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Delft Software Days (DSD-INT 2023)
29 November 2023
IPCC Working Group II: From AR6 to AR7
Modelling implications
Bart van den HURK
WGII Co-Chair, IPCC AR7
AR6 Synthesis Report SPM Figure 4a
Headline statement from AR6
The year 2023
The year 2023
The year 2023
IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021
The silent disaster
Anneal mean
precipitation change
(%)
Mean temperature change (C)
IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021
The silent disaster
Anneal mean
precipitation change
(%)
Mean temperature change (C)
IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021
The silent disaster
Anneal mean
precipitation change
(%)
Mean temperature change (C)
World Weather Attribution, 2023
Special report on Cities and Climate Change
• Supported by Governments & UN-Habitat, C40 Cities, ICLEI, UCLGs, GCOM…
• Significant interest from practitioner, decision-making, and advocacy communities
• Involves contributions from all Working Groups
• Experts from many disciplines and including practitioners
The first report in AR7
• Mapping mitigation strategies in
system transitions
• For different urbanization typologies
• Evaluation potential of strategy
For SR-Cities:
→ Bring in cost/benefit analyses
→ Guidance for prioritization
dependent on potential and
development stage
→ Highlighting trade-offs and dilemmas
An action-oriented assessment
Example of “action oriented” impact modelling study
A rare event – at this location
Precipitation 13 juli Precipitation 14 juli
Near surface
Middle Atmosphere
Evaluation with climate statistics
No comparable
amounts in
summer
Was it climate change?
• In this area it never happened
before
Was it climate change?
• In this area it never happened
before
• In some of these areas similar
“water bombs” were recorded →
“july 2021” ~once per 400 yrs
• Climate increases probability but
with very uncertain extent
(+20 to + 800%)
What if the precipitation fell elsewhere?
“Free” draining area
Polder areas
close/below sea
level
https://publications.deltares.nl/11206890_010_0006.pdf
Drained regions
• Rapid and uncontrolled discharge → cascade of
peak levels
• Water damage → water safety
Polder areas
• Pumping capacity ~20mm/day
• Multiple polders drain at same discharge channels
• Long duration high water levels in large area
Water depth
200 mm
20
mm/day
• Climate is speaking for itself, the urgency
is on the action
• We’re seeking not only impact
assessments, but also action impact
assessments
• Engagement with action holders is more
needed than ever
Personal note, Bart van den Hurk
The AR7 messages
For more information: IPCC Secretariat: ipcc-sec@wmo.int IPCC Press Office: ipcc-media@wmo.int Visit ipcc.ch
@IPCC_CH
#IPCCReport
@IPCC @IPCC
linkedin.com/
company/ipcc
Thank you!

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DSD-INT 2023 Modelling implications - IPCC Working Group II - From AR6 to AR7 - van den Hurk

  • 1. Delft Software Days (DSD-INT 2023) 29 November 2023 IPCC Working Group II: From AR6 to AR7 Modelling implications Bart van den HURK WGII Co-Chair, IPCC AR7
  • 2. AR6 Synthesis Report SPM Figure 4a Headline statement from AR6
  • 6. IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021 The silent disaster Anneal mean precipitation change (%) Mean temperature change (C)
  • 7. IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021 The silent disaster Anneal mean precipitation change (%) Mean temperature change (C)
  • 8. IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021 The silent disaster Anneal mean precipitation change (%) Mean temperature change (C) World Weather Attribution, 2023
  • 9. Special report on Cities and Climate Change • Supported by Governments & UN-Habitat, C40 Cities, ICLEI, UCLGs, GCOM… • Significant interest from practitioner, decision-making, and advocacy communities • Involves contributions from all Working Groups • Experts from many disciplines and including practitioners The first report in AR7
  • 10. • Mapping mitigation strategies in system transitions • For different urbanization typologies • Evaluation potential of strategy For SR-Cities: → Bring in cost/benefit analyses → Guidance for prioritization dependent on potential and development stage → Highlighting trade-offs and dilemmas An action-oriented assessment
  • 11. Example of “action oriented” impact modelling study
  • 12. A rare event – at this location Precipitation 13 juli Precipitation 14 juli Near surface Middle Atmosphere
  • 13. Evaluation with climate statistics No comparable amounts in summer
  • 14. Was it climate change? • In this area it never happened before
  • 15. Was it climate change? • In this area it never happened before • In some of these areas similar “water bombs” were recorded → “july 2021” ~once per 400 yrs • Climate increases probability but with very uncertain extent (+20 to + 800%)
  • 16. What if the precipitation fell elsewhere? “Free” draining area Polder areas close/below sea level https://publications.deltares.nl/11206890_010_0006.pdf
  • 17. Drained regions • Rapid and uncontrolled discharge → cascade of peak levels • Water damage → water safety
  • 18. Polder areas • Pumping capacity ~20mm/day • Multiple polders drain at same discharge channels • Long duration high water levels in large area Water depth 200 mm 20 mm/day
  • 19. • Climate is speaking for itself, the urgency is on the action • We’re seeking not only impact assessments, but also action impact assessments • Engagement with action holders is more needed than ever Personal note, Bart van den Hurk The AR7 messages
  • 20. For more information: IPCC Secretariat: ipcc-sec@wmo.int IPCC Press Office: ipcc-media@wmo.int Visit ipcc.ch @IPCC_CH #IPCCReport @IPCC @IPCC linkedin.com/ company/ipcc Thank you!