The document discusses the CGIAR Foresight Analysis Project, which addresses global food security challenges through integrated modeling tools. It highlights the significance of foresight assessments in sustainable agricultural intensification and smallholder systems, showing potential impacts on yield and trade-offs. Additionally, it outlines the limitations of the global modeling framework and the ongoing improvements of the biosight project to enhance modeling capacity.

1. Foresight modeling to guide sustainable intensification
of smallholder systems
Dolapo Enahoro
Agricultural Economist, ILRI
International Conference on Integrated Systems
International Institute for Tropical Agriculture, Ibadan, Nigeria
March 3 - 6, 2015

2. Road Map
 Background to GFSF project
 Approach to quantitative modeling in
GFSF project
 Some results and relevance to sustainable
intensification of agricultural systems
 Limitations of the global modeling
framework
 Links to farm level approaches and
introduction of BioSight project
 Discussion

3. Background to CGIAR foresight analysis project
 Growth in human population, rising
incomes, natural resource degradation,
and Climate Change pose challenges to
global food security
 Integrated modeling tools useful to
assess the challenges and technology,
policy and other options needed
 The Global Futures and Strategic
Foresight (GFSF) project provides a
platform of foresight analysis useful to
research, donor and policy communities
 12 participating CG centers, led by IFPRI

4. GFSF approach to quantitative modeling
System of linked simulation models of global agriculture
• IMPACT multi-country, multi-market economic model
• Water model (hydrology, water basin management, crop water stress)
• Crop simulation models (DSSAT);
• Livestock, Fish modules
Long-run ex ante scenario analysis
• Demand, supply and trade of agricultural commodities
• Technology, investment, policy options
• Climate Change effects and adaptation strategies
Global economic assessments of Promising Technologies
• High yield, drought , heat tolerance traits in virtual crop varieties
• Breed, feed and animal health solutions to livestock yield gaps

5. Projections for Agricultural Commodities
IMPACT projections to 2050
(Rosegrant et al.,):
• Expansion in demand for meat,
dairy, cereals, livestock feeds
• Higher prices of major
agricultural commodities
Livestock systems characterization
(Herrero et al.,):
• Significant (growing?) yield gaps
• Mixed, industrial systems growing
faster than pastoral
• Implications for biophysical and
socio-economic balances and
trade-offs

6. Results from Analysis of Promising Technologies
New virtual crops under a drier
future scenario (Robinson et al.,):
• Climate Change (CC) impacts are
negative under baseline scenario
• All PTs have beneficial effects on
crop yields in the CC scenario
• The beneficial effects strong for
maize, potato, groundnut
• Implications for livestock-
oriented systems (not tested)
• Global effects minimal in line
with assumptions on adoption
• Expanded (testing of) adoption of
adaptation strategies important

7. Relevance to Sustainable Intensification and
Smallholder Agriculture
Foresight Assessments useful in:
 discussion on pathways to food security in the future
 bridging local and global dynamics e.g., through the improved
disaggregation plus international trade features of the models
 testing the roles and ex ante impacts of candidate technologies,
investments, policies
 Virtual cultivars assessed under PT platform directly applicable to smallholder
agriculture in the selected countries and regions
 assessing systems and regions for growth potential and response to
shocks e.g., through improved production system characterization
 some trade-off assessment relevant at the macro-scale
• regional competition for biomass as food, feed, energy stock
• natural resource issues related to intensification
• economic benefits to consumers and producers

8. Limitations of the global modeling framework
Generally:
• Expected loss of technical detail on production processes
• Dichotomy between theory and empirics can be more marked
• Data availability, consistency and aggregation issues may be more
pronounced; resources and coordination typically more involving
Specific to model applicability:
• Focus is on international trade and relevant commodities
• Joint (production and consumption) decision-making characteristic of
many smallholder systems not captured
• Important crop-livestock interactions, production-environment
linkages not captured
• Gender dimensions largely difficult to capture

9. Improving capacity of the modeling framework
Ongoing
 Model and data validation including using micro/meso data
 Expanded country, region and commodity sets
 Enhanced supply-side specification to better reflect
heterogeneity (e.g., of livestock production systems)
Proposed
 Strengthen links to methodologies and tools better able to
make use of micro-data (example, BioSight project)
 Adapt agronomic modeling tools used to simulate virtual
crops so they can better capture intensification strategies
(especially w.r.t. crop-livestock linkages)

10. BioSight Project on Sustainable Intensification
• Funded by CGIAR research program on Policies, Institutes and Markets
• Combines biophysical and economic analysis to directly address key
synergies and trade-offs of alternative ag intensification strategies
• Links methodologies addressing intensification of crop and livestock
production systems and links with environment impacts
• Uses household-specific micro-data (from AfricaRISING or other);
• Quantitative analysis set-up allows for modular linkage of production
response to household consumption & economic behavior
• Scope of analysis: farm-level mostly, with possibilities to aggregate up
• Plan to expand to include aquaculture & agro-forestry prodn systems
• Focus is on the short-to-medium term
• Partnering with CG (and non-CG) analysts to create actionable policy
recommendations around sustainable agricultural intensification

11. Discussion
 What can global foresight analysis contribute to the research for
impact agenda on sustainable intensification of agriculture?
 What can it not contribute?
 What role is there in the research for impact portfolio on Sustainable
Intensification and Smallholder Agriculture, for a platform like the
Global Futures and Strategic Foresights project?

12. Global Futures and Strategic Foresights Project is supported by:
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
CGIAR research program on Climate Change, Agriculture and
Food Security (CCAFS)
CGIAR program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM)
In Collaboration with:
The University of Florida; national research systems (various)
Acknowledgements

13. Thank You!
GFSF Project is implemented by:
CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICARDA, ICRISAT, ICRAF, IITA,
IFPRI, ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, Worldfish

14. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
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