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Climate Change Research Needs: Sectoral Impact Analysis, Vulnerability & Risk Assessment

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Climate Change Research Needs: Sectoral Impact Analysis, Vulnerability & Risk Assessment
LCCAP Orientation Meeting with SUCs
16 March 2017 | Recto Room, Senate of the Philippines

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http://www.climate.gov.ph/

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Climate Change Research Needs: Sectoral Impact Analysis, Vulnerability & Risk Assessment

  1. 1. Climate Change Research Needs: Sectoral Impact Analysis, Vulnerability & Risk Assessment Rosa T. Perez, Ph. D. Member, NPTE Climate Change Commission LCCAP Orientation Meeting with SUCs 16 March 2017 Recto Room, Senate of the Philippines
  2. 2. NPTE Priority R&D Topics for 2017 1. Common DRR-CCA Methodology. 2. Climate change modeling at regional and national level (town/level) 3. Attribution of impacts to anthropogenic climate change 4. Sectoral and integrated impact studies and risk and vulnerability assessments (national, riverbasin/island-wide, local) – Heat/drought- and flood- resistant crops – – Freshwater enhancement technology – Climate change and human security – Water, energy and carbon. – Climate Resiliency of local communities in different ecosystems – Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Hydro-meteorological Hazards–
  3. 3. NPTE Priority R&D Topics for 2017 7. Risk-sharing mechanisms – Index-Based Insurance – 8. Solar Radiation Management – 9. Coastal & Oceanic Adaptation : Science & Technology Research Instruction Development Education 10.Science-based blue economy (BEST H2O STEWARDS)
  4. 4. The Basic Adaptation Planning Process • The systematic process deals with all questions relevant for planning adaptation. • Going one step at a time avoids mental blocks due to the over-complex challenge. Four steps: (1) Assess Risk/Impacts/Vulnerability (2) Identify adaptation options (3) Select adaptation measures (4) Develop an M&E framework
  5. 5. Vulnerability Assessment 1. Common DRR-CCA Methodology. V= f(E, S, AC) Source: IPCC- WG2, AR4
  6. 6. Understanding Vulnerability V= f(E, S, AC)
  7. 7. CCA and DRR
  8. 8. Reconciling Vulnerability and Risk
  9. 9. Stressors: Climate variability and change State of the system concern Harm to the system Generic Scheme Sensitivity Susceptibility Adaptive Capacity IPCC AR4 Exposure Vulnerability V=f(E,S,AC) Exposure Vulnerability Hazard Impact/Risk R=f(H E V) IPCC AR5 Reconciling Vulnerability and Risk
  10. 10. Planning Horizons Time Scales Relevant for Development
  11. 11. Defining adaptation Greenhouse gas emissions Climate change impacts Global climate change: change in mean global temperature, changes in regional temperature, rainfall, pressure, circulation, etc. Mitigation: reduce emissions, reducing magnitude of CC Adaptation: reduce vulnerability to CC impacts, reduce losses Adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, that moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies Source: UNDP
  12. 12. In reality, adaptation stands for a continuum of approaches. Often, ‘adaptation’ activities are linked to more than one category
  13. 13. 1 Addressing Drivers of Vulnerability 2 Building Response Capacity 3 Managing Climate Risk 4 Confronting Climate Change Increase individual and community buffer Build robust systems for problem-solving Make use of climate information in decision-making Respond directly to CC- related threats Risk of maladaptation Risk of maladaptation Outside the development comfort zone Vulnerability Focus Impact Focus A continuum from development to climate change Need for Climate Information Normal Development Direct Adaptation Measures
  14. 14. Types of adaptation efforts • “Serendipitous” Adaptation – Activities undertaken to achieve development objectives incidentally achieve adaptation objectives. – The adaptation components of a given activity may be noticed or emphasized only after the fact. • Climate-Proofing of Ongoing Development Efforts – Activities added to an ongoing development initiative to ensure its success under a changing climate. – Adaptation serves as means to achieve development ends.
  15. 15. Types of adaptation efforts • Discrete Adaptation – Activities undertaken specifically to achieve climate adaptation objectives. – Development activities as means to achieve adaptation ends. • Confronting Climate Change – Actions focus almost exclusively on addressing impacts associated with climate change • typically targeting climate risks that are clearly outside historic climate variability • little bearing on risks that stem from anything other than anthropogenic climate change
  16. 16. Framing Adaptation 1 Addressing Drivers of Vulnerability 2 Building Response Capacity 3 Managing Climate Risk 4 Confronting Climate Change Increase individual and community buffer Build robust systems for problem-solving Make use of climate information in decision-making Respond directly to CC- related threats Example Diversification of livelihood strategies in areas vulnerable to flooding Example Participatory reforestation in the watershed to combat flood-induced landslide Teaching farmers to collect climate data and integrate it into their planting decisions Managing coral reefs in response to widespread coral bleaching Vulnerability Focus Impact Focus Need for Climate Information
  17. 17. CC Detection and Attribution
  18. 18. CC Detection and Attribution
  19. 19. “Cascading” impacts of climate change from physical climate through ecosystems on people can now be detected along chains of evidence.
  20. 20. Climate Change Impact Chains Climate Change Source: Adelphi/EURAC 2014. Impacts on Ecosystems (groundwater recharge, availability of fertile soil and biodiversity) Impacts on Ecosystem Services (provision of food and water) Impacts on Natural Resource Extraction (agriculture, fishery, forestry) Impacts on Natural Resource Processing (industry and services) Impacts on the Social Sphere (individual, societal groups) CC impacts on ecosystem services and natural resources directly affect people’s livelihoods in developing countries Changing temperatures & rainfall
  21. 21. Philippines REGION 8 PROVINCE Eastern Samar Borongan City ARCs ADAPTATION MEASURES • Improve coco-cropping system (e.g. introduction of livestock, forage) • Replanting using disease and climate- resistant variety • Pest control • Cover copping/mulching to conserve soil moisture • Value-adding of coco products VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACT • Loss of crops and properties due to flooding •  copra production yield •  household income POTENTIAL BIOPHYSICAL IMPACT • Excessive rainfall causing diseases of the fruit and leaves • Die-off from water- logging • Desiccation of fronds and shedding of young nuts from drought • Increasing incidence of pest and diseases • Uprooted, fallen trees from severe storm winds • Yield variability System of Interest SOCIETY CLIMATE STIMULUS* •  Seasonal mean temperature • Drier dry season (drought), wetter wet season (floods) •  intensity and frequency of heavy rains CC Impact Chain for Coconut Farming ARC Coco Producing Households Coconut Production  Exposure  Potential Impact  Adaptive Capacity  Vulnerability  Sensitivity High vulnerability of small coconut farms and coco-producing farmers ADAPTIVE CAPACITY • Agri-business potential • Xx km of farm roads • Limited training for coco farming technologies • Farmers associations exist • ESSU can provide TA
  22. 22. - END – Thank You !

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