Presentation by Marc Bierkens (Utrecht University and Deltares, Netherlands) at the Climate Adaptation Symposium 2023, during the Delft Software Days - Edition 2023 (DSD-INT 2023). Wednesday, 29 November 2023, Delft.

1. Global hydrological modelling to support
worldwide water assessment tools
Contents
• Global hydrological modelling
• Global water resources and water scarcity
• Water assessment tools
• Missing dimensions
Marc F.P. Bierkens
Utrecht University and Deltares

2. Global hydrological modelling

3. Model line Time ® 69 ……. 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
WaterGAP Legend WaterGAP WaterGAP 2 WG3
WBM MHM or GHWM WBM WBMPlus
Mac-PDM LSM Mac-PDM … … Mac-PDM.09
WASMOD-M WASMOD-M
H08 DVM H08
``
PCR-GLOBWB LESM PCR-GLOBWB 2.0
Lisflood Lisflood Europe Lisflood Africa Global LF
VIC VIC … …. VIC 4.1 ….
MATSIRO Land model CCSR/NIES MATSIRO (also land model MIROC)
Bucket model Bucket model (Manabe, 1969)
LaD/LM3 LaD LSM3
OSU-LSM/Noah-LSM OSU-LSM Noah-LSM
Noah-MP Noah-MP
BATS BATS BATS2
SiB SiB SiB2 SiB3
ECMWF-LSM/TESSEL ECMWF-LSM TESSEL HTESSEL
EC-EARTH LM EC-EARTH LM
MOSES/JULES UKMO MOSES JULES
CLM CLM … … CLM4 …
ORCHIDEE LMD-LSM SECHIBA ORCHIDEE
LPJ LPJ
LPJml LPJml
LPJ-GUESS LPJ-GUESS
Model line Time® 69 ……. 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Global water models 2015

4. Global water models 2023
Model line Time ® 69 ……. 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
WaterGAP 3 WaterGAP 3 *
Legend
WaterGAP WaterGAP WaterGAP 2 WaterGAP 2 2d *
MHM or GHWM*
G3M G3Mv1.0
GGM
WBM WBM WBMPlus (WBM_TrANS) *
LSM
Mac-PDM Mac-PDM … … Mac-PDM.09 Mac-PDM.20
DVM
WASMOD-M WASMOD-M
LESM
H08 H08 H08 (enhanced) *
``
PCR-GLOBWB PCR-GLOBWB PCR-GLOBWB 2 *
GLOBGM GLOBGM v1.0*
MPI-HM MPI-HM HydroPy v1.0
Lisflood Lisflood Europe Lisflood Africa Global Lisflood *
mHM mHM (Germany and Europe) Global mHM v5.10
W3 W3
CWatM CWatMv1.04 *
WAYS WAYS v1
World-WideHYPE WWH 1.3
LEAF-Hydro LEAF
VIC VIC … …. VIC 4.1 ….
MATSIRO Land model CCSR/NIES MATSIRO (also land model MIROC) *
MATSIRO-INTEG-LAND MIROC-INTEG-LAND *
Bucket model Bucket model (Manabe, 1969)
LaD/LM3 LaD LM3 LM4
OSU-LSM/Noah-LSM OSU-LSM Noah LSM
Noah-MP Noah-MP … Noah-MP v5.0
BATS BATS BATS2
SiB SiB SiB2 SiB3 SiB4
DBH DBH
ECMWF-LSM/TESSEL ECMWF-LSM TESSEL HTESSEL
EC-EARTH LM EC-EARTH LM
MOSES/JULES UKMO MOSES JULES … JULESvn7.1
CLM CLM … … CLM4 … CLM5
ORCHIDEE LMD-LSM SECHIBA ORCHIDEE … versions ofORCHIDEEwith different functionality
LPJ LPJ
LPJml LPJml … LPJml v5.1
LPJ-GUESS LPJ-GUESS … LPJ-GUESS v4.0
Model line Time® 69 ……. 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
LEAF-Hydro LEAF-Hydro - Global Groundwater Model

5. Global hydrological models 2015
Global hydrological models 2023
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
WaterGAP 3 *
WaterGAP WaterGAP 2 WaterGAP 2 2d *
G3M v1.0
WBM WBMPlus (WBM_TrANS) *
Mac-PDM … … Mac-PDM.09 Mac-PDM.20
WASMOD-M
H08 H08 (enhanced) *
``
PCR-GLOBWB PCR-GLOBWB 2 *
PCR-GLOBWB-MODFLOW GLOBGMv1.0*
MPI-HM HydroPy v1.0
Lisflood Europe Lisflood Africa Global Lisflood *
mHM (Germany and Europe) Global mHMv5.10
W3
CWatMv1.04 *
WAYS v1
WWH 1.3
LEAF
VIC … …. VIC 4.1 ….
Land model CCSR/NIES MATSIRO (also land model MIROC) *
MIROC-INTEG-LAND *
LEAF-Hydro LEAF-Hydro - Global Groundwater Model

6. New: Global groundwater models
Fan et al. (2013)
Reinecke et al. (2019)
De Graaf et et al (2017)
Verkaik et al. (2023)

7. New: Global groundwater models
Usefulness
Limitations
Paths to improvement

8. How good are global water models?
Beck et al. (2017)
Gnann et al (2023)
Global runoff estimates: 35k – 55k km3

9. Water Scarcity

10. A new and improved infographic of the hydrological cycle
Soil saturation 30-150 cm
Soil saturation 0-5 cm
River discharge (m3/s)
Fractional snow cover

11. Human impacts on the water cycle
Reservoirs Irrigation
Livestock water use
Industrial water use
Domestic water use

12. Global water withdrawal (Year 2010)
Wada et al., JAMES (2016)
Irrigation: 2800 km3
Livestock: 20 km3
Industrial: 950 km3
Domestic: 450 km3
Total withdrawal: 4220 km3
Total consumptive use: 1900
km3
Return flows: 2320 km3

13. Increase in water withdrawal 1900-2010
Bron: Wada et al., HESS, 2011
More than doubled since the 1960s!
Wada et al., JAMES (2016)

14. Water scarcity index: Water demand/water availability
Incompatibility of demand and availability Leads to water scarcity
WSI=
Withdrawal
Discharge
WSI=
Demand
Discharge
WSI=
Demand
Discharge−EFR
WSI=
Demand − 𝑁𝑅𝐺𝑊
Discharge
WSI=
Demand
Discharge + 𝑁𝑅𝐺𝑊

15. Types of water scarcity
Chronic water scarcity: mostly in arid and semi-arid regions where
people live (e.g. Middle east and North Africa)
Seasonal water scarcity: in areas with seasonal rainfall and cropping
over the dry season (e.g. India, California)
Occasional (inflammatory) water scarcity: in all populated regions under
drought (e.g. Netherlands)

16. Global water assessment tools

17. Global water assessment tools
WRI Aqueduct
• Water Risk Atlas
• Country rankings
• Floods
• Food
WWF Water risk filter
NGS World Water Map
Global Water Watch

18. Global modelling for Water Risk Atlas and World Water Map
FAO, WorldBank,
USGS, Döll group:
Land cover, pop., GDP,
energy demand etc
(1960-2019)
CMIP6 GCMs
Integrated Assessment models
(e.g. IMAGE)
SSPs and RCPs
CRU, GPCP
Emissions
Land cover
SSP 1, 3, 5 Land cover, pop.,
GDP, energy demand etc
(2015-2100)
ERA5 reanalysis
SSP 1, 3, 5
Sectoral Water demand
(2015-2100)
PCR-GLOBWB
PCR-GLOBWB
Global
MODFLOW
Hydrology and water
use 1979-2019
Sectoral Water demand
(1979-2019)
Hydrology and water
use 2020-2100
WRI Aqueduct
Water Risk Atlas
NGS
World Water Map
CMIP6 and Meteo ISI-MIP Utrecht University
W5F5 1979-2019
5 CMIP6 GCMs
Bias correction
1979-2014
RCP 2.6, 7.0, 8.5
5 GCM runs per RCP
Bias correction
1979-2019

19. Water Risk Atlas

20. Water Risk Atlas
Public: application
• International companies: good governance,
supply chains, risk accounting
• Investors: risk profiles
• NGOs: hazard assessments

21. 𝑊𝐺 = ෍
𝑖
(𝐷𝑖 − 𝑄𝑖)+
World Water Map

22. World Water Map
Hotspots: deep dives and story telling
Public: application
• General public: public outreach, teaching ->
water literacy
• (Data) journalists: underlying data sets
• Policy makers: country profiles, trends

23. Missing dimensions
Groundwater Water quality Externalities

24. Sources of crop water use
Wada et al. (WRR. 2011)
~50% of irrigation water is groundwater;
> 20% of global groundwater consumption for irrigation from non-renewable groundwater use
Groundwater

25. Global groundwater depletion estimates
Wada et al (2010)
Döll et al (2014)
Rodell et al (2018)
De Graaf et et al (2019)

26. Water scarcity is aggravated by the wrong water quality
Van Vliet et al. Nature Geosci 10, 800–802 (2017); Van Vliet et al. Environ. Res. Lett. 16 024020 (2021)

27. Global water quality modelling
PhD Edward Jones
Projected change in BOD
• Five GCMs
• Three SSP-RCP combinations
Global WQ model DYNQUAL

28. Water quality: coastal groundwater resources under pressure
Sea-level rise impact on coastal groundwater salinization
Zamrsky et al. (in press)
Percentage change in coastal fresh groundwater volume due to sea-level rise under RCP8.5

29. Water quality: offshore groundwater reserves
Offshore fresh groundwater resources in unconsolidated sediments
Zamrsky et al. (ERL, 2021)

30. Externalities: unaccounted impacts
Economic depletion
Perrone and Jasechko 2017
Trade flows and food prices
Dalin et al. (2017)
Land subsidence
Floods and
infrastructure damage
Impacts on ecosystems
De Graaf et al. (2019)

31. Thank you!
www.globalhydrology.nl
: m.f.p.bierkens@uu.nl
: @waterbier
GEOWAT