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Presentation for Transforming Transportation Inter-American Development Bank January 15, 2010 Lee Schipper, Ph.D. Project Scientist, Global Metropolitan Studies, UC Berkeley Senior Research Engineer, Precourt energy Efficiency Center, Stanford *  Opinions strictly those of Dr Schipper. Analysis work funded by the World Bank;  Scenario work funded by the Institute for Transportation Policy Studies, Japan Visioning Scenarios for Transport and CO2  For Latin America in 2050: You Can’t See the Future  Unless You Have the Right Glasses
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
WORLD CARBON EMISSIONS: TRANSPORT The Latin American Share Is Small CO2 a Symptom of Latin America’s Transport Problems
CO2 Emissions: Is Latin America Different? Total, Per Capita, or Per GDP ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],L. America Ic Different: High Emissions for Road Transport High Or Low CO2 Not The Issue: The Issue is Transport
Road Transport Emissions  Relative to GDP? Falling Only Very Slowly in Latin America * 1990 figure includes many non-transport uses *
Light Duty Vehicle Ownership and Income Latin America is High for Its Income – the Link to CO2
Light Duty Vehicles Dominate Urban Streets and CO2 Emissions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Hard to Address CO2 without Improving Urban Transport Including Problems of Transit and Land USe
CO2 Emissions from Road Transport in MCMA –  The Urban Share by Vehicle Type *Source: This study based on SMP/WBCSD and IEA/MOMO estimates by mode 2005
CO2 Emissions from Road Transport in MCMA –  Similar Patterns for Bogota, Santiago, S Paulo * *Source: MCMA Bottom-up Emissions Inventory S.  Paulo has lower emissions from LDV because of alcohol, but still bad traffic
The Future for Transport and Emissions  as LDV Dominance Grows ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Future Latin America  Passenger Road Transport CO2 Driving Force is LDV Ownership and Use (Source WBCSD  Sustainable Mobility Project ) LDVs out  of control
Bus Rapid Transit – Mexico’s  1 st  Metrobus Line 260,000 people/day over 19km for US $80mn Lower emissions, CO2, reduced car traffic
Metrobus as a Case Study in Co-Benefits How to Save CO2 Without Even Trying   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Metrobus CO2 Changes by Component CO2 Savings (10% of Corridor Emissions) as Cobenefit were  FREE Source Rogers 2006, 2009
Benefits from Metrobus: Broad Than Just CO2 Transport, Health Benefits >> CO2 Benefits Source Schipper et al 2009; INE 2006
What Trends and Projections Say About The Future Treat C02 as a Transport Problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Transport and CO2 in Latin America in 2050: The View from Scenarios ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Purpose of Scenarios is to turn Weak Links into Opportunities,  Not Reinforce Dangerous Trends
“ ASIF” Decomposition:  Road Map For Scenario Building Lesson: Attack all Problems of Transport Not Just Technological Efficiency and Fuels Air pollution, health impacts  Global CO2
Transport and CO2 in Latin America Two Approaches ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Transport and CO2 in Latin America in 2050 Why Scenarios? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Results Show Outcomes, but No Guarantee of Results Co-Benefits, “Good Transport” not CO2 Key Drivers
Three Modes Dominate Emissions Cars, Flying, Trucking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Broad Brush Appropriate, but Details Lacking to Validate  individual policies’ or technologies’ impacts
 
De-Carbing Transport in Latin America  AS – Activity and Mode Shares  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
De-Carbing Transport in L. America  IF – Fuel Intensity and Carbon Content ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Travel and Carbon Intensity Assumptions Pie in the Sky or Realistic
Scenarios Results for Latin America With A Real Effort, Latin America Will Have Lower Emissions Tomorrow
Key Messages: Saving CO2 in Latin America ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
TECHNOLOGY LEAPFROGGING  Gracias Lee Schipper –   schipper@berkeley.edu

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Visioning Scenarios for Transport and CO2 For Latin America in 2050: You Can’t See the Future Unless You Have the Right Glasses

  • 1.  
  • 2. Presentation for Transforming Transportation Inter-American Development Bank January 15, 2010 Lee Schipper, Ph.D. Project Scientist, Global Metropolitan Studies, UC Berkeley Senior Research Engineer, Precourt energy Efficiency Center, Stanford * Opinions strictly those of Dr Schipper. Analysis work funded by the World Bank; Scenario work funded by the Institute for Transportation Policy Studies, Japan Visioning Scenarios for Transport and CO2 For Latin America in 2050: You Can’t See the Future Unless You Have the Right Glasses
  • 3.
  • 4. WORLD CARBON EMISSIONS: TRANSPORT The Latin American Share Is Small CO2 a Symptom of Latin America’s Transport Problems
  • 5.
  • 6. Road Transport Emissions Relative to GDP? Falling Only Very Slowly in Latin America * 1990 figure includes many non-transport uses *
  • 7. Light Duty Vehicle Ownership and Income Latin America is High for Its Income – the Link to CO2
  • 8.
  • 9. CO2 Emissions from Road Transport in MCMA – The Urban Share by Vehicle Type *Source: This study based on SMP/WBCSD and IEA/MOMO estimates by mode 2005
  • 10. CO2 Emissions from Road Transport in MCMA – Similar Patterns for Bogota, Santiago, S Paulo * *Source: MCMA Bottom-up Emissions Inventory S. Paulo has lower emissions from LDV because of alcohol, but still bad traffic
  • 11.
  • 12. Future Latin America Passenger Road Transport CO2 Driving Force is LDV Ownership and Use (Source WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project ) LDVs out of control
  • 13. Bus Rapid Transit – Mexico’s 1 st Metrobus Line 260,000 people/day over 19km for US $80mn Lower emissions, CO2, reduced car traffic
  • 14.
  • 15. Metrobus CO2 Changes by Component CO2 Savings (10% of Corridor Emissions) as Cobenefit were FREE Source Rogers 2006, 2009
  • 16. Benefits from Metrobus: Broad Than Just CO2 Transport, Health Benefits >> CO2 Benefits Source Schipper et al 2009; INE 2006
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. “ ASIF” Decomposition: Road Map For Scenario Building Lesson: Attack all Problems of Transport Not Just Technological Efficiency and Fuels Air pollution, health impacts Global CO2
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.  
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. Travel and Carbon Intensity Assumptions Pie in the Sky or Realistic
  • 27. Scenarios Results for Latin America With A Real Effort, Latin America Will Have Lower Emissions Tomorrow
  • 28.
  • 29. TECHNOLOGY LEAPFROGGING Gracias Lee Schipper – schipper@berkeley.edu

Editor's Notes

  1. Hybrid bus……. TMilenio
  2. Hybrid bus……. TMilenio
  3. Hybrid bus……. TMilenio
  4. Hybrid bus……. TMilenio
  5. Hybrid bus……. TMilenio
  6. 2