2018 January GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through January 2018

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
GRAY
For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: Sales@GrayAssociates.com
Who Is Gray?
Program and Market
Evaluation Data
Employment
Placement Rates
Student Demand
Demographics
Wages
Programs Price ProjectsPlace
§ Program Evaluation System
§ Program profiles
§ Program location
§ Market selection
§ Location selection
§ Campus consolidation
§ Price elasticity
§ Price positioning
§ Price optimization
§ Business strategy
§ Strategy implementation
§ Complex analytics
Advanced Analytics
Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
Employer Requirements
X-
walk+

GRAY
Agenda
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
2. Program of the Month: Cybersecurity
3. Program Productivity
4. Summary

GRAY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels
2016 2017 2018
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Total inquiry volumes have been declining for several years.
§ Declining unemployment rate
§ Falling interest in post-secondary education
§ Marketers shifting away from paid inquiries
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

GRAY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
National Inquiries
2016 2017 2018
Inquiries decreased an average of 10% year-over-year in 2017.
§ December was the lowest volume of student inquiries for higher education in 2017.
-10%

GRAY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
National Inquiries
2016 2017 2018
Year-over-year student inquiry volumes rose 3% in January of 2018: the first increase since 2012.
+3%

GRAY
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2017, conversion rates were well above our 2014 baseline.
§ Q3 2017 beat the baseline by 50%.
§ Q4 2017 regressed, still beating the baseline by 18%, it will likely improve a little as stragglers convert.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2. Total includes unknown source type.
+50

GRAY
Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For October inquiries, total conversions are up 11% year-over-year.
§ October has already surpassed 2016 levels.
§ November and December are currently down 11% and 20% year-over-year, but are expected to approach 2016
conversion rates.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Total Inquiry Conversions
2016 2017 2018
+11% YoY
Immature Months1

GRAY
2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.49
2017 $45.38 $45.28 $45.50 $45.38 $45.52 $45.79 $45.23 $44.57 $45.09 $46.08 $45.92 $46.73
2018 $47.27 - - - - - - - - - - -
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
$50
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
The average price of an external inquiry is $45.70.
§ In January, prices were up 4.2% year-over-year.
§ For 10 out of the past 12 months, the average price paid for an inquiry has been above the prior year’s level.
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
+4.2%
YoY

GRAY
Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

GRAY
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs
All Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeOn average, student demand for online programs grew 6% year-over-year in 2017.
+6%

GRAY
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs jumped 14% year-over-year in January.
§ After three consecutive declining months, volumes have grown in each of the past four months.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
+14%

GRAY
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
2016 2017 2018
Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions for online higher education programs increased 3.5% in October.
§ 14 of the past 15 months prior to November 2017 have shown an increase in conversions.
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
Immature Months1
+3.5% YoY

GRAY
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
On average, student demand for on-campus programs fell 14% year-over-year in 2017.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
2016 2017 2018
-14%

GRAY
In January, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 11% year-over-year.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
2016 2017 2018
-11% YoY

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs fell 21% year-over-year in October.
§ This marks the 14th consecutive month of declining conversions.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
2016 2017 2018
-21% YoY
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
Immature Months1

GRAY
Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

GRAY
Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Year-Over-Year Change
In January, higher degree levels outperformed the lower-level degrees.
-10%
-8%
11%
16%
20%
-35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25%
Associate's degree
Undergraduate certificate
Bachelor's degree
Doctor's degree
Master's degree
Change in Inquiries
January 2018 YoY

GRAY
Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
3. Summary

GRAY
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities, Trailing 12 Month Results
For the 12 months ending on January 31, inquiries in all of The Big 5 Cities declined at least 7%.
-18% -17%
-12%
-7% -7%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
Houston, TX Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Los Angeles, CA
Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012
Change in Trailing Twelve Month Inquiries vs. Prior Twelve Months
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

GRAY
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
In January 2018, the decline slowed in The Big 5 Cities and a couple of cities grew.
§ Chicago was down the most this month (-13%), after falling 15% YOY in December.
-7%
-11%
-9%
-10%
-30%
5%
-3%
5%
-13%
-1%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL Houston, TX
Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in January Inquiries
2017 YoY % Change 2018 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

GRAY
The Big 5 Programs: Trailing Twelve Month Growth
For the 12 months ending on January 31, all of The Big 5 Programs declined at least 17%.
-17% -18%
-20% -21%
-23%-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Medical Assistant Registered Nursing Business Admin:
Bachelor's +
Criminal Justice Business Admin:
Associate's
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
Change in Trailing Twelve Month Inquiries vs. Prior Twelve Months

GRAY
The Big 5 Programs: January Growth Year-over-Year
Only two of The Big 5 Programs fell in January.
15%
2%
0%
-9%
-14%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Business Admin:
Bachelor's +
Criminal Justice Business Admin:
Associate's
Registered Nursing Medical Assistant
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
2018 YoY % Change

GRAY
278%
126%
82% 73% 66%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Computer
Programming
Health Care
Administration
Computer Science Cybersecurity Human Services
The Fast 5 Programs
2018 YoY % Change
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew 60% or more.
§ Computer Programming, Healthcare Administration, and Human Services are repeats from last month.
§ Healthcare and Computer-related programs continue to grow.
1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.

GRAY
Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

GRAY
Cybersecurity: Job Postings
In 2017, Job Postings mentioning cybersecurity were up 39% year-over-year.
73,621
80,137
131,609
138,509
192,474
29,238
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD
Job
Postings
Job Postings
Cybersecurity
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2018. February 1, 2017-January 31, 2018
Job postings that included as cybersecurity or cyber security were used in this analysis.

GRAY
Cybersecurity: Salary
Salaries are typically more than $75,000 for Computer Programmer-related jobs.
551
559
1,638
7,993
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Less than $35,000
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
More than $75,000
Salary Distribution (Advertised)
§ The mean salary is $100,000.
§ The median salary is $102,000.
Note: Most job postings do not include salary data.
Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level

GRAY
Cybersecurity: Education (Minimum Advertised)
Among job postings that specify education, over 80% cite a Bachelor’s degree.
9%
4%
83%
3%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
High school or vocational training
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctoral degree
Most Frequently Cited Minimum Education

GRAY
Cybersecurity: Employer Requirements
0.99
0.99
0.99
0.99
0.99
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.74
0.74
0.74
0.69
0.69
0.63
0.63
0.55
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10
Debug computer programs, software, or systems
Maintain complex computer databases
Maintain computer software or code
Solve software problems
Troubleshoot computer database problems
Assist users with software or hardware problems
Solve computer hardware problems
Troubleshoot computer network problems
Design data processing systems
Design data security systems
Write computer programs or code
Maintain network systems
Troubleshoot computer hardware problems
Develop computer or information security policies or procedures
Develop computer, network, or database policies, procedures,…
Develop records management systems
Configure computer networks
Install software applications
Develop simple financial data repositories or databases
Develop simple informational data repositories or databases
Cybersecurity: Primary Work Activities
Fit with Job
Low Fit with Job High
Source: SkillEngine, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
CIPs: Cyber Security/Information Assurance (11.1003)

GRAY
Program Scorecard: Student Demand
Cybersecurity has more inquiries than 95% of other programs. Inquiries are split for modality.

GRAY
Program Scorecard: Competition
There is significant competition.

GRAY
Competitors: Cybersecurity
Among the largest programs, there is a mix of sectors and award levels.
Campus Sector State
Award
Level 2014 2015 2016
University of Maryland-University
College Public, 4-year or above MD Masters 510 614 577
College Public, 4-year or above MD Bachelors 316 440 465
Western Governors University Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above UT Bachelors 186 287 406
University of Phoenix-Arizona Private for-profit, 4-year or above AZ Bachelors 540 454 298
Western Governors University Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above UT Masters 337 282 246
University of Phoenix-Arizona Private for-profit, 4-year or above AZ Certificate 20 24 230
Edmonds Community College Public, 2-year WA Certificate 35 56 202
College Public, 4-year or above MD
Postbaccalaure
ate Certificate 255 163 183
American Public University System Private for-profit, 4-year or above WV Bachelors 142 175 180
Baker College of Flint Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above MI Bachelors 26 135 139
ECPI University Private for-profit, 4-year or above NC Bachelors 170 125 132
Capella University Private for-profit, 4-year or above MN Masters 128 109 112
Naval Postgraduate School Public, 4-year or above CA
Postbaccalaure
ate Certificate 71 85 109
Anne Arundel Community College Public, 2-year MD Associates 86 89 103
Clover Park Technical College Public, 4-year or above WA Certificate 62 93 103
St Petersburg College Public, 4-year or above FL Certificate 13 36 102
American Public University System Private for-profit, 4-year or above WV Masters 62 91 101
ECPI University Private for-profit, 4-year or above VA Bachelors 124 91 96
Anne Arundel Community College Public, 2-year MD Certificate 256 300 88
Wilmington University Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above DE Bachelors 58 86 78

GRAY
Program Scorecard: Employment and Fit
There is a large number of job postings, primarily for people with a Bachelor’s degree.

GRAY
Program Scorecard

GRAY
Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

GRAY
National Program Productivity
Only 6% of programs have over 99 completions. 48% have fewer than 10.
6%
7%
39%
48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Greater than 99 50-99 10-49 Less than 10
Percentage of
Programs or Completions
Program Size
(Number of Completions)
Percentage of Programs
Source: Gray analysis of IPEDS completions

GRAY
45% of students graduate from the largest programs.
45%
18%
30%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Percentage of
Program Size
Percentage of Completions

GRAY
6%
7%
39%
48%
45%
18%
30%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Percentage of
Program Size
Percentage of Programs Percentage of Completions

GRAY
Western Governors University – Enrollment Growth
WGU’s enrollment grew an average of 28% annually from 2005 to 2016.
8,735
11,797 13,362 14,109
19,399
33,950
45,879
58,087
67,013
83,977
101,229
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
Annual Enrollment
Western Governors University
Source: IPEDS

GRAY
Western Governors University - FAQ
Western Governors University was founded in 1997, launched its first degree programs in 1999, and has quickly
grown to become one of the largest institutions of higher education in the U.S.
§ WGU has achieved double-digit growth in enrollment and completions.
─ From 2005-2016 enrollment grew an average of 28% annually, from less than 10,00 students in 2005-2006 to over 100,000
students in 2015-2016.
─ Completions have grown an average of 39% annually since 2010, increasing from 2,271 in 2010 to 16,444 in 2016.
─ WGU’s largest program is Registered Nursing (Bachelor’s), with 4,753 completions in 2016, up from just 136 completions in
2010.
§ WGU’s programs are exclusively online.
§ The university targets working professionals.
─ 92% of undergraduate students were 25 years or older in the fall of 2016.
─ 97% of graduate students were 25 years or older.
§ In the fall of 2016, 64% of students were women and 36% were men.

GRAY
Western Governors University – Program Productivity
52%
7%
24%
17%
96%
2% 3% 0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Percentage of
Program Size
Western Governors University's
Program Productivity
Percentage of Programs Percentage of Completions

GRAY
Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
2. Program of the Month: Computer Programming
4. Summary

GRAY
Key Demand Trends and Observations
§ For the first time since 2012, inquiry volumes increased, rising 3%.
§ Conversion rates and conversions are rising.
─ Q3 conversion rates jumped 50% vs. Gray’s benchmark.
─ Q4 will also exceed our benchmark, but by a much narrower margin
─ October conversions rose 11%
§ Online programs led the turnaround.
─ Inquiries for online programs grew 14% YoY, up from 6% YoY growth last month
─ Conversions rose 3.5%
§ On-ground continued a rapid decline.
─ Inquiries for on-ground fell 11%
─ Conversions dropped 21%
§ Program Productivity is a serious issue–and an opportunity
─ Adding a single large program could increase enrollment by hundreds of students.
─ Reducing the number of small programs could free-up funds to re-invest in growth.
─ Refining the portfolio will also better-align programs with careers and community needs.
§ Gray’s Program Evaluation System is an increasingly robust tool.
─ Multiple data sources on student demand, employment, and competition
─ Now includes data on employer needs, including work activities and tools

GRAY
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836

GRAY
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast
Please join us next month!
March Webcast
(February Results)
Thursday, March 29th at 2:00 PM EDT

2018 January GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Similar to 2018 January GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education

Similar to 2018 January GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education (12)

More from Gray Associates, Inc

More from Gray Associates, Inc (10)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

2018 January GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education