2018 Best Practices in Program Portfolio Assessment - Employer Demand

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 1Confidential
Best Practices in
Program Portfolio
Assessment:
Employer Demand
March 8, 2018

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 2
Student Demand
February 8th at 2:00 PM ET
Assessing Employment
Opportunities
March 8th at 2:00 PM ET
Strategic Fit
April 12th at 2:00 PM ET
Analyzing Competition
Evaluating Markets for Programs
✔
Best-practices: inclusive process with sound data on four topics.
Decision-Making Process
April 22

Agenda
1. Employment Opportunity Data: Sources, Uses, and Limitations
2. U.S. Employment Trends: Job Postings
3. Summary

The Bureau of Labor Statistics
BLS is a primary source and its employment data is easy to access.

Employment Opportunity Data: BLS
BLS surveys employers to estimate employment by Standard Occupation Code (SOC).
SOCs are assigned to all people who do similar work
49-9052.00
Telephone Line Installers and Repairers
29-1065.00
Pediatrician

NCES crosswalks intentionally draw a tight link between programs and SOCs.
NCES Crosswalks
History, General
CIP 54.0101
Managers, All Other
SOC 11-9199
Historians
SOC 19-3093
Source: National Center for Education Statistics: SOC 2010 mapped to CIP.
History Teachers, Postsecondary
SOC 25-1125
Secondary School Teachers, Except Special
and Career/Technical Education
SOC 25-2031

1 4
462
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
CIPs (Programs) NCES Matched SOCs Actual Employment: SOCs
Count of Programs and Occupations
CIP 54.0101 History, General
Reality: Loose Alignment, especially for Liberal Arts
NCES Crosswalks
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Gray analysis of over 2.0 million records.

Even for one program, occupations are very diverse—from CEO to salesperson.
ACS Actual Fields of Employment
11%
7%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0% 5% 10% 15%
Lawyers, Judges, other Judicial
Teachers: Elem. & Mid. School
Postsecondary Teachers
Miscellaneous Managers
Secondary School Teachers
Education Administrators
Chief Executives and Legislators
Clergy
Retail Salespersons
First-line Supervisors: Retail
Administrative Assistants
Management Analysts
Sales Reps, Wholesale and Manufacturing
Accountants and Auditors
Librarians
Physicians and Surgeons
First-line Supervisors: Non-Retail Sales
Customer Service Representatives
Financial Managers
General and Operations Managers
What do History Majors Really Do?
Percentage of History Majors by Occupation
Advanced
Professional
Education
Other
Source: American Community Survey

85% of BLS projected growth rates are off by 50% or more.
BLS Forecast Accuracy
2%
3%
10%
21%
23% 23%
19%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
<10% 10-25% 25-50% 50-75% 75-100% 100-150% 150+
Percentage
of SOCs
Percentage Error
BLS Forecast Error
Actual Employment vs. Projected Employment Growth
2012-2015
Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics and BLS Employment Projections 2012-2022.
Note: BLS forecasts are for 2022. BLS 2012 base and annual growth rate vs. actual growth from 2012 to 2015.

BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook

BLS Occupational Employment Statistics
Despite its limitations, BLS is a frequently-used source on employment.

BLS 10th-Percentile Wages
Wage profiles by occupation are available from BLS.
$57,480
$81,350
$119,280
$168,390
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
10th Percentile 25th Percentile Median 75th Percentile
BLS Wages
Wages by Percentile
Marketing and Sales Manager 11-2020.00
Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/oes

Educational Attainment of Workers By SOC
Educational attainment indicates the degree level needed in the occupation.

Placement Rates
Placement rates by program highlight the employability of program graduates.

Placement Rates
Regulations require many institutions to disclose placement rates on their websites.

Job Postings: Employer-Site or Total?
Job-posting data come from three sources, which vary in quality.
Job Sites
Recruiters
Employers ✔

Job Postings Data
Job postings are available from Burning Glass, Talent Analytics, and others.

Current job postings are a reliable predictor of future job postings.
Job Postings: Predictive Power
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
2016
Job Postings
2014 Job Postings
Job Postings
By 8-Digit SOC
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017.
Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions.
Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.
Correlation: 0.969
Registered Nurses
Retail Salespersons
Managers, All Other
Security Guards

Data for a single program is a challenge to interpret.
Data Interpretation
New Job Postings: 153,611
?

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Percentiles and color codes aide interpretation.
Data Interpretation
New Job Postings
Percentiles for all Programs
N =1,000
Program 1: 153,611
Program 800: 10,000
Program
Percentile

Interpreting employment information requires a context.
Employment Data: Interpretation

Agenda
3. Summary

Job Postings: Geographic Density
Employment is a very local phenomenon, led by the West Coast.
Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017.
Map circle size represents ratio of job postings to employed population.
Metro Area Job Postings per 10,000
people employed
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro 307
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward 301
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, 275
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, 259
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria 256
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell 230
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington 219
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale 209
Boston-Cambridge-Nashua 195
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington 189
New York-Newark-Jersey City 159
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim 148
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land 146
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, 139
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach 135

Job Postings: The Big 5 Cities
Employer demand trends vary substantially by location.
4%
6%
0%
19%
0%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
New York, NY Atlanta, GA San Francisco, CA Chicago, IL Dallas, TX
2017 YoY Job Posting Growth
Five Cities with the Most Job Postings

Job Postings: Salaries in the Big 5 Cities
Wages also vary by location.
598
313 262 268 327
859
172 382 170
270
1,046
237
555
177
298
1,077
909
1,064
292
231
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
New York, NY Atlanta, GA San Francisco, CA Chicago, IL Dallas, TX
Five Cities with the Most Job Postings
2017 Salary Distribution
More than $75,000
$50,000 to $74,999
$35,000 to $49,999
Less than $35,000
Avg. Salary $65,000 $80,000 $77,000 $65,000 $57,000
Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies. Excludes job postings without salary information.
Job
Postings

Demand Assessment for Accounting
For a given program, one can assess related abilities, work activities, skills, and
occupations.
Source: SkillsEngine. Gray’s Program Evaluation System
CIPs: Accounting (52.0301)

Job Postings: Ten Largest Occupations
Healthcare and IT took three of the top five slots for job posting volume.
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
Registered Nurses
Managers, All Other
Software Developers, Applications
Medical and Health Services Managers
General and Operations Managers
Sales Managers
Human Resources Specialists
Management Analysts
Marketing Managers
Financial Managers
Job Postings in 2017
Ten Largest Occupations
Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher).
Managers
Healthcare
IT
Consulting
Human
Resources

Job Postings: Ten Fastest-Growing Occupations
The fastest-growing occupations in 2017.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Food Service Managers
Psychology Teachers, Postsecondary
Audiologists
Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary
First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and…
Nursing Instructors and Teachers, Postsecondary
Teachers and Instructors, All Other
Advertising Sales Agents
Magnetic Resonance Imaging Technologists
Athletic Trainers
Ten Fastest-Growing Occupations in the U.S.
Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher). Minimum 200 job postings in 2016.
Other
Education

Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Skill Clusters
The top skill cluster is Microsoft Office.
0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000
IT: Microsoft Office and Productivity Tools
Customer and Client Support: Basic…
Finance: Budget Management
Health Care: Basic Patient Care
Administration: Scheduling
Health Care: Medical Support
Business: Project Management
Health Care: Emergency and Intensive Care
Health Care: General Medicine
Business: Business Process and Analysis
Ten Most-Requested Skill-Clusters

Job Postings: Most Requested Specialized Skills
Microsoft Excel is the most frequently-requested specialized skill.
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000
Microsoft Excel
Budgeting
Microsoft Office
Scheduling
Patient Care
Customer Service
Project Management
Teaching
Microsoft Powerpoint
Staff Management
Ten Most-Requested Specialized Skills in the US
Microsoft
Other

Education and Training: Program Management skill cluster is up 272% in 2017.
Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Skill Clusters
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%
Education and Training: Program Management
Health Care: Nephrology
Marketing and Public Relations: General…
Sales: Solution Sales Engineering
Supply Chain and Logistics: Retail Store…
Supply Chain and Logistics: Logistics
Health Care: Rehabilitation
Sales: Telemarketing
Maintenance, Repair, and Installation: Hand…
Sales: General Sales Practices
Ten Fastest-Growing Skill Clusters
Other
Health Care

Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Certifications
Nationally, healthcare, especially RN, dominates the jobs requiring certification.
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000120,000
Registered Nurse
Basic Cardiac Life Support Certification
Project Management Certification (e.g., PMP)
Certified Public Accountant (CPA)
Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS)…
Social Work License
Nurse Practitioner
American Heart Association Certificate
American Registry of Radiologic…
Registered Health Information Technician
Ten Most-Requested Certifications in the U.S.
1. Includes only the 200 largest certifications in occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree.
Other
Healthcare

CIP 43.0107 – Criminal Justice/Police Science.
Program Scorecard: Employment

Interpreting employment information requires a context.
Employment Data: Interpretation

CIP 43.0107 – Criminal Justice/Police Science.
Program Scorecard: Employment

Employment in Context

Agenda
3. Summary

Summary
§ BLS data is readily available, but is dated and a weak indicator of trends.
§ Job posting data is vital for trends in employment growth, skills and certifications.
§ Aligning labor data (SOCs) with programs (CIPs) is hard and error-prone.
§ Numbers for one program lack the context needed to interpret the data.
§ Employment is only one part of the puzzle.
§ As a result, DIY is quite expensive, time-consuming, and error-prone.
§ Gray’s Program Evaluation System can do the heavy lifting for you.
Assessing employer demand in your markets is no easy task.

Evaluating Markets for Programs
On April 12th we will share best practices for assessing Competition and Fit.
Student Demand
February 8th at 2:00 PM ET
Assessing Employment
Opportunities
March 8th at 2:00 PM ET
Strategic Fit
Analyzing Competition
Decision-Making Process
April 22

For More Information
To contact Gray Associates:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
617-366-2836
www.GrayAssociates.com

2018 Best Practices in Program Portfolio Assessment - Employer Demand

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