2014 April GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Educational Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through April 2014

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 3
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com
Key Findings
1.  Rich, New Information is Available on Demand for Education—GrayReports
2.  A Significant Shift is Underway in Inquiry Mix
§  On-line vs. On-ground
§  External Inquiries vs. Internal Inquiries
§  Biggest Cities vs. Smaller Cities
§  Largest Programs vs. Smaller Programs
3.  Application Rates Show Mixed Results
4.  Clear Trends emerging in Inquiry Pricing and Cost-per-Application
5.  Question and Answer

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Who Is Gray?
Gray offers cutting-edge data and analysis on post-secondary education markets.
GrayReports
Completions
Employment
GrayData
Placement Rates
Industry Inqs & Apps
Demographics
BLS/ONET
Business Strategy
Location Selection
Program Portfolio Strategy
Marketing Strategy and Pricing
Gray Research
Job Postings
IPEDS
US Census WANTED Analytics
Public SourcesPublic Sources Gray Resources

GRAY
What is GrayReports?
Over 31 million qualified inquiries
January 2012 to the present
Over 900,000 new inquiries in April
149 programs with over 10,000 inquiries
257 cities with over 10,000 inquiries

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GrayReports: Validity
GrayReports is highly consistent with Google trends and other sources on demand for education.
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Google1GrayReports
Inquiries
GrayData
Google
Google Search Trends vs. GrayReports Inquiries
Medical Assisting
(January 2012 to October 2013)
1. Google Trends: “Interest over Time”
Correlation: 92.7%

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Education Industry Inquiry Growth
Inquiries for the first four months of 2014 have declined 6.6% year-over-year (YoY).
§  April 2014 inquiries declined 9.6% YoY.
§  April had the 2nd lowest inquiry volume in the last 28 months.
2012
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
(Millions)
Education Industry Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels
2013
2014
-9.5%

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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Line Programs
2013
2014
On-Line Inquiries
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for on-line programs continue to lose share in a soft market.
§  So far in 2014, inquiries for on-line programs have dropped 24% YoY.
§  In April, inquiries for on-line programs fell even faster: they were down 29.3% YoY.
§  April reported the lowest inquiries for on-line programs in the last 28 months.
-29%

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Inquiries for On-Ground Programs
Inquiries for on-ground programs continue to show strength.
§  The first four months of 2014 have produced a 3.2% increase in inquiries over the same period in 2013.
§  April 2014 inquiries are up 9.09% year-over-year.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Ground Programs
2013
2014
+9.1%

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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Inquiries
Inquiries from External Sources
2013
2014
External Inquiries
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeThe early months of 2014 suggest an accelerating decline in external Inquiries.
§  In 2014, external Inquiries have declined 8% YoY.
§  The decline has increased each month in 2014.
§  External inquiries in April 2014 fell nearly 13.6% YoY.
-13.6%

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0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Inquiries
Inquiries from Internal Sources
2013
2014
Internal Inquiries
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInternal Inquiries are showing strength in early 2014.
§  Internal Inquiries are flat year-over-year, recording a modest decline of 2% so far during 2014.
§  Results have been improving, from a low of -8% in January to 8.8% growth in April.
§  April of 2014 was the first positive year-over-year return since the beginning of 2013.
+8.75%

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Fastest-Growing Cities of the Top 75
All of the fastest-growing cities1 met or exceeded last year’s inquiry volumes.
§  San Diego, CA was the fastest-growing market for the third straight month, up 22.9% year-over-year.
§  All five cities grew over 15%.
19.0%
-2.4% -2.9%
-31.5% -26.1%
22.9% 20.6% 19.4% 17.7% 16.4%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
San Diego, CA Phoenix, AZ Columbus, GA Honolulu, HI Vallejo-Fairfield, CA
Industry Inquiries
Top 5 Highest Growth Markets – April 2014
2013 YoY % Change 2014 YoY % Change
1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.

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Largest Cities of the Top 75: April Growth
Four of the five largest cities were down in April 2014.
§  Los Angeles was up a respectable 5.4%.
§  New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Atlanta all suffered double digit year-over-year declines in April.
9.4%
-13.0%
2.3%
-19.2%
1.5%
-16.7%
5.4%
-12.3% -11.8%
-14.6%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL Atlanta, GA
Industry Inquiries
5 Largest Markets – April 2014
1. Includes only cities in the top 75 for inquiry volume since January 2012 within a 15 mile radius for all award levels nationally.

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Top 75: Fastest-Growing Programs in March
The five fastest-growing programs1 all grew over 60% year-over-year in April.
§  Technical programs accounted for three of the five fastest-growing programs.
§  Electrical/CommTech, Web Design, and Network Admin made the list for the second time this year.
§  Liberal Arts is the only program that made the list for three months straight.
-9.2%
94.8%
7.8%
-8.6%
100.9% 96.8%
77.7%
65.8% 64.5%
-50.0%
-30.0%
-10.0%
10.0%
30.0%
50.0%
70.0%
90.0%
110.0%
130.0%
Electrical, Electronic &
Comms. Eng.
Technology/Tech.
Applied Behavior
Analysis.
Liberal Arts & Sciences Web, Digital, Multimedia
& Information Design
Network & System
Admin.
Industry Inquiries
Fastest Growing Programs – April 2014
1. Includes only programs within the top 75 for total inquiries since January 2012.

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Largest Programs of the Top 75: April Growth
Four of the Five largest programs were down in April 2014.
7.2%
-9.4% -9.6%
-7.7%
14.5%
-12.0%
3.1%
-26.6% -27.7% -28.9%
-35.0%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Business Administration and
Management, General.
Medical/Clinical Assistant. Criminal Justice/Police
Science.
Health/Health Care
Administration/Management.
Accounting.
Five Largest Programs
February Inquiries: Year-over-Year Change

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Average Price-Per-Inquiry
Since January 2012, price-per-inquiry has risen from $39.94 to $43.99, roughly 14.5 cents per month.
§  In 2013, price-per-inquiry averaged $41.37.
§  In April, price-per-inquiry rose to $43.99—an increase of $1.06 cents over the prior month.
$38
$39
$40
$41
$42
$43
$44
$45
Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Average
PPI
Average Inquiry Prices
2014 2013

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$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
$50.00
Dollars
Average Price Per Inquiry: Online Inquiries
All Programs and All Award Levels
2013
2014
Average Price-Per-Inquiry: Online Programs
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeShrinking inquiry volumes for on-line programs is driving a fairly substantial price.
§  Price per inquiry for on-line has generally been in the $40 and under range.
§  Price per inquiry has been above $40 since January 2014.
§  In April, price per inquiry for on-line programs reached a record high of $45.91.

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$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
Average Price per Inquiry: On-ground Inquiries
All Programs and All Award Levels
2013
2014
Average Price-Per-Inquiry: On-ground Programs
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeAfter a slight decline in late 2013, price-per-inquiry for on-ground programs has stabilized.
§  It has been under $40 since June 2013.
§  In 2014, it has held steady between $39 and $40.

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2.9%
2.5%
3.0%
2.8%
2.9%
3.4%
3.2%
3.0%
2.7%
2.8%
2.6%
2.6%
2.4%
2.0%
2.3%
1.9%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
ApplicationRate
Education Industry Application Rates
2013 2014
Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates
Immature Months1
Application rates during the first few months of 2014 appear much weaker than the year before.
§  January 2014 has matured and it is 17.4% behind its 2013 rate.
§  February 2014 is nearly mature and it does not appear likely that it will reach the same levels as 2013.
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry).
Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

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Average Cost-Per-Application
Higher price-per-inquiry and lower application rates are driving up costs per application in 2014.
§  In 2013, rising application rates offset price increases, reducing the average cost-per-application.
§  As 2014 matures, the price-per-inquiry will drop—but if January is an indicator they will remain well
above 2013 levels.
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2013 1,461 1,609 1,402 1,479 1,480 1,175 1,297 1,390 1,542 1,497 1,528 1,601
2014 1,783 2,173 1,846 2,309
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Cost-Per-Application
Not Fully Mature

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Key Findings
1.  Rich, New Information is Available on Demand for Education—GrayReports
2.  A Significant Shift is Underway in Inquiry Mix
§  On-line is declining 24% year to date, but on-ground is up 3.2%
§  External Inquiries are down 8%, while Internal Inquiries were up 9% in April
§  4 of the 5 largest cities dropped 11%, losing share to smaller cities
§  The five largest programs fell 14% in April, while the fastest growing programs
rose over 60%
3.  Application Rates Show Mixed Results
4.  Inquiry Pricing and Cost-per-Application are Up in April

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How do I get Information for My Locations and Programs?
Gray Reports is offered as an annual subscription.
§  Customized for your locations
§  Customized for your programs
§  Monthly PDF overview of inquiry, application, and pricing tends in your markets
§  On-line access to your market data by program, campus, veteran’s status, years since
high school and other factors
§  Price: $15,000 per year

GRAY
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact me:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
617-401-7662
For the presentation or a recording of the
session, please visit:
GrayAssociates.com

2014 April GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

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