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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                                     2nd February 2012
         Indices *              Close           % Chg.     Mirroring the muted global market cues, the domestic
 BSE SENSEX                    17300.58           0.62     markets witnessed a flat opening. The overall trend remained
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  5235.70           0.70     range bound but selling pressure was being witnessed at
 NIFTY FEB. FUT.                5262.15           0.74     regular intervals. Buying momentum picked up in the
 India VIX                       22.89            1.01     afternoon trade helping Nifty move above the 5250 level. The
                                                           markets managed to hold on to the gains. The markets ended
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                     the day with moderate gains to close near the highs for the
                     Level 1    Level 2         Level 3    day. The top gainers for the day were Tata Power, Jindal
Support               5161       5037            4987      Steel, Tata Steel, JP Associates, Hindalco, Hero Motocorp,
Resistance            5327       3561            5400      IDFC, Sterlite, SAIL and Rel. Infra.
        Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                      Technically, the market breadth remained robust amidst
50 Day SMA                      4851.34                    higher volumes, which is a positive sign for the markets.
                                               ◄Negative
100 Day SMA                     4952.12                    The global market set of cues are largely positive. The
200 Day SMA                     5194.83
                                                           domestic markets are likely to witness a firm opening.
                                                           The Nifty has just managed to sustain above its 200-day
             Volume (Lacs Shares)          *               SMA for the second straight day. However, it needs to
                   01/02/12    31/01/12         % Chg.     sustain above it for at least for four trading days for the
BSE                  3290        2628            25.19     market trend to change. The Nifty remains placed above
NSE                 10317        7569            36.31
                                                           its 50-day SMA and 100-day SMA. The MACD, RSI and
                                                           KST are placed above their respective averages, which
Total               13607       10197            33.44
                                                           would help in triggering buying support. The KST and
             Turnover ( ` Crores)          *               MACD are also placed in the positive territory. The ADX
                   01/02/12    31/01/12         % Chg.
                                                           line, -DI line are moving sideways. However, the +DI line
                                                           is still placed at 36.39 and is moving downwards
BSE                 4845.51     2806.50          72.65
                                                           indicating profit taking at higher levels. However, a few
NSE                16815.16    13696.26          22.77
                                                           technical negatives continue to prevail and are likely to
NSE F&O            96831.61    87078.94          11.20     weigh on the market sentiment. The Stochastic is placed
Total              118492.28   103581.70         14.39     below its average. Moreover, the Stochastic and RSI are
                                                           still placed near the over bought zone. The 50-day SMA is
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)              *
                                                           also placed below the 100-day SMA. All these conditions
                   01/02/12    31/01/12         % Chg.
                                                           would lead profit taking and selling pressure, especially
Index Fut.          465944      490804           -5.07     at higher levels. The markets sentiment remains cautious
Stock Fut.          602951      612928           -1.63     as markets are poised crucially. Markets will witness
Index Opt.         2441330     2069128           17.99     intermediate bouts of volatility and choppiness. Now, it is
Stock Opt.          171909      182978           -6.05     important that the markets witness buying support at
Total              3682134     3355838           10.76     regular intervals for the Nifty to sustain above the 200-
                                                           day SMA, which is its long term moving average.
             Market Breadth (NSE) *                        Intermediate bouts of profit taking and selling pressure
Advances                         1060                      are likely to be witnessed. In the meanwhile the markets
Declines                          430                      would take cues from the earnings season, the global
Same                              71                       markets and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty
Total                            1561
                                                           are placed at 5161, 5037, 4987, 4747 and 4563. The Nifty
                                                           faces resistance at the 5327, 5361 and 5400 levels.
A/D Ratio                       2.47 : 1
NOTE -   *- Source – BSE & NSE
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                    Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in

                                                                 Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              th
             4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                www.keynotecapitals.com
Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days)

                                                                                  Stop
                                                     Initiation        Stop       Loss                      Target
      Stock            Close          Action           Price          Loss *       (%)          Target       (%)            Remarks
Allahabad Bank           164.20      Buy Above            165.00       160.90        2.48          175          6.06
Bhushan Steel            360.00      Buy Above            362.00       353.90        2.24          380          4.97
Bombay Dying             426.60      Buy Above            430.00       414.25        3.66          465          8.14
Godrej Inds.             206.50      Buy Above            207.00       203.40        1.74          215          3.86
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on Closing basis.

                                                               Intra-day Resistance                        Intra-day Support
      Indices             Close         Pivot Point           R1       R2         R3                 S1           S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                   17301                17230       17398      17495          17761         17132        16964         16698
S&P CNX NIFTY                 5236                 5213        5267        5299          5384            5182        5128         5042
NIFTY FEB. FUT.               5262                 5237        5296        5330          5423            5203        5144         5051




                                                             Keynote Capitals Ltd.
           th
          4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                           www.keynotecapitals.com
Disclaimer
This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be
reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are
required to observe these restrictions.
This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based
upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any
jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote
Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment
objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.
We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable
though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected
with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their
own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this
material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including
those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial
risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s
price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not
match with a report on a company’s fundamentals.
Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to
update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or
other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking
statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment
businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.
We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short
positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other
transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the
financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company
(ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and
opinions.
The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal
views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation
was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior
written consent.




                                                       Keynote Capitals Ltd.
     th
    4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                     www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report for 020212

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 2nd February 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. Mirroring the muted global market cues, the domestic BSE SENSEX 17300.58 0.62 markets witnessed a flat opening. The overall trend remained S&P CNX NIFTY 5235.70 0.70 range bound but selling pressure was being witnessed at NIFTY FEB. FUT. 5262.15 0.74 regular intervals. Buying momentum picked up in the India VIX 22.89 1.01 afternoon trade helping Nifty move above the 5250 level. The markets managed to hold on to the gains. The markets ended S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels the day with moderate gains to close near the highs for the Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 day. The top gainers for the day were Tata Power, Jindal Support 5161 5037 4987 Steel, Tata Steel, JP Associates, Hindalco, Hero Motocorp, Resistance 5327 3561 5400 IDFC, Sterlite, SAIL and Rel. Infra. Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY Technically, the market breadth remained robust amidst 50 Day SMA 4851.34 higher volumes, which is a positive sign for the markets. ◄Negative 100 Day SMA 4952.12 The global market set of cues are largely positive. The 200 Day SMA 5194.83 domestic markets are likely to witness a firm opening. The Nifty has just managed to sustain above its 200-day Volume (Lacs Shares) * SMA for the second straight day. However, it needs to 01/02/12 31/01/12 % Chg. sustain above it for at least for four trading days for the BSE 3290 2628 25.19 market trend to change. The Nifty remains placed above NSE 10317 7569 36.31 its 50-day SMA and 100-day SMA. The MACD, RSI and KST are placed above their respective averages, which Total 13607 10197 33.44 would help in triggering buying support. The KST and Turnover ( ` Crores) * MACD are also placed in the positive territory. The ADX 01/02/12 31/01/12 % Chg. line, -DI line are moving sideways. However, the +DI line is still placed at 36.39 and is moving downwards BSE 4845.51 2806.50 72.65 indicating profit taking at higher levels. However, a few NSE 16815.16 13696.26 22.77 technical negatives continue to prevail and are likely to NSE F&O 96831.61 87078.94 11.20 weigh on the market sentiment. The Stochastic is placed Total 118492.28 103581.70 14.39 below its average. Moreover, the Stochastic and RSI are still placed near the over bought zone. The 50-day SMA is F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * also placed below the 100-day SMA. All these conditions 01/02/12 31/01/12 % Chg. would lead profit taking and selling pressure, especially Index Fut. 465944 490804 -5.07 at higher levels. The markets sentiment remains cautious Stock Fut. 602951 612928 -1.63 as markets are poised crucially. Markets will witness Index Opt. 2441330 2069128 17.99 intermediate bouts of volatility and choppiness. Now, it is Stock Opt. 171909 182978 -6.05 important that the markets witness buying support at Total 3682134 3355838 10.76 regular intervals for the Nifty to sustain above the 200- day SMA, which is its long term moving average. Market Breadth (NSE) * Intermediate bouts of profit taking and selling pressure Advances 1060 are likely to be witnessed. In the meanwhile the markets Declines 430 would take cues from the earnings season, the global Same 71 markets and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty Total 1561 are placed at 5161, 5037, 4987, 4747 and 4563. The Nifty faces resistance at the 5327, 5361 and 5400 levels. A/D Ratio 2.47 : 1 NOTE - *- Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks Allahabad Bank 164.20 Buy Above 165.00 160.90 2.48 175 6.06 Bhushan Steel 360.00 Buy Above 362.00 353.90 2.24 380 4.97 Bombay Dying 426.60 Buy Above 430.00 414.25 3.66 465 8.14 Godrej Inds. 206.50 Buy Above 207.00 203.40 1.74 215 3.86 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on Closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 17301 17230 17398 17495 17761 17132 16964 16698 S&P CNX NIFTY 5236 5213 5267 5299 5384 5182 5128 5042 NIFTY FEB. FUT. 5262 5237 5296 5330 5423 5203 5144 5051 Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com