SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 31
Download to read offline
Global hydrological modelling to support
worldwide water assessment tools
Contents
• Global hydrological modelling
• Global water resources and water scarcity
• Water assessment tools
• Missing dimensions
Marc F.P. Bierkens
Utrecht University and Deltares
Global hydrological modelling
Model line Time ® 69 ……. 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
WaterGAP Legend WaterGAP WaterGAP 2 WG3
WBM MHM or GHWM WBM WBMPlus
Mac-PDM LSM Mac-PDM … … Mac-PDM.09
WASMOD-M WASMOD-M
H08 DVM H08
``
PCR-GLOBWB LESM PCR-GLOBWB 2.0
Lisflood Lisflood Europe Lisflood Africa Global LF
VIC VIC … …. VIC 4.1 ….
MATSIRO Land model CCSR/NIES MATSIRO (also land model MIROC)
Bucket model Bucket model (Manabe, 1969)
LaD/LM3 LaD LSM3
OSU-LSM/Noah-LSM OSU-LSM Noah-LSM
Noah-MP Noah-MP
BATS BATS BATS2
SiB SiB SiB2 SiB3
ECMWF-LSM/TESSEL ECMWF-LSM TESSEL HTESSEL
EC-EARTH LM EC-EARTH LM
MOSES/JULES UKMO MOSES JULES
CLM CLM … … CLM4 …
ORCHIDEE LMD-LSM SECHIBA ORCHIDEE
LPJ LPJ
LPJml LPJml
LPJ-GUESS LPJ-GUESS
Model line Time® 69 ……. 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Global water models 2015
Global water models 2023
Model line Time ® 69 ……. 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
WaterGAP 3 WaterGAP 3 *
Legend
WaterGAP WaterGAP WaterGAP 2 WaterGAP 2 2d *
MHM or GHWM*
G3M G3Mv1.0
GGM
WBM WBM WBMPlus (WBM_TrANS) *
LSM
Mac-PDM Mac-PDM … … Mac-PDM.09 Mac-PDM.20
DVM
WASMOD-M WASMOD-M
LESM
H08 H08 H08 (enhanced) *
``
PCR-GLOBWB PCR-GLOBWB PCR-GLOBWB 2 *
GLOBGM GLOBGM v1.0*
MPI-HM MPI-HM HydroPy v1.0
Lisflood Lisflood Europe Lisflood Africa Global Lisflood *
mHM mHM (Germany and Europe) Global mHM v5.10
W3 W3
CWatM CWatMv1.04 *
WAYS WAYS v1
World-WideHYPE WWH 1.3
LEAF-Hydro LEAF
VIC VIC … …. VIC 4.1 ….
MATSIRO Land model CCSR/NIES MATSIRO (also land model MIROC) *
MATSIRO-INTEG-LAND MIROC-INTEG-LAND *
Bucket model Bucket model (Manabe, 1969)
LaD/LM3 LaD LM3 LM4
OSU-LSM/Noah-LSM OSU-LSM Noah LSM
Noah-MP Noah-MP … Noah-MP v5.0
BATS BATS BATS2
SiB SiB SiB2 SiB3 SiB4
DBH DBH
ECMWF-LSM/TESSEL ECMWF-LSM TESSEL HTESSEL
EC-EARTH LM EC-EARTH LM
MOSES/JULES UKMO MOSES JULES … JULESvn7.1
CLM CLM … … CLM4 … CLM5
ORCHIDEE LMD-LSM SECHIBA ORCHIDEE … versions ofORCHIDEEwith different functionality
LPJ LPJ
LPJml LPJml … LPJml v5.1
LPJ-GUESS LPJ-GUESS … LPJ-GUESS v4.0
Model line Time® 69 ……. 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
LEAF-Hydro LEAF-Hydro - Global Groundwater Model
Global hydrological models 2015
Global hydrological models 2023
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
WaterGAP 3 *
WaterGAP WaterGAP 2 WaterGAP 2 2d *
G3M v1.0
WBM WBMPlus (WBM_TrANS) *
Mac-PDM … … Mac-PDM.09 Mac-PDM.20
WASMOD-M
H08 H08 (enhanced) *
``
PCR-GLOBWB PCR-GLOBWB 2 *
PCR-GLOBWB-MODFLOW GLOBGMv1.0*
MPI-HM HydroPy v1.0
Lisflood Europe Lisflood Africa Global Lisflood *
mHM (Germany and Europe) Global mHMv5.10
W3
CWatMv1.04 *
WAYS v1
WWH 1.3
LEAF
VIC … …. VIC 4.1 ….
Land model CCSR/NIES MATSIRO (also land model MIROC) *
MIROC-INTEG-LAND *
LEAF-Hydro LEAF-Hydro - Global Groundwater Model
New: Global groundwater models
Fan et al. (2013)
Reinecke et al. (2019)
De Graaf et et al (2017)
Verkaik et al. (2023)
New: Global groundwater models
Usefulness
Limitations
Paths to improvement
How good are global water models?
Beck et al. (2017)
Gnann et al (2023)
Global runoff estimates: 35k – 55k km3
Water Scarcity
A new and improved infographic of the hydrological cycle
Soil saturation 30-150 cm
Soil saturation 0-5 cm
River discharge (m3/s)
Fractional snow cover
Human impacts on the water cycle
Reservoirs Irrigation
Livestock water use
Industrial water use
Domestic water use
Global water withdrawal (Year 2010)
Wada et al., JAMES (2016)
Irrigation: 2800 km3
Livestock: 20 km3
Industrial: 950 km3
Domestic: 450 km3
Total withdrawal: 4220 km3
Total consumptive use: 1900
km3
Return flows: 2320 km3
Increase in water withdrawal 1900-2010
Bron: Wada et al., HESS, 2011
More than doubled since the 1960s!
Wada et al., JAMES (2016)
Water scarcity index: Water demand/water availability
Incompatibility of demand and availability Leads to water scarcity
WSI=
Withdrawal
Discharge
WSI=
Demand
Discharge
WSI=
Demand
Discharge−EFR
WSI=
Demand − 𝑁𝑅𝐺𝑊
Discharge
WSI=
Demand
Discharge + 𝑁𝑅𝐺𝑊
Types of water scarcity
Chronic water scarcity: mostly in arid and semi-arid regions where
people live (e.g. Middle east and North Africa)
Seasonal water scarcity: in areas with seasonal rainfall and cropping
over the dry season (e.g. India, California)
Occasional (inflammatory) water scarcity: in all populated regions under
drought (e.g. Netherlands)
Global water assessment tools
Global water assessment tools
WRI Aqueduct
• Water Risk Atlas
• Country rankings
• Floods
• Food
WWF Water risk filter
NGS World Water Map
Global Water Watch
Global modelling for Water Risk Atlas and World Water Map
FAO, WorldBank,
USGS, Döll group:
Land cover, pop., GDP,
energy demand etc
(1960-2019)
CMIP6 GCMs
Integrated Assessment models
(e.g. IMAGE)
SSPs and RCPs
CRU, GPCP
Emissions
Land cover
SSP 1, 3, 5 Land cover, pop.,
GDP, energy demand etc
(2015-2100)
ERA5 reanalysis
SSP 1, 3, 5
Sectoral Water demand
(2015-2100)
PCR-GLOBWB
PCR-GLOBWB
Global
MODFLOW
Hydrology and water
use 1979-2019
Sectoral Water demand
(1979-2019)
Hydrology and water
use 2020-2100
WRI Aqueduct
Water Risk Atlas
NGS
World Water Map
CMIP6 and Meteo ISI-MIP Utrecht University
W5F5 1979-2019
5 CMIP6 GCMs
Bias correction
1979-2014
RCP 2.6, 7.0, 8.5
5 GCM runs per RCP
Bias correction
1979-2019
Water Risk Atlas
Water Risk Atlas
Public: application
• International companies: good governance,
supply chains, risk accounting
• Investors: risk profiles
• NGOs: hazard assessments
𝑊𝐺 = ෍
𝑖
(𝐷𝑖 − 𝑄𝑖)+
World Water Map
World Water Map
Hotspots: deep dives and story telling
Public: application
• General public: public outreach, teaching ->
water literacy
• (Data) journalists: underlying data sets
• Policy makers: country profiles, trends
Missing dimensions
Groundwater Water quality Externalities
Sources of crop water use
Wada et al. (WRR. 2011)
~50% of irrigation water is groundwater;
> 20% of global groundwater consumption for irrigation from non-renewable groundwater use
Groundwater
Global groundwater depletion estimates
Wada et al (2010)
Döll et al (2014)
Rodell et al (2018)
De Graaf et et al (2019)
Water scarcity is aggravated by the wrong water quality
Van Vliet et al. Nature Geosci 10, 800–802 (2017); Van Vliet et al. Environ. Res. Lett. 16 024020 (2021)
Global water quality modelling
PhD Edward Jones
Projected change in BOD
• Five GCMs
• Three SSP-RCP combinations
Global WQ model DYNQUAL
Water quality: coastal groundwater resources under pressure
Sea-level rise impact on coastal groundwater salinization
Zamrsky et al. (in press)
Percentage change in coastal fresh groundwater volume due to sea-level rise under RCP8.5
Water quality: offshore groundwater reserves
Offshore fresh groundwater resources in unconsolidated sediments
Zamrsky et al. (ERL, 2021)
Externalities: unaccounted impacts
Economic depletion
Perrone and Jasechko 2017
Trade flows and food prices
Dalin et al. (2017)
Land subsidence
Floods and
infrastructure damage
Impacts on ecosystems
De Graaf et al. (2019)
Thank you!
www.globalhydrology.nl
: m.f.p.bierkens@uu.nl
: @waterbier
GEOWAT

More Related Content

Similar to DSD-INT 2023 Global hydrological modelling to support worldwide water assessment tools - Bierkens

Integrated water resource management (IWRM)
Integrated water resource management (IWRM)Integrated water resource management (IWRM)
Integrated water resource management (IWRM)
Business Innovation Research Development
 
DSD-INT 2014 - Symposium Next Generation Hydro Software (NGHS) - How to set u...
DSD-INT 2014 - Symposium Next Generation Hydro Software (NGHS) - How to set u...DSD-INT 2014 - Symposium Next Generation Hydro Software (NGHS) - How to set u...
DSD-INT 2014 - Symposium Next Generation Hydro Software (NGHS) - How to set u...
Deltares
 
UiOlunchSeminar
UiOlunchSeminarUiOlunchSeminar
UiOlunchSeminar
Hong Li
 
ICLR Friday Forum: Floodplain mapping over Canada: performance at inundation...
ICLR Friday Forum:  Floodplain mapping over Canada: performance at inundation...ICLR Friday Forum:  Floodplain mapping over Canada: performance at inundation...
ICLR Friday Forum: Floodplain mapping over Canada: performance at inundation...
glennmcgillivray
 

Similar to DSD-INT 2023 Global hydrological modelling to support worldwide water assessment tools - Bierkens (20)

DSD-Kampala 2023 Climate uncertainty in the Nile Basin - Zaroug
DSD-Kampala 2023 Climate uncertainty in the Nile Basin - ZarougDSD-Kampala 2023 Climate uncertainty in the Nile Basin - Zaroug
DSD-Kampala 2023 Climate uncertainty in the Nile Basin - Zaroug
 
DSD-INT 2019 Regional groundwater and geological voxel models for the Cauca V...
DSD-INT 2019 Regional groundwater and geological voxel models for the Cauca V...DSD-INT 2019 Regional groundwater and geological voxel models for the Cauca V...
DSD-INT 2019 Regional groundwater and geological voxel models for the Cauca V...
 
Integrated Modelling as a Tool for Assessing Groundwater Sustainability under...
Integrated Modelling as a Tool for Assessing Groundwater Sustainability under...Integrated Modelling as a Tool for Assessing Groundwater Sustainability under...
Integrated Modelling as a Tool for Assessing Groundwater Sustainability under...
 
Mapping and modeling affected areas by environment and climate stresses: Egyp...
Mapping and modeling affected areas by environment and climate stresses: Egyp...Mapping and modeling affected areas by environment and climate stresses: Egyp...
Mapping and modeling affected areas by environment and climate stresses: Egyp...
 
Day 2 UN-ESCWA Alignment with the 10-Year Strategic Plan of UNCCD: Climate Ch...
Day 2 UN-ESCWA Alignment with the 10-Year Strategic Plan of UNCCD: Climate Ch...Day 2 UN-ESCWA Alignment with the 10-Year Strategic Plan of UNCCD: Climate Ch...
Day 2 UN-ESCWA Alignment with the 10-Year Strategic Plan of UNCCD: Climate Ch...
 
DSD-INT 2023 Coupling RIBASIM to a MODFLOW groundwater model - Bootsma
DSD-INT 2023 Coupling RIBASIM to a MODFLOW groundwater model - BootsmaDSD-INT 2023 Coupling RIBASIM to a MODFLOW groundwater model - Bootsma
DSD-INT 2023 Coupling RIBASIM to a MODFLOW groundwater model - Bootsma
 
DSD-Kampala 2023 Modelling the impacts of rising Lake Victoria water levels o...
DSD-Kampala 2023 Modelling the impacts of rising Lake Victoria water levels o...DSD-Kampala 2023 Modelling the impacts of rising Lake Victoria water levels o...
DSD-Kampala 2023 Modelling the impacts of rising Lake Victoria water levels o...
 
Integrated water resource management (iwrm)
Integrated water resource management (iwrm)Integrated water resource management (iwrm)
Integrated water resource management (iwrm)
 
Integrated Water Resource Management (Iwrm)
Integrated Water Resource Management (Iwrm)Integrated Water Resource Management (Iwrm)
Integrated Water Resource Management (Iwrm)
 
Integrated water resource management (IWRM)
Integrated water resource management (IWRM)Integrated water resource management (IWRM)
Integrated water resource management (IWRM)
 
DSD-INT 2022 Keynote - Delft3D research & modelling activities - Meselhe
DSD-INT 2022 Keynote - Delft3D research & modelling activities - MeselheDSD-INT 2022 Keynote - Delft3D research & modelling activities - Meselhe
DSD-INT 2022 Keynote - Delft3D research & modelling activities - Meselhe
 
Presentation_BWT_2013.pdf
Presentation_BWT_2013.pdfPresentation_BWT_2013.pdf
Presentation_BWT_2013.pdf
 
DSD-SEA 2023 Global to local multi-hazard forecasting - Yan
DSD-SEA 2023 Global to local multi-hazard forecasting - YanDSD-SEA 2023 Global to local multi-hazard forecasting - Yan
DSD-SEA 2023 Global to local multi-hazard forecasting - Yan
 
DSD-INT 2014 - Symposium Next Generation Hydro Software (NGHS) - How to set u...
DSD-INT 2014 - Symposium Next Generation Hydro Software (NGHS) - How to set u...DSD-INT 2014 - Symposium Next Generation Hydro Software (NGHS) - How to set u...
DSD-INT 2014 - Symposium Next Generation Hydro Software (NGHS) - How to set u...
 
UiOlunchSeminar
UiOlunchSeminarUiOlunchSeminar
UiOlunchSeminar
 
UiONote
UiONoteUiONote
UiONote
 
Use of UAV for Hydrological Monitoring
Use of UAV for Hydrological MonitoringUse of UAV for Hydrological Monitoring
Use of UAV for Hydrological Monitoring
 
ICLR Friday Forum: Floodplain mapping over Canada: performance at inundation...
ICLR Friday Forum:  Floodplain mapping over Canada: performance at inundation...ICLR Friday Forum:  Floodplain mapping over Canada: performance at inundation...
ICLR Friday Forum: Floodplain mapping over Canada: performance at inundation...
 
Day 1 neno kukuric igrac - methodology
Day 1 neno kukuric   igrac - methodologyDay 1 neno kukuric   igrac - methodology
Day 1 neno kukuric igrac - methodology
 
July 29-330-Mike Kucera
July 29-330-Mike KuceraJuly 29-330-Mike Kucera
July 29-330-Mike Kucera
 

More from Deltares

More from Deltares (20)

DSD-INT 2023 Hydrology User Days - Intro - Day 3 - Kroon
DSD-INT 2023 Hydrology User Days - Intro - Day 3 - KroonDSD-INT 2023 Hydrology User Days - Intro - Day 3 - Kroon
DSD-INT 2023 Hydrology User Days - Intro - Day 3 - Kroon
 
DSD-INT 2023 Demo EPIC Response Assessment Methodology (ERAM) - Couvin Rodriguez
DSD-INT 2023 Demo EPIC Response Assessment Methodology (ERAM) - Couvin RodriguezDSD-INT 2023 Demo EPIC Response Assessment Methodology (ERAM) - Couvin Rodriguez
DSD-INT 2023 Demo EPIC Response Assessment Methodology (ERAM) - Couvin Rodriguez
 
DSD-INT 2023 Demo Climate Stress Testing Tool (CST Tool) - Taner
DSD-INT 2023 Demo Climate Stress Testing Tool (CST Tool) - TanerDSD-INT 2023 Demo Climate Stress Testing Tool (CST Tool) - Taner
DSD-INT 2023 Demo Climate Stress Testing Tool (CST Tool) - Taner
 
DSD-INT 2023 Demo Climate Resilient Cities Tool (CRC Tool) - Rooze
DSD-INT 2023 Demo Climate Resilient Cities Tool (CRC Tool) - RoozeDSD-INT 2023 Demo Climate Resilient Cities Tool (CRC Tool) - Rooze
DSD-INT 2023 Demo Climate Resilient Cities Tool (CRC Tool) - Rooze
 
DSD-INT 2023 Approaches for assessing multi-hazard risk - Ward
DSD-INT 2023 Approaches for assessing multi-hazard risk - WardDSD-INT 2023 Approaches for assessing multi-hazard risk - Ward
DSD-INT 2023 Approaches for assessing multi-hazard risk - Ward
 
DSD-INT 2023 Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) - Theory & Showcase - Wa...
DSD-INT 2023 Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) - Theory & Showcase - Wa...DSD-INT 2023 Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) - Theory & Showcase - Wa...
DSD-INT 2023 Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) - Theory & Showcase - Wa...
 
DSD-INT 2023 Modelling implications - IPCC Working Group II - From AR6 to AR7...
DSD-INT 2023 Modelling implications - IPCC Working Group II - From AR6 to AR7...DSD-INT 2023 Modelling implications - IPCC Working Group II - From AR6 to AR7...
DSD-INT 2023 Modelling implications - IPCC Working Group II - From AR6 to AR7...
 
DSD-INT 2023 Knowledge and tools for Climate Adaptation - Jeuken
DSD-INT 2023 Knowledge and tools for Climate Adaptation - JeukenDSD-INT 2023 Knowledge and tools for Climate Adaptation - Jeuken
DSD-INT 2023 Knowledge and tools for Climate Adaptation - Jeuken
 
DSD-INT 2023 Create your own MODFLOW 6 sub-variant - Muller
DSD-INT 2023 Create your own MODFLOW 6 sub-variant - MullerDSD-INT 2023 Create your own MODFLOW 6 sub-variant - Muller
DSD-INT 2023 Create your own MODFLOW 6 sub-variant - Muller
 
DSD-INT 2023 Example of unstructured MODFLOW 6 modelling in California - Romero
DSD-INT 2023 Example of unstructured MODFLOW 6 modelling in California - RomeroDSD-INT 2023 Example of unstructured MODFLOW 6 modelling in California - Romero
DSD-INT 2023 Example of unstructured MODFLOW 6 modelling in California - Romero
 
DSD-INT 2023 Challenges and developments in groundwater modeling - Bakker
DSD-INT 2023 Challenges and developments in groundwater modeling - BakkerDSD-INT 2023 Challenges and developments in groundwater modeling - Bakker
DSD-INT 2023 Challenges and developments in groundwater modeling - Bakker
 
DSD-INT 2023 Demo new features iMOD Suite - van Engelen
DSD-INT 2023 Demo new features iMOD Suite - van EngelenDSD-INT 2023 Demo new features iMOD Suite - van Engelen
DSD-INT 2023 Demo new features iMOD Suite - van Engelen
 
DSD-INT 2023 iMOD and new developments - Davids
DSD-INT 2023 iMOD and new developments - DavidsDSD-INT 2023 iMOD and new developments - Davids
DSD-INT 2023 iMOD and new developments - Davids
 
DSD-INT 2023 Recent MODFLOW Developments - Langevin
DSD-INT 2023 Recent MODFLOW Developments - LangevinDSD-INT 2023 Recent MODFLOW Developments - Langevin
DSD-INT 2023 Recent MODFLOW Developments - Langevin
 
DSD-INT 2023 Hydrology User Days - Presentations - Day 2
DSD-INT 2023 Hydrology User Days - Presentations - Day 2DSD-INT 2023 Hydrology User Days - Presentations - Day 2
DSD-INT 2023 Hydrology User Days - Presentations - Day 2
 
DSD-INT 2023 Needs related to user interfaces - Snippen
DSD-INT 2023 Needs related to user interfaces - SnippenDSD-INT 2023 Needs related to user interfaces - Snippen
DSD-INT 2023 Needs related to user interfaces - Snippen
 
DSD-INT 2023 Parameterization of a RIBASIM model and the network lumping appr...
DSD-INT 2023 Parameterization of a RIBASIM model and the network lumping appr...DSD-INT 2023 Parameterization of a RIBASIM model and the network lumping appr...
DSD-INT 2023 Parameterization of a RIBASIM model and the network lumping appr...
 
DSD-INT 2023 Parameterization of RIBASIM and flexibility in the lumped approa...
DSD-INT 2023 Parameterization of RIBASIM and flexibility in the lumped approa...DSD-INT 2023 Parameterization of RIBASIM and flexibility in the lumped approa...
DSD-INT 2023 Parameterization of RIBASIM and flexibility in the lumped approa...
 
DSD-INT 2023 Introduction new developments RIBASIM - Snippen
DSD-INT 2023 Introduction new developments RIBASIM - SnippenDSD-INT 2023 Introduction new developments RIBASIM - Snippen
DSD-INT 2023 Introduction new developments RIBASIM - Snippen
 
DSD-INT 2023 Low river discharge in the Meuse - a catchment-wide water balanc...
DSD-INT 2023 Low river discharge in the Meuse - a catchment-wide water balanc...DSD-INT 2023 Low river discharge in the Meuse - a catchment-wide water balanc...
DSD-INT 2023 Low river discharge in the Meuse - a catchment-wide water balanc...
 

Recently uploaded

Abortion Pill Prices Tembisa [(+27832195400*)] 🏥 Women's Abortion Clinic in T...
Abortion Pill Prices Tembisa [(+27832195400*)] 🏥 Women's Abortion Clinic in T...Abortion Pill Prices Tembisa [(+27832195400*)] 🏥 Women's Abortion Clinic in T...
Abortion Pill Prices Tembisa [(+27832195400*)] 🏥 Women's Abortion Clinic in T...
Medical / Health Care (+971588192166) Mifepristone and Misoprostol tablets 200mg
 
Large-scale Logging Made Easy: Meetup at Deutsche Bank 2024
Large-scale Logging Made Easy: Meetup at Deutsche Bank 2024Large-scale Logging Made Easy: Meetup at Deutsche Bank 2024
Large-scale Logging Made Easy: Meetup at Deutsche Bank 2024
VictoriaMetrics
 

Recently uploaded (20)

WSO2CON 2024 - How to Run a Security Program
WSO2CON 2024 - How to Run a Security ProgramWSO2CON 2024 - How to Run a Security Program
WSO2CON 2024 - How to Run a Security Program
 
WSO2Con2024 - Navigating the Digital Landscape: Transforming Healthcare with ...
WSO2Con2024 - Navigating the Digital Landscape: Transforming Healthcare with ...WSO2Con2024 - Navigating the Digital Landscape: Transforming Healthcare with ...
WSO2Con2024 - Navigating the Digital Landscape: Transforming Healthcare with ...
 
WSO2CON2024 - Why Should You Consider Ballerina for Your Next Integration
WSO2CON2024 - Why Should You Consider Ballerina for Your Next IntegrationWSO2CON2024 - Why Should You Consider Ballerina for Your Next Integration
WSO2CON2024 - Why Should You Consider Ballerina for Your Next Integration
 
Abortion Pill Prices Tembisa [(+27832195400*)] 🏥 Women's Abortion Clinic in T...
Abortion Pill Prices Tembisa [(+27832195400*)] 🏥 Women's Abortion Clinic in T...Abortion Pill Prices Tembisa [(+27832195400*)] 🏥 Women's Abortion Clinic in T...
Abortion Pill Prices Tembisa [(+27832195400*)] 🏥 Women's Abortion Clinic in T...
 
WSO2Con2024 - Organization Management: The Revolution in B2B CIAM
WSO2Con2024 - Organization Management: The Revolution in B2B CIAMWSO2Con2024 - Organization Management: The Revolution in B2B CIAM
WSO2Con2024 - Organization Management: The Revolution in B2B CIAM
 
[GeeCON2024] How I learned to stop worrying and love the dark silicon apocalypse
[GeeCON2024] How I learned to stop worrying and love the dark silicon apocalypse[GeeCON2024] How I learned to stop worrying and love the dark silicon apocalypse
[GeeCON2024] How I learned to stop worrying and love the dark silicon apocalypse
 
What Goes Wrong with Language Definitions and How to Improve the Situation
What Goes Wrong with Language Definitions and How to Improve the SituationWhat Goes Wrong with Language Definitions and How to Improve the Situation
What Goes Wrong with Language Definitions and How to Improve the Situation
 
WSO2Con2024 - Hello Choreo Presentation - Kanchana
WSO2Con2024 - Hello Choreo Presentation - KanchanaWSO2Con2024 - Hello Choreo Presentation - Kanchana
WSO2Con2024 - Hello Choreo Presentation - Kanchana
 
WSO2Con2024 - Simplified Integration: Unveiling the Latest Features in WSO2 L...
WSO2Con2024 - Simplified Integration: Unveiling the Latest Features in WSO2 L...WSO2Con2024 - Simplified Integration: Unveiling the Latest Features in WSO2 L...
WSO2Con2024 - Simplified Integration: Unveiling the Latest Features in WSO2 L...
 
Large-scale Logging Made Easy: Meetup at Deutsche Bank 2024
Large-scale Logging Made Easy: Meetup at Deutsche Bank 2024Large-scale Logging Made Easy: Meetup at Deutsche Bank 2024
Large-scale Logging Made Easy: Meetup at Deutsche Bank 2024
 
Driving Innovation: Scania's API Revolution with WSO2
Driving Innovation: Scania's API Revolution with WSO2Driving Innovation: Scania's API Revolution with WSO2
Driving Innovation: Scania's API Revolution with WSO2
 
WSO2CON 2024 - Designing Event-Driven Enterprises: Stories of Transformation
WSO2CON 2024 - Designing Event-Driven Enterprises: Stories of TransformationWSO2CON 2024 - Designing Event-Driven Enterprises: Stories of Transformation
WSO2CON 2024 - Designing Event-Driven Enterprises: Stories of Transformation
 
WSO2Con2024 - Low-Code Integration Tooling
WSO2Con2024 - Low-Code Integration ToolingWSO2Con2024 - Low-Code Integration Tooling
WSO2Con2024 - Low-Code Integration Tooling
 
Novo Nordisk: When Knowledge Graphs meet LLMs
Novo Nordisk: When Knowledge Graphs meet LLMsNovo Nordisk: When Knowledge Graphs meet LLMs
Novo Nordisk: When Knowledge Graphs meet LLMs
 
WSO2CON 2024 - API Management Usage at La Poste and Its Impact on Business an...
WSO2CON 2024 - API Management Usage at La Poste and Its Impact on Business an...WSO2CON 2024 - API Management Usage at La Poste and Its Impact on Business an...
WSO2CON 2024 - API Management Usage at La Poste and Its Impact on Business an...
 
Artyushina_Guest lecture_YorkU CS May 2024.pptx
Artyushina_Guest lecture_YorkU CS May 2024.pptxArtyushina_Guest lecture_YorkU CS May 2024.pptx
Artyushina_Guest lecture_YorkU CS May 2024.pptx
 
WSO2CON 2024 - WSO2's Digital Transformation Journey with Choreo: A Platforml...
WSO2CON 2024 - WSO2's Digital Transformation Journey with Choreo: A Platforml...WSO2CON 2024 - WSO2's Digital Transformation Journey with Choreo: A Platforml...
WSO2CON 2024 - WSO2's Digital Transformation Journey with Choreo: A Platforml...
 
WSO2Con2024 - GitOps in Action: Navigating Application Deployment in the Plat...
WSO2Con2024 - GitOps in Action: Navigating Application Deployment in the Plat...WSO2Con2024 - GitOps in Action: Navigating Application Deployment in the Plat...
WSO2Con2024 - GitOps in Action: Navigating Application Deployment in the Plat...
 
WSO2CON 2024 - Freedom First—Unleashing Developer Potential with Open Source
WSO2CON 2024 - Freedom First—Unleashing Developer Potential with Open SourceWSO2CON 2024 - Freedom First—Unleashing Developer Potential with Open Source
WSO2CON 2024 - Freedom First—Unleashing Developer Potential with Open Source
 
WSO2CON 2024 - OSU & WSO2: A Decade Journey in Integration & Innovation
WSO2CON 2024 - OSU & WSO2: A Decade Journey in Integration & InnovationWSO2CON 2024 - OSU & WSO2: A Decade Journey in Integration & Innovation
WSO2CON 2024 - OSU & WSO2: A Decade Journey in Integration & Innovation
 

DSD-INT 2023 Global hydrological modelling to support worldwide water assessment tools - Bierkens

  • 1. Global hydrological modelling to support worldwide water assessment tools Contents • Global hydrological modelling • Global water resources and water scarcity • Water assessment tools • Missing dimensions Marc F.P. Bierkens Utrecht University and Deltares
  • 3. Model line Time ® 69 ……. 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 WaterGAP Legend WaterGAP WaterGAP 2 WG3 WBM MHM or GHWM WBM WBMPlus Mac-PDM LSM Mac-PDM … … Mac-PDM.09 WASMOD-M WASMOD-M H08 DVM H08 `` PCR-GLOBWB LESM PCR-GLOBWB 2.0 Lisflood Lisflood Europe Lisflood Africa Global LF VIC VIC … …. VIC 4.1 …. MATSIRO Land model CCSR/NIES MATSIRO (also land model MIROC) Bucket model Bucket model (Manabe, 1969) LaD/LM3 LaD LSM3 OSU-LSM/Noah-LSM OSU-LSM Noah-LSM Noah-MP Noah-MP BATS BATS BATS2 SiB SiB SiB2 SiB3 ECMWF-LSM/TESSEL ECMWF-LSM TESSEL HTESSEL EC-EARTH LM EC-EARTH LM MOSES/JULES UKMO MOSES JULES CLM CLM … … CLM4 … ORCHIDEE LMD-LSM SECHIBA ORCHIDEE LPJ LPJ LPJml LPJml LPJ-GUESS LPJ-GUESS Model line Time® 69 ……. 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Global water models 2015
  • 4. Global water models 2023 Model line Time ® 69 ……. 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 WaterGAP 3 WaterGAP 3 * Legend WaterGAP WaterGAP WaterGAP 2 WaterGAP 2 2d * MHM or GHWM* G3M G3Mv1.0 GGM WBM WBM WBMPlus (WBM_TrANS) * LSM Mac-PDM Mac-PDM … … Mac-PDM.09 Mac-PDM.20 DVM WASMOD-M WASMOD-M LESM H08 H08 H08 (enhanced) * `` PCR-GLOBWB PCR-GLOBWB PCR-GLOBWB 2 * GLOBGM GLOBGM v1.0* MPI-HM MPI-HM HydroPy v1.0 Lisflood Lisflood Europe Lisflood Africa Global Lisflood * mHM mHM (Germany and Europe) Global mHM v5.10 W3 W3 CWatM CWatMv1.04 * WAYS WAYS v1 World-WideHYPE WWH 1.3 LEAF-Hydro LEAF VIC VIC … …. VIC 4.1 …. MATSIRO Land model CCSR/NIES MATSIRO (also land model MIROC) * MATSIRO-INTEG-LAND MIROC-INTEG-LAND * Bucket model Bucket model (Manabe, 1969) LaD/LM3 LaD LM3 LM4 OSU-LSM/Noah-LSM OSU-LSM Noah LSM Noah-MP Noah-MP … Noah-MP v5.0 BATS BATS BATS2 SiB SiB SiB2 SiB3 SiB4 DBH DBH ECMWF-LSM/TESSEL ECMWF-LSM TESSEL HTESSEL EC-EARTH LM EC-EARTH LM MOSES/JULES UKMO MOSES JULES … JULESvn7.1 CLM CLM … … CLM4 … CLM5 ORCHIDEE LMD-LSM SECHIBA ORCHIDEE … versions ofORCHIDEEwith different functionality LPJ LPJ LPJml LPJml … LPJml v5.1 LPJ-GUESS LPJ-GUESS … LPJ-GUESS v4.0 Model line Time® 69 ……. 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 LEAF-Hydro LEAF-Hydro - Global Groundwater Model
  • 5. Global hydrological models 2015 Global hydrological models 2023 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 WaterGAP 3 * WaterGAP WaterGAP 2 WaterGAP 2 2d * G3M v1.0 WBM WBMPlus (WBM_TrANS) * Mac-PDM … … Mac-PDM.09 Mac-PDM.20 WASMOD-M H08 H08 (enhanced) * `` PCR-GLOBWB PCR-GLOBWB 2 * PCR-GLOBWB-MODFLOW GLOBGMv1.0* MPI-HM HydroPy v1.0 Lisflood Europe Lisflood Africa Global Lisflood * mHM (Germany and Europe) Global mHMv5.10 W3 CWatMv1.04 * WAYS v1 WWH 1.3 LEAF VIC … …. VIC 4.1 …. Land model CCSR/NIES MATSIRO (also land model MIROC) * MIROC-INTEG-LAND * LEAF-Hydro LEAF-Hydro - Global Groundwater Model
  • 6. New: Global groundwater models Fan et al. (2013) Reinecke et al. (2019) De Graaf et et al (2017) Verkaik et al. (2023)
  • 7. New: Global groundwater models Usefulness Limitations Paths to improvement
  • 8. How good are global water models? Beck et al. (2017) Gnann et al (2023) Global runoff estimates: 35k – 55k km3
  • 10. A new and improved infographic of the hydrological cycle Soil saturation 30-150 cm Soil saturation 0-5 cm River discharge (m3/s) Fractional snow cover
  • 11. Human impacts on the water cycle Reservoirs Irrigation Livestock water use Industrial water use Domestic water use
  • 12. Global water withdrawal (Year 2010) Wada et al., JAMES (2016) Irrigation: 2800 km3 Livestock: 20 km3 Industrial: 950 km3 Domestic: 450 km3 Total withdrawal: 4220 km3 Total consumptive use: 1900 km3 Return flows: 2320 km3
  • 13. Increase in water withdrawal 1900-2010 Bron: Wada et al., HESS, 2011 More than doubled since the 1960s! Wada et al., JAMES (2016)
  • 14. Water scarcity index: Water demand/water availability Incompatibility of demand and availability Leads to water scarcity WSI= Withdrawal Discharge WSI= Demand Discharge WSI= Demand Discharge−EFR WSI= Demand − 𝑁𝑅𝐺𝑊 Discharge WSI= Demand Discharge + 𝑁𝑅𝐺𝑊
  • 15. Types of water scarcity Chronic water scarcity: mostly in arid and semi-arid regions where people live (e.g. Middle east and North Africa) Seasonal water scarcity: in areas with seasonal rainfall and cropping over the dry season (e.g. India, California) Occasional (inflammatory) water scarcity: in all populated regions under drought (e.g. Netherlands)
  • 17. Global water assessment tools WRI Aqueduct • Water Risk Atlas • Country rankings • Floods • Food WWF Water risk filter NGS World Water Map Global Water Watch
  • 18. Global modelling for Water Risk Atlas and World Water Map FAO, WorldBank, USGS, Döll group: Land cover, pop., GDP, energy demand etc (1960-2019) CMIP6 GCMs Integrated Assessment models (e.g. IMAGE) SSPs and RCPs CRU, GPCP Emissions Land cover SSP 1, 3, 5 Land cover, pop., GDP, energy demand etc (2015-2100) ERA5 reanalysis SSP 1, 3, 5 Sectoral Water demand (2015-2100) PCR-GLOBWB PCR-GLOBWB Global MODFLOW Hydrology and water use 1979-2019 Sectoral Water demand (1979-2019) Hydrology and water use 2020-2100 WRI Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas NGS World Water Map CMIP6 and Meteo ISI-MIP Utrecht University W5F5 1979-2019 5 CMIP6 GCMs Bias correction 1979-2014 RCP 2.6, 7.0, 8.5 5 GCM runs per RCP Bias correction 1979-2019
  • 20. Water Risk Atlas Public: application • International companies: good governance, supply chains, risk accounting • Investors: risk profiles • NGOs: hazard assessments
  • 21. 𝑊𝐺 = ෍ 𝑖 (𝐷𝑖 − 𝑄𝑖)+ World Water Map
  • 22. World Water Map Hotspots: deep dives and story telling Public: application • General public: public outreach, teaching -> water literacy • (Data) journalists: underlying data sets • Policy makers: country profiles, trends
  • 23. Missing dimensions Groundwater Water quality Externalities
  • 24. Sources of crop water use Wada et al. (WRR. 2011) ~50% of irrigation water is groundwater; > 20% of global groundwater consumption for irrigation from non-renewable groundwater use Groundwater
  • 25. Global groundwater depletion estimates Wada et al (2010) Döll et al (2014) Rodell et al (2018) De Graaf et et al (2019)
  • 26. Water scarcity is aggravated by the wrong water quality Van Vliet et al. Nature Geosci 10, 800–802 (2017); Van Vliet et al. Environ. Res. Lett. 16 024020 (2021)
  • 27. Global water quality modelling PhD Edward Jones Projected change in BOD • Five GCMs • Three SSP-RCP combinations Global WQ model DYNQUAL
  • 28. Water quality: coastal groundwater resources under pressure Sea-level rise impact on coastal groundwater salinization Zamrsky et al. (in press) Percentage change in coastal fresh groundwater volume due to sea-level rise under RCP8.5
  • 29. Water quality: offshore groundwater reserves Offshore fresh groundwater resources in unconsolidated sediments Zamrsky et al. (ERL, 2021)
  • 30. Externalities: unaccounted impacts Economic depletion Perrone and Jasechko 2017 Trade flows and food prices Dalin et al. (2017) Land subsidence Floods and infrastructure damage Impacts on ecosystems De Graaf et al. (2019)