This document discusses water resource management challenges in the Elbe Estuary region of Hamburg, Germany from both a research and municipal perspective. It outlines several key challenges including wide low-lying flood prone areas, stormwater and coastal flooding exacerbated by climate change. Several ongoing research projects are summarized, including developing statistical storm surge models, improving flood forecasting models, and assessing flood risks. Adaptation measures are discussed such as increasing water retention, giving rivers more space, and improving drainage. The document advocates for stakeholder involvement through "Learn and Action Alliances" to jointly assess adaptation measures and build acceptance of solutions.

1. Water resource management challenges and
perspectives: the research and the municipal point of
view with a focus on Hamburg
Gabriele Gönnert
Hamburg Administration of Streets, Bridges and Waters
Peter Fröhle
Hamburg University of Technology

2. Water resource management challenges and
perspectives: the research and the municipal point of
view with a focus on Hamburg
Peter Fröhle
Institute of River and Coastal Engineering
Hamburg University of Technology

3. Elbe Estuary Overview
High precipitation
Discharge
- Length 142 km: Cuxhaven
to the weir in Geesthacht
- Width: 500 m to 17 km
- tributaries
- Consistent dike line
- Mean tidel range
- Cuxhaven 3,0 m
- St. Pauli 3,6 m
- Hamburg to
Geesthacht 2,0 m
Hydrological System of a low lying area

4. Influence of Human Interventions:
Development of tidal range in Hamburg (Gauge St. Pauli)
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Strotmann & Fickert 2007

5. Challenges
• Wide low lying and flood prone areas
• Stormwater and Coastal Flooding
• Highly dynamic system
• Highly anthropogenic influenced system
• Climate Change will have negative effects on pluvial and fluvial
floods
• Responsibilities lay at the federal state level (Lower Saxony,
Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg)
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6. Hazards and Risk – technical aspects
• Hazards:
– North Sea / Elbe Storm Events
– Rainfall and pluvial flooding
– Drainage of the hinterland
– Effects of human interventions
– Climate change related effects
– Natural variation and developments
• Risk
– Hazards and hazard analyses
• Determination of probabilities and joint probabilities of loads
– Reliability analysis
• Determination of reliability of constructions
– Hydrodynamic analysis
• Consequences of failure, flooding of areas
– Consequences
• Damage potential and damages
– Communication and public awareness
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7. Hazards and Risk – technical aspects
• Hazards:
– North Sea / Elbe Storm Events
– Rainfall and pluvial flooding
– Drainage of the hinterland
– Effects of human interventions,
– Climate change related effects
– Natural variation and developments
• Risk
– Hazards and hazard analyses
• Determination of probabilities and joint probabilities of loads
– Reliability analysis
• Determination of reliability of constructions
– Hydrodynamic analysis
• Consequences of failure, flooding of areas
– Consequences
• Damage potential and damages
– Communication and public awareness
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8. • Statistical analyses of storm events
Processes – Risk Analysis
=
+
Storm surge = astronomical tide + wind set-up

9. Processes
• Parametrization of measured wind set-up
Parameters: i) maximum water level ii) fullness of set-up event iii) course of set-up event

10. Processes
Bi-variate statistical
analyses of
parameters using
Copula - functions
 Set of events with
identic probability /
average return period

11. Processes
Bi-variate statistical
analyses of
parameters using
Copula - functions
 Set of events for given
period as basis for
Monte-Carlo-Simulations

12. Processes
Determination
of storm events
 Course of set-up
statistically independent
427

13. Processes
• Automated storm surge
generator

14. Processes
• Automated storm surge
generator

15. Processes
• Automated storm surge
generator

16. Elbe Estuary Overview
High precipitation
Discharge
- Length 142 km: Cuxhaven
to the weir in Geesthacht
- Width: 500 m to 17 km
- tributaries
- Consistent dike line
- Mean tidel range
- Cuxhaven 3,0 m
- St. Pauli 3,6 m
- Hamburg to
Geesthacht 2,0 m
Hydrological System of a low lying area

17. Ongoing Research
• PEARL – Preparing for extreme and rare events in Coastal Areas
(holistic approach – multiple risks)
– Case study Hamburg / Elbe
• Elbe Estuary Model
– Operational model of the Elbe Estuary
» Online nowcast and forecast based on a combination of measurements, statistical
and numerical methods
» Implementation of “official” water level forecast into the model
» Integration of dike failure and real time mesh generation
» …
– Risk analysis
» Statistical classification of storm surges and dike failure
» Influence of parallel precipitation events
» Expectation of damages and losses for defined areas
» Evacuation
» Effectiveness of adaptation measure
» …
– Input in other WPs (wave modelling and climate change related effects) and
for other case studies (Rethimno – Sediment Transport and Coastal
Protection )
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18. Elbe Estuary Model
• Model set up with
KalypsoTelemac
• Telemac 2D
• Implementation of
MOS-Prediction
• Breaching process of
protection measures
• Flooding of the
hinterland
• Damage assessment
• Measures to minimize
risks
Water level boundary
Discharge boundary

19. Elbe Estuary Model
• Implementation of BSH - MOS-
Prediction
(Model Output Statistics)
• 9 Gauges along Elbe Estuary:
• Cuxhaven
• Brunsbüttel
• Brokdorf
• Glückstadt
• Stadersand
• Schulau
• Hamburg, St.Pauli
• Zollenspieker
• Geesthacht
Web-View: MOS-water level prediction of Cuxhaven

20. Ongoing Projects
• StucK – Stormwater management of coastal urban areas (Hamburg)
under the influence of climate change – LSBG
– High temporal and spatial measurement and forecast of precipitation with
high intensity or high volume
– Implementation of rainfall-run-off model and management of centralized
and de-centralized storages and drainage elements
– Acutal and future management of extreme situations and influence of
different water levels influenced by tides, storm events and climate
change
– Interdependencies between flood protection and ecology
– Application of results to selected urban project areas => Dove-Elbe and
Kollau
– Economic analysis
– Dissemination
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21. Planned projects
• Life-cycle management of hydraulic engineering and water
management constructions
– Actual and future design conditions
• Climate change
• Safety requirements
• Public requirements
• …
– Influence of maintennance
• Probabilistic approach of maitennance works
– Optimization of investment planning of flood protection and water
management constructions
• Date of rehabilitation / investment
• Scale of rehabilitation / investment
• Statistical / probabilistic assessment
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22. Open questions
• Hazards:
– North Sea / Elbe Storm Events
– Rainfall and pluvial flooding
– Drainage of the hinterland
– Effects of human interventions,
– Climate change related effects
– Natural variation and developments
• Risk
– Hazards and hazard analysis
• Determination of probabilities and joint probabilities of loads
– Reliability analysis
• Determination of reliability of constructions
– Hydrodynamic analysis
• Consequences of failure, flooding of areas
– Consequences
• Damage potential and damages
– Communication and public awareness
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23. Adaptation and Communication
23
Entwicklung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen
© Banksy

24. Development of
Solutions
Understanding and
Generation /
Dissemination of
Knowledge
Assessment,
Communication
and
Minimization of
Conflicts
Common Problem:
Adaptation to Climate
Change
KLEE
Learn and Action Alliances: Idea and Approach
Adaptation Measures
Participation of stakeholders

25. • Less water in the river
– Retention of water in the upper catchment (Geest)
• Centralized solutions
• De-centralized solutions
– Retention of water in the lower catchment (Marsch)
• Centralized solutions
• De-centralized solutions
• More space for the water
– In front of the dike
• Deepening of the floodplains
• Regulation with the Barrier
– Behind the dike
• Overflow – polder and water management
• Storage in centralized polders
Adaptation measures
25
Adaptation to Climate Change

26. • Moderator: Prof. Reincke (Hochschule 21 Buxtehude)
• Gemeinden, Städte und Landkreise
• Nds. Landesbetrieb für Wasserwirtschaft, Küsten und Naturschutz (NLWKN), Behörde für Stadtentwicklung und Umwelt
HH (BSU)
• Landwirtschaftskammer Niedersachsen (LWK)
• Wasser- und Schifffahrtsamt Hamburg, Hamburg Port Authority
• Deichverband Altes Land, Unterhaltungsverband Altes Land, Unterhaltungs- und Landschaftspflegeverband Este
• NGOs (BI Este, BUND, Naturschutzbund Deutschland, Angler- und Naturschutzgemeinschaft, …)
• Privatpersonen (Landwirte, Anwohner…)
Learn and Action Alliances: Participants
Adaptation Measures
Stakeholder Involvement

27. Lern- und Action Alliances: Structure
Anschauungs-
beispiel
Lern-Teil
Impulsvortrag
Aktions-Teil
Workshop
LAA 1
Anpassungsmaßnahmen
Einbeziehung der Akteure
Example
Learning
Presentations
Action
Workshops

28. Exkursion Exkursion
Vorstellung
möglicher
Maßnahmen
Impulsvorträge:
Landwirtschaft,
Naturschutz,
Unterhaltungsver-
bände, Finanzier-
ungs- und Förder-
möglichkeiten
Hydraulische
Wirksamkeit,
Maßnahmen-
Priorisierung
Vorläufiger
Maßnahmen-
katalog
Erarbeiten von
konkreten
Maßnahmen-
vorschlägen
Einschätzung der
Maßnahmen
hinsichtlich
ausgewählter
Kriterien
Diskussion der
Priorisierung
sämtlicher
Maßnahmen
Diskussion
vorläufiger
Maßnahmen-
katalog
Gemeinsam
erarbeiteter
Maßnahmen-
katalog
LAA 1 LAAs 2+3 LAA 5 Projektabschlu
ss
KLEE-Partner Alle Teilnehmer
LAA 4
Gastvorträge
Series of Learn- and Action Alliances => Assessment and
Acceptance of Adaptation Measures
Anpassungsmaßnahmen
Einbeziehung der Akteure

29. • Klimzug – Nord
– Organized by the research project / research institutions
– Goals
• Involvement of administrative sector in the research project
• Dissemination of results in the project and the administrative sector
• Discussion of research results with adminstrative sector
• Awareness of the administrative sector
• KLEE
– Inititated by the administrative body / water management board
– Goals
• Involvement of all adminstrative bodies into the development and assessment of measures
• Involvement of public into the development and assessment of measures
• Acceptance of solution
29
Development of LAA over Time and Projects

30. Thank you very much!
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