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IAHR 2015 - Managing flood risk in coastal cities through an integrated modellingframework, C. Makropoulos, 20150630

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Managing flood risk in coastal cities through an integrated modellingframework

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IAHR 2015 - Managing flood risk in coastal cities through an integrated modellingframework, C. Makropoulos, 20150630

  1. 1. Managing flood risk in coastal cities through an integrated modelling framework supporting stakeholders’ involvement: the case of Rethymno, Crete www.iahr2015.info Facebook: IAHR2015 Twitter: @IAHR2015 #IAHR2015NL C. MAKROPOULOS V. TSOUKALA K. BELIBASSAKIS A. LYKOU M. CHONDROS P. GOURGOURA D. NIKOLOPOULOS
  2. 2. Managing flood risk in coastal cities through an integrated modelling framework supporting stakeholders’ involvement: the case of Rethymno, Crete C. Makropoulos, V. Tsoukala, K. Belibassakis, A. Lykou, M. Chondros, P. Gourgoura, D. Nikolopoulos As part of 36th IAHR WORLD CONGRESS 28 June–3 July 2015 Delft & The Hague, the Netherlands Special One-Day Session on Coasts at threat in Europe 30-06-2015 Acknowledgement The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under Grant agreement n°603663 for the research project PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastaL regions). The research and its conclusions reflect only the views of the authors and the European Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained herein. http://www.pearl-fp7.eu/
  3. 3. PEARL project Research & work within PEARL • The aim of PEARL is to develop adaptive risk management strategies for coastal communities against extreme hydro-meteorological events minimising social, economic and environmental impacts & increasing the resilience of Coastal Regions in Europe • Rethymo City in Crete (Greece) is one of the 7 EU coastal case studies • Ultimate goal is the development of an actionable roadmap for flood risk management by enabling stakeholders’ involvement & grasping their perspective needs and ambitions
  4. 4. Rethymno case study Overview Rethymno Population: 32.468 (Census 2011) Density : 140,12 pop./km2 Artificial Surfaces Agricultural areas & Forest and semi natural surfaces Corine land cover 2000 L ≈ 7,5 kM L ≈ 2,0 kM • Region of Crete • 3rd most populous urban area of the island • Commercial, administrative, cultural & touristic activities are being developed along the north coast Mean absolute altitude:15 m
  5. 5. Problem description Erosion & sediment transport Violent wave overtopping • High N-NW winds & Great Fetches • Sea level change • Storm surges 145 km2 • Heavy precipitation • Flash floods • Pluvial floods • Storm water flow through the city • Numerous streams cross it • Transition form steep slopes at the upstream rural area to the flat urban zone Multiple stressors have always posed flood threats causing an on going risk to its residents, homes, business & public infrastructure
  6. 6. Major historic flood events • February 29th, 1968 • February 6th, 1984 Archontakis, 2013 • October 28th, 1991 • November 10th, 1999 (Photos depicting events’ impacts) Mainly related to heavy precipitation, exceedance of rivers’ & drainage systems’ capacity or inability of flow routing due to lack of maintenance
  7. 7. Mitigation measures were selected The flood events led to adverse human, material, economic and environmental effects and eventually to the selection of prevention and mitigation measures: • Arrangement and diversion of streams and torrents • Construction of circular stormwater drainage collectors • Construction of internal-primary drainage network • Construction of flood control dams Nonetheless, Based on recent flood events, there is a growing realisation that focusing exclusively on engineering mitigation measures and treating problems in an ad hoc, isolated fashion is no longer a viable option Archontakis, 2013
  8. 8. Recent Flood Events (1/3) occurred during autumn-winter period • Flash flood (event October 24th, 2014) a collection of articles and videos about flooding in Rethymno available at PEARL’s website: http://www.pearl-fp7.eu/casestudies/greece/ Water entered shops and restaurants in the Old Town of Rethymno, the drainage network inlets had been covered by citizens during summer months in order to avoid odour, no maintenance from Authorities side was clamed by others
  9. 9. Recent Flood Events (2/3) occurred during autumn-winter period a collection of articles and videos about flooding in Rethymno available at PEARL’s website: http://www.pearl-fp7.eu/casestudies/greece/ • Overtopping (event January 1st, 2015 ) • Overtopping (event January 13th, 2015) The windward wave breakwater was damaged once more, debris were transferred all over the surrounding roads, right in front of the coast guard buildings.
  10. 10. Recent Flood Events (3/3) occurred during autumn-winter period a collection of articles and videos about flooding in Rethymno available at PEARL’s website: http://www.pearl-fp7.eu/casestudies/greece/ • Overtopping ( event February 10th, 2015) Same phenomena as the previous events on January, a car was swept away from the surrounding roads and ended up in the Old Venetian Harbour
  11. 11. Damages (1/2) recorded after the recent events a collection of articles and videos about flooding in Rethymno available at PEARL’s website: http://www.pearl-fp7.eu/casestudies/greece/ • Extensive structural damages from the event on January 13th, 2015 (just after they had repaired the windward breakwater from previous ones) Previous damages: photo taken on January 4th, 2014
  12. 12. Damages (2/2) recorded after the recent events a collection of articles and videos about flooding in Rethymno available at PEARL’s website: http://www.pearl-fp7.eu/casestudies/greece/ Extensive structural damages from the event on February 10th, 2015 • To public infrastructures • To local business facilities • To citizens’ property
  13. 13. Rethymno within PEARL understanding flood risk under different hydro-meteorological scenarios Modelling extreme events individually or in coincidence through an integrated modelling framework:  Estimation of atmospheric variables and development of climate change scenarios  Estimation of Wave Characteristics (4-level downscaling approach )  Modelling of nearshore response to hurricane impacts and storms (e.g. storm surges, wave propagation, sediment transport, erosion, wave diffraction and refraction, etc.)  Catchment hydrological modelling (incl. Hydraulic calculations of natural channels networks  Urban flood modelling (incl. surface flow & stormwater network) SWAN MIKE 21 EURTOP MIKE 11, MIKE URBAN, MIKE 21 FM Combination of floods highlight the need for the estimation of hazard due to combined roots and causes
  14. 14. Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 From the coast Classification of storm events (Weak, Moderate, Significant, Severe, Extreme) Hydrodynamic field in shallower regions Wave run up Wave overtopping
  15. 15. • Preprocessing of geospatial data • Modification of DEM (DEM: 2 m, DSM: 0.8m) • Subbasin & river network delineation • Estimation of Stream & Subbasin characteristics • Estimation of hydrological parameters • Derivation of necessary input data for hydrologic/hydraulic simulation 13 River Basins Total area: 145 km2 Total length of river network: 390 km DSM: 0.8m DEM: 2 m Moving inland: data
  16. 16. Setting up coupled hydraulic models for 1D/2D simulation for the urban area (MIKE 11, MIKE 21 FM & later MIKE URBAN) enabling hazard assessment from flooding derived from the sea, rivers, urban, drainage and sewer systems Downstream boundary conditions along the coastline provided by the multi-scale coastal modellling framework Moving inland: Models
  17. 17. Stakeholders involvement creating common images, grasping their needs and ambitions • Flow of information between authorities – Stakeholder’s analysis & Sociogram • Comprehension of their perception of flood risk • Engaging them towards the development of specific & actionable roadmaps – establishment of the Learning & Action Alliances Meeting with Municipal Water Supply & Sewerage Company Meeting with the Municipal Port Authority Meeting with Civil Protection Volunteer Team
  18. 18. Modelling stakeholder actions: ABM approach The agents (local authorities & Stakeholders): • Inspect the existing flood protection measures • Get information regarding the foreseen flood risk and the available funding resources • Get information regarding the assessment of new measures • Interact with the stakeholders • Choose to maintain existing and/or implement new measures of flood protection The ABM includes: • Responsible authorities’ behavioural rules for implementation and maintenance of flood resilience measures based on multi- criteria assessment • Stakeholders’ procedures for defending their interests • Authorities and stakeholders cooperation rules based on iterated N-Prisoner’s Dilemma games • Link with flood risk assessment for assessing the effect of the Rethymno’s authorities’ response to flood risk
  19. 19. Getting stakeholder to act Water Detective app (developed by Hydrologic) Web based front end PEARL’s platform PostgreSQL/PostGIS HR’s WD portal Flood related crowdsourcing citizens’ report Visualisation of geo- referenced information Possible rerouting to responsible authorities and provision of alerts
  20. 20. Rethymno within the PEARL platform an interface between the developed tools and the stakeholders Access to the Knowledge Base for resilience measures, strategies & tools supporting their selection & enabling end users to find solution to flood problems Visualisation of all types of result e.g. flood inundation maps, future urban growth scenarios, social behaviour, flood reports etc. An interactive platform enabling visualisation of the effect of the alternative choices on risk situations by giving access to a library of possible future that will assist future analysis and decision making processes of the local authorities Scenario Manager application per Case A common space for knowledge & lessons learned sharing among all PEAR’s CS & stakeholders
  21. 21. Managing flood risk in coastal cities through an integrated modelling framework supporting stakeholders’ involvement: the case of Rethymno, Crete www.iahr2015.info Facebook: IAHR2015 Twitter: @IAHR2015 #IAHR2015NL C. MAKROPOULOS V. TSOUKALA K. BELIBASSAKIS A. LYKOU M. CHONDROS P. GOURGOURA D. NIKOLOPOULOS

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