Austin Ctea Expo

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I recently presented on The Growing Competitiveness of Solar Power

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Austin Ctea Expo

  1. 1. Solar Industry Market Projections and Lessons Learned Austin CTEA Expo Iga Hallberg - Vice President Business Development
  2. 2. Energy Generation and the Terawatt (TW) Challenge • Humanity uses 12 TW of power today – 1 TW = 1,000 GW (Gigawatts) • World will need 15 TW by 2012 • Only 5 known sources of energy are available on a TW scale* – Fossil fuels: Coal, oil, gas – Nuclear fuels – Solar • Only inherently distributed solution • No fuel cost *Prof. Nathan Lewis, http://nsl.caltech.edu/
  3. 3. Global solar resources 3
  4. 4. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 32% 45% 35% 29% 25% 42% 6% 9% 17% 22% 26% Installations(MW) Germany Spain Italy ROE Japan S. Korea China ROW US Policy Driven Demand US % growth Source: Barclays, IEA, Navigant Historical Trends • 49% growth • 45% growth ex-Spain 2008 0% 50% 100% 150% YOY Global Demand Growth German FIT Spanish RDC Recession US ITC
  5. 5. Growing Competitiveness of Solar Source: McKinsey. (1) kWh = kilowatt hour; kWp = kilowatt peak; TWh = terawatt hour; Wp = watt peak; the annual solar yield is the amount of electricity generated by a south-facing 1 kW peak-rated module in 1 year, or the equivalent number of hours that the module operates at peak rating. (2) Tier 4 and 5 are names of regulated forms of electricity generation and usage. (3) Unsubsidized cost to end users of solar energy equals cost of conventional electricity. Annual solar energy yield (kWh/kWp(1)) Grid Parity as of(3) Today Size of electricity market TWh a year(1) Averagepowerpriceperhousehold($/kWh(1)) 1,000 1,500 2,000500 $0.3 $0.2 $0.1 $0.0 Costperwattatpeakhours($/Wp(1)) China India Greece Texas Australia SpainNew YorkFranceFinland Japan Germany Sweden Netherlands Denmark California Tier 4(2) 2020 California Tier 5(2) Hawaii Italy California $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 Norway United Kingdom South Korea
  6. 6. Northern Suburb of Tokyo
  7. 7. Source: Christopher O’Brien of Sharp Solar at EESI climate change meeting 2005 Example of successful long term solar incentives
  8. 8. In deregulated regions, fuel price depends on the marginal fuel Marginal Fuel Type for Electricity Production RMP Source: Energy Velocity, NERC ES&D Hydro Coal Natural Gas Primary Fuel Type Petro Discussion  Prices of the fuel type that sets the marginal price of electricity most impact electricity price  Natural gas sets the price for electricity in the Northeast, California, and Texas  This coincides with the regions with the highest average electricity prices and regions with deregulated markets Deregulated Regions
  9. 9. Solar Systems Around the World Utility Scale Commercial Roof Top Systems Google HQ - CaliforniaSolar farm - Germany Austin City HallResidential roof - California Building Integrated Hong Kong Science Center 11
  10. 10. Atlantic City Convention Center, NJ 2.3MW Largest rooftop solar PV project in North America 12
  11. 11. Example: Correlation between Daily PV Power Production and Energy Consumption of an Office Building in Spain 24h-Energy Profile 0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 24:00 ElectricalEnergy[arb.units] Low Tariff Low TariffHigh Tariff Electricity supplied by Utility Fed-In Energy Solar Energy Energy consumption of building Electricity supplied by Utility Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH 13
  12. 12. Opportunities for a More Efficient Products and Value Chain 14 Customer Installer Power Purchase Agreement Financing If buy power LLC Financing If own system Integrator/ System Designer Future Integrated Products Opportunity for Integration & System Cost Reduction Opportunity for Pre-engineered Solutions PV Module Mfgr Mounting & Wiring System Mfgr Inverter Mfgr
  13. 13. Solar Product Availability • Crystalline Silicon ~ 18% conversion efficiency • Multi-crystalline Silicon ~ 14% • Amorphous Silicon ~ 6-8% – Flexible and rigid • Cadmium Telluride ~ 9-10% – First Solar capturing significant market share for central power applications • CIS/CIGS ~10-12% – New commercial availability entering the market in 2010 85% of current market 15% of current market but fastest growing segment 15
  14. 14. Chronology of Polysilicon Dynamics – 2006-2009 Source: Barclays
  15. 15. Competitive Manufacturing Cost Potential is Key! Source: Greentech Media and Prometheus Institute. $1.26 $0.98 $0.89 $0.80 $61 $174 $100 $54 $76 $105 $52 $65 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 2008E 2010E 2012E 2015E Asia Multi-Si Euro Multi-Si Integ. Multi-Si Super Mono Si a-Si CdTe CIGS Asia Poly ($/kg) Euro Poly ($/kg)
  16. 16. HelioVolt Confidential and Proprietary 18 Thin Film Process vs. Alternatives HelioVolt Process Glass In Module Out Glass Preparation FASST® CIGS Process Module Formation Final Assembly & Test Competitors’ CIGS Cell-Based Processes Substrate In Module Out Substrate Preparation CIGS Process Contact & Grid Formation Cell Cut & Sort Cell Stringing Silicon Process Polysilicon Ingot Wafer Solar Cell Solar Module Final Assembly & Test Source: Wall Street research.
  17. 17. Final Assembly & Test Module Formation FASST® CIGS Process Glass Preparation HelioVolt Module Production Process Glass In Module Out
  18. 18. Polysilicon Wafer Solar Cell Solar Panel SystemIngotPolysilicon Value Chain Cost Distribution Raw material, processing Cell, assembly, framing Labor, Wiring Mounting Inverters 30% 20% 50% Typical US Solar System Cost Allocation by Category
  19. 19. Chinese Tier 1 Module ASPs, 2007 – 2010 ($/W) Source: Barclays
  20. 20. 23 Module Manufacturers’ Shipment Trends 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1Q09A 2Q09A 3Q09A 4Q09A 1Q10E 2Q10E 3Q10E 4Q10E Chinese Total US Total Modules Barclays Capital Research
  21. 21. • Only Sharp was in the top 5 just 3 years ago
  22. 22. THE NEXT 5 YEARS…
  23. 23. Trend to watch - Outsourcing • iSuppli predicts over 1GW of modules will be produced by contract manufacturers • Flextronics recently announced a number of major deals: – Q Cells – 200MW contract for production in Malaysia – SunPower – 75MW contract for production in Milpitas – Enphase – additional manufacturing contract added to existing relationship to build micro-inverters in Canada • For mature technology: – Can reduce cost and CapEx – Meets local manufacturing content guidelines • required for Ontario feed-in-tariff
  24. 24. Current Module ASP Forecast to 2012 Source: Greentech/ Prometheus
  25. 25. When one constraint goes away, equilibrium can radically shift 28 Source: Greentech Media
  26. 26. Today, large markets at grid parity • NREL study looked at 1000 cities nationwide • Meaningful population centers at or near grid parity
  27. 27. 2015 with 0.5% annual rate hike • Includes: – ITC only – Falling system prices • Almost half of market below grid parity • 98% within 5 cents/ kWh
  28. 28. 2015 with 1% annual rate hike Includes: ITC only Falling system prices Two-thirds of market below grid parity 99% within 5 cents/ kWh
  29. 29. THANK YOU! IGA HALLBERG 512-767-6030 IHALLBERG@HELIOVOLT.COM
  30. 30. World’s Highest Performance, Lowest Cost, & Most Versatile Solar Power Platform

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