Technology Forecast for Solar PV Presentation 2014

1. Solar Photovoltaic TechnologyTechnology Forecast and AssessmentStuart RockEngineering Science, SeniorApril 14, 2014

2. What is Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Tech?
Generating electricity from the Sun
Photoelectric Effect:
Absorb photons of light and release electrons
Capture of free electrons yields electric current
ELECTRICITY!
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2002/solarcells/

3. Not a new topic, been around for a while
Discovered by Will Adams, with Selenium, 1876
Albert Einstein, Nobel Prize, 1905
(Nature of light and the photoelectric effect. Basis of PV)
Bell Labs, viable (6%) PV cells, Silicon, 1954
Thin Films –Concentrated PV –Spectrum Split PV
http://inhabitat.com/sharps-concentrator-solar- cell-sets-43-5-conversion-efficiency-record/
http://www.technologyreview.com/feat uredstory/513671/ultra-efficient-solar-power/
http://cdn.phys.org/newman/gfx/news/hires/2011/15173.jpg
Cadmium Telluride (CdTe)
15-25%
35-45%
9-11%

4. Who would be interested in Solar PV?
•Real estate
•Construction
•Transportation
•Oil and gas (fossil fuels)
•Carbon neutral lifestyle
•Save money
•Professor Van Schaack
•Eric Woodard
http://d2mtr37y39tpbu.cloudfront.net/wp- content/uploads/2012/10/energy-hungry-american- high.png

5. Answering the specific question of:
In what year will solar PV electricity be cheaper than grid electricity produced from fossil fuels?
When will solar PV generated electricity account for 30% of electricity production in the United States?
When will the capacity of solar PV cells be enough to generate 100% of the electricity in the United States
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6. Current landscape of solar PV
Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector
http://dupress.com/articles/energy-independence/

7. Trend
Monitoring
Scenarios & Assessment
Methods used in Solar PV Forecast
-Cost per Kilowatt-hour of Solar PV generated electricity
-Total solar investment, ann. production, installed capacity
-Flexible glass and roll-to-roll processing
-Various promising methods of solar production of electricity
-Factors having the greatest effect on solar PV, in next 10 yrs -Electricity being freely available to throughout the world

8. Trend Forecast Findings
In the year 2020:
-Over $100 Billion invested in solar PV
-Capable of installing over 1,000 Gwhper year
-Able to produce 5,000 Gwhof electricity per year

9. Trend Forecast Findings Cont.
------------------
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$.19
--------
$.12

10. Monitoring Forecast Findings
Critical developments to monitor
•Conversion efficiencies
•Manufacturing abilities
•Production scale
•Costs, size, and weight considerations
“If you build it, they will come”

11. Scenarios and Assessment Findings
Four Scenarios Considered Economic & Technological
1.Speculation Runs High
2.Sun is Setting on Solar
3.More like So-No-More
4.(KEY) Solar Golden Age
Eventually free and unlimited electricity across world
Humans collectively use 16 TW-years per year, receive 23,000+

12. EPIC TERMS for Solar PV Technology
Economic
Political
Intellectual
Cultural
Technological
Ecological
Religious-Ethical
Managerial
Social
-Profitability
-Market Demands
-Payback Period
-National Energy Policy
-Subsidies and Tax Incentives
-Environmental Protection Agency
-Foreign Relations (OPEC)
-Infrastructure Integration
-Large scale production
-Spread around
-Conversion Efficiencies
-Advancements in Solar R&D
-Ease of Implementation

13. Trends and Consequences of Solar PV
Driving:
•Efficiency, functionality, and consumer ease
•Synergies with nanomaterials, batteries, and grid
Opposing:
•Large upfront costs, rare earth metals, lifespan, installation, maintenance, property demands
Desirable, Direct, and Anticipated
Undesirable, Indirect, and Unanticipated
Changes in Equality

14. Conclusion
•Cheap, clean, convenient, and reliable
•Energy Source of Future. Prepare Now!
•Cross the Chasm in 2020
•"Type A” in Gartner's investment model
(high levels of benefit, for the intermediate 5-10 year future)
•High levels of confidence and reliability
(variety of data sources, no known factors causing bias)
•Not IFbut WHEN