ISES 2013 - Day 2 - Ole Grimsrud (Vice President Resource and Development, Scatec) - Resource Management

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How To Maximize The Triple Bottom Line: People, Planet and Profit.


Fossil fuels is a convenient and inexpensive source of energy, which will, if managed well, accelerate development. On the other hand, the use of fossil fuels results in increased emissions of greenhouse gases.
Is it time to rethink the management of fossil resources?

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ISES 2013 - Day 2 - Ole Grimsrud (Vice President Resource and Development, Scatec) - Resource Management

  1. 1. Solar Electricity: Status and prospects Ole Grimsrud June 14th, 2013
  2. 2. Sustainable • No fuel, no emissions • No moving parts, no noise • Low to no maintenance Modular • Standardized components • Short installation time • Easy to expand with demand PV produces electricity directly from sunlight
  3. 3. Contents PV Status: Rapid growth; dramatic price (& cost) reductions PV Prospects: Still huge cost reduction potential Conclusion: PV emerging as important electricity source
  4. 4. … industrial scale operations …PV leap-frogging other technologies, still with vast scope for improvements … demand increasingly based on commercial fundamentals … transformational scale and scope in generation, and as an investment area … to Small scale, using IT industry residuals … Continuous discussions on winning technology… Dependency on subsidies… Being seen as marginal by mainstream power PV module monthly spot market prices (USD/Wp) 6/13/136/13/136/13/136/13/136/13/13 6/13/13 6/13/13 6/13/13 6/13/13 6/13/13 6/13/13 6/13/13 6/13/13 6/13/13 From … Solar PV is transitioning from a niche technology to a mainstream source of power
  5. 5. Attractive regulations & cost reductions → strong PV growth; expected to continue Sources: Solarbuzz; EPIA; GTM; iSuppli; Scatec Solar; McKinsey demand model 2000 0.2 35-50% p.a.1 +48% p.a. 201514131211 25.4 10 17.5 +72% p.a. 7.5 08 5.6 07 2.9 06 1.8 05 1.5 04 1.1 03 0.6 02 0.4 01 0.4 09 Annualcapacity additions; GWp Rest of World Japan US Italy Spain Germany 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 35 – 60 GW1
  6. 6. Historic learning rate of ~20% for PV modules Doubling of cumulative PV production ~20 % module price reduction
  7. 7. PV becoming less dependent on subsidies
  8. 8. Contents PV Status: Rapid growth; dramatic price (& cost) reductions PV Prospects: Still huge cost reduction potential Conclusion: PV emerging as important electricity source
  9. 9. Source: McKinsey & Co, April 2012 McKinsey, April 2012: «The cost of a commercial-scale rooftop system could be reduced by 40% by 2015, and by another 30% by 2020 – to $1.20/Wp» Incremental improvements → further substantial cost reductions
  10. 10. Quantum leap potential in today’s PV technology Ingot/waferPolysilicon Cells Modules • Wafer ~1/2 of PV module cost • ~1/2 of material wasted as kerf loss • Wafers could be significantly thinner • Kerf-free wafering • Direct wafer crystallization • Epitaxial growth • Multi → Mono → Super-mono • More sophisticated cell design; multi-junction Si-based devices • Improved optical properties • η only ~15-20% • Systems cost increasingly area- dependent → greater impact of higher η ISSUESAPPROACHES
  11. 11. Contents PV Status: Rapid growth; dramatic price (& cost) reductions PV Prospects: Still huge cost reduction potential Conclusion: PV emerging as important electricity source
  12. 12. PV: ~ 40% of new power capacity in EU in 2012 Sources: EWEA (European Wind Energy Association); EPIA (EU Photovoltaic Industry Association) Notes: 1. Capacity ≠ kWh • Wind power: Average yearly load ~ 2,000 hours • Solar power: EU yearly load ~ 1,200 hours 2. In some countries, PV is already significant • In Germany, 4.6% of all electricity production in 2012 came from PV (3.2% in 2011) 2012 share of new power capacity installation in EU
  13. 13. Germany: Significant PV; grid parity reached ~now Sources: eex; Macquire
  14. 14. Bloomberg: 70% of global power generation capacity added 2012 – 2030 is expected to be renewable The news right now is dominated by stories of pain caused by overcapacity on the supply side of clean energy, and the lure of cheap shale gas. But this is playing out against the falling costs of renewable energy and of all the technologies required to integrate it into our energy system, and falling costs win.
  15. 15. PV is finally (or already?) a viable source of electricity! “The perception of renewables as an expensive source of electricity is largely obsolete, given the huge cost reductions achieved in recent years” “Rooftop solar PV is already better than average residential prices in Australia, Germany, Spain, Portugal, and the South-West US and is not far away in other countries” Citigroup, March 2013 “Key markets such as India, China and the US are experiencing strong demand and solar projects are now being developed with minimal or no incentives.” Deutsche Bank, February 2013 ““Solar has turned from a heavily-subsidised marginal technology into a mainstream source of power generation.” ”Purely based on economics, we believe almost every family home and every commercial rooftop in Germany, Italy and Spain should be equipped with a solar system by the end of this decade.” UBS, “The unsubsidized solar revolution”, Jan. 2013
  16. 16. Kalkbult, South Africa: 75MW under construction Key figures ~315 000 modules, approx 156 km of Substructures, 84 Inverters Project Owners 39% Scatec Solar AS (Norway); 21% Norfund (Norway); 40% S-A Duration Construction 12 months

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