security, environment, and livelihoods, including:<br />societal consequences of current adaptation strategies, including on food security, gender relations/social equity, local governance<br />feedbacks to biogeochemical cycles and land use<br />Development of climate-resilient and climate-smart policy recommendations to enhance adaptation at the local level<br />Generalizable methods to assess rural producer strategies and their viability with changing climate <br />
  17. 17. Truly interdisciplinary (really!)<br />
  18. 18. Volunteers for meta-analysis<br />Overall: Arame Tall, Ruth DeFries<br />Baseline surveys:<br />Florence Kyazze, HeznomMogake (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania), Bharat P. Upadhyay (Nepal)<br />Literature review:<br />AriellaHelfgott, AhsanUddin Ahmed, CheikhMbow (Senegal)<br />Methods gap analysis:<br />SharmindNeelormi, AhsanUddin Ahmed, AriellaHelfgott, Ruth DeFries (RS)<br />
  19. 19. Unresolved<br />Partners?<br />Research community (PECS?)<br />Community-level partners and stakeholders<br /><ul><li>Funders??</li>