2015 September GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Educational Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through September 2015

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
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GRAY
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GrayReports tracks demand for higher education.
§  Today’s webinar and monthly industry trend reports are free.
§  Paid subscribers receive custom monthly reports for their markets and programs.
§  Paid subscribers also have on-line access to detailed data for their programs and markets.
Over 41 million qualified inquiries
January 2012 to the present
Over 800,000 new inquiries in September 2015
Over 200 programs with over 10,000 inquiries
Over 300 cities with over 10,000 inquiries

GRAY
Key Demand Trends and Observations
For the first time since May 2014, year-over-year inquiry volume increased.
1.  September inquiries rose 3% year-over-year.
§  Internal/Branded inquiries rose a whopping 14%
§  Inquiries for On-line programs rose 20%; On-ground dropped only 3.5%
§  Three of the five largest cities grew
§  Higher-level degrees continued to outperform
2.  September conversion rates beat 2015 norms and may exceed 2014 results.
3.  Price-per-inquiry rose from $43.44 to $45.42.
4.  Channels are shifting quickly.
§  Traditional channels (e.g., inbound phone) fell by double digits
§  Social media is booming, up 347%
§  Rumors of PPI’s death are grossly exaggerated—PPI rose 17%
5.  Gray’s analysis of student demand, employment, and competition identified the top 10
programs nationwide:
§  HVAC ranks 4th
§  Electrician ranks 8th

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National Inquiry Trends
2.  Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs
3.  Views by Program and Segment
4.  High-Potential Programs and Markets
5.  Summary

GRAY
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
In September, student inquiries for higher education programs increased 3% year-over-year.
§  May 2014 was the last month in which there was year-over-year growth.
§  In total, 2015 inquiries have fallen 6% year-over-year.
§  September broke this long series of declines.
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015
3% YOY

GRAY
Branded Inquiries: Overall Results
Branded inquiries (e.g., organic search) rose 14% in September.
§  Year-to-date, branded inquiries for education programs have risen 3%.
§  May, June and July results trailed last year.
§  August and September were up, and may be the start of a positive trend.
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
National Branded Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015
14% YOY

GRAY
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
3.6%
3.1%
2.0%2.8%
2.5%
1.8%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
Education Industry Conversion Rates
2014 2015 Average Immature Conversion Rate
Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates
Conversion rates so far in 2015 are down 0.3% year-over-year—but they are trending up.
§  Year to date, the average mature month conversion rate is 3.2% down from 3.5 last year
§  All immature months are ahead of the averages for their month.
§  July and August are poised to reach last year’s levels.
Immature Months1
2015 Mature Month
Average: 3.2%

GRAY
Average Price for Pay-per-Lead Inquiries
In September prices continued to rise, reaching $45.42.
§  In 2015, PPI prices have risen every month, except June.
§  Year-to-date average prices for PPI inquiries have risen $1.35 year-over-year.
§  In 2015, the average price is $44.
§  But, September prices jumped 3%, to approximately $45.50.
$43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63
$45.07 $44.75
$45.42
$41.72 $41.81 $41.70
$42.45
$40.94
$44.23 $44.25 $44.00
$45.34 $45.41
$44.79
$42.18
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
All Programs and Award Levels
2015 2014
Note: PPI means“Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

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Agenda
5.  Summary

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Inquiries for On-Line Programs
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeIn September, inquiries for on-line higher education programs rose 20% year-over-year.
§  Year-to-date, inquiries for on-line programs are now down just 3% year-over-year.
§  September marks the first year-over-year increase since April—and the largest increase since December.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Line Programs
2014 2015
20% YOY

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Line Programs
In June, conversions for on-line programs dropped 25%, immature months (Jul-Sept) are trending up.
§  While June fell sharply, August and September are likely to show year-over-year growth.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Line Programs
2014 2015
Immature Months1
-25% YOY

GRAY
Inquiries for On-Ground Programs
Inquiries for on-campus higher-education programs nearly reached last year’s levels.
§  Inquiries for on-ground programs have fallen 10% or more every month since February.
§  Year-to-date, student demand for on-ground programs has fallen 12% behind 2014 levels.
§  In contrast, September 2015 declined just 3.5%.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Ground Programs
2014 2015
-3.5% YOY

GRAY
The 2015 decline in conversions for on-ground higher education programs has accelerated.
§  June matured 41% behind last year’s levels.
§  Excluding immature months (July through September), 2015 is 36% behind 2014 levels.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs
2014 2015
Immature Months1
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs
-41% YOY

GRAY
Agenda
5.  Summary

GRAY
Largest Programs: September Growth
Inquiry volumes for Registered Nursing grew much faster than any other large program.
§  Student demand for Registered Nursing jumped 80% in September.
§  The inquiry volumes for Health Care Admin rose slightly year-over-year.
§  Business Admin, Medical Assisting and Criminal Justice all dropped more than 12% year-over-year.
29%
-25% -20%
-32%
-64%
80%
7%
-12% -13%
-24%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Registered Nursing/
Registered Nurse.
Health/Health Care
Administration/Management.
Business Administration and
Management, General.
Medical/Clinical Assistant. Criminal Justice/Police
Science.
Demand for Higher Education
Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries
Five Largest Programs
2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change

GRAY
-43% -36% -28% -31%
3%
844%
184%
140% 118% 99%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
900%
Curriculum and Instruction. Educational Leadership and
Administration, General.
Medical Insurance Coding
Specialist/Coder.
Special Education and
Teaching, General.
Psychology, General.
Five Fastest-Growing Programs
The 5 Fastest-Growing Programs in August
In September, all five of the fastest-growers at least doubled their year-over-year inquiry volume.
§  Three of the five programs are in the education sector.
§  After a drop in 2014, inquiries for curriculum and instruction programs grew over 800%.
1.  Includes only the top 75 programs (ranked on total inquiry volume since January 2012). Minimum of 1,000 inquiries in 2014.

GRAY
Student Inquiries: Largest Cities
In the five cities with the highest number of inquiries for higher education, volume dropped in September.
§  Philadelphia and Atlanta experienced the smallest decline at 18%.
§  Los Angeles remains volatile, posting a 27% decline in 2015 compared to an 18% increase in 2014.
-4%
3%
11%
-6%
18%
-18% -18% -20% -20%
-27%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Philadelphia, PA Atlanta, GA New York, NY Chicago, IL Los Angeles, CA
Top Five Cities for Inquiries
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

GRAY
Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries
With a 21% surge in inquiries for higher education, Oklahoma City had the fastest inquiry growth in the US.
§  The student demand for higher education jumped over 7% in all five cities.
§  Year-over-year, Oklahoma City was the only city of the five to record back-to-back increases.
1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.
5%
-29%
-8% -10%
-24%
21%
10% 9% 8% 7%
-70%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
Oklahoma City, OK New Orleans, LA Las Vegas, NV Houston, TX Tucson, AZ
Five Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries

GRAY
-17%
-10%
-8%
-3%
0%
2%
3%
15%
68%
-35% -10% 15% 40% 65%
Associate's
Certificates
On-campus Programs
External Inquiries
PhD
Online Programs
Branded Inquiries
Bachelor's
Master's
Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Inquiries
2014 vs. 2015 (July – September)
Inquiry Volumes by Category – Trailing 3-Months
Strong growth for graduate degrees is the highlight of the last three months.
§  Demand for Certificate and Associate’s programs were well below average.
§  On-ground programs declined 8%, while on-line programs increased 3%.
§  Interest in Bachelor’s degrees is up 15%.
Monthly Average

GRAY
347%
252%
57%
38%
17%
-4%
-7%
-8%
-11%
-20%
-21%
-22%
-30%
-36%
-68%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%
Internal: Social Media
Branded: All Other Internal
Branded: Email
Branded: Organic
External: PPI
External: Affiliate - PPC
Branded: Interactive
Branded: Website
Branded: PPC
Branded: Referral
External: Affiliate
Branded: Display
Branded: PPC - Inbound Call
Branded: Offline Media
Branded: Inbound Phone
Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Inquiries by Channel
Inquiry Volumes by Channel in Trailing 3-Months
Social media, Email and Organic inquiries are far outpacing other channels.

GRAY
Sustainers vs. Strugglers: Inquiry Volume
For the first time in over 20 months, the strugglers outpaced the sustainers – growing 8% in September 2015
compared to a decline of 3% for the sustainers.
-12% -15% -15% -12%
0%
-3%
-13% -16%
-31%
-44% -46%
-27%
49% 45%
32%
11% 11%
6%
-2%
-8%
-3% -3% -7% -5%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
Sustainers vs. Strugglers
Year-over-Year Change in Inquiry Volumes 2014
-15%
-11%
-9%
-4%
-20%
-12%
-14%
-8%
8%
-3%
-5%
0% 1%
-2%
12%
14%
9%
-3%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Year-over-Year Change in Inquiry Volumes 2015
Strugglers
Sustainers

GRAY
Agenda
5.  Summary

GRAY
Program Evaluation System
What programs should
we“Stop, Start, Sustain,
or Grow?”

GRAY
High Potential Programs
For Certificate and Associate’s programs, HVAC and Electrician programs made the top 10.
§  In this example, we focused scoring on Certificate and Associate’s programs nationally.
§  Over 800 programs received scores ranging from +22 to -30.
Program 1
Program 2
Program 3
Program 5
Program 6
Program 7
Program 9
Program 10
HVAC
Electrician
22
20
19
19
19
19
17
16
16
15

GRAY
High Potential Program: HVAC Technology/Technician
HVAC scored a 19, with 95th percentile inquiry volumes and completions.

GRAY
High Potential Markets for HVAC
The Gray Market Evaluation System identifies Charlotte, NC as one of the top 10 cities for HVAC.
Market 1
Market 2
Market 3
Market 5
Market 6
Market 8
Market 9
Market 10
Market 4
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
22
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
21
21
HVAC

GRAY
Employment Market Research
WANTED Analytics confirms that Charlotte-Gastonia is one of the hardest places to hire HVAC technicians.
HVAC
20 US Cities with Highest Hiring Diﬃculty

GRAY
High Potential Program: Electrician
Electrician scored a 16, with strong inquiry volume, completions, job openings, and jobs per graduate.

GRAY
High Potential Markets for Electrician
Houston, Texas is one of the top 10 markets for an Electrician program.
Market 1
Market 2
Market 3
Market 5
Market 6
Market 7
Market 9
Market 10
Market 4
Houston-The Woodlands TX
26
25
23
23
22
22
22
22
22
21
Electrician

GRAY
Program Employers
Once attractive programs are identified, we research employers, skills and certifications.
Excerpt from WANTED Skills TableExcerpt from WANTED Employer Table

GRAY
Agenda
4.  Program Evaluation System
5.  Summary

GRAY
Key Demand Trends and Observations
For the first time since May 2014, year-over-year inquiry volume increased.
1.  September inquiries rose 3% year-over-year.
§  Internal/Branded inquiries rose a whopping 14%
§  Inquiries for On-line programs rose 20%; On-ground dropped only 3.5%
§  Three of the five largest cities grew
§  Higher-level degrees continued to outperform
2.  September conversion rates beat 2015 norms and may exceed 2014 results.
3.  Price-per-inquiry rose from $43.44 to $45.42.
4.  Channels are shifting quickly.
§  Traditional channels (e.g., inbound phone) fell by double digits
§  Social media is booming, up 347%
§  Rumors of PPI’s death are grossly exaggerated—PPI rose 17%
5.  Gray’s analysis of student demand, employment, and competition identified the top 10
programs nationwide:
§  HVAC ranks 4th
§  Electrician ranks 8th
6.  You can accurately evaluate all of your current and potential programs, by campus.

GRAY
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webinars
Please join us next month!
November Webinar
(October Results)
Thursday, November 19th at 2:00 PM EDT

GRAY
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
617-366-2836

2015 September GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

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2015 September GrayReports - Student Demand Trends