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North American Clean Economy 2050
B L A S L . P É R E Z H E N R Í Q U E Z
F O U N D I N G D I R E C T O R , C A L I F O R ...
Agenda
- R E S E A R C H A G E N D A
- P R O J E C T @ S T A N F O R D
- “ S T A T E O F P L A Y ” O F C L I M A T E A N D...
Towards a Prosperous and Clean North American
Economy: My Research Agenda
North America as a Global Powerhouse
THE NORTH AMERICAN GLOBAL POWERHOUSE
BY GEORGE P. SHULTZ
WALL STREET JOURNAL
THURSDAY...
Genesis of Silicon Valley: Collaboration in Competition
5
William Hewlett & David Packard
CA – Global Energy, Water & Infrastructure
Innovation Initiative @ Stanford
North America Clean Economy 2050
- Clean Energ...
California Climate Leadership: Clean Economy Model
• REDUCE TO 1990 LEVELS BY 2020
• REDUCE 80% BELOW 1990 LEVELS BY 2050
...
The Global Warming Solutions Act 2006 (AB32)
California Doubles Down on Climate Action & Clean Energy
Clean Energy and Pollution Reduction Act 2015 (SB350)
Western Climate Initiative
STATE OF CALIFORNIA
PROVINCE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA,
PROVINCE OF QUÉBEC
North American Energy & Climate
Collaborative Efforts
National GHG Emissions
Management
Source: UN Climate Change Secretar...
Mexico Leadership: Climate Legislation 2012
Mexico’s Climate Leadership & Historical
Structural Reforms
Robust Institutional Framework
• GENERAL CLIMATE CHANGE LAW. 2012
• NATIONAL STRATEGY ON CLIMATE CHANGE, 10-20-40 YEARS. 2...
Mexico’s Carbon Tax 2014
A CARBON TAX WAS INTRODUCED IN MEXICO IN 2014 (OPPORTUNISTIC MOVE)
 APPLIED ONLY FOR THE USE OF ...
Carbon Market: Cap-and-Trade
North American Energy & Climate Policy:
Scaling Up Action
Mexico
$1.3 trillion
GDP
641 Mt GHG
Quebec
$319 billion
GDP
83 M...
2015 UNFCCC Paris Accord – Art. 6
19
Formal International Commitment
NDC – Unconditional Reduction
• MEXICO IS COMMITTED TO REDUCE UNCONDITIONALLY 25% OF ITS
GREENHOUSE GASES AND SHORT LIVED ...
Conditional Reduction
• THE 25% REDUCTION COMMITMENT EXPRESSED ABOVE COULD INCREASE
UP TO A 40% IN A CONDITIONAL MANNER, S...
Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition
23
China Announces a National Carbon Market by 2017
Lack of Legislative Action: Canada & US
US – Canada: Climate, Energy & Artic Leadership
MARCH 16, 2016
• A COMMON VISION OF A PROSPEROUS AND SUSTAINABLE NORTH AME...
US – Mexico Bilateral Task Force on Energy & Climate
MARCH 27, 2015
TWO COUNTRIES LAUNCHED A NEW HIGH-LEVEL BILATERAL CLEA...
Regional Cooperation: CA - Mexico
"CALIFORNIA CANNOT DO IT ALONE AND WITH THIS NEW
PARTNERSHIP WITH MEXICO WE CAN MAKE REA...
Climate and Energy Transition: Cities and Regions
- Baja California
- Chiapas
- Jalisco
- State of Mexico
- Mexico City
- ...
The Emerging Economy of North America
YOUNGEST POPULATION IN THE NAFTA
REGION
$1.3 TRILLION ECONOMY (2013 EST.)
GDP PER CA...
Clean Tech, Innovation & Economic Development
Engineering, Scientific & Research Capacity
Collaboration: Towards Regional Co-innovation
- 20% increase in the
budget of ...
Energy Transition Funds: Hydrocarbons & Sustainability
33
Source: SENER- Mexico
Results: Energy Transition Research Centers
34
- Ocean Energy Innovation
- Center Bioenergy Innovation
- Center Energy Sus...
Replicating Silicon Valley?
Energy Innovation Cycle: Policy & Business Opportunities
MUSEIC 4th Council Meeting @ Stanford University
Obama – Peña Nieto: High Level Economic Dialogue
MUSEIC Subcommittees
US - Mexico Border: Cooperation & Market Opportunities
• 22% of Mexico’s GDP
• 33% of electricity demand
• 38% of electric...
Enhancing Regional Competitiveness: Transnational
Energy and IT Value Chain & Innovation Cycle
Sources: Gobierno Baja Cali...
IT & Environmental Commodities Markets
42
Carbon Sinks: Forest Laser Monitoring
43
Innovation & The Future of Cities: Smarter Communities
Facilitate US-Mexico Clean Tech Cooperation
Mexico – California Clean Energies MOU Follow Up
Clean Tech Mission 2015
This image cannot currently be displayed. This image cannot currently be displayed.
Co-Innovation & Entrepreneurship Project: Solar
Nuevo Leon - Innovation and Technology Research Park
Stanford @ Baja California & Tijuana
Wind Power Innovation by Prof. John Dabiri @ Stanford
Baja: Testbed for Clean Tech Innovation
Vertical-axis wind turbines – John O. Dabiri (Stanford Engineering)
Academic Workshop: US – Mexico Research Collaboration
WATER-ENERGY NEXUS IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE:
THE U.S.-MEXICO...
Global Development Alliance – Stanford & USAID
MEXICO CLEAN ECONOMY 2050
1) CARBON PRICING, MARKETS & INNOVATION COOPERATI...
Governance & Institutional Strengthening for Smart
Clean Economy Policy Action in NA: Future Research
 Political
 Signal...
Thanks/Merci/Gracias!
CONTACT:
blph@stanford.edu
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Blas l. Perez Henriquez, Director, The California - Global Energy, Water and Infrastructure Innovation Initiative, Stanford University

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North American Clean Economy 2050

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Blas l. Perez Henriquez, Director, The California - Global Energy, Water and Infrastructure Innovation Initiative, Stanford University

  1. 1. North American Clean Economy 2050 B L A S L . P É R E Z H E N R Í Q U E Z F O U N D I N G D I R E C T O R , C A L I F O R N I A - G L O B A L E N E R G Y, WAT E R & I N F R A S T R U C T U R E I N N O VAT I O N I N I T I AT I V E June 22, 2016 @
  2. 2. Agenda - R E S E A R C H A G E N D A - P R O J E C T @ S T A N F O R D - “ S T A T E O F P L A Y ” O F C L I M A T E A N D C A R B O N P R I C I N G P O L I C Y I N M E X I C O - O P P O R T U N I T I E S F O R P A N - N O R T H A M E R I C A N C L I M A T E A N D C L E A N T E C H C O O P E R A T I O N - P O L I C Y I M P L E M E N T A T I O N C H A L L E N G E S
  3. 3. Towards a Prosperous and Clean North American Economy: My Research Agenda
  4. 4. North America as a Global Powerhouse THE NORTH AMERICAN GLOBAL POWERHOUSE BY GEORGE P. SHULTZ WALL STREET JOURNAL THURSDAY, JULY 11, 2013
  5. 5. Genesis of Silicon Valley: Collaboration in Competition 5 William Hewlett & David Packard
  6. 6. CA – Global Energy, Water & Infrastructure Innovation Initiative @ Stanford North America Clean Economy 2050 - Clean Energy Transition, Smart Urban and Transport Solutions for a Low Carbon Future - Regional Competiveness
  7. 7. California Climate Leadership: Clean Economy Model • REDUCE TO 1990 LEVELS BY 2020 • REDUCE 80% BELOW 1990 LEVELS BY 2050 • 20% RENEWABLES BY 2010
  8. 8. The Global Warming Solutions Act 2006 (AB32)
  9. 9. California Doubles Down on Climate Action & Clean Energy
  10. 10. Clean Energy and Pollution Reduction Act 2015 (SB350)
  11. 11. Western Climate Initiative STATE OF CALIFORNIA PROVINCE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, PROVINCE OF QUÉBEC
  12. 12. North American Energy & Climate Collaborative Efforts National GHG Emissions Management Source: UN Climate Change Secretariat  British Columbia  Washingt on  Oregon  California  Alaska
  13. 13. Mexico Leadership: Climate Legislation 2012
  14. 14. Mexico’s Climate Leadership & Historical Structural Reforms
  15. 15. Robust Institutional Framework • GENERAL CLIMATE CHANGE LAW. 2012 • NATIONAL STRATEGY ON CLIMATE CHANGE, 10-20-40 YEARS. 2013 • CARBON TAX 2014 • NATIONAL EMISSIONS AND EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS REGISTRY. 2014 • ENERGY REFORM (LAWS AND REGULATIONS) 2014 • ENERGY TRANSITION LAW 2015 • ONGOING PROCESS FOR ISSUING A NEW SET OF RULE, STANDARDS AND REGULATIONS (INCLUDING CARBON TAX & EMISSIONS TRADING)
  16. 16. Mexico’s Carbon Tax 2014 A CARBON TAX WAS INTRODUCED IN MEXICO IN 2014 (OPPORTUNISTIC MOVE)  APPLIED ONLY FOR THE USE OF FOSSIL FUELS  PRICE TO CARBON AND TO PROMOTE THE USE OF CLEANER FUELS (INITIAL PRICE SET AT $5 US$/TCO2E)  ALLOWING FOR THE USE OF OFFSETS IN THE TAX PAYMENT (ONLY CDM) HOWEVER, CONGRESS MODIFIED THE INITIAL PROPOSAL:  PRICE OF CARBON WAS SET AT ~ $US 3.5 / TCO2E  NATURAL GAS WAS EXEMPTED  ESTIMATED REVENUE: APPROX. $US 1BN  TRANSFERRED TO THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE DEPT. BY FIRST PRODUCERS/IMPORTERS CURRENT DEBATE: RULES FOR POSSIBLE USE OF OFFSETS, TRADING AND INTEROPERABILITY WITH OTHER MARKET-BASED MECHANISMS (I.E., CLEAN ENERGY CERTIFICATES). TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE NEEDED! CONTROVERSIES: - MEXICO STILL SPENDS MORE TO SUBSIDIZE CAR DRIVERS AND POWER CONSUMERS THAN THE NEW LEVY WILL RAISE (SUBSIDIES ARE BEING PHASED OUT). - SHCP (MINISTRY OF FINANCE) VS. MINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT (SEMARNAT) Considering to introduce a carbon intensity system vs. NDC implicit Cap & ETS 16
  17. 17. Carbon Market: Cap-and-Trade
  18. 18. North American Energy & Climate Policy: Scaling Up Action Mexico $1.3 trillion GDP 641 Mt GHG Quebec $319 billion GDP 83 Mt GHG MEXICO’S CLIMATE & ENERGY GOALS  30% reduction in GHG by 2020 › Baseline year 2000 50% REDUCTION IN GHG BY 2050 35% OF ELECTRICITY FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES BY 2024 California $2.2 trillion GDP 459 Mt GHG
  19. 19. 2015 UNFCCC Paris Accord – Art. 6 19
  20. 20. Formal International Commitment
  21. 21. NDC – Unconditional Reduction • MEXICO IS COMMITTED TO REDUCE UNCONDITIONALLY 25% OF ITS GREENHOUSE GASES AND SHORT LIVED CLIMATE POLLUTANTS EMISSIONS (BELOW BAU) FOR THE YEAR 2030. THIS COMMITMENT IMPLIES A REDUCTION OF 22% OF GHG EMISSIONS AND A REDUCTION OF 51% OF BLACK CARBON. • THIS COMMITMENT IMPLIES A NET EMISSIONS PEAK STARTING FROM 2026, DECOUPLING GHG EMISSIONS FROM ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMISSIONS INTENSITY PER UNIT OF GDP WILL REDUCE BY AROUND 40% FROM 2013 TO 2030.
  22. 22. Conditional Reduction • THE 25% REDUCTION COMMITMENT EXPRESSED ABOVE COULD INCREASE UP TO A 40% IN A CONDITIONAL MANNER, SUBJECT TO A GLOBAL AGREEMENT ADDRESSING IMPORTANT TOPICS INCLUDING INTERNATIONAL CARBON PRICE, CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENTS, TECHNICAL COOPERATION, ACCESS TO LOW- COST FINANCIAL RESOURCES AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, ALL AT A SCALE COMMENSURATE TO THE CHALLENGE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. • WITHIN THE SAME CONDITIONS, GHG REDUCTIONS COULD INCREASE UP TO 36%, AND BLACK CARBON REDUCTIONS TO 70% IN 2030.
  23. 23. Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition 23
  24. 24. China Announces a National Carbon Market by 2017
  25. 25. Lack of Legislative Action: Canada & US
  26. 26. US – Canada: Climate, Energy & Artic Leadership MARCH 16, 2016 • A COMMON VISION OF A PROSPEROUS AND SUSTAINABLE NORTH AMERICAN ECONOMY, AND THE OPPORTUNITIES AFFORDED BY ADVANCING CLEAN GROWTH. • THE PARIS AGREEMENT AS A TURNING POINT IN GLOBAL EFFORTS TO COMBAT CLIMATE CHANGE AND ANCHOR ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CLEAN DEVELOPMENT. • THEY RESOLVE THAT THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA MUST AND WILL PLAY A LEADERSHIP ROLE INTERNATIONALLY IN THE LOW CARBON GLOBAL ECONOMY OVER THE COMING DECADES, INCLUDING THROUGH SCIENCE-BASED STEPS TO PROTECT THE ARCTIC AND ITS PEOPLES. • THE IMPORTANCE OF THE U.S. AND CANADA CONTINUING TO COOPERATE CLOSELY WITH MEXICO ON CLIMATE AND ENERGY ACTION AND COMMIT TO STRENGTHEN A COMPREHENSIVE AND ENDURING NORTH AMERICAN CLIMATE AND ENERGY PARTNERSHIP.
  27. 27. US – Mexico Bilateral Task Force on Energy & Climate MARCH 27, 2015 TWO COUNTRIES LAUNCHED A NEW HIGH-LEVEL BILATERAL CLEAN ENERGY AND CLIMATE POLICY TASK FORCE TO FURTHER DEEPEN POLICY AND REGULATORY COORDINATION. AREAS INCLUDE: • CLEAN ELECTRICITY, GRID MODERNIZATION, APPLIANCE STANDARDS, AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY • FUEL EFFICIENT AUTOMOBILE FLEETS IN BOTH COUNTRIES • GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING, WEATHER FORECASTING AND EARLY ALERTS SYSTEM
  28. 28. Regional Cooperation: CA - Mexico "CALIFORNIA CANNOT DO IT ALONE AND WITH THIS NEW PARTNERSHIP WITH MEXICO WE CAN MAKE REAL PROGRESS ON REDUCING DANGEROUS GREENHOUSE GASES.” Edmund G. Brown, Governor of California Mexico City, July 29, 2014
  29. 29. Climate and Energy Transition: Cities and Regions - Baja California - Chiapas - Jalisco - State of Mexico - Mexico City - Quintana Roo - Yucatan All signatories agree to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions 80 to 95%, or limit to 2 metric tons CO2- equivalent per capita, by 2050. 135 subnational jurisdictions representing 32 countries Represent 783 million people $21 trillion in GDP = more than a quarter of the global economy
  30. 30. The Emerging Economy of North America YOUNGEST POPULATION IN THE NAFTA REGION $1.3 TRILLION ECONOMY (2013 EST.) GDP PER CAPITA $9000 CONSTANT USD GDP PER CAPITA $15,600 (2013 EST.) /PURCHASING POWER PARITY (PPP) GDP PER CAPITA IN MEXICO CITY $26,000 (2013 EST.)/PPP SOURCE: WORLD BANK Age  112,336,538 habitants  Women: 57,481,307  Men: 54,855,231 Source: INEGI 2014
  31. 31. Clean Tech, Innovation & Economic Development
  32. 32. Engineering, Scientific & Research Capacity Collaboration: Towards Regional Co-innovation - 20% increase in the budget of the National Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT) in Mexico City. - Increased the overall science budget by 12%, to 82 billion pesos (US$6.3 billion). - Goal is 1% of GDP by 2018.
  33. 33. Energy Transition Funds: Hydrocarbons & Sustainability 33 Source: SENER- Mexico
  34. 34. Results: Energy Transition Research Centers 34 - Ocean Energy Innovation - Center Bioenergy Innovation - Center Energy Sustainability Innovation Labs - Non-Fossil Fuel Technology Demands Mexican - Postdoctoral Projects in Sustainable Energy Science and Technology Projects for Border Issues - Institutional Strengthening for Energy Sustainability - Wind Energy - Innovation Center Solar Energy Innovation Center - Geothermal Energy Innovation Center
  35. 35. Replicating Silicon Valley?
  36. 36. Energy Innovation Cycle: Policy & Business Opportunities
  37. 37. MUSEIC 4th Council Meeting @ Stanford University
  38. 38. Obama – Peña Nieto: High Level Economic Dialogue
  39. 39. MUSEIC Subcommittees
  40. 40. US - Mexico Border: Cooperation & Market Opportunities • 22% of Mexico’s GDP • 33% of electricity demand • 38% of electricity generation But 95% of power generation installed capacity consumes fossil fuels THE SIX MEXICAN BORDER STATES ARE AN ECONOMIC POWERHOUSE: The border region, defined as the ten U.S. and Mexican border states, represents a combined population of nearly 100 million people and the world’s fourth largest economy. Source: US State Dept.
  41. 41. Enhancing Regional Competitiveness: Transnational Energy and IT Value Chain & Innovation Cycle Sources: Gobierno Baja California & ProMexico
  42. 42. IT & Environmental Commodities Markets 42
  43. 43. Carbon Sinks: Forest Laser Monitoring 43
  44. 44. Innovation & The Future of Cities: Smarter Communities
  45. 45. Facilitate US-Mexico Clean Tech Cooperation
  46. 46. Mexico – California Clean Energies MOU Follow Up
  47. 47. Clean Tech Mission 2015 This image cannot currently be displayed. This image cannot currently be displayed.
  48. 48. Co-Innovation & Entrepreneurship Project: Solar
  49. 49. Nuevo Leon - Innovation and Technology Research Park
  50. 50. Stanford @ Baja California & Tijuana
  51. 51. Wind Power Innovation by Prof. John Dabiri @ Stanford
  52. 52. Baja: Testbed for Clean Tech Innovation Vertical-axis wind turbines – John O. Dabiri (Stanford Engineering)
  53. 53. Academic Workshop: US – Mexico Research Collaboration WATER-ENERGY NEXUS IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER REGION AND THE CASE OF CALIFORNIA-BAJA CALIFORNIA STANFORD UNIVERSITY OCTOBER 1-2, 2015
  54. 54. Global Development Alliance – Stanford & USAID MEXICO CLEAN ECONOMY 2050 1) CARBON PRICING, MARKETS & INNOVATION COOPERATION IN NORTH AMERICA 2) INNOVATION, ENTREPRENEURSHIP & CLEAN GROWTH AT THE LOCAL LEVEL: - SMARTER COMMUNITIES, ENERGY TRANSITION & INFRASTRUCTURE INNOVATION
  55. 55. Governance & Institutional Strengthening for Smart Clean Economy Policy Action in NA: Future Research  Political  Signaling (e.g., credible commitment, global action, COP21 Paris)  “not going alone” (e.g., EU ETS, emerging carbon market system PRC and 50+ other systems)  Economic  Carbon market expansion = increase compliance cost minimization opportunities for industry, offset market, and transition investment through carbon pricing.  Trade & investment = regional competitiveness (e.g., renewables/electric power sector)  Institutional  “Learning by doing”  Share best/smart practices  Leapfrog and “Getting it right” faster  Policy alignment/harmonization: energy and carbon policy Carbon Pricing & Investment Cap and Trade Revenue Carbon Taxes Grants/subsidies Technology PV and Wind Power Biodigesters Biofuels Governance Rule of Law/Security Monitoring and Measuring Policy Implementation Transparency/Corruption Carbon Pricing & Investment Cap and Trade Revenue Carbon Taxes Grants/subsidies Technology PV and Wind Power Biodigesters Biofuels Governance Rule of Law/Security Monitoring and Measuring Policy Implementation Transparency/Corruption
  56. 56. Thanks/Merci/Gracias! CONTACT: blph@stanford.edu

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