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India Morning Note
    a       g
Tues
   sday, July 31 2012
               1,

Dom
  mestic Mark
            kets Snapsh
                      hot                                   Views on markets t
                                                                             today
 Nam of Index
   me                   Jul 27        Jul 30   Change (%)
                                                        )   โ€ข India markets edged higher for the second straight
                                                                  an                                e
 Sensex             16,839.19     17,143.68       1.81%       day yesterday wwith firm glo
                                                                                         obal market after Euro
                                                                                                     ts          opean
                                                              leaders signalle over th weekend that they are
                                                                              ed        he           d
 CNX Nifty
   X                  5,099.85     5,199.80       1.96%
                                                                 pared to tak stronger action to cu ongoing euro-
                                                              prep           ke                     urb
 BSE Mid-cap          5,887.50     5,977.84       1.53%
                                                              zone debt crisis Data show
                                                                  e          s.         wing resump  ption of buy
                                                                                                                ying of
 BSE IT               5,224.27     5,303.44       1.52%       India stocks b foreign institutional investors (FIIs)
                                                                  an         by
 BSE Banks          11,633.16     11,943.42       2.67%       also underpinne sentime
                                                                              ed        ent. The pro ospect for gglobal
FII A
    Activity                                      (`Cr)       easing measur  res are raising hope the RBI could
                                                                 prise market with an i
                                                              surp            ts         interest rate cut, despite an
                                                                                                     e
 Date
    e                     Buy           Sell        Net
                                                              overrwhelming number of analysts who expec the
                                                                                        f                       ct
 27-Jul                 2,685         2,043         642       repo rate to remain unc
                                                                 o                       changed. The BSE Sensex
                                                                                                    T
 26-Jul                 2,823         3,753         -930      jumpped 304.49 points or 1.81%, up clo to 225 p
                                                                                                     ose         points
 Tota Jul
    al                 45,153        36,408        9425       from the day's low and of about 20 points from the
                                                                 m                       ff         0            m
 2012 YTD             368,678      318,923        50435       day's high.
MF A
   Activity                                        (`Cr)    โ€ข Inter
                                                                  rest rate seensitive rea
                                                                                         alty stocks rose acros the
                                                                                                               ss
                                                              boar ahead o the RBI first quarte review o the
                                                                  rd        of                      er         of
 Date
    e                     Buy           Sell        Net
                                                              Monetary Policy 2012-13. Metal stock gained a
                                                                             y                      ks         across
 27-Jul                   482           399          83       the board as LMEX, a gau   uge of six metals traded on
                                                                                                    m
 26-Jul                   799           398         401       the London Met Exchange rose 1.22 on Friday
                                                                  L          tal         e,         2%         y.
 Tota Jul
    al                  8,241         9,883        -2012
                                                            โ€ข SpiceJet Ltd j jumped 22  2.4% after it posted an
                                                                                                    r
 2012 YTD              71,384        78,871        -7857      unexxpected quuarterly proofit that raised hopes of a
Volu
   ume & Adva
            ances / Dec
                      clines                                  turnaround in the country's embattled av        viation
                                                              industry. GAIL rose 3% after April    l-June net profit
                                      NSE           BSE
                                                              surgged 15.1% from a year ago, while IRB
                                                                            %
 Trad
    ding Volume (Cr)                53.34          20.21
                                                              Infra
                                                                  astructure Developers surged 10.53% be
                                                                                        s                      eating
 Turn
    nover (`Cr)                     9,229          1,748      estim
                                                                  mates with a 6% gain in net profit. Suzlon EEnergy
 Advances                             981          1,616      Ltd surged 11  1.4% after saying on Friday it had
                                                                                                    n          t
 Declines                             504          1,143      redeeemed its $
                                                                            $360mn of f  foreign curr
                                                                                                    rency conve
                                                                                                              ertible
 Unchanged                             60           119       bond through v
                                                                  ds         various instruments.
 Tota
    al                              1,545          2,878    โ€ข Markket breadth was posit
                                                                             h           tive at ~1.4
                                                                                                    41x as inveestors
                                                              bougght large c cap stocks. On provissional basis FIIs
                                                                                                               s,
Glob Markets
   bal
                                                              bougght equity of `9.29bn while dom mestic institu
                                                                                                               utions
 Inde
    ex                     Late Values
                              est              Change (%)
                                                        )     sold equity of `2
                                                                              2.34bn in ca segmen
                                                                                         ash       nt.
 DJIA
    A                            13,073.01       -0.02%
                                                            โ€ข Asian markets are strong
                                                                                     ger ahead of the US Fed's
 NAS
   SDAQ                           2,945.84       -0.41%       meeeting, as investors are hopinng for liqquidity
 Nikk *
    kei                           8,679.47        0.51%       relax
                                                                  xation.
 Hang Seng *                     19,760.47        0.89%     โ€ข We expect a positive opening for the Indian ma
                                                                                                  e         arkets
* as o 8.25AM IST
     of                                                          ay, following the cues from the Asian ma
                                                              toda                     s         e         arkets.
Curr
   rencies / Co
              ommodities Snapshot
                       s                                      Howwever, today moneta
                                                                             y's       ary policy by the RBI may
                                                                                                  b
                                    Latest      Previous
                                                              keep the sentim
                                                                  p         ments cautio
                                                                                       ous.
                                    Quote          Close    Econom and Cor
                                                                 mic     rporate Dev
                                                                                   velopments
                                                                                            s
 Indian Rupee per $                  55.43         55.13
                                                            โ€ข RBI is announcing monetar policy rev
                                                                  i                   ry         view today.
 Indian Rupee per โ‚ฌ                  67.95         67.68
                                                            โ€ข In its Macro Eco
                                                                   s           onomic Review RBI said FY13 grow to
                                                                                                    d         wth
 NYM
   MEX Crude Oil($/bbl)              90.00         89.78
                                                              rema weak at 6.5% due to global & domestic m
                                                                   ain         t                              macro
 Gold ($/oz)
    d                             1,622.80      1,619.70      funddamentals. Global grow wth to remain weaker than
                                                                                                              r
 Silve ($/oz)
     er                              28.19         28.03      expe ected. It als said that lack of quick govern
                                                                               so                             nment
                                                              polic response exacerbate slowdown.
                                                                   cy         e          ed

Keyn
   note Capitals Research
                        h                      (reseaarch@keyno otecapitals.net)             (+91222-3026600  00)
                                      Keyynote Capita Research is also available on
                                                     als        h
Bloo
   omberg KNTE <GO>, Tho
               E             omson One A Analytics, Re
                                                     euters Knowwledge, Capit IQ, TheMa
                                                                             tal        arkets.com and securitie
                                                                                                   a           es.com
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                            utional Resea
                                        arch - winner of โ€œIndiaโ€™s Best IPO Analyst Award 2009โ€ by MCX-Zee Business
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TOP GAINERS                                          Buzzin Stocks
                                                          ng
(BSE A-Group)
   E                                                 โ€ข Bharti Airtel in plans to issue new shares to the
                                                                      n
                    Previous   Currennt   Change       public or QFI.
 Com
   mpany Name
            e
                    Close(`
                          `)   Price(`
                                     `)      (%)     โ€ข Coal India boar to meet o Tuesday to discuss F
                                                                     rd        on                   FSAs
 Suzl
    lon Energy        17.15
                          5      19.10     11.37
                                                       with Power Com
                                                          h          mpanies.
 IRB Infra           113.45
                          5     125.60     10.71
                                                     โ€ข R Po
                                                          ower gets $
                                                                    $150mn loa from Sta C for itโ€™s UP
                                                                             an       an         s
 Orie
    ental Bank       213.10
                          0     233.25      9.46
                                                       base power pr
                                                          ed        roject.
 GMR Infra
   R                  22.35
                          5      24.05      7.61
 Unit
    ted Spirits      720.65
                          5     771.05      6.99     โ€ข CCI Imposes Penalty of `397.5Cr on Shree Cem ment
                                                       for indulging in restrictive trade practices
(BSE Mid-Cap)
   E
                                                     โ€ข Supreme Court asked Mah
                                                                    t        hanadi coalfields to su
                                                                                                   upply
                    Previous   Currennt   Change       2.8 lakh tonne coal to Jindal Stainlessโ€™ plan in
                                                                                                   nt
 Com
   mpany Name
            e
                    Close(`
                          `)   Price(`
                                     `)      (%)
                                                          ssa.
                                                       Oris
 INDI
    IAB POWER         11.78      13.21     12.14
 Suzl
    lon Energy        17.15      19.10     11.37     โ€ข Deccan Chronic pledges 14.5% sta
                                                                      cle       s        ake of comp
                                                                                                   pany
 IRB Infra           113.45     125.60     10.71       to Religare Finv
                                                          R           vest. The company ha pledged 54%
                                                                                         ad
                                                       to Future Capital
 Orie
    ental Bank       213.10     233.25       9.46
 Jet A India
     Air             322.60     347.50       7.72    โ€ข Arvind considering acquisition of ope   erating store &
                                                                                                           es
                                                       rights of British fashion ret
                                                                       h           tailer Next and Debenh
                                                                                               a          hams
TOP LOSERS                                             from Planet Ret
                                                          m             tail

(BSE A-Group)
   E                                                 US markets
                    Previous   Currennt   Change     U.S. sttocks finished a low-v
                                                                                 volume sess
                                                                                           sion with m
                                                                                                     minor
 Com
   mpany Name
            e
                    Close(`
                          `)   Price(`
                                     `)      (%)     decline Monday as investor moved ca
                                                            es                   rs        autiously ah
                                                                                                      head
 Bharat Elect       1230.60
                          0    1146.15
                                     5      -6.86    of cent tral-bank m
                                                                       meetings and the mont
                                                                                           thly jobs re
                                                                                                      eport
 Opto Circuits
    o                155.35
                          5     152.75
                                     5      -1.67    later in the week.
                                                            n
 Sun TV Network      261.65
                          5     258.90
                                     0      -1.05
 CRIS
    SIL              929.15
                          5     920.00
                                     0      -0.98
 JPINFRATEC           52.25
                          5      51.80
                                     0      -0.86

(BSE Mid-Cap)
   E
                    Previous   Currennt   Change
 Com
   mpany Name
            e
                    Close(`
                          `)   Price(`
                                     `)      (%)
 Mon
   nnet Ispat Ene
                e    319.95     301.45      -5.78
 Elan
    ntas Beck       1515.55    1433.10      -5.44
 Resp
    ponsive Inds     102.35      97.00      -5.23
 Glod
    dyne Tech        218.90     208.00      -4.98
 Pura
    avankara Proj
                j     67.15      63.85      -4.91




Keyn
   note Capitals Research
                        h                   (resea
                                                 arch@keyno
                                                          otecapitals.net)             (+912
                                                                                           22-3026600
                                                                                                    00)
ย 



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                                                                                                                                    ย 




 India and Globa Economic Calendar
     a         al       c
   Countries /              Tue
                              esday                   Wed
                                                        dnesday                   Th
                                                                                   hursday                     Friday

   Reg
     gions                    31
                               1-Jul                     1-Aug                      2-Aug
                                                                                    2                          3-Aug

   Ind
     dia             RBI policy                 Trade def
                                                        ficit                                          Forex Reserves Data
                                                                                                             R

                     Infrastruct
                               ture output                                                             Bank Lo
                                                                                                             oan Growth




   US                Personal                   FED monetary policy
                                                                  y        Initial Job
                                                                                     bless Claims      Average Hourly
                                                                                                              e
                     consumpt tion price        & interes rate
                                                        st                                             Earning (YoY) &
                                                                                                             gs
                     index                                                                             Average Weekly
                                                                                                              e
                                                                                                       Hours
                     consumerr                  ISM mfg P
                                                        PMI                Factory Orders              Nonfarm Payrolls &
                                                                                                             m
                     confidence                                            (MoM)                       Unemployment Rat  te
                                                Construct
                                                        tion                                           ISM Non
                                                                                                             n-
                                                spending                                               Manufacturing PMI
   Glo
     obal            Japan labo cash
                              or                Germany market
                                                       y                   UK's Halifax House          UK Market Services
                                                                                                                        s
                     earning &                  mfg data                           MoM)
                                                                           Prices (M                   PMI
                     construction order
                     Germany                                               UK's BoE Interest
                                                                                  E                    German Market
                                                                                                             ny
                     Unemploy yment rate                                   Rate Dec
                                                                                  cision               Services PMI




                                           KEYN
                                              NOTE CAPITTALS LTD.
                       The Rub 9th Floo Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumba โ€“ 400 028
                             by,      or,                                   ai        8
                                    Tel. : +9
                                            9122-30266
                                                     6000        โ€ข   www
                                                                       w.keynotec
                                                                                capitals.com
                                                                                           m

Disclaiimer: This re
                   eport is purely for informa ation purpose and is bassed on public information News cont
                                                                                    c             n.          tent is attribu
                                                                                                                            utable to
various media, unle specified otherwise. A market related statistic data perta
                    ess                       All                      cal          ains to the im
                                                                                                 mmediately preceding trad  ding day,
unless stated other
      s             rwise. Neithe the informa
                                 er           ation nor any opinion expressed in this report constitutes an off
                                                          y                         s                         fer, or an invitation to
make an offer, to bbuy or sell the securities m
                                              mentioned he erein. We or any of our directors, offic
                                                                                                  cers or emplo
                                                                                                              oyees shall not in any
way be responsible for any loss arising from the use of this report. Investors are advised to apply their own judgmen before
       e            e             s           m                                     e                         o             nt
acting on the conteents of this re
                                 eport. The rep
                                              port has not been edited due to time c
                                                                       d            constraints.

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Keynote capitals india morning note july 31-'12

  • 1. ย  ย  ย  India Morning Note a g Tues sday, July 31 2012 1, Dom mestic Mark kets Snapsh hot Views on markets t today Nam of Index me Jul 27 Jul 30 Change (%) ) โ€ข India markets edged higher for the second straight an e Sensex 16,839.19 17,143.68 1.81% day yesterday wwith firm glo obal market after Euro ts opean leaders signalle over th weekend that they are ed he d CNX Nifty X 5,099.85 5,199.80 1.96% pared to tak stronger action to cu ongoing euro- prep ke urb BSE Mid-cap 5,887.50 5,977.84 1.53% zone debt crisis Data show e s. wing resump ption of buy ying of BSE IT 5,224.27 5,303.44 1.52% India stocks b foreign institutional investors (FIIs) an by BSE Banks 11,633.16 11,943.42 2.67% also underpinne sentime ed ent. The pro ospect for gglobal FII A Activity (`Cr) easing measur res are raising hope the RBI could prise market with an i surp ts interest rate cut, despite an e Date e Buy Sell Net overrwhelming number of analysts who expec the f ct 27-Jul 2,685 2,043 642 repo rate to remain unc o changed. The BSE Sensex T 26-Jul 2,823 3,753 -930 jumpped 304.49 points or 1.81%, up clo to 225 p ose points Tota Jul al 45,153 36,408 9425 from the day's low and of about 20 points from the m ff 0 m 2012 YTD 368,678 318,923 50435 day's high. MF A Activity (`Cr) โ€ข Inter rest rate seensitive rea alty stocks rose acros the ss boar ahead o the RBI first quarte review o the rd of er of Date e Buy Sell Net Monetary Policy 2012-13. Metal stock gained a y ks across 27-Jul 482 399 83 the board as LMEX, a gau uge of six metals traded on m 26-Jul 799 398 401 the London Met Exchange rose 1.22 on Friday L tal e, 2% y. Tota Jul al 8,241 9,883 -2012 โ€ข SpiceJet Ltd j jumped 22 2.4% after it posted an r 2012 YTD 71,384 78,871 -7857 unexxpected quuarterly proofit that raised hopes of a Volu ume & Adva ances / Dec clines turnaround in the country's embattled av viation industry. GAIL rose 3% after April l-June net profit NSE BSE surgged 15.1% from a year ago, while IRB % Trad ding Volume (Cr) 53.34 20.21 Infra astructure Developers surged 10.53% be s eating Turn nover (`Cr) 9,229 1,748 estim mates with a 6% gain in net profit. Suzlon EEnergy Advances 981 1,616 Ltd surged 11 1.4% after saying on Friday it had n t Declines 504 1,143 redeeemed its $ $360mn of f foreign curr rency conve ertible Unchanged 60 119 bond through v ds various instruments. Tota al 1,545 2,878 โ€ข Markket breadth was posit h tive at ~1.4 41x as inveestors bougght large c cap stocks. On provissional basis FIIs s, Glob Markets bal bougght equity of `9.29bn while dom mestic institu utions Inde ex Late Values est Change (%) ) sold equity of `2 2.34bn in ca segmen ash nt. DJIA A 13,073.01 -0.02% โ€ข Asian markets are strong ger ahead of the US Fed's NAS SDAQ 2,945.84 -0.41% meeeting, as investors are hopinng for liqquidity Nikk * kei 8,679.47 0.51% relax xation. Hang Seng * 19,760.47 0.89% โ€ข We expect a positive opening for the Indian ma e arkets * as o 8.25AM IST of ay, following the cues from the Asian ma toda s e arkets. Curr rencies / Co ommodities Snapshot s Howwever, today moneta y's ary policy by the RBI may b Latest Previous keep the sentim p ments cautio ous. Quote Close Econom and Cor mic rporate Dev velopments s Indian Rupee per $ 55.43 55.13 โ€ข RBI is announcing monetar policy rev i ry view today. Indian Rupee per โ‚ฌ 67.95 67.68 โ€ข In its Macro Eco s onomic Review RBI said FY13 grow to d wth NYM MEX Crude Oil($/bbl) 90.00 89.78 rema weak at 6.5% due to global & domestic m ain t macro Gold ($/oz) d 1,622.80 1,619.70 funddamentals. Global grow wth to remain weaker than r Silve ($/oz) er 28.19 28.03 expe ected. It als said that lack of quick govern so nment polic response exacerbate slowdown. cy e ed Keyn note Capitals Research h (reseaarch@keyno otecapitals.net) (+91222-3026600 00) Keyynote Capita Research is also available on als h Bloo omberg KNTE <GO>, Tho E omson One A Analytics, Re euters Knowwledge, Capit IQ, TheMa tal arkets.com and securitie a es.com Keynote Capitals Institu utional Resea arch - winner of โ€œIndiaโ€™s Best IPO Analyst Award 2009โ€ by MCX-Zee Business To unsubsc cribe from th mailing lis please reply to unsub his st, bscribe@keyynotecapitals s.net
  • 2. ย  ย  ย  TOP GAINERS Buzzin Stocks ng (BSE A-Group) E โ€ข Bharti Airtel in plans to issue new shares to the n Previous Currennt Change public or QFI. Com mpany Name e Close(` `) Price(` `) (%) โ€ข Coal India boar to meet o Tuesday to discuss F rd on FSAs Suzl lon Energy 17.15 5 19.10 11.37 with Power Com h mpanies. IRB Infra 113.45 5 125.60 10.71 โ€ข R Po ower gets $ $150mn loa from Sta C for itโ€™s UP an an s Orie ental Bank 213.10 0 233.25 9.46 base power pr ed roject. GMR Infra R 22.35 5 24.05 7.61 Unit ted Spirits 720.65 5 771.05 6.99 โ€ข CCI Imposes Penalty of `397.5Cr on Shree Cem ment for indulging in restrictive trade practices (BSE Mid-Cap) E โ€ข Supreme Court asked Mah t hanadi coalfields to su upply Previous Currennt Change 2.8 lakh tonne coal to Jindal Stainlessโ€™ plan in nt Com mpany Name e Close(` `) Price(` `) (%) ssa. Oris INDI IAB POWER 11.78 13.21 12.14 Suzl lon Energy 17.15 19.10 11.37 โ€ข Deccan Chronic pledges 14.5% sta cle s ake of comp pany IRB Infra 113.45 125.60 10.71 to Religare Finv R vest. The company ha pledged 54% ad to Future Capital Orie ental Bank 213.10 233.25 9.46 Jet A India Air 322.60 347.50 7.72 โ€ข Arvind considering acquisition of ope erating store & es rights of British fashion ret h tailer Next and Debenh a hams TOP LOSERS from Planet Ret m tail (BSE A-Group) E US markets Previous Currennt Change U.S. sttocks finished a low-v volume sess sion with m minor Com mpany Name e Close(` `) Price(` `) (%) decline Monday as investor moved ca es rs autiously ah head Bharat Elect 1230.60 0 1146.15 5 -6.86 of cent tral-bank m meetings and the mont thly jobs re eport Opto Circuits o 155.35 5 152.75 5 -1.67 later in the week. n Sun TV Network 261.65 5 258.90 0 -1.05 CRIS SIL 929.15 5 920.00 0 -0.98 JPINFRATEC 52.25 5 51.80 0 -0.86 (BSE Mid-Cap) E Previous Currennt Change Com mpany Name e Close(` `) Price(` `) (%) Mon nnet Ispat Ene e 319.95 301.45 -5.78 Elan ntas Beck 1515.55 1433.10 -5.44 Resp ponsive Inds 102.35 97.00 -5.23 Glod dyne Tech 218.90 208.00 -4.98 Pura avankara Proj j 67.15 63.85 -4.91 Keyn note Capitals Research h (resea arch@keyno otecapitals.net) (+912 22-3026600 00)
  • 3. ย  ย  ย  India and Globa Economic Calendar a al c Countries / Tue esday Wed dnesday Th hursday Friday Reg gions 31 1-Jul 1-Aug 2-Aug 2 3-Aug Ind dia RBI policy Trade def ficit Forex Reserves Data R Infrastruct ture output Bank Lo oan Growth US Personal FED monetary policy y Initial Job bless Claims Average Hourly e consumpt tion price & interes rate st Earning (YoY) & gs index Average Weekly e Hours consumerr ISM mfg P PMI Factory Orders Nonfarm Payrolls & m confidence (MoM) Unemployment Rat te Construct tion ISM Non n- spending Manufacturing PMI Glo obal Japan labo cash or Germany market y UK's Halifax House UK Market Services s earning & mfg data MoM) Prices (M PMI construction order Germany UK's BoE Interest E German Market ny Unemploy yment rate Rate Dec cision Services PMI KEYN NOTE CAPITTALS LTD. The Rub 9th Floo Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumba โ€“ 400 028 by, or, ai 8 Tel. : +9 9122-30266 6000 โ€ข www w.keynotec capitals.com m Disclaiimer: This re eport is purely for informa ation purpose and is bassed on public information News cont c n. tent is attribu utable to various media, unle specified otherwise. A market related statistic data perta ess All cal ains to the im mmediately preceding trad ding day, unless stated other s rwise. Neithe the informa er ation nor any opinion expressed in this report constitutes an off y s fer, or an invitation to make an offer, to bbuy or sell the securities m mentioned he erein. We or any of our directors, offic cers or emplo oyees shall not in any way be responsible for any loss arising from the use of this report. Investors are advised to apply their own judgmen before e e s m e o nt acting on the conteents of this re eport. The rep port has not been edited due to time c d constraints.