This document explores resilience thinking in the context of river basins, specifically through case studies from the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. It outlines approaches for assessing resilience, challenges within ecological and social systems, and the importance of community engagement and multidisciplinary knowledge. Lessons learned emphasize the need for time, cooperation, and continuous effort to achieve sustainable management and transformation of these complex systems.

1. People, food and water – can resilience thinking help? Case studies from the Murray Darling Basin, Australia Paul Ryan Brian Walker (and many others)

2. Outline Overview of approach to assessing resilience Case studies Lessons learned

3. The take home message Resilience thinking is useful for thinking about the future of river basins/catchments because; complex systems of people and ecosystems these systems have limits resilience thinking helps identify those limits and work out how to stay within them (or move to a pathway within limits) ultimately helps to reduce complexity to focus on the underlying (usually slow changing) problems not on the fast

5. Our work Theory Practice Learning by doing (with many mistakes!) Case studies Production – mixed dry land/irrigated systems Production – dry land systems Cultural systems – pastoral, tourism, coastal and marine Learn Expert driven Community driven Partnerships

7. Assessing resilience Work through 3 main steps; Describing the system Structure – scales, boundaries, important bits, governance/institutions Values/importance - goods and services, threats and shocks Historical profile – events and responses System dynamics Specified resilience - resilience of specific parts, thresholds, feedbacks General resilience – system coping capacity Adaptive cycles Options for intervention

8. The Murray Darling Basin Australia’s food bowl 2 million people

10. Challenges Degradation issues –, water quality and quantity, salinity, biodiversity loss, soil health Social issues – declining terms of trade in ag, town/community viability

12. Challenges Degradation issues – salinity, water quality and quantity, biodiversity loss, soil health Social issues – declining terms of trade in ag, town/community viability $Billions spent = ? Crosses 5 States - institutional/policy reform Changing social values

13. Case study 1. Goulburn Broken Catchment 2.8 million ha 200,000 people Significant contribution to flow of MDB Irrigation plains, dryland plains and foothills, forested public land highlands Ramsar Wetland High value production

16. Approach to understanding resilience Motivation - research High capacity Close engagement with managers, community leaders and some experts Significant knowledge base Detailed analysis and modelling

17. Learning and outcomes Scientific publications

18. farm/landscape landscape/catchment (GB region) state/nation Shocks biophysical economic social values (e.g. environment vs. agriculture) – water allocations (10) farm financial viability (7) size of dairy & fruit processing sectors (9) water table depth and area salinised (2) water infrastructure state (8) riverine ecosystem condition (5) native vegetation cover and biodiversity (4) tree cover and water table equilibrium (E/T) (1) climate shocks price shocks changes in markets diseases Soil acidity (3) river condition (6) 10 thresholds in the Goulburn-Broken catchment

19. Learning and outcomes Confirmed and challenged thinking Some gradual adoption of resilience ideas into subsequent planning and evaluation Chris and Vanessa here!

20. Case study 2. Resilience and Catchment Action Plans 2 catchments in NSW Irrigation (cotton), dryland cropping/grazing rangelands Ramsar Wetlands

21. Approach to understanding resilience Motivation - policy drivers National State “ to achieve an environment that is healthier, better protected, well managed, resilient and provides essential ecosystem services in a changing climate” “ healthy, productive and resilient landscapes”

22. Approach to understanding resilience Policy requirements Embed resilience assessment in strategic planning process must have whole of government support must engage the community must be based on best available science But! limited capacity, limited government support (in fact some parts hostile!) short time frames

24. Process in practice Resilience assessment workshops to engage agency and community

25. Process in practice Resilience assessment workshops to engage agency and community Backed by minimal new analysis – mainly existing material Mainly community, agency staff and some experts

26. Developed conceptual models to; Build shared knowledge Identify desired states (good vs bad condition) Identify key controlling variables, thresholds Identify points for intervention and specific management actions <S&T>

30. Learning and outputs Catchment Action Plan’s based on resilience thinking (a first for Australia!) Major evidence base about system (structure, process, linkages) Scientific, management and socially defined thresholds New skills and capacity

31. Learning and outputs Failed to develop a more complete systems understanding (time, capacity) Increased research interest in systems, thresholds etc Some organisational ‘cultural’ change – long way to go!

32. Case study 3. Wakool - Resilience, Adaptation and Transformation Motivation – community driven interest in deliberate change Irrigation dependent – rice, milk Drought, policy change, declining communities

33. Approach to assessing resilience Resilience assessment supporting social learning process Community driven, agency and expert support Learning by doing

34. Expanding stakeholder engagement Continuing spiral of engage, analyse, reflect, learn Aiming to spark and nurture innovations that transform the system from the bottom up.

35. Learning and outputs (to date) ‘living’ resilience assessment Community Strategic Plan being developed

36. What have we learnt from these case studies About the value of resilience concepts: System ‘awareness’ Defines the limits Identifies key structures and processes Builds management knowledge and skills; Key points for intervention Identifies underlying (often slow) causes of undesirable change rather than the symptoms (usually fast)

37. About the assessment process Creates shared knowledge - integrates many types of knowledge (traditional, local, expert, agency) Shared knowledge about problems and solutions Overlapping knowledge across scales

38. As conceptual (descriptive) or quantitative as capacity, resources and information allows Doesn’t really matter where you start but it helps to have a clear purpose/end point in mind

39. BUT….. It takes time, it’s not easy Requires on going effort Turning learnings into on ground change Small steps, project – program Requires cultural change in management agencies (5 yrs? 10yrs? 100…..)

40. So…… You need champions You need a vehicle (a plan, policy, threat ) You need coordination support – manage information You need multiple knowledge's You need some expert guidance at critical points You need to set expectation – there is no silver bullet You need lots of patience