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The AgMIP coordinated global and regional assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security


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Presentation by Cynthia Rosenzweig (NASA GISS) and John Antle (Oregon State Univ.) on April 11, 2016 in Washington, DC

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The AgMIP coordinated global and regional assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security

  1. 1. India USA Kenya Sri Lanka Cynthia Rosenzweig John Antle NASA GISS Oregon State University Climate Impact on Food and Nutrition Systems: Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments IFPRI | Washington, DC | April 11, 2016 The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security
  2. 2. Paris Agreement COP21 “Recognizing the fundamental priority of safeguarding food security and ending hunger, and the particular vulnerabilities of food production systems to the adverse impacts of climate change”
  3. 3. AgMIP Mission 3 Near Arusha, Tanzania Provide effective science-based agricultural decision-making models and assessments of climate variability and change and sustainable farming systems to achieve local-to-global food security
  4. 4. 4 Worldwide Science Community 2nd Global Oct 20111st Global Oct 2010 Sub-Saharan Africa #3 South Asia #3 3rd Global Oct 2012 4th Global Oct 2013 5th Global Feb 2015
  5. 5. Partnerships 5Some of the many partners and donor institutions involved in AgMIP
  6. 6. Phase 2 (2015-2020) Science Approach 6 Rosenzweig et al., 2013 AgForMet Multi-model assessments Track 1: Develop/Test NextGen Agricultural Systems Models Track 2: Conduct Multi-Model Assessments for Sustainable Farming Systems and Climate-Responsive Agriculture AgMIP Sentinel Sites Platinum Gold Silver Climate Responsive
  7. 7. 3 Focus Areas 7
  8. 8. 3 Focus Areas 8
  9. 9. Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments 9 and livestock
  10. 10. Ensemble of models predicted yields accurately True under poorly and well calibrated conditions Most individual models did not predict all sites well across varying environments 1 0 Asseng et al. 2013 Nature Climate Change Ensembles better than individual models 27 wheat models
  11. 11. 11 • Farming systems • Transdisciplinary: climate/biophysical/ socio-economic • Multi-scale: field, farm, region, global data and models • Multiple climate and crop models • Distributional results: impacts on poverty AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment – 5 Attributes Antle et al., 2015
  12. 12. ─ Lower latitudes are more vulnerable to climate change ─ [CO2] effects key to understanding future impacts and uncertainty ─ Models that incorporate realistic nitrogen see significantly less gains from [CO2] effects at present-day fertilizer levels 1 2 Global Agricultural Productivity End-of-century (2070- 2099) climate impact. Median of 7 GGCMs and 5 GCMs. Hatched areas indicate model agreement in sign Rosenzweig et al., 2014 PNAS 111(9): 3268-3273
  13. 13. Uncertainty Cascade 13 Effects of climate change on agricultural prices (S3-S6 results in 2050 relative to results without climate change in 2050) AgMIP Global Economic s Model Intercomparison 10 Global Economics Models, 2 GCMs, 2 crop models Von Lampe et al., Agricultural Economics, 2013 Climate change is projected to exert upward pressure on agricultural prices, but with large uncertainty that is being connected to model approaches S3 S4 S5 S6 GCMs GGCMs Model uncertainty GEM > GGCM > GCM
  14. 14. CGRA Core Risk and Resilience Framing 14
  15. 15. • Stakeholders: yes the climate is changing, yes there will be impacts – what should we do? – Must evaluate mitigation and adaptation options for current or likely future systems • Mitigation: climate justice and impacts on the most vulnerable • Resilient, Sustainable Adaptation – Reduce vulnerability to long-term change and short- term weather variability & extremes – Economically, environmentally & socially sustainable Regional Assessment: Stakeholder Perspective 15
  16. 16. AgMIP Regional Assessments 16
  17. 17. Tranformative solutions: Nkayi, Zimbabwe 17 AgMIP phase 1: Incremental change insufficient to lift people out of poverty AgMIP phase 2: Transformative change more drastic solutions for improving farming systems
  18. 18. Vulnerability, global-regional linkages, and uncertainty 18 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Vulnerability(%householdsvulnerabletoloss) Average Economic Impact (% of farm income) Q1- Zimbabwe Q2- Zimbabwe Q1-Senegal Q2 -Senegal Zimbabwe: productivity & prices from stakeholders & local research team Senegal: productivity & prices from global model and scenario
  19. 19. Communication 19
  20. 20. • Coordinated global and regional assessments with consistent protocols and scenarios • Mitigation and resilient adaptation of major agricultural systems – extreme weather events and related economic shocks (food prices) as well as long-term changes • Improved food security and nutrition indicators – beyond aggregate calorie availability – access, utilization and stability of key nutrients at regional and household levels CGRA Outcomes 20
  21. 21. 21 For protocols, up-to-date events and news, and to join AgMIP listserve –