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How climate change may affect global food demand and supply in the long-term?

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How climate change may affect global food demand and supply in the long-term?

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How climate change may affect global food demand and supply in the long-term?

  1. 1. Economic and Social Development Department Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations How climate change may affect global food demand and supply in the long-term? Aikaterini Kavallari Global Perspective Studies Team
  2. 2. Economic and Social Development Department Challenges to ensure sustainable food security in the future
  3. 3. Economic and Social Development Department 131 48 15 68 30 6 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 sub-Saharan Africa South Asia East Asia Near East & N. Africa Latin America Developed countries Incremental population growth 2005/07-2050, millions (left-axis) Percent population growth 2005/07-2050 (right-axis) Source: United Nations Population Division (2009). An additional 2.5 billion persons—to 9.1 billion in 2050
  4. 4. Economic and Social Development Department 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Developing countries sub-Saharan Africa South Asia East Asia Near East & N. Africa Latin America Average per capita incomes relative to developed countries 2006, percent Average per capita incomes relative to developed countries 2050, percent GDP per capita gaps converge only modestly Source: Development Prospects Group, The World Bank.
  5. 5. Economic and Social Development Department Agricultural production growth slows down Source: FAO. 24 77 60 57 317 170 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Developed countries Developing countries World Percent change over period 1961/63-2005/07 2005/07-2050
  6. 6. Economic and Social Development Department Potential impacts of climate change on global food demand and supply - empirical results based on Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Phase 1-
  7. 7. Economic and Social Development Department The climate modeling chain in AgMIP: from biophysical to socioeconomic General circulation models (GCMS) Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) Global economic models DTemp DPrec Dyield (Biophysical) DArea DYield DCons DTrade Climate Biophysical Economic RCP’s Farm practices CO2 Pop. GDP Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013). Reference scenario: SSP2 (no climate change) Climate scenario: RCP 8.5
  8. 8. Economic and Social Development Department -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 Wheat Rice Coarse grains Oil seeds Sugar CR5 IPSL/LPJ HADGEM2/LPJ IPSL/DSSAT HADGEM2/DSSAT Source: Nelson et al. (2014). Note: CR5: average of the five crops Climate change impacts, percent change in exogenous yields relative to reference in 2050
  9. 9. Economic and Social Development Department Percentchange -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 n Mean SD 2891 -0.17 (0.131) 2891 -0.11 (0.166) 2891 0.11 (0.249) 2891 -0.02 (0.25) 2891 -0.01 (0.264) 2891 -0.03 (0.063) 2891 0.2 (0.242) YEXO YTOT AREA PROD TRSH CONS PRICE Climate induced changes to global yields, land use, production, trade, consumption and prices relative to reference for CR5 in 2050 Source: Nelson et al. (2014). Notes: YEXO: exogenous yields,; YTOT: final yields; AREA: crop area; PROD: domestic production; TRSH: net imports relative to production; CONS: consumption; PRICE: average producer prices
  10. 10. Economic and Social Development Department Conclusions
  11. 11. Economic and Social Development Department Take away messages • Climate impacts will negatively affect commodity prices, with many of the increases ranging from 5-25% • Food consumption is expected to drop implying that climate change may well exacerbate food security concerns • Globally consumption responds less than supply because food demand is not so sensitive to price changes • Still effects will be felt more in specific regions with already stressed natural resources • Variability in trade and crop area responses is due to the varying assumptions about trade flexibility and ease of land conversion in the models -> both of which imply different degrees of adaptation to changes in agricultural markets
  12. 12. Economic and Social Development Department Further reading Special issue of Agricultural Economics (2014): http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/agec.2014.45.issue-1/issuetoc • von Lampe, Willenbockel et al., “Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison” • Robinson, van Meijl, Willenbockel et al., “Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system” • Valin, Sands, van der Mensbrugghe et al., “The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models” • Schmitz, van Meijl et al., “Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison” • Müller and Robertson, “Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling” • Nelson, van der Mensbrugghe et al., “Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don’t the models agree” • Lotze-Campen, von Lampe, Kyle et al., “Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison” Special issue Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) (2014): http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3274.abstract • Nelson, Valin et al., “Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks”
  13. 13. Economic and Social Development Department Annex
  14. 14. Economic and Social Development Department Terminology • SSPs: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways • RCPs: Representative Concentration Pathways • IPR: Intrinsic Productivity Rate • AgMIP: Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project (http://www.agmip.org/) • LPJml: Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land Dynamic Global Vegetation and Water Balance Model • DSSAT: Decision Support System for Agricultural Technology • HadGEM2: Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 • IPSL: climate model of the Institute Pierre Simon Laplace
  15. 15. Economic and Social Development Department Reference scenario details • Based on the SSP2 narrative • Assumes a middle of the road growth of the economy with intermediate socioeconomic challenges to climate change adaptation and mitigation • Population and GDP growth path taken over from the SSP database, based in IIASA and OECD projections respectively https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web- apps/ene/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about
  16. 16. Economic and Social Development Department Climate scenario details • Radiative forcing of over 8.5 watts per square meter by the end of the century • Excludes potentially positive effects of increasing CO2 concentration • Crop models assume constant management practices (e.g. sowing dates) • Crop models did not include effects of increased ozone concentration, increased weather variability and greater biotic stress

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