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West Coast Biosphere Reserve

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Is the WCBR viable - assessment of species and habitat criteria

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West Coast Biosphere Reserve

  1. 1. Predicting future land-use change as a planning tool for biodiversity conservation in the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve, South Africa<br />WaafekaVardien<br />
  2. 2. The Cape Floristic Region (CFR)1,2<br />Exceptional botanical richness, diversity, and endemism<br />Late Cenozoic climatic stability<br />1 of 5 Mediterranean global hotspots<br />Conservation in the CFR3<br />10 859 km2 conserved<br />50% mountain landscapes<br />9% lowlands<br />Identified threats: invasive alien species, agriculture, and urbanization<br />
  3. 3. Conservation assessments and land use4,5<br />Appropriate measures of biodiversity in conservation planning<br />More attention given to species and populations, rather than habitat<br />Habitat loss is however, a major biodiversity threat<br />The use of a land use classification system has been useful in estimating habitat loss and risks to biodiversity <br />Land use: human modification of natural environment into built environment<br />Land use and land management practices impact natural resources<br />
  4. 4. The Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve (CWCBR)6<br />Situated on the southwestern part of the CFR, north of Cape Town<br />Rich built environment and cultural heritage<br />Includes 18 vegetation types<br />Climate is described as arid<br />All the rivers in the area are classified as critically endangered<br />Urban expansion has been relentless <br />Lowland areas are particularly poorly conserved, especially where rare and threatened species occur<br />
  5. 5. Research objectives<br />Cape Towns’ major development corridor is northwards along the CWCBR. <br /> It has been predicted that between 2002 and 2012, the population of the CWCBR will double. <br />Due to natural lowland being at risk of destruction, pro-active conservation planning is essential. <br /> <br />
  6. 6. Materials and Methods<br />Land use classes<br />Natural vegetation<br />Agricultural land<br />Waterbodies<br />Barren land<br />Urban/ built up land<br />Verification<br />Google Earth<br />S.A Land cover data set<br />Accuracy assessment<br />Cross tabulation<br />Kappa analysis<br />
  7. 7. Materials and Methods<br />
  8. 8. Results <br />Natural vegetation<br />Agricultural land<br />Warebodies<br />Barren Land<br />Urban/ built up land<br />A. B.<br />Figure 1: Land use maps of (A) 1990 and (B) 2006 of the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve. <br />
  9. 9. Table 1. Area of land use classes in 1990 and 2006, and percentage change in land use classes between 1990 and 2006. Percentage change in land use classes are derived from the difference in area between land classes in 1990 and 2006, divided by the area in 1990.<br />
  10. 10. Figure 2. Net change (in hectares) by land use category, for Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve, based on land use maps derived from Landsat TM images of 1990 and 2006.<br />
  11. 11. Natural vegetation<br />Agricultural land<br />Warebodies<br />Barren Land<br />Urban/ built up land<br />Figure 3. Predicted land use map of the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve, by 2020, based on Cellular Automaton Markov modeling of a 1990 and 2006 land use map.<br />
  12. 12. Table 2. The spatial extent of land use classes in 1990, 2006 and 2020 and the associated percentage change between 1990 and 2006, and between 2006 and 2020. Values for 2020 are predicted values based on transitional models derived from land use maps of the Cape Wes Coast Biosphere reserve.<br />
  13. 13. Table 3. Transitional probability matrix of land use change between 2006 and 2020, based on a Markov analysis of a 1990 and 2006 land use map of the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve. <br />
  14. 14. Proteaceae species<br />Core zone<br />Core designated<br />Buffer zone<br />Transition zone<br />Urban area<br />Figure 4. Distribution of Proteaceae species in the zones of the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve, derived from Protea Atlas data.<br />
  15. 15. Number of species<br />1 - 2<br />3 - 4<br />5 - 6<br />7 - 8<br />9 - 11<br />Figure 5. Number of Proteaceae species, per 10 x 10 km grid cell, in the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve.<br />
  16. 16. Brillouin’s index of diversity<br />0.00 – 0.4<br />0.4 – 0.8<br />0.8 – 1.2<br />1.2 – 1.6<br />1.6 - 2.00<br />Figure 6. Proteaceae species diversity in the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve.<br />
  17. 17. Climate suitability<br />Not suitable<br />Low (0 – 2.5 percentile)<br />Medium (2.5 – 5 percentile)<br />High (5 -10 percentile)<br />Very high (10 – 20 percentile)<br />Excellent (20 – 40 percentile)<br />Figure 7. Present climatic suitability for Proteaceae species in the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve. <br />
  18. 18. Climate suitability<br />Not suitable<br />Low (0 – 2.5 percentile)<br />Medium (2.5 – 5 percentile)<br />High (5 -10 percentile)<br />Very high (10 – 20 percentile)<br />Excellent (20 – 40 percentile)<br />Figure 8. Future climatic suitability for Proteaceae species in the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve. <br />
  19. 19. Conclusion<br /><ul><li>Between 1990 and 2006: rapid growth in urban development and destruction of lowland habitat
  20. 20. Similar patterns predicted, for the future
  21. 21. With respect to Proteaceae species, zoning of the CWCBR is inadequate
  22. 22. In areas with high species concentration: conservation integrity is not maintained
  23. 23. Priority conservation areas need to be determined/ improved spatially
  24. 24. Future study recommendations: usage of higher resolution satellite images, and other plant/ animal species data </li></li></ul><li>Acknowledgements<br />I thank the Almighty for granting me my healthand knowledge in undertaking this project. <br /> A big thanks to my parents and FaqeerHassem for their words of motivation, encouragement and support. <br /> I thank Dr. Richard Knight for his supervision with this project. <br /> To James Magidi & Mohammed Kraush thank you for your assistance with IDRISI and your advice. <br /> Lastly, I wish to thank Audrey King, Linda Van Heerden, and my Honors peers for all the little bits of favors they have for me throughout the year, and to Professor Mark Gibbons and the NRF for the funding of my tuition fees. <br />
  25. 25. References<br /> <br />Goldblatt, P., Manning, J.C. 2002. Plant diversity of the Cape Region of southern Africa. Annals of the Missouri Botanical Garden89, 281-302.<br />Cowling, R.M., Holmes, P.M., Rebelo, A.G. 1992. Plant diversity and endemism. In: Cowling, R.M. (Ed.).The Ecology of Fynbos: Fire, Nutrients and diversity. Oxford University Press, Cape Town, pp. 62-112.<br />Conservation International. 2007. Cape Floristic Region. Accessed 25 Nov 2009, available from: www.biodiversityhotspots<br />Cowling, R.M., Heijnis, C.E. 2001. The identification of broad habitat units as biodiversity entities for systematic conservation planning in the Cape Floristic Region. South African Journal of Botany 67, 15-38.<br />Rouget, M., Richardson, D.M., Cowling, R.M. 2003. The current configuration of protected areas in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa—reservation bias and representation of biodiversity patterns and processes. Biological Conservation 112, 129–145.<br />CWCBR Spatial Development Plan. Draft Status Quo Report. Report 1474/1, prepared for the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve by iKapaEnvioplan in association with CLES. 68 p.<br />Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S., Parra, J.L., Jones P.G., Jarvis A. 2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25, 1965- 1978.<br />

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