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DAFNE case study on the Zambezi river basin

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By Prof. Imasiku A. Nyambe and Paolo Burlando

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DAFNE case study on the Zambezi river basin

  1. 1. www.dafne-project.eu @dafne_project DECISION ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK TO EXPLORE THE WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS IN COMPLEX TRANSBOUNDARY WATER RESOURCES OF FAST DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. Funded under the H2020 Framework Programme of the EU, GA No. 690268 Case Study in the Zambezi River Basin Prof. Imasiku A. Nyambe1 and Paolo Burlando2 1University of Zambia 2 ETH Zurich paolo.burlando@ethz.ch
  2. 2. 1-02 1-06 1-03 1-08 1-07 1-05 1-09 1-12 1-13 1-11 1-10 1-04 1-01 1. Zambezi Delta 2. Tete 3. Shire/Lake Malawi 4. Mupata 10.Luanginga 11.Lungue Bungo 12.Upper Zambezi 13. Kabompo 5. Luangwa 6. Kariba 7. Kafue 8. Cuando/Chobe 9. Barotse Zambezi Sub-CatchmentsMotivation
  3. 3. Population Dens ity 0 - 20 21 - 88 89 - 245 246 - 460 461 - 1486 Parks Fores t Res erv e Gam e M anagement Area Gam e P ark National Park Partial Res erv e Recreation Park Saf ari A rea State F ores t W ildlife Res erv e Majrivs Lak es N EW S Population Density within the Sub-Basin LIVELIHOODS
  4. 4. Majority is Rain-fed Agriculture
  5. 5. WATER AND FOOD - Agriculture Sub- basin Irrigated area (ha) Projected (ha) Kafue 46538 20520 Kariba 44531 184388 Luangwa 17794 11063 Mupata 21790 8566 Shire 60960 101166 Tete 52572 55621 Delta 7664 99110 Others 7190 34207 Total 259,039 514,641 Country Irrigated area at present (ha) Irrigated area projected for 2025 (ha) Increase (%) Angola 6125 10 625 173 Botswana 0 20 300 -- Malawi 37 820 78 026 206 Mozambique 8 436 137 410 1629 Namibia 140 450 321 Tanzania 23 140 23 140 100 Zambia 74 661 61 259 82 Zimbabwe 108 717 183 431 169 Total 259, 039 514 641 199 Source: World Bank (2010)
  6. 6. Energy, existing and future; Southern Africa Power Pools
  7. 7. Topology of Zambezi: entry point for WEF?
  8. 8. Areas of particular ecological significance with regard to biodiversity and functioning of the natural ecosystem have been identified and ranked. Features considered: national parks, protected and wildlife areas, mangroves, river mouth, wetlands important for birds, wetland of specific concern, biodiversity, indigenous forest, world heritage site, Ramsar site, fish fauna. KEY ISSUES: Environmental sensitive areas map Source: ZRS, 2008
  9. 9. WEF Nexus Issues in the Zambezi Headline points • As the demands for water, energy and food increase due to population growth and rising living standards, so will the interconnectedness between the corresponding sectors; this is the so-called water-energy-food nexus. • In the near future, the irrigated area is expected to double and exceed 500.000 ha. • In terms of power, ongoing and planned projects will add 2700 MW to the electrical grid. • Projects in both sectors – agriculture and energy – are all located in the Middle and Lower Zambezi.
  10. 10. Summary of Basin Water Resources Strategic Issues Poor knowledge and organization in relation to water resources of the basin for both surface and groundwaters Limited infrastructure High vulnerability to natural disasters High climatic variability both temporal and spatial in the basin Low agricultural development and large food insecurity Large untapped hydropower potential Low coverage in water supply and sanitation Lack of appreciation and of water resources management strategies toward protection of valuable ecosystems Lack of multi-use water resources development and management strategies.
  11. 11. International Basin Level (IWRM Strategy) National level (NDP) Catchment level- Provincial (PDP) Sub-Catchment- District level (DDP) Local- Community (VDP) SADC, RBOs; Commissions, Technical -committees, ICPs, Regional Institutions (IUCN, SARDC, WWF, GWP,etc) NSC (Govt central departments, catchment councils, National NGOs, CWPs,etc Provincial govts, catchment councils, NGOs,CBO,etc Local govt, RDCs,Sub-catchment council, NGOs, CBOs, etc Basin Wide Forums, Traditional institutions (formal/informal), Village Devpt Committees, Chiefdoms,CBOs, NGOs, Verticalintegration???? Key Challenge-Integration-Various Levels Putting all these together
  12. 12. 12 DAFNE Partners Partners Country Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule Zürich Switzerland Politecnico di Milano Italy Int. Centre for Research on the Environment and the Economy Greece Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Belgium The University Court of the University of Aberdeen United Kingdom Osnabrück University Germany International Water Management Institute IWMI Sri Lanka African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science Kenya TBA Ethiopia University of Zambia Zambia Universidade Eduardo Mondlane Mozambique Vista Geowissenschaftliche Fernerkundung GmbH Germany ATEC-3D Ltd. United Kingdom European Institute for Participatory Media EV Germany Because of the Above the following partners came to together and were awarded this EU-funded project under Horizon 2020 - Water
  13. 13. 13 Project objectives • DAFNE stands for Decision-Analytic Framework to explore the water-energy-food NExus in complex and transboundary water resources systems of fast growing developing countries • DAFNE advocates an integrated water resources management approach, which explicitly addresses the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus. • It supports the promotion of a green economy in regions where infrastructure development and expanding agriculture have to be balanced with local social, economic, and environmental dimensions.
  14. 14. 14 Project objectives • DAFNE will analyse and quantify the WEF nexus with respect to the trade-offs between conflicting objectives, such as hydropower production vs. irrigation and land exploitation vs. conservation. • The overall objective is to establish a decision- analytic framework (DAF) for Participatory and Integrated Planning (PIP).
  15. 15. 15 The Decision-Analytic Framework The DAF is intended to be a quantitative assessment tool to facilitate social understanding of the impact and support comparative analysis of alternative pathways. It will be developed through extensive, quantitative analysis of the anticipated effects of alternative planning options on the broad range of heterogeneous and often competing interests in transboundary river basins, also addressing feedback mechanisms between the WEF components It will be informed by, improved upon and validated through: a) active engagement of stakeholders throughout the process, and b)involvement of international and local academic expertise (water engineering, agricultural sciences, natural sciences, environmental economics, water governance and law)
  16. 16. 16 Project Work Packages structure WP1: COORDINATION & MANAGEMENT WP3: WATER-ENERGY- FOOD NEXUS ANALYSIS & MODELLING WP4: MODELLING SOCIAL, ECONOMIC & INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTS WP5: DECISION ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK WP6: SYNTHESIS & PATHWAY TO IMPACT Direct links Feedbacks Secondary feedbacks WP2: DRIVER of WATER-ENERGY- FOOD NEXUS WP7: DISSEMINATION, OUTREACH & KNOW- HOW TRANSFER
  17. 17. 17 Demand Dynamics of socio-economic framework Feedback Subtasks WP2 ENVIRONMENT DEMOGRAPHY ENERGY & HYDROPOWER ECONOMYWATER DEMAND WATER AVAILABILITY POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY D E M A N D S O C I O - E C O N O M I C F R A M E W O R K 1.1 / 2.1 1.1 / 2.1 1.8 / 2.6 1.7 / 2.5 1.3 / 2.3 1.2 / 2.2 1.5 / 2.7 1.8 / 2.6 1.6 / 2.4 WP2 components and links Drivers of WEF Nexus (co-variation of climate and socio economic drivers)
  18. 18. 18 WATER QUALITY ECOSYSTEMS & ECOSYSTEM SERVICES HYDROLOGY & WATER RESOURCES AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY HYDROPOWER INTEGRATED MODEL OF WATER-ENERGY- LAND NEXUS WP2 DRIVER of WATER- ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS WP5 DECISION ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK WP2: DRIVER of WATER-ENERGY- FOOD NEXUS Direct links Feeds Task and subtasks WP3 3.1.2 3.1.5 3.1.4 3.1.3 3.1.1 3.2 WP3 model links • “2-core engine” • cause-effect relationships • scale modelling
  19. 19. 19 INDICATORS & VALUE FUNCTIONS ROBUST DECISION- ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK MODEL SCENARIO DISCOVERY ANALYSIS DESIGN OF ROBUST ADAPTATION PATHWAYS WP3: WATER- ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS ANALYSIS & MODELLING 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 Direct links Feedbacks Task WP5 WP5 task links feedback
  20. 20. 20 Project structure – The PIP procedure VNL (virtual negotiation lab) – WP6 In the virtual negotiationlab the stakeholder/DMs comparativelyassess the pathwayprovided by WP5 and negotiate to extract several interesting largelyagreedupon alternatives. DAF (decision analytic framework) – WP5 Robust pathways (sequences of actions) are selected via simulation-basedoptimizationof the integratedmodel built in WP3 fordifferent alternative combinations/timing of planning actions suggestedby WP3 and WP4 under current and future climatic andsocio-technological scenarios (WP3). Pathwayare assessedbased on the multiple indicators identified inWP2. The DAF provides: • Set of interesting alternative pathways for each scenarios considered. • A set of robust alternatives across all the scenarios. INDICATORS – WP2 • Evaluation Indicators representing the different stakeholder groups are identifiedsector by sector in collaboration withthe stakeholders and the decision makers. • Additional high level indicators can be formulatedin WP3 to capture governance, economic and legal aspect of general interest. MODELS – WP3/WP4 • Models of the natural processes are set up and validated • Models of the socio-economic processes are set up and validated • The model of the different components are combined into an integratedmodel ACTIONS and SCENARIOS – WP2 • Current baseline and future scenarios of the maindrivers (boundaries) of the system are built. • Planning and management actions, including infrastructural, normative and operational intervention are identified(the action will be combined into pathways: temporal sequence of set of actions) Set of feasible actions Trajectories of key variables (e.g. reservoir storages, water supply, agricultural production,…) Pathways and evaluation indicators Candidate pathways MONITORING – WP2 • Historical data acquisition • Large scale remote sensing and local scale Unmanned Aerial Vehicle surveys • Ground truth by fieldwork • Socio-economic surveys STAKEHOLDERSINVOLVEMENT STAKEHOLDERSINVOLVEMENT STAKEHOLDERS INVOLVEMENT STAKEHOLDERS INVOLVEMENT FEEDBACK MONITORING ACTIONS and SCENARIOS INDICATORS MODELS DAF VNL W2 W3 W2 W2 W6 W5 W4 Participatory & Integrated Planning Pathways Virtual Negotiation Lab Decision Analytic Framework
  21. 21. 21 Two transboundary pilot case studies ZAMBEZI • 2,700 km, 1.32 million km2 • longest east flowing river in Africa • 8 riparian states (Zambia, Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Tanzania). Four large hydropower dams since the 1970s (Kariba, Cahora Bassa, Itezhi-Tezhi and Kafue Gorges) WEF Issues: resource availability vs population density, expansion of irrigated agriculture, additional hydropower schemes, ecosystem conservation and expanding tourism. Lunsemfwa Catchment in Zambia One small catchment in MOZ
  22. 22. 22 DAFNE Expected Outcomes Innovative aspects 1. Advances in environmental monitoring: remote sensing will be combined with UAV-based data collection to supplement the currently limited ground monitoring capacity at a low cost; 2. Comprehensive modelling and integrated WEF model 3. Water management and planning based on robust Decision Analytic Framework 4. Methods and tools to facilitate and promote stakeholder engagement and participation in decision making 5. Improved methods for practical interactions between science and policy leading to a strong applicability of the above innovations 6. Transfer of knowledge on methods, monitoring and modelling (Geo- portal)
  23. 23. Contacted by Country/ Organization Title First_ Name Surname Designation Organization Angola Mr Manual Quintino National Director of water Resources Instituto Nacional de Recursos Hídricos Botswana Dr Obolokile Obakeng Director Department of Water Affairs Malawi Mr Pepani Kaluwa Director Department of Water Affairs Dinis Mozambique Mrs Suzanna Saranga-Loforte National Director DNA Namibia Mr Abraham Nehemia Under Secretary Ministry of Agriculture, Water & Forestr Tanzania Mr Sylvester Matemu SADC Contact Ministry of Water Development Imasiku Zambia Dr. Kenneth Msibi SADC water Imasiku Zambia Mr Christopher Chileshe Director Departement of Water Affairs Zimbabwe Mr. Tinayeshe Mutazu Director-Director Water Resources Planning and Manage Mozambique Ms Laura Nhancale Head of International Relations ? Zambia Mr Oscar S. Kalumiana Director Energy Department ? Zimbabwe Mr Munyaradzi Munodowafa Director Power Department ? Angola Dr Jose Rodrigues Prata Junior Permanent Secretary Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Tanzania Mrs Mrs Sophia Kaduma Permanent Secretary Ministry of Agriculture Food Security an Botswana Mr. Mr Neil Fitt Permanent Secretary Ministry of Environment Imasiku Zambia Mr Paul Kapotwe Director General Water Resources Management Authori Zimbabwe Permanent Secretary Ministry of Environment, Water & climat Imasiku Zambia Ms Abigail Bwanga Water Planner Ministry of Mines, Energy and Water Imasiku ZAMCOM Prof. Zebediah Phiri Executive Secretary Zambezi Watercourse Commission Dinis Mozambique Mr. Custodio Vicente Director General ARA-Zambezi (Zambezi Water Resour Imasiku ZRA Eng Munyaradzi Munodawafa Chief Executive Officer Zambezi River Authority Imasiku Zambia ZESCO Zimbabwe ZESA Mozambique HCB Imasiku GWP-SA Ms Ruth Beukman Executive Secretary Global Water Partnership Africa Imasiku SAPP Dr Lawrence Musaba Coordination Centre Manager SAPP Coordination Centre Imasiku WATERNET Dr Jean-Marie Kileshye Onema Project Manager WaternetPO Box MP600, Mount Pleasa Imasiku SADC-WATER Dr Kenneth Msibi Policy & Strategy Expert SADC Water Division Imasiku WWF Dr. / Mr. Nyambe / Jose Nyambe / Chiburre Project ManagerWWF Joint Zambezi River Basin Environment STAKEHOLDERS ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN Water Affairs in SADC + Commissioners GREENS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  24. 24. JOIN US IN LUSAKA AT 6th ZAMBIA WATER FORUM & EXHIBITION 12- 13TH JUNE, 2017
  25. 25. www.dafne-project.eu @dafne_project

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