2017 August GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through August 2017

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
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For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: Sales@GrayAssociates.com
Who Is Gray?
Program and Market
Evaluation Data
Employment
Placement RatesStudent Demand
Demographics
Wages
Programs Price ProjectsPlace
§ Program Evaluation
System
§ Program profiles
§ Program development
§ City targeting
§ Location selection
§ Campus consolidation
§ Price elasticity
§ Price positioning
§ Price optimization
§ Business strategy
§ Strategy implementation
§ Acquisition analysis
§ Complex analytics
Advanced Analytics
Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
Enhanced Crosswalks

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Agenda
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries and Conversions
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
2. Job Postings: Medical and Health Services Managers
3. Program of the Month: Health Care Administration
4. Summary

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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels
2015 2016 2017
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Total inquiry volumes have been declining for several years.
§ Declining unemployment rate
§ Falling interest in post-secondary education
§ Marketers shifting away from paid inquiries

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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
National Inquiries
2015 2016 2017
Inquiries fell faster this year, average monthly volume is off by 11% year-over-year.
-11%

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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
National Inquiries
2015 2016 2017
August volume dropped 9%, slightly better than the 2017 average.
-9%

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Conversion Maturity
It takes several months for inquiries to convert.
§ It took until May for conversions of January inquiries to beat last year.
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Month 1
January
Month 2
February
Month 3
March
Month 4
April
Month 5
May
Month 6
June
Month 7
July
Month 8
August
Conversion of 2017 January Inquiries
Versus 2016 January Conversions

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80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2017, conversion rates are well above our 2014 baseline.
§ Q2 2017 beat the baseline by 25%.
§ Q2 inquiries will continue to convert.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2. Total includes unknown source type.
+25%

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Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For May inquiries, total conversions increased 10% year-over-year.
§ June and July 2017 have already reached 2016 levels.
§ August is also likely to pass last year’s volumes.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Total Inquiry Conversions
2015 2016 2017
+10% YoY
Immature Months1

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2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75
2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.49
2017 $45.39 $45.30 $45.50 $45.36 $45.51 $45.76 $45.26 $44.65 $- $- $- $-
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
For the first time in 2017, the average price of an external inquiry was below $45.
§ In August, prices were nearly flat year-over year.
§ August is the lowest price this year.
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
+0.3%

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Student Inquiries: 10 Largest Inquiry Budgets
1.0
1.0
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Medical/Clinical Assistant
Business Admin: Bachelor's +
Medical Office Assistant/Specialist
Business Admin: Associate's
Psychology, General
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist
Health Care Administration
Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and…
HVAC Maintenance Technology
Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller
10 Largest Inquiry Budgets
(August 2017)
Among the 10 largest programs, Medical Assisting had the highest spending on inquiries.
Index to Max

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Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Psychology, General
Health Care Administration
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist
Heating, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and…
Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information…
Business Admin: Bachelor's +
Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller
Medical Office Assistant/Specialist
Business Admin: Associate's
Medical/Clinical Assistant
August 2017 Inquiry Budget Trends
10 Programs With the Largest Budgets
§ Spending increased for more than half of the 10 largest programs.
The program with the largest budget, Medical Assisting, decreased 12% YoY in August 2017.
% Change YoY

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Agenda
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Inquiries for Online Programs
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs shrank less than 1% year-over-year in August.
§ This is positive news after an 11% decline in July.
§ Plus, August 2016 was a very tough month to beat–it was up 15% over August 2015 and had the most online
inquiries since January 2014.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs
2015 2016 2017
-1% YoY

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Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions for online higher education programs increased 89% in May.
§ This is the tenth consecutive increase in conversions.
§ June and July have already grown compared to last year.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
2015 2016 2017
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
+89%
YoY
Immature Months1

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Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
In 2017, inquiries for on-campus academic programs have continued their decline.
§ In August, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 12% year-over-year.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
2015 2016 2017
-12% YoY

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Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs fell 10% year-over-year in May.
§ This marks the ninth consecutive month of declining conversions.
§ June and July have a lot of ground to make up.
§ But, August is off to a good start.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
2015 2016 2017
-10% YOY
Immature Months1

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Year-Over-Year Change
Once again, Bachelor’s degrees were the fastest-growing degree level.
§ Doctoral programs grew in August after a long decline.
§ All other degree levels were flat or down year-over-year.
-11%
-7%
-4%
3%
8%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
Undergraduate certificate
Master's degree
Associate's degree
Doctoral degree
Bachelor's degree
Change in Inquiries
August 2017 YoY

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
All of The Big 5 Cities fell year-over-year.
§ LA inched down 3%.
§ Inquiries in the other four cities fell by double digits.
-40%
5%
-7%
-20%
-17%
-3%
-10% -10%
-14%
-21%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Los Angeles, CA Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Atlanta, GA Chicago, IL
Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in August Inquiries
2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

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The Big 5 Programs: August Growth
After some growth last month, all of The Big 5 Programs were flat or down in August.
§ Business Admin (Bachelor’s) was flat.
§ Business Admin (Associate’s) was only down 6%.
§ Medical Assistant, Criminal Justice, and Registered Nursing were down 10% or more.
0%
-6%
-10%
-11%
-12%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
Business Admin:
Bachelor's +
Business Admin:
Associate's
Medical Assistant Criminal Justice Registered Nursing
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
2017 YoY % Change

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-69%
-64%
-56% -54% -52%
-100%
-50%
0%
Curriculum and
Instruction
Electrical/Electronics
Equip. Install and
Repair
Construction
Management
Cosmetology Organizational Behavior
Studies
The Slow 5 Programs
2017 YoY % Change
The Slow 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Slowest Inquiry Growth
All five of the slowest-growing programs1 shrank more than 50%.
§ Curriculum and Instruction is the only repeat from last month.
1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.

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119% 117%
75% 74% 71%
0%
50%
100%
150%
General Studies Liberal Arts and
Sciences/Liberal
Studies
Accounting and
Business/Management
Hospitality
Administration
Human Services
The Fast 5 Programs
2017 YoY % Change
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew more than 70%.
§ The top two, General Studies and Liberal Arts, are both new to the list and grew more than 110%.
§ The next two, also both new programs in the Fast 5, are Accounting/Business Management and Hospitality
Administration.
§ Human Services, which has consistently shown up in the Fast 5, grew 71%.
1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Medical and Health Services Managers: Job Postings
After a 2016 decline, Job Postings for Medical and Health Services Managers are likely to rise.
165,885
206,335
227,412
305,490
286,999
213,180
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD
Job
Postings
Job Postings
Medical and Health Services Managers
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. September 1, 2016-August 31, 2017
SOCs: Medical and Health Services Managers (11-9111) was used in this analysis.

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Medical and Health Services Managers: Salary
Salaries are typically above $50,000 for Medical and Health Services Managers.
3,303
3,327
5,845
10,709
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Less than $35,000
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
More than $75,000
Salary Distribution (Advertised)
§ The mean salary is $79,000.
§ The median salary is $70,000.
Note: Most job postings do not include salary data.
Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level

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Medical and Health Services Managers: Education (Minimum Advertised)
Among job postings that specify education, 62% of Medical and Health Services Managers job
postings cite a Bachelor’s degree.
0%
21%
62%
11%
7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
High school or vocational training
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctoral degree
Most Frequently Cited Education (Minimum Advertised)

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Medical and Health Services Managers: Job Titles
Director of Nursing is the most common title in this field.
Job Titles Count % to Total
Director of Nursing 21,030 7.17%
Medical Director 17,177 5.86%
Clinical Manager 14,588 4.97%
Registered Nurse 12,285 4.19%
Medical Surgical 5,574 1.90%
Assistant Director of Nursing 4,506 1.54%
Health Director 3,771 1.29%
Practice Manager 3,304 1.13%
Health Manager 3,293 1.12%
Licensed Medical Surgical Unit 3,063 1.04%
Total 293,271

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Medical and Health Services Managers: Skill Clusters
Postings for Medical and Health Services Managers require a variety of skills.
§ Outside of Health Care, many Business-related skills are cited.
16%
17%
17%
18%
21%
24%
26%
26%
28%
41%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Business: Quality Assurance and Control
Health Care: Emergency and Intensive Care
Administration: Scheduling
Health Care: Advanced Patient Care
Health Care: Health Care Procedure and Regulation
Information Technology: Microsoft Office and Productivity
Tools
Health Care: Medical Support
Health Care: Basic Patient Care
Finance: Budget Management
Business: People Management
Most Frequently-Cited Skill Clusters in Job Postings
Other
Health Care

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Medical and Health Services Managers: Employers
Anthem Blue Cross is the largest employer, but only accounts for 2.5% of specified postings.
5,014
3,513
3,160
2,048
1,983
1,557
1,544
1,473
1,456
1,444
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Anthem Blue Cross
UnitedHealth Group
Hospital Corporation of America
DaVita Incorporated
Sunrise Senior Living, Inc.
Fresenius
Integris
Aetna Incorporated
Ascension Health
Providence Health & Services
Medical and Health Services Managers
Job Postings by Employer

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Program Scorecard: Student Demand
Student Demand for Health Care Administration is higher than 98% of programs.

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Growth in Student Demand for Health Care Administration is uncertain.
§ Inquiries are falling fast.
§ Google search volumes and IPEDs completions are rising quickly.
Growth?

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Program Scorecard
Student Demand for HCA is high, but so is competition, especially online.
Intense
Competition

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Health Care Administration: Competition
For-profit, online competitors generate hundreds of completions per year.

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Program Scorecard
HCA employment is healthy. Completions are increasingly focused on Master’s Degrees.
Good Job
Volume
Wages?
Emphasis on
Master’s
Degrees

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Program Scorecard

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Key Demand Trends and Observations
§ Online rebounded and remains a bright spot in demand for higher education.
─ Inquiries inched down just 1% vs. a very strong month in 2016.
─ Conversions rose 89% in May, are up for June and July, and will get better.
§ Interest in on-ground programs continued a steep decline.
─ Inquiries fell 12% year-over-year.
─ Conversion fell 10% year-over-year.
§ Budgets are shifting from trades programs to degreed programs.
§ All large programs and cities were flat or down.
§ Health Care Administration is still a good program, but there are better ones.
─ Student Demand is strong
─ But Competition is unusually intense, especially online
─ Jobs are healthy, but wage data is a concern
─ Over 100 programs scored higher: there are probably better options for new programs

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Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836

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Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast
Please join us next month!
October Webcast
(September Results)
Thursday, October 26th at 2:00 PM EDT

2017 August GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education

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2017 August GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education