2016 December GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through December 2016

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
GRAY
For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: Sales@GrayAssociates.com
Who Is Gray?
Program and Market
Evaluation Data
Employment
Placement RatesStudent Inquiries
Demographics
Job Postings
Programs Price ProjectsPlace
§  Program portfolio
strategy
§  Program profiles
§  Program development
§  City targeting
§  Location selection
§  Campus consolidation
§  Price elasticity
§  Price positioning
§  Price optimization
§  Business strategy
§  Strategy implementation
§  Acquisition analysis
§  Complex analytics
Advanced Analytics
Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
Gray’s Program
Evaluation
System is available as a
SaaS solution.
Enhanced Crosswalks

GRAY
Agenda
1.  Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Google Searches
1.  National
2.  Online and On-Campus
3.  Degree and Channel
4.  City and Program
2.  Job Postings
3.  Summary

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Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
We will share data from 2014, 2015 and 2016.
§  GrayReports covers January 2012 through the present.
§  We add between 600,000 to 1 million qualified inquiries to the dataset each month.
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016

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0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
National Inquiries
2014 2015 2016
Inquiries have decreased an average of 9% year-over-year in 2016.
-9%

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0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
National Inquiries
2014 2015 2016
In December, inquiry volumes decreased 15%.
-15%
YoY

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Google Program Search Volumes: Overall Results
In November, Google Search volumes grew 20%.
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
National Google Search Volumes*
Program Keyword Data
2015 2016
20% YoY
Source: Data from Google.
*Timeframe: Dec 2015 to Nov 2016. Gray currently has program search volume data for 200 CIPs.

GRAY
External Inquiries: Overall Results
External (or PPL) inquiries for higher education have dropped an average of 15% in 2016.
§  In December, external inquiries fell 20%.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
National External Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016
-15%

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Branded Inquiries
Branded inquiries are down for the first time in eight months.
§  In 2016, the average monthly growth rate for branded inquiries was 6%.
§  But, branded inquiries shrank 1% in December.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
National Branded Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016
-1%
YoY

GRAY
Google Brand Search Volumes: Overall Results
In November, Google Brand Search Volumes declined 1%, significantly less growth than we
observed in program search volumes earlier.
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
National Google Search Volumes*
Brand Keyword Data 2015 2016
-1% YoY
*Timeframe: Dec 2015 to Nov 2016. Gray currently has Brand search volume data for 70 Brands.

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Google Brand Search Volumes: Ten Largest Brands in Nation
In 2016, University of California - Los Angeles was the most searched brand Nationally.
§  Despite significant loss in enrollment over the years, University of Phoenix still made the top 5.
§  The 10 largest Brands accounted for 52% of the total Gray’s Google search volumes.**
0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000
University of California - Los Angeles
Stanford University
Harvard University
University of Phoenix
Ohio State University-Main Campus
Yale University
University of Michigan-Ann Arbor
Grand Canyon University
Emory University
Ivy Tech Community College
Google Keyword Searches
(Dec 2015-Nov 2016)
Ten Largest Brands in the U.S.
** Gray currently has Brand search volume data for 70 Brands.
Public, 4 Year
Not for Profit, 4 Year
Public, 2 Year
For Profit, 4 Year

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80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2016, conversion rates seem to be stabilizing, close to 2014 levels.
§  Q3 2016, now near maturity, is now 9% above the Q1 2014 level.
§  Rates may be stabilizing 5-10% above baseline.
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be
counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2.  Total includes unknown source type.
+9%

GRAY
Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For September inquiries, total conversions fell 15% year-over-year.
§  It now takes six months for conversions to fully mature, however 15% is too wide a gap to catch last year’s
levels.
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
Immature Months1
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Total Inquiry Conversions
2014 2015 2016
-15% YoY

GRAY
2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.47 $44.79 $42.18
2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75
2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.55
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
The average price of an External inquiry had been fairly stable.
§  In December the average price jumped to over $45.50, the highest price since February.
§  December 2016 had the second highest average price over the past three years.
Note: PPI means“Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
+1.8%

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
2.  Job Postings
3.  Summary

GRAY
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs
2014 2015 2016
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeYear-to-date, inquiries for online programs are flat year-over-year.
+0.5%

GRAY
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
2014 2015 2016
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeFor the second consecutive month, inquiries for online programs grew 5%.
§  Online inquiries have now increased in five of the last six months.
+5% YoY

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions for online higher education programs increased 5% in September.
§  This is the second consecutive increase in conversions.
§  October and November already passed last year’s levels and December looks as if it will as well.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
2014 2015 2016
Immature Months1
1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
+5% YoY

GRAY
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
The negative trend in inquiries for on-campus academic programs in higher education continues.
§  2016 has fallen short of year-ago levels by an average of 15%.
§  In December, inquiries for on-campus higher-education programs dropped 19% year-over-year.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
2014 2015 2016
-19% YoY

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs fell 13% YoY in September.
§  June, July, and August each gained another 1% on last year’s levels.
§  The three immature months have a lot of ground to make up in order to outperform 2015.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
2014 2015 2016
-13% YOY
Immature Months1

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
2.  Job Postings
3.  Summary

GRAY
Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Trailing Three Months
Post-Master’s certificates continued to be the fastest-growing degree.
§  All other degrees decreased, but to our surprise, lower-level degrees continue to outperform the other
advanced degrees.
-19%
-16%
-9%
-6%
-4%
74%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Master's degree
Bachelor's degree
Doctor's degree
Undergraduate certificate
Associate's degree
Post-master's certificate
Quarterly Change in Inquiries
2016/2015 (October through December)

GRAY
Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months
Once again, Aﬃliate – PPC was the fastest-growing channel for student inquiries.
§  Six diﬀerent Branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter.
-67%
-46%
-36%
-25%
-20%
-10%
-4%
-3%
3%
11%
17%
33%
34%
44%
342%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%
PPC - Inbound Call: Branded
Interactive: Branded
PPL: External
Display: Branded
Email: Branded
Referral: Branded
PPC: Branded
Affiliate: External
All Other Internal: Branded
Website: Branded
Inbound Phone: Branded
Social Media: Branded
Offline Media: Branded
Organic: Branded
Affiliate - PPC: External
Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel
(October through December YoY)

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
2.  Job Postings
3.  Summary

GRAY
The Big 5 Programs: December Growth
Inquiries for the Big Five shrank over 15%–accounting for 63% of the total decline in inquiries.
§  Registered Nursing performed the best, but still dropped 17%.
§  Medical Assisting decreased 25%.
§  Criminal Justice/Police Science was not far behind MA, down 27%.
§  The two business programs continued to drop the most, both down more than 30%.
-17%
-25%
-27%
-34%
-37%-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Registered Nursing Medical Assistant Criminal Justice Business Admin:
Associate's -
Business Admin:
Bachelor's +
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in December Inquiries
2016 YoY % Change

GRAY
Google Program Search Volumes: Ten Largest Programs in Nation
In 2016, Nursing Assistant was the most searched program nationally.
§  Half of the 10 programs with the highest search volume are in the healthcare space, particularly Nursing.
§  The 10 largest programs accounted for 32% of Gray’s Google search volumes.*
0 3,000,000 6,000,000
Nursing Assistant/Aide and Patient Care Assistant/Aide
Business Administration and Management, General
Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse
Medical/Clinical Assistant
Cosmetology/Cosmetologist, General
Law
Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse Training
Accounting
Culinary Arts/Chef Training
Truck and Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle Operator and
(Dec 2015-Nov 2016)
Ten Largest Programs in the U.S.
Health
Other
*Gray currently has program search volume data for about 200 CIPs.

GRAY
53%
63%
-31%
-12%
258%
155%
113%
77% 71%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Human Services Medical Insurance
Coding Specialist/
Coder.
Christian Studies. Organizational Behavior
Studies.
Welding Technology/
Welder.
The Fast 5 Programs
2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew more than 70%.
§  At over 250%, Human Services grew the fastest for the third consecutive month.
§  Medical Insurance Coding was also the second-fastest growing last month.
§  The other three programs are new to the list.
1.  Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012. 2. May reflect competitive marketing, or reporting by Gray’s data suppliers.

GRAY
Google Program Search Volumes: Five Largest States
In 2016, the most searches for programs were conducted in California (13% of Nation).
§  These five largest States accounted for 40% of all searches**
0 3,000,000 6,000,000 9,000,000 12,000,000 15,000,000
California
Texas
New York
Florida
Illinois
(Dec 2015-Nov 2016)*
Five Largest States
*Timeframe: Dec 2015 to Nov 2016. ** Gray currently has program search volume data for about 200 CIPs.

GRAY
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
All five cities in The Big 5 decreased year-over-year.
§  New York performed the best this month, but still declined 8% compared to December 2015.
§  Despite the negative numbers, they are better than November’s numbers when Los Angeles, Atlanta, and
Chicago were each down more than 30%.
-13%
-8%
-22%
-6%
-20%
-8%
-10%
-16%
-23% -23%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
New York, NY Philadelphia, PA Los Angeles, CA Atlanta, GA Chicago, IL
Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012
2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

GRAY
Job Postings: The Big 5 Cities
In 2016, four of the five cities with the highest number of job postings grew.
§  Atlanta showed the most job growth, while Houston job postings dropped.
Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher).
Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staﬃng Agencies.
6%
-9%
19%
23%
15%
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
New York, NY Houston, TX San Francisco, CA Atlanta, GA Los Angeles, CA
2016 YoY Job Posting Growth
Five Cities with the Most Job Postings
Source:

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
2.  Job Postings
3.  Summary

GRAY
Job Postings: Predictive Power
Job postings in 2014 were a very reliable predictor of job postings in 2016.
y = 0.8761x
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
2016
Job Postings
2014 Job Postings
Job Postings
By 8-Digit SOC
Correlation: 0.969
Registered Nurses
Retail Salespersons
Managers, All Other
Security Guards
Source:

GRAY
Job Postings: Ten Largest Occupations
In 2016, Registered Nursing had the most job postings requiring a college degree.
§  Half of the Top 10 occupations are manager roles.
§  Heathcare and IT filled out the rest of the top 10.
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
Registered Nurses
Managers, All Other
Computer Occupations, All Other
Software Developers, Applications
Medical and Health Services Managers
Sales Managers
General and Operations Managers
Human Resources Specialists
Management Analysts
Financial Managers
Job Postings in 2016
Ten Largest Occupations
Managers
Healthcare
IT
Source:

GRAY
Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Occupations
The fastest-growing occupations are dominated by healthcare and education.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education
Pharmacists
Medical Equipment Repairers
Education Administrators, Preschool and
Special Education Teachers, All Other
Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists
Radiologic Technologists
Chemists
Respiratory Therapists
Speech-Language Pathologists
Ten Fastest-Growing Occupations in the U.S.
Education
Healthcare
Source:

GRAY
Job Postings: Most Requested Specialized Skills
Four of the 10 most requested specialized skills were for the Microsoft Oﬃce Suite.
§  All of the most requested skills are related to business or administrative tasks.
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
Microsoft Excel
Microsoft Office
Budgeting
Scheduling
Supervisory Skills
Customer Service
Project Management
Microsoft Powerpoint
Sales
Microsoft Word
Ten Most-Requested Specialized Skills in the US
Microsoft
Other
Source:

GRAY
Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Skill Clusters
Half of the 10 fastest-growing specialized skill clusters relate to healthcare.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Supply Chain and Logistics: Inventory
Health Care: Pharmacy
Finance: Cash Management
Health Care: Medical Procedure and Regulation
Health Care: Medical Records
Marketing and Public Relations: Packaging and
Administration: Office Machines
Health Care: Patient Reception
Health Care: Medical Billing and Coding
Finance: Financial Advisement
Ten Fastest-Growing Skill Clusters
Other
Healthcare
Source:

GRAY
Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Certifications
Nationally, RN licensure was the most requested certification in 2016.
§  Half of the most-requested certifications were related to an Allied Health occupation.
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000120,000
Registered Nurse
Security Clearance
Project Management Certification (e.g., PMP)
Basic Cardiac Life Support Certification
Certified Public Accountant (CPA)
Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS)
Series 7
American Heart Association Certificate
Cert. Info. Sys. Security. Pro. (CISSP)
Nurse Practitioner
Ten Most-Requested Certifications in the U.S.
Other
Healthcare
Source:

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
2.  Job Postings
3.  Summary

GRAY
Key Demand Trends and Observations
§  External Inquiries continued to drop.
§  But, overall Google program search volumes increased.
§  Branded fell, but slightly, in both inquiries and search volume.
§  Inquiries and conversions for online programs are growing.
§  Inquiry growth for graduate programs has begun to decline.
§  Health Care, IT, Education, and Management dominate job postings.
§  Microsoft Oﬃce is a critical skill set.

GRAY
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836

GRAY
Webcast 1 of 4: Thursday, February 2nd at 2:00 PM EST. Signup at GrayAssociates.com
Webcast Series: Best Practices in Program Portfolio Evaluation

GRAY
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast
Please join us next month!
February Webcast
(January Results)
Thursday, February 23rd at 2:00 PM EDT

2016 December GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

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2016 December GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education