Transport and Climate in the Americas: Contribution to a cooler planet


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By Walter Vergara, Global Expert Team on Adaptation, World Bank.Presented on Day Two of Transforming Transportation. Washington, D.C. January 15, 2010.

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Transport and Climate in the Americas: Contribution to a cooler planet

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  2. 2. Transport and Climate in the AmericasContribution to a cooler planet<br />Walter Vergara<br />Global Expert Team on Adaptation<br />World Bank<br />January 15, 2010<br />
  3. 3. Global GHG emissions are on track to surpass worst <br />case IPCC scenario<br />End of century temperature<br />anomaly up to 6Celcius<br />3<br />Fuente: M. Raupach et al., Global and Regional Drivers of accelerating CO2 Emissions, PNAS, Vol. 104, No. 24, June 12, 2007.<br />
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  5. 5. Climate Hot-Spots in Latin America<br />
  6. 6. Strategy on climate change challenges in Latin America<br />Adaptation<br /><ul><li>Priority number one; Large costs imposed on global community by emission of GHGs. Irreversible impacts and loss of environmental services require immediate action</li></ul>Reduce carbon footprint of economic activities<br /><ul><li>Assist countries in the region to seek future growth along a low-carbon path, focused on power, transport and land use change</li></ul>Institutional strengthening, support access to information and linking science to development<br />seeking to link science and policy-making and empower the region to play an active and influential role in the international climate agenda. <br />
  7. 7. Ambitious adaptation program in the Americas<br />Started with Board approval of Caribbean Planning for Adaptation in 1997.<br />Ten adaptation dedicated projects in the portfolio<br />Trends before variability<br />Eco-system approach<br />Adaptation without mitigation is a losing proposition<br />Integration of the issue in sector policies<br />
  8. 8. Carbon Intensity excluding land use change and other gases (tCO2/PPP, GDP) by per capita Income, 2006<br />
  9. 9. Evolution of Transport Contribution to CO2 Emissions between 1990 to 2004<br />
  10. 10. Adapting transport<br />Share of emissions in LAC is 34% (500 MMT CO2 e) and growing the fastest of all sectors<br />Need to reduce its carbon footprint even if the cost of reductions today is higher than for reductions in other sectors<br />Part of a larger strategy seeking reductions in airborne toxics and thus health benefits for exposed populations<br />Improvements in public space allocation<br />
  11. 11. A Sokolow approach for transport<br />What does it take to cut 60 million tons of CO2 from annual emissions by 2020<br />200 BRTs (15 Km, 220,000 passengers day) with 30% hybrid articulated fleet would cut 20 MMT<br />Replacement of 50% of bus fleet with full electric vehicles in countries with low carbon power sectors (Brazil , Colombia, Venezuela) would displace 15 MMT<br />Modal shift (linked to urban planning) involving 20% displacement of cars toward public transport would displace 15 MMT<br />Improvements in 50% of small vehicle fuel efficiency (hybridization of fleet) , 10 MMT <br />
  12. 12. A Sokolow approach for transport<br />What does it take to cut 100 million tons of CO2 from annual emissions by 2020<br />All previous actions plus: <br />Improvements in 50% of small vehicle fuel efficiency (hybridization of fleet) , 10 MMT <br />Densification and improvements in urban planning in large urban areas, tied to transport optimization, 20 MT<br />Hybridization of freight fleets, 5 MT<br />Other measures, 15MT<br />
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  15. 15. Downpayment: Urban Transport Transformation Project<br />The Project Development Objective is to contribute to the transformation of urban transport in Mexican cities toward a lower carbon growth path.<br />This will be achieved by improving the quality of service provided by the urban transport systems in a cost efficient manner, and by deploying equipment, infrastructure, and operational strategies that reduce CO2 emissions. Achieving the objective will significantly reduce the overall transport sector carbon footprint and the emission of related air toxics.<br /> <br />
  16. 16. Downpayment on Sokolow: The Urban Transport Transformation project in Mexico<br />
  17. 17. UTTP: Activities<br />Low carbon transport infrastructure:<br />BRTS and other investments designed to abate the emissions from the sector.<br />BRTS would be integrated to other modes of transport and promote modal shift and access by non motorized transport<br />Urban light trains powered by zero carbon electricity<br />Low carbon rolling stock<br />Fleet of articulated hybrid vehicles (35% of total) and or other lequivalent low carbon vehicles<br />
  18. 18. Goals<br />Displace about 2 MMT annual Co2 e emissions for the Urban Transport Sector by 2017<br />Build and operate about 18 BRTs<br />Have a fleet of 350 articulated hybrid buses on operation<br />Scrap about 1000 old vehicles<br />Financing: US$2.2 billion, including US$0.4 billion through the World Bank<br />