Holistic flood risk management in the Elbe estuary – the pearl approach

1. Holistic Flood Risk
Management in the Elbe
Estuary – The Pearl
Approach
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M.Sc. A. Gruhn,
Dr.-Ing. N. Manojlovic
Dipl.-Ing. Ilya Gerschivic
Dipl.-Ing. Suleman Shaikh
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Peter Fröhle
Hambrug University of Technology

2. The Elbe Estuary
HAMBURG
North Sea
weir Geesthacht
Elbe Estuary
SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN
LOWER SAXONY
protection infrastructure
Discharge
High precipitation

3. Problem description
Multi hazards - storm surge, heavy precipitation
Type of Hazard: Floods in estuaries (incl. failure of flood protection
infrastructure)
Risk:(Anticipated) increased probability and consequences of flooding
of the hinterland due to:
1. Sea-level rise, increase of storm events and higher hydrological
loads
2. Urbanisation of the hinterland and higher utilization pressure
3. Impacts of the policy making towards climate change adaptation
resulting in an unbalanced risk distribution in the entire estuary
system, which is governed within several administrative units
(authorities) (main focus)

4. Research focus within PEARL (I)
• Main focus:
HAMBURG
North Sea
weir Geesthacht
Elbe
Estuary
SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN
LOWER SAXONY
2. Interface
with the
real time
(BHS) Data,
e.g Gauge
Cuxhaven.
1.
Hydrodynamic
model of the
Elbe Estuary
1, 23,4
5. Failure of
the flood
protection
infrastructure
6. Hinterland flooding&
holistic risk assessment
Holistic Flood Risk Management
in the Elbe Estuary
- Operational level
- Strategic level
- Technical (models and tools)
- Social (stakeholder involvement)

5. Research focus within PEARL (II)
Weir Geesthacht
North Sea
Storm surge
1. Hydrodynamic model
X1. Measures
(e.g. evacuation,
Strengthening of dikes)
Hamburg, St. Pauli
Cuxhaven
Strategic planning
4. Failure of FPM + Hinterland inundation
X2. measures (z.B.: Polder, 2. Dike line)
3. Probability of failure
(Risk, Probabillistic) of FPM
Situation n
1,2,3,(4),(5)  X1,X2, Xn
5. Hydrodanmic effectiveness,
Change of risk
DGM1© LVermA-SH

6. Research focus within PEARL (III)
• Analysis and quantification of the Interdependences/ interactions
between processes (WP2)
• Application of the developed modelling framework and tools for risk
assessment (WP2)
• Application of the holistic risk assessment approach and modelling
platform (WP3)
• Real time modelling and application of the GPU for the KALYPSO
evacuation module (WP4)
• i) Sensitivity study to assess (climate) adaptation measures, ii)
Application of the developed modelling framework for the selection
of measures and strategies, iii) Organization of LAAs to support
active SH participation (WP5)

7. The Elbe Estuary Model (I)
Water level
boundary
Discharge
boundary
• Model set up with
KalypsoTelemac
 Telemac 2D
• Boundaries:
 H-Boundary:
o Cuxhaven
 Q-Boundary:
o Geesthacht
• Calibration with focus to
hydrodynamic
 16 water level gauges
 6 velocity stations

8. The Elbe Estuary Model (II)
• Implementation of MOS-
Prediction (BSH, early
waring system)
 current and predicted water
level database
• 9 Gauges along Elbe
Estuary:
 Cuxhaven, Brunsbüttel,
Brokdorf, Glückstadt, …
• Aim: predicted storm surges
as input of the operational
Elbe Esturary model

9. Methodology of contingency
management
• Development of a methodology for contingency management
(evacuation) and its implementation in the Kalypso Evacuation
Module
 Objective: real-time, close to reality simulation (i.e. to consider each pedestrian
individually)
 Extending the models chain of Elbe Estuary model
• The theoretical model - A spatially continuous force-based model for
simulating pedestrian dynamics (in collaboration with the research
centre for super computing Jülich)

10. Holisic Risk assessment
• Investigate different aspects of holistic risk assessment
 RAFT/RAFT detailed, institutional model, direct/indirect economic models, risk
perception  adjusted models
 For the beginning: investigation of direct/indirect economic damages  ports,
indirect tangible damages of disaster, critical infrastructure

11. Stakeholder involvement
• Stakeholder analysis performed (analysis of the key actors and their
characterisation (e.g. power/ predictability, interactions and
interdependences)
– Assessment of the development of the stakeholders with extreme events
Rainbow diagramm
Interrelations between stakeholders, decisions made and consuequences

12. Stakeholder involvement (I)
• Rethinking the LAA concept: tailored approach rather than group
sessions
– Key stakeholder have been selected based on their level of affect and influence
BSU, LSBG, BSH, Ministry for Interior Affairs, Hamburg Port Authority
– Identified stakeholders have been individually contacted expertise, interest
and expectations and the potential contribution related to PEARL been surveyed

13. Summary
• Build up an operational and strategic Elbe estuary model
• Early warning system, Evacuation model
• Holistic risk assessment  different adjusted models
• Adjusted stakeholder involvement
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh
Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under Grant agreement n° 603663 for the research
project PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastaL regions).

14. Thank you for your attention.