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Climate Stress Testing Tool
(CST Tool)
Climate Adaptation Symposium
Delft Software Days (DSD-INT 2023)
November 29, 2023
M. Umit Taner, PhD
Conventional
approach
(predict → act)
What would the
future be?
(projections)
Seek optimality
How would the
system respond?
3
Emission Scenarios General Circulation Models (GCMs) Downscaling
Water system
model
Plan For these
Scenarios
Impact
Space
DSD-INT
2023
|
Climate
Adaptation
Symposium
3
Climate models project future climate
DSD-INT
2023
|
Climate
Adaptation
Symposium
4
But they disagree with each other
DSD-INT
2023
|
Climate
Adaptation
Symposium
5
… and we
have a lot of
models…
DSD-INT
2023
|
Climate
Adaptation
Symposium
6
… scenarios
depend on
climate
policies and
socio-
economic
trends…
DSD-INT
2023
|
Climate
Adaptation
Symposium
7
Conventional
approach
(predict → act)
DMDU
(Bottom-up
approaches)
What would the
future be?
(projections)
Seek optimality
How would the
system respond?
What are
vulnerabilities?
(stress testing)
Seek robustness
How concerned
shall we be?
(climate-informed
likelihoods)
Climate stress testing*
Define vulnerability
metrics criteria &
* Brown et al., 2013
DSD-INT
2023
|
Climate
Adaptation
Symposium
9
Online, open-source toolbox for rapid bottom-up
climate risk assessment
• Developed for general practitioners & analysts (GUI)
• Open-source software on the cloud, no installation necessary
• Readily linked to common climate datasets (CMIP6, ERA5, CHIRPs)
• Initially developed to assess hydrological risks (droughts and/or
floods)
DSD-INT
2023
|
Climate
Adaptation
Symposium
10
What the tool will do:
1. Create a project virtually at any basin/subbasin and rapidly
build a distributed hydrology model
2. Explore climate uncertainty from historical data & GCM
information
3. Design and execute a climate stress test to explore
hydrological outputs across a wide range of futures
4. Interactively assess vulnerabilities and risk with user-defined
thresholds and GCM information
DSD-INT
2023
|
Climate
Adaptation
Symposium
11
CST Tool: Some answers we can learn
➢ Discharge sensitivity to
∆temp and ∆precip
➢ Effect of earlier snow melt
on spring flows due to
warming
➢ Understand where low flow
criteria is violated
➢ Plausibility of occurrence
based on climate
projections
Now
GCM projections
(2035-2065)
DSD-INT
2023
|
Climate
Adaptation
Symposium
12
What it won’t be able to do
• Evaluate non-climatic uncertainties
• Water systems analysis: water use and allocation,
reservoir operations, demand management etc.
• Detailed project-level assessments with customized data
and models
• Adaptation planning: evaluate investments, trade-offs
DSD-INT
2023
|
Climate
Adaptation
Symposium
13
CST Tool: Software architecture
Request
Response
Web client Web service
Mongo
DB
Open-source python-
based workflow
management system
User input
• Project area
• Hydrological
variables
• Stress test
parameters
• Vulnerability
thresholds
• …
HYDROMT
Open-source python-package to build,
modify, analyze geospatial models
WEATHERGENR
Open-source R-package to simulate
daily, multi-grid, multi-variable series
WFLOW
Open-source spatially-distributed
hydrological modeling framework
Tools
DSD-INT
2023
|
Climate
Adaptation
Symposium
14
Weather generator
DSD-INT
2023
|
Climate
Adaptation
Symposium
Produces new weather
series: daily, multiple grids,
multiple variables
Coded in R (control from py)
Works with wflow forcings
(netcdf files)
Steinschneider and Brown 2013
15
Historical series
Reproduce natural variability with synthetic traces
• Means, variability, extremes
• Temporal correlations
• Spatial correlations between
grids & variables
• Wet & dry spells
DSD-INT
2023
|
Climate
Adaptation
Symposium
16
17
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
Time (year)
Temperature(degree
C
)
AMO, 40-50 year cycle
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Time (year)
Temperature(degree
C
)
ENSO, 3-7 year cycle
Preserves low-frequency variability
DSD-INT
2023
|
Climate
Adaptation
Symposium
17
DSD-INT
2023
|
Climate
Adaptation
Symposium
Impose desired climatic changes on historical traces
Means conditions
Shifts in intra-annual climate (seasonality)
High-order statistics (variance, extremes, transition probs.)
18
CST prototype (work-in-progress)
https://cst-toolbox.avi.directory.intra/
DSD-INT
2023
|
Climate
Adaptation
Symposium
19
Questions?
umit.taner@Deltares.nl

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DSD-INT 2023 Demo Climate Stress Testing Tool (CST Tool) - Taner

  • 1. Climate Stress Testing Tool (CST Tool) Climate Adaptation Symposium Delft Software Days (DSD-INT 2023) November 29, 2023 M. Umit Taner, PhD
  • 2. Conventional approach (predict → act) What would the future be? (projections) Seek optimality How would the system respond?
  • 3. 3 Emission Scenarios General Circulation Models (GCMs) Downscaling Water system model Plan For these Scenarios Impact Space DSD-INT 2023 | Climate Adaptation Symposium 3
  • 4. Climate models project future climate DSD-INT 2023 | Climate Adaptation Symposium 4
  • 5. But they disagree with each other DSD-INT 2023 | Climate Adaptation Symposium 5
  • 6. … and we have a lot of models… DSD-INT 2023 | Climate Adaptation Symposium 6
  • 7. … scenarios depend on climate policies and socio- economic trends… DSD-INT 2023 | Climate Adaptation Symposium 7
  • 8. Conventional approach (predict → act) DMDU (Bottom-up approaches) What would the future be? (projections) Seek optimality How would the system respond? What are vulnerabilities? (stress testing) Seek robustness How concerned shall we be? (climate-informed likelihoods)
  • 9. Climate stress testing* Define vulnerability metrics criteria & * Brown et al., 2013 DSD-INT 2023 | Climate Adaptation Symposium 9
  • 10. Online, open-source toolbox for rapid bottom-up climate risk assessment • Developed for general practitioners & analysts (GUI) • Open-source software on the cloud, no installation necessary • Readily linked to common climate datasets (CMIP6, ERA5, CHIRPs) • Initially developed to assess hydrological risks (droughts and/or floods) DSD-INT 2023 | Climate Adaptation Symposium 10
  • 11. What the tool will do: 1. Create a project virtually at any basin/subbasin and rapidly build a distributed hydrology model 2. Explore climate uncertainty from historical data & GCM information 3. Design and execute a climate stress test to explore hydrological outputs across a wide range of futures 4. Interactively assess vulnerabilities and risk with user-defined thresholds and GCM information DSD-INT 2023 | Climate Adaptation Symposium 11
  • 12. CST Tool: Some answers we can learn ➢ Discharge sensitivity to ∆temp and ∆precip ➢ Effect of earlier snow melt on spring flows due to warming ➢ Understand where low flow criteria is violated ➢ Plausibility of occurrence based on climate projections Now GCM projections (2035-2065) DSD-INT 2023 | Climate Adaptation Symposium 12
  • 13. What it won’t be able to do • Evaluate non-climatic uncertainties • Water systems analysis: water use and allocation, reservoir operations, demand management etc. • Detailed project-level assessments with customized data and models • Adaptation planning: evaluate investments, trade-offs DSD-INT 2023 | Climate Adaptation Symposium 13
  • 14. CST Tool: Software architecture Request Response Web client Web service Mongo DB Open-source python- based workflow management system User input • Project area • Hydrological variables • Stress test parameters • Vulnerability thresholds • … HYDROMT Open-source python-package to build, modify, analyze geospatial models WEATHERGENR Open-source R-package to simulate daily, multi-grid, multi-variable series WFLOW Open-source spatially-distributed hydrological modeling framework Tools DSD-INT 2023 | Climate Adaptation Symposium 14
  • 15. Weather generator DSD-INT 2023 | Climate Adaptation Symposium Produces new weather series: daily, multiple grids, multiple variables Coded in R (control from py) Works with wflow forcings (netcdf files) Steinschneider and Brown 2013 15
  • 16. Historical series Reproduce natural variability with synthetic traces • Means, variability, extremes • Temporal correlations • Spatial correlations between grids & variables • Wet & dry spells DSD-INT 2023 | Climate Adaptation Symposium 16
  • 17. 17 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 -0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 Time (year) Temperature(degree C ) AMO, 40-50 year cycle 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 Time (year) Temperature(degree C ) ENSO, 3-7 year cycle Preserves low-frequency variability DSD-INT 2023 | Climate Adaptation Symposium 17
  • 18. DSD-INT 2023 | Climate Adaptation Symposium Impose desired climatic changes on historical traces Means conditions Shifts in intra-annual climate (seasonality) High-order statistics (variance, extremes, transition probs.) 18