The domestic markets opened flat but saw selling pressure and losses, especially in mid-cap stocks due to margin funding issues. The markets recovered slightly in the afternoon on short-covering and selective buying but failed to sustain higher levels. Technically, market breadth was weak with higher volumes signaling more downside risk. Most technical indicators were below their averages, signaling impending selling pressure. However, some indicators were in oversold territory, which could lead to short-term bouts of buying at lower levels. The markets will take cues from the upcoming union budget, global markets, the rupee and crude oil prices.

1. Daily Technical Outlook
26th February 2013
Indices * Close % Chg. Markets negative but over sold
BSE SENSEX 19331.69 0.08
S&P CNX NIFTY 5854.75 0.08
Mirroring the inconclusive global market cues the domestic
markets witnessed a flat opening. Selling pressure continued
NIFTY FEB 13 FUT. 5857.80 0.07
as markets traded with losses. Carnage was especially
India VIX 16.73 -0.35
witnessed in the mid-cap stocks which were in lot of pressure
S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels due to margin funding. The markets managed to recover in
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 the afternoon session on back of short covering and selective
Support 5816 5747 5571
buying support. However, the markets failed to sustain higher
and moved lower today. The markets ended the day on a flat
Resistance 5885 5966 6158
note to close near the lows for the day. The top losers for the
Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY day were Ranbaxy, Powergrid, Infosys Tech; Tata Motors,
50 Day SMA 5960.91 ◄Negative BHEL, Hero Motocorp, HCL Tech; Lupin, TCS and SBI.
100 Day SMA 5843.06
Technically, the market breadth remained weak amidst
200 Day SMA 5533.95 higher volumes, which is a negative sign for the markets.
Market Breadth * BSE NSE
The prevailing negative technical conditions continued
to weigh on the market sentiment. The Stochastic, KST,
Advances 897 280
RSI and MACD all are still placed below their respective
Declines 1279 760
averages. The Nifty remains placed below its 50-day
Same 768 34 SMA, which does not augur well for the markets. The
Total 2944 1074 negative divergence pattern formed on the Nifty still
A/D Ratio 0.70 : 1 0.37 : 1 holds good and remains a sign of worry for the markets.
Moreover, the KST and MACD are placed in the negative
Volume (Lacs Shares) * territory, which warns of impending selling pressure.
25/02/13 22/02/13 % Chg. These negative technical conditions would lead to
BSE 2152 1947 10.53 further selling pressure. However, the prevailing positive
NSE 6444 5646 14.12 technical conditions still hold good. The Stochastic has
Total 8596 7593 13.20 moved in the over sold zone. The Nifty remains placed
above its 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-
Turnover ( ` Crores) * day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and
25/02/13 22/02/13 % Chg. 200-day SMA, the later being called the ‘Golden Cross
BSE 1931.33 1724.65 11.98 breakout’. These positive conditions would lead to
NSE 9647.43 9919.00 -2.74 intermediate bouts of short covering and selective
NSE F&O 153103.52 120497.09 27.06 buying support at lower levels. The –DI line is placed
Total 164682.28 132140.74 24.63
above the +DI line and is also placed above the 31 level
but has come off its recent highs, indicating sellers are
F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * covering shorts regularly. The market sentiment remains
25/02/13 22/02/13 % Chg. cautious ahead of the Union Budget. We hold our view
Index Fut. 396581 244145 62.44
that upsides should be used to add to short positions
until Nifty moves and closes above the 50-day SMA.
Stock Fut. 721216 532180 35.52
However, stock specific action will be witnessed. In the
Index Opt. 3719333 2933731 26.78
meanwhile the markets would take cues from the news
Stock Opt. 289590 306231 -5.43 flow on Union Budget, global markets, Rupee and the
Total 5126720 4016287 19.15 crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at 5816,
NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE 5747 and 5571. The Nifty faces resistance at 5885, 5966,
6158 and 6313 levels.
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
www.keynotecapitals.com

2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
Stop
Initiation Stop Loss
Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target Target (%) Remarks
TGT of 80
Achieved
given Sell
@ 84.25
on
Arvind Fut 80.05 Sell Below 79.50 81.55 2.58 75 5.66 22/03/13
AB Nuvo 1084.25 Buy Above 1087.00 1072.00 1.38 1120 3.04
Ambuja Cement 200.35 Buy Above 200.75 197.90 1.42 207 3.11
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.
Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support
Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
BSE SENSEX 19332 19327 19416 19500 19673 19243 19154 18981
S&P CNX NIFTY 5855 5853 5880 5906 5960 5827 5799 5746
NIFTY FEB 13 FUT. 5858 5834 5846 5834 5834 5846 5834 5834
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
www.keynotecapitals.com

3. Stocks To Watch Out Today
AB Nuvo, Ambuja Cements, Bajaja Auto, Hero Motocorp, India Cement, Infosys Tech; LIC Hsg; Lupin, Mphasis, Powergrid,
Ranbaxy, Sun Pharma, TCS, Wipro
Aban, Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, Aurobindo Pharma, Balrampur Chini, Century Textiles, Coal India, Colgate, Crompton
Greaves, Cummins, Delta Corp, Dena Bank, Dish TV, Escorts, GMDC, Godrej Inds, GSPL, HDFC Bank, HDIL, HOECL, HUL,
Indian Hotels, IOB, IOC, Jet Airways, Jindal Saw, JP Associates, JSW Enwrgy, L&T, McLeod Russel, NCC, NTPC, OBC,
Pantaloon Retail, Praj, Punj Lloyd, Tata Comm; Tata Global, Welcorp
NOTE:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average
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