1. Species at risk protection:
Understanding links with
ecosystem integrity
Jeremy T. Kerr
Department of Biology
University of Ottawa

2. Outline
Very brief introduction to two aspects of global change
Land use change and species endangerment in Canada
Ecosystem integrity and species at risk challenges:
land use perspectives
climate change: a new axis for ecosystem integrity

3. Climate change
1. Initial observations
2. Subsequent model
development and testing
3. Powerful, unequivocal
secondary predictions.
Each dataset uses longterm data

4. Land use change
Habitat loss is globally pervasive and a leading cause of
extinction. There are few wilderness areas left.
Anthropocene: reshaping global energy and material
cycling to serve human needs. Our footprints are deep.
http://geoserver.isciences.com/DataBlog/?p=25

5. Causes of species endangerment
Agricultural land uses are primary
determinants of terrestrial Kerr & Deguise 2004
species endangerment.
Kerr & Cihlar 2003

6. Is there enough habitat for
species at risk to recover?
Many terrestrial species
(n = 243) have little remaining
habitat, based on satellite-based
land use/land cover data for
Canada.
(Kerr & Deguise 2004 Ecol. Lett.)
There is little
remaining habitat for
many species, limiting
recovery potential.

7. Can we restore habitat to
permit species at risk
recovery?
• If habitat losses reflect urbanization, restoration will
be challenging and more frequently impractical.

8. • Agricultural land uses are vastly more extensive than
urban areas ...
• ... but
• ... urban areas are concentrated in Canada’s
biodiversity hotspots, so urban impact is
disproportionate.
% intersection of agriculture with SAR range % intersection of urban with SAR range
Coristine and Kerr, 2011

9. Consequences of habitat loss?
`
After Kerr & Cihlar, Ecol. Appl. 2004
Kerr & Cihlar 2004

10. • Restoring habitat in agricultural areas: the first frontier for
land-based species at risk recovery.
• HOW:
• Determine economic value of agricultural lands based on
total agricultural capital or reported agricultural income.
• Determine conservation value by counting numbers of SAR
that were historically present in each “planning unit” across
Canada.
• Maximize conservation benefits while minimizing economic
costs of accessing lands to begin restoration work.

11. • Solution for Total agricultural capital:
all species included in “new” protected areas.
• Priorities for restoration and subsequent
stewardship in the context of a respectful dialog
with private landowners.

12. All analyzed species benefit
Few species benefit
Replace the capital
Replace the income
(annually)
• Targeting the least profitable agri-lands for
restoration permits larger benefits per $.

13. • Canada’s habitat loss challenge:
• 1. Many species have virtually no remaining habitat
• 2. Agricultural land conversions are vastly more extensive than urban
areas.
• 3. We can accomplish a lot with relatively small expense and effort.
Landsat imagery for the best
remaining area in Carolinian
Canada

14. Climate changes
Changes in minimum winter temperature.

15. Climate change and EI
These changes represent a different threat to ecosystem
integrity. Is this threat relevant to species conservation?
Spatial models can
predict range shifts
through time
Kerr et al. 2007. Science.

16. • Predictive ability of projections are
good through the 20th century.
• Models of some species are
unreliable through time.
• We can predict geographical
responses to climate & land use
change.
Kharouba, Algar, Kerr, Ecology, 2009
• Predicting climate change impacts on
Canadian biodiversity must take a
multi-species approach.

17. “Edge”
populations of
today are the
core populations
of tomorrow.

18. Climate change and
ecosystem integrity
For some species groups, geographical responses to
climate change have been dramatic.
Species are not tracking climate change fully where
climate is changing fastest (Bedford et al. 2012).
Climate change diminishes ecosystem integrity and
its effects must be mitigated as part of conservation
and restoration efforts for SAR.

19. Engagement: increasing
public stake in conservation
Can keep track of species and map their distributions.
And observations from an engaged public are
providing insights into the effects of climatic “mood
swings”.

20. ebutterfly.ca
a new way to see how butterflies are affected by
different aspects of environmental change
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21. Conclusions
Ecosystem integrity is altered by land use change and
climate change.
Both climate and land use changes exert large,
predictable impacts on biotic intactness. Failure to
mitigate negative consequences causes extinctions.
Expanding public engagement with conservation
increases momentum for conservation and the political
costs of inaction or reversal of past protections.

22. Acknowledgments
Carolyn Farquhar and the Institute of the Environment
for organizing this conference.
To the many members of my research group and
collaborators around the world: Max Larrivee, Shawn
Leroux, Heather Kharouba, Adam Algar, especially.
Discovery Grant support through NSERC.