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Transport and Mobility
A History
Emilia Suomalainen
emilia.suomalainen@gmail.com
https://www.nga.gov/features/slideshows/dutch-landscapes-and-seascapes-of-the-1600s.html
Contents
An overview of the current situation
How we got here
Where to next
An Overview of the
Status Quo
Car domination
Developed World
A “car culture” subventioned by public powers
Car dependence and car as a way of life
Long-term trends: increasing fuel efficiency but bigger and heavier cars
Recent trend: SUVs
Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) increasing exponentially but remain marginal for the
moment (except in Norway)
Developing World
Increasing demand for mobility (access to services)
Rising demand linked to population, income levels and GDP (economic growth)
Aspiration towards a car culture
South-East Asia: currently a lot of two and three wheelers
Rapid rise in motorisation and of related emissions
Major air pollution problems in cities
Transport Energy Use
IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2017, https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2017
Air Pollution
https://ourworldindata.org/outdoor-air-pollution
Mobility and Inequality
Mobility – access to services (work, recreation, shopping, …)
Strong link between income level and mobility, both within and across countries
Inequalities especially strong for car use and air travel
Consequence: emissions due to affluence rather than population
Transport poverty an issue also in developed countries
Car ownership vs. exclusion
Mobility and Inequality
Oswald et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0579-8
How Did We Get Here?
A historical view
100% Renewable and Sustainable
Transport
Mode Share in History
Walking: 1st mode of transport till 1970s in developed countries
Rise of car ownership (and oil consumption) after the 2nd World War
Car – a symbol of progress, liberty, modernity, mass consumption
Construction of highways (with gas stations) & annual holidays
Oil shocks in the 1970s
More efficient vehicles
Inelastic demand in the short term
Mode Share in History
Size of cities limited by the speed of transport
Supplies from hinterlands
Urbanisation and suburbanisation
Decline of city centres
The law of Zahavi: travel time ~1 hour per day
Population boom after the wars
Economic boom after the wars (« les trente glorieuses »)
Affordability of cars
Also low-cost air travel from 1990s
Mode Share in History
Aurélien Bigo 2020, http://www.chair-energy-prosperity.org/publications/vitesse-mobilites-france/
Mode Share in History
Aurélien Bigo 2020, http://www.chair-energy-prosperity.org/publications/vitesse-mobilites-france/
Paris Before the Automobile
New York Before the Automobile
https://www.collectorsweekly.com/articles/murder-machines/
History of EVs
http://www.avere-france.org/Site/Article/?article_id=5871
https://www.mobilitytechgreen.com/blog/2014/07/24/dossier-lhistoire-de-la-voiture-electrique/
Peak Car or No Peak Car?
Debate on “peak car” inconclusive
Phenomenon observed in certain cities (eg. Paris intra-muros, London) and developed
countries
Plateau or decrease in car use
Car ownership strongly linked to economic situation
Fewer young people are getting driving licences
Also “peak travel” in general
Cf. https://www.itf-oecd.org/peak-travel-peak-car-and-future-mobility
Peak Car or No Peak Car?
Goodwin 2012, https://www.itf-oecd.org/peak-travel-peak-car-and-future-mobility
Is There Another Way?
How to move away from the car culture
A Change is Coming…
Climate change mitigation requires moving away from fossil fuels
Paris Agreement: ambition to stay “well below 2°C” => global carbon budget
Net zero emissions by 2050
Peak oil: a future decrease in oil supply?
IEA: world conventional oil production peaked in 2008
Shale oil: a new golden age or a retirement party?
Bottom line: need to decarbonise transport and mobility
Global Warming
https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions
Carbon Budget
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-mitigation-2c
Where to Start?
Avoid – shift – improve:
1. Avoid: decrease the number and distance of (superfluous) trips
Eg. teleworking, consuming local
2. Shift: move towards more sustainable modes
Eg. long-distance rail, public transport, active modes
3. Improve: improve the efficiency
Electrification, fuel efficiency
Need for greater equity as some consume too much and others not enough!
Decarbonisation Scenarios
Brand et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111334
The Past is the Future?
Smaller, denser cities: active modes, public transport
No/less low-density, car-dependent suburbs
More local production, shorter supply chains
End of globalisation?
End of low-cost air travel?
Frugality, resource efficiency, less (superfluous) consumption
Basic needs vs. wants
Industrial ecology and lice-cycle perspective
Rethinking Our Cities
https://numericlandscape.org/2019/06/03/avez-vous-deja-entendu-parler-des-superblocks-de-barcelone/
Threats
No substitution of energy resources in the past, only addition!
Decreasing oil supply?
End of economic growth?
Political instability?
Climate change => massive migrations?
End of organised international community?
Problems with water supply, agricultural productivity, loss of biodiversity, destruction of
ecosystems, …
Heat waves, draughts, other natural disasters (wildfires, floods, …)
Inequality issues
Impacts of Climate Change
IPCC Special Report Global Warming of 1.5°C, https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/
Opportunities
A huge potential for efficiency improvements
Technological solutions are already here
Lots of superfluous travel
Young less attached to cars, with more ecological concerns
Rise of environmental movements and civil society
XR, Greta Thunberg, ...
More media coverage, impact of social media
Cognitive dissonance of the silent majority
But: lack of information and concrete action
It is possible to live well within planetary limits
Although it has never been done yet (cf. https://lili.leeds.ac.uk/)
Sustainable Lifestyles
Wiedmann et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16941-y
Decent Living Energy
Millward-Hopkins et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102168
Key Points
Climate change is the major challenge of our era
Requires decarbonisation of transport and mobility
Current transport system very much car-based in developed countries
… and developing countries aspire to the same
This car culture has shaped our way of life and our urban landscapes
Technological solutions are not enough, also need to change transport demand
A change of paradigm needed
Reading Tips
Work by Prof. Jillian Anable, Leeds and colleagues, eg. Rearranging elephants on the Titanic
Work by Prof. Julia Steinberger and colleagues, eg.
Scientists’ warning on affluence
Large inequality in international and intranational energy footprints between income
groups and across consumption categories
Providing decent living with minimum energy: A global scenario
The political economy of car dependence: A systems of provision approach
Discourses of climate delay
Your money or your life? The carbon-development paradox
Youtube talks by Prof. Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Teachings by J-M Jancovici (in French): https://slides.pimoid.fr/jancovici/mines_2019/
Thank you for your
attention!
Emilia Suomalainen
emilia.suomalainen@gmail.com
Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-NC-ND

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Transport and Mobility - A History

  • 1. Transport and Mobility A History Emilia Suomalainen emilia.suomalainen@gmail.com https://www.nga.gov/features/slideshows/dutch-landscapes-and-seascapes-of-the-1600s.html
  • 2. Contents An overview of the current situation How we got here Where to next
  • 3. An Overview of the Status Quo Car domination
  • 4. Developed World A “car culture” subventioned by public powers Car dependence and car as a way of life Long-term trends: increasing fuel efficiency but bigger and heavier cars Recent trend: SUVs Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) increasing exponentially but remain marginal for the moment (except in Norway)
  • 5. Developing World Increasing demand for mobility (access to services) Rising demand linked to population, income levels and GDP (economic growth) Aspiration towards a car culture South-East Asia: currently a lot of two and three wheelers Rapid rise in motorisation and of related emissions Major air pollution problems in cities
  • 6. Transport Energy Use IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2017, https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2017
  • 8. Mobility and Inequality Mobility – access to services (work, recreation, shopping, …) Strong link between income level and mobility, both within and across countries Inequalities especially strong for car use and air travel Consequence: emissions due to affluence rather than population Transport poverty an issue also in developed countries Car ownership vs. exclusion
  • 9. Mobility and Inequality Oswald et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0579-8
  • 10. How Did We Get Here? A historical view
  • 11. 100% Renewable and Sustainable Transport
  • 12. Mode Share in History Walking: 1st mode of transport till 1970s in developed countries Rise of car ownership (and oil consumption) after the 2nd World War Car – a symbol of progress, liberty, modernity, mass consumption Construction of highways (with gas stations) & annual holidays Oil shocks in the 1970s More efficient vehicles Inelastic demand in the short term
  • 13. Mode Share in History Size of cities limited by the speed of transport Supplies from hinterlands Urbanisation and suburbanisation Decline of city centres The law of Zahavi: travel time ~1 hour per day Population boom after the wars Economic boom after the wars (« les trente glorieuses ») Affordability of cars Also low-cost air travel from 1990s
  • 14. Mode Share in History Aurélien Bigo 2020, http://www.chair-energy-prosperity.org/publications/vitesse-mobilites-france/
  • 15. Mode Share in History Aurélien Bigo 2020, http://www.chair-energy-prosperity.org/publications/vitesse-mobilites-france/
  • 16. Paris Before the Automobile
  • 17. New York Before the Automobile https://www.collectorsweekly.com/articles/murder-machines/
  • 19. Peak Car or No Peak Car? Debate on “peak car” inconclusive Phenomenon observed in certain cities (eg. Paris intra-muros, London) and developed countries Plateau or decrease in car use Car ownership strongly linked to economic situation Fewer young people are getting driving licences Also “peak travel” in general Cf. https://www.itf-oecd.org/peak-travel-peak-car-and-future-mobility
  • 20. Peak Car or No Peak Car? Goodwin 2012, https://www.itf-oecd.org/peak-travel-peak-car-and-future-mobility
  • 21. Is There Another Way? How to move away from the car culture
  • 22. A Change is Coming… Climate change mitigation requires moving away from fossil fuels Paris Agreement: ambition to stay “well below 2°C” => global carbon budget Net zero emissions by 2050 Peak oil: a future decrease in oil supply? IEA: world conventional oil production peaked in 2008 Shale oil: a new golden age or a retirement party? Bottom line: need to decarbonise transport and mobility
  • 25. Where to Start? Avoid – shift – improve: 1. Avoid: decrease the number and distance of (superfluous) trips Eg. teleworking, consuming local 2. Shift: move towards more sustainable modes Eg. long-distance rail, public transport, active modes 3. Improve: improve the efficiency Electrification, fuel efficiency Need for greater equity as some consume too much and others not enough!
  • 26. Decarbonisation Scenarios Brand et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111334
  • 27. The Past is the Future? Smaller, denser cities: active modes, public transport No/less low-density, car-dependent suburbs More local production, shorter supply chains End of globalisation? End of low-cost air travel? Frugality, resource efficiency, less (superfluous) consumption Basic needs vs. wants Industrial ecology and lice-cycle perspective
  • 29. Threats No substitution of energy resources in the past, only addition! Decreasing oil supply? End of economic growth? Political instability? Climate change => massive migrations? End of organised international community? Problems with water supply, agricultural productivity, loss of biodiversity, destruction of ecosystems, … Heat waves, draughts, other natural disasters (wildfires, floods, …) Inequality issues
  • 30. Impacts of Climate Change IPCC Special Report Global Warming of 1.5°C, https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/
  • 31. Opportunities A huge potential for efficiency improvements Technological solutions are already here Lots of superfluous travel Young less attached to cars, with more ecological concerns Rise of environmental movements and civil society XR, Greta Thunberg, ... More media coverage, impact of social media Cognitive dissonance of the silent majority But: lack of information and concrete action It is possible to live well within planetary limits Although it has never been done yet (cf. https://lili.leeds.ac.uk/)
  • 32. Sustainable Lifestyles Wiedmann et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16941-y
  • 33. Decent Living Energy Millward-Hopkins et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102168
  • 34. Key Points Climate change is the major challenge of our era Requires decarbonisation of transport and mobility Current transport system very much car-based in developed countries … and developing countries aspire to the same This car culture has shaped our way of life and our urban landscapes Technological solutions are not enough, also need to change transport demand A change of paradigm needed
  • 35. Reading Tips Work by Prof. Jillian Anable, Leeds and colleagues, eg. Rearranging elephants on the Titanic Work by Prof. Julia Steinberger and colleagues, eg. Scientists’ warning on affluence Large inequality in international and intranational energy footprints between income groups and across consumption categories Providing decent living with minimum energy: A global scenario The political economy of car dependence: A systems of provision approach Discourses of climate delay Your money or your life? The carbon-development paradox Youtube talks by Prof. Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Teachings by J-M Jancovici (in French): https://slides.pimoid.fr/jancovici/mines_2019/
  • 36. Thank you for your attention! Emilia Suomalainen emilia.suomalainen@gmail.com Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-NC-ND