Long-term scenario building for
food and agriculture: A global
overall model for FAO
Kostas Stamoulis
ad-interim ADG, ES Department
19/02/2016

GPS work and outputs
Corporate reports on key issues
• E.g. report on “Achieving Zero Hunger - The critical
role of investments in social protection and
agriculture” (2015)
World Agriculture towards 20XX
• long-term projections of agriculture, food security
and natural resource use. Last baseline projection
until 2050 (Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012)
Frequent requests for selected findings from GPS
reports by colleagues at HQ and decentralized offices,
national and international organizations, and member
states
Global perspective studies (GPS) has a long tradition at
FAO. Selected outputs comprise:

Importance of FAO GPS findings
GPS findings are important strategic corporate outputs as they:
• Provide a reference framework to member countries for their long
term development strategies for FNS and agriculture
• Nurture the global policy debate about long term sustainability of
food and agriculture;
• Frame within a long term perspective and inform the next FAO’s
strategic objectives;
• Highlight possible futures of food and agriculture, vis-à-vis climate
change scenarios.
• Explore possible futures of access to food, in relation to structural
changes of the agricultural sector, the role of smallholders, changing
income distribution, capital ownership, human capital etc.

Work ahead for GPS
Given the strategic importance of GPS findings, FAO needs to update
and upgrade its comprehensive long term forward looking exercise.
Indeed, FAO is preparing the next long term forward looking report:
“Food and Agriculture towards 2050-80” (FAT2080)
To this end, FAO needs to:
• Overhaul existing analytical tools for long term projections, to
further improve their performance
• Endow the GPS team with additional analytical tools to cover
relevant domains not covered so far and better addressing current
and emerging issues.
This workshop is an important step in the process of preparing the
next FAO forward looking exercise

Reinforcing the analytical framework
Alternative futures of FSN and sustainable agriculture depend on a
set of interrelated variables determined by economy-wide
dynamics, structural changes of economic systems affecting
income generation and distribution, use and remuneration of
production factors, capital accumulation, asset ownership,
knowledge generation and human capital, population dynamics,
etc.
To frame FSN and agriculture in the proper social, economic and
environmental context a model capturing key economy-wide
interrelationships is needed, as a complement to sector-specific
models.
This workshop aims at setting up the operational framework to
endow FAO GPS with a long-term global economy-wide model

GPS Cooperation and partnership
The Global Perspectives Studies Team is responsible for and has the leadership
of FAO’s GPS work, but, the GPS fully relies on:
• In-house knowledge and expert judgement. So, GPS is a coordinated effort
involving the entire FAO;
• Knowledge and experience of UN Rome-Based Agencies. RBAs according to
their specificities, are most welcome to contribute and partner in this
endeavor.
• Contributions and partnerships with relevant institutions, including UN
Agencies, the World Bank, OECD, IFPRI as well as further organizations and
academic institutions.
This workshop is a step in the direction of reinforced collaboration
and future partnership. Many thanks to all of you, we value very
much your inputs today

Requirements for a global
economy-wide model at FAO
Rob Vos, ESA Director,
19/02/2016

Major Topic: FSN in the Long Term
FoodSecurityandNutrition
Access
Availability
Utilization
Stability
Agricultural and food production,
stock levels, trade
Dimensions Components
Levels and distribution of incomes and
assets, expenditure, markets, prices
Sufficient energy and nutrient intake
by individuals, food preparation and
storage
Climatic conditions, resilient and
sustainable production systems,
economic factors
Qualitative and Quantitative
Analyses and Projections

Implications for Analytical Tools
Requirementsfortoolsandresults
Tractable
Consistent
Replicable
Open
Building on in-house data and results, grounding
in economic theory and agronomic expertise,
replicable by other users
Meeting informational demands of interested
audiences, available to the public
Sources of counter-intuitive results should be
clearly identifiable and explainable
Tools should be available in-house and releasable
to interested users without restrictions. They
should be usable in combination and individually,
depending on exercise, and changeable by staff,
and to the extent possible, by remote users
Transparent
Relevant
Modular
Accessible

State of the Art I
Multi-regional, multi-commodity partial equilibrium model
• 110 regions
• 42 agricultural activities (supply) which produce 35 commodities
• 41 activities are modelled, 1 is used to derive “other” land
demand
• 32 commodities are derived from FAO-FBS
• 3 commodities are used to close balances on calories
• Modell allows for joint production (cotton) and multi-activity
production (e.g. sugar beet & cane, vegetable oils, milk)
Dynamic parameters calibrated to AT2030/50 report (Alexandratos
& Bruinsma, 2012) and conditional on income/price/supply
elasticities taken over from IMPACT v3.0
Global Agriculture Perspectives System (GAPS-PE)

State of the Art II
Multi-regional, multi-commodity general equilibrium model
• Abridged recursive-dynamic multi-country version of IFPRI
standard model
• Build on GTAP 9 database augmented with SNA data
• 14 Activities, distinguishing farming and food production, 1
household, number of regions depending on available data
Used for testing of alternative specification for formal
representations of agents and markets and data requirements
Test version of a Global CGE Model

What FAO-GPS has done so far and how?
Global perspective studies (GPS) has a long tradition at FAO:
• Since the 70s: “Indicative World Plan for Agricultural Development (1970)”.
• Series of publications “World Agriculture towards 20XX”: long-term
projections of agricultural, food security and natural resource use.
• Multiple analyses of global trends and perspectives of agricultural
investments, natural resources use (land, water), fertilizers use, and links to
food security and nutrition.
• In-house database development in collaboration FAOSTAT, specialized teams
working on food security and natural resources (ES, NRL, NRC), etc.
Future work should build on this

Objectives of this Workshop
1. Discuss the nature of the scenario analysis to
underpin FAO’s global perspectives work
2. Identify how the scenario analysis can be supported
by a global model framework and what would be its
desirable characteristics
3. Identify usable existing models (including GAPS) and
what it would take to tailor these and combine to
FAO’s needs
4. Define steps to operationalize the model-based
scenario analysis
5. Discuss partnerships to make this happen (model
development and application)

Forward-looking scenarios:
Key questions for the FAT 2080
exercise
(and related modeling efforts)
Lorenzo Giovanni Bellù
Senior Economist
FAO-GPS team leader
19/02/2016

• World Agriculture towards 2030-2050 (AT 2050): Single long-term scenario
reflecting a (most plausible?) future state of agriculture with a focus on
use/availability of natural resources in different regions, built upon FAOSTAT
food/commodity balance sheets, other data sources and expert judgement.
• Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). On a parallel development the
integrated assessment modelling teams produced detailed Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which were used by climate modelling teams and
were considered in the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of
Climate Change (IPCC)
• Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Developed by IAM Consortium, SSPs are
five narratives for alternative futures based on “reference assumptions” related to
key socio economic variables (to replace the Special Report on Emission Scenarios
(SRES) (see for example Krieger et al., 2012; van Vuuren et al., 2012). Augmented
with climate policy dimensions (Shared Climate Policy Assumptions – SPAs)
A comprehensive review is beyond the scope here, and will be the object of a next
exercise, but we highlight selected works, as they help to “set the scene” for our
modelling efforts.
Scenarios for possible futures: who has done what

Scenarios for possible futures (Cntd.)
• OECD: Alternative Futures for Global Food and Agriculture (OECD alt.fut). von
Lampe, M. (2015). Alternative Futures for Global Food and Agriculture:
Developing Robust Strategies. TAD/TC/CA/WP(2015)1/FINAL, OECD.
• OECD. Securing livelihoods for all. (OECD sec. liv.) Foresight for action,
Development Centre Studies (2015). Not necessarily mutually exclusive
• IFAD. Scenarios for investments in rural development. Proceedings from the
workshop “Towards a high-Impact Demand-Driven research agenda” Dec. 1-3,
2015
• Agrimonde Terra foresight study. Focus on land
• European Commission Foresight. Maggio, A., van Criekinge, T., Malingreau, J. P.
(2015). Global Food Security 2030: Assessing trends with a view to guiding
future EU policies. Foresight Series, JRC Science and Policy Reports, European
Commission

Scenarios for possible futures
FAO AT2050 RCPs SSPs OECD
alt.fut.
OECD sec. liv. IFAD Agrimonde EC 2030
Single scenario,
no climate
change,
constant agric.
prices
+2.6 W/mq peak
(2060)
CO2concentr. and
decline to 400
PPM CO2 by 2100
SSP1:
Sustainability:
taking the green
road
Sustainability:
(Greening,
environmenta
l and social
focused
“Automated
North”
(inequality
increases,
south slower)
Low
institutional
capacity and
high-growth
pattern
Land uses for
food quality
and healthy
nutrition
(RCP 2.6)
Single
scenario
“Rosy
vision” to
2030, to
be realized
+ 4.5 W/mq
Stabilization by
2100 at 570 PPM
CO2
SSP2: Middle of
the road
(“moderate” of
everything)
Globalization:
Economic
growth
focused
Droughts and
joblessness in
the south
(Migrations,
inequality)
High
institutional
capacity and
high growth
Land uses for
regional food
systems
(RCP4.5)
+ 6.0 W/mq
Stabilization
beyond 2100 at
750 PPM CO2
SSP3: regional
rivalry
(resurgent
nationalism). A
rocky road
Separate
growth:
Sovereignty
and self
sufficiency
focused
Global financial
crash
(protectionism,
fragmentation,
governments
failure, inequa.)
Moderate
institutional
developmen
t with any
growth
uneven land
uses driven
by massive
urbanization
(RCP 8.5)
+ 8.5 W/mq
Increasing
CO2concentr.
(1250 PPM at
20100
SSP4: Inequality
across and
within
countries. A
road divided
Regenerative
economies
(sustainable
energy, jobs,
virtuous transf.
Very low
institutional
capacity
fragmented
world and
Land as
commons for
rural comm.
SSP5: Fossil
Fueled
development.
Taking the
highway
Creative
societies.
Technology
Unemployment
social experim.

Basic elements for scenario building
Demographics • Total population and age cohorts
• Migration within and between countries
Economic development • Global and regional GDP
• Inequality between and within countries
• Investment, savings and capital accumulation
• Structure of sectoral income
Environmental trends • Availability of natural resources and degree of
degradation
• Climate change, adaptation and mitigation
• Sources of emissions
Energy • Sources of energy (e.g fossil-based/renewables,
nuclear, other)
• Demand for energy and type of uses
Technology • Rate of technological change and factor productivity
• Emerging and new technologies
Enabling environment • Institutions
• Policies
• Preferences
Scenarios for FAT 2080: Not there yet, but key elements can already be identified…

Key questions for FAT 2080
1. Population growth and migration Pressure on natural resources? Migrations?
Urbanization?
2. Limits to natural resource uses FNS achievements in danger? Yield increases
and/or land expansion? Land degradation? Water?
3. Investment for development and
domestic asset generation
Investment needs in rural areas? Public vs private?
Foreign vs domestic? Investment for devt targets?
Need for CSA/mitigation? Doubling smallh. Prod?
4. Income generation and distribution Within and across countries? Convergence? Dietary
patterns? Asset accumulation? SME and/or SP?
5. Structural change Jobless development? Implications of Clim.Smart.
Agriculture? Migrations? Job absorption by manuf?
6. Emerging global food value chains Which type of Glob. VC are good for FNS? Income
distribution?
7. Climate change and development
perspectives
Impacts on yields and land? Mitigation where?
CSA? Payments for envir services?
8. The Energy-Agriculture-Climate
Change nexus
Biofuels? CSA and energy requirements? Carbon
taxes and food prices?
Scenarios for FAT 2080: …and key questions can already be raised:

The workshop
• Agenda
• Modalities
• Rules:
–focus on the workshop objectives
–write down your main ideas and
recommendations
• Logistical announcements
20