Drought Risk Management Scheme: a decision support system

1. Activity 5.4
Drought Risk Management Scheme:
a decision support system
Tamara Tokarczyk
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management
National Research Institute
POLAND
1st IDMP CEE Workshop, 16th October 2013, Slovakia

2. The main objective
Providing multi-sectoral and international perspective on:
• visualization and communication drought hazard (the probability of occurrence
of different phases of droughts),
• impacts of drought including socio-economic and environmental aspects,
• functional risk maps for various end-users and decision makers,
in order to develop an integrated framework for drought risk management.
The Activity 5.4 concentrate on promoting standard approaches to vulnerability
and impact assessment.

3. Contributing organizations and experts
POLAND
LITHUANIA
ROMANIA
• Institute of Meteorology
and Water Management
National Research
Institute, Wroclaw
Branch (IMGW-PIB)
Tamara Tokarczyk
Wiwiana Szalińska
• Institute of Technology
and Life Sciences (ITP)
Leszek Łabędzki
• Vilnus University,
Department of
Hydrology and
Climatology (UV)
Gintautas
Stankūnavičius,
Edvinas Stonevičius
• National Meteorological
Administaration (NMA)
Elena Mateescu
• National Research and
Development Institute
for Soil-Agrochemistry
and Environment
(ICPA), Bucuresti
Catalin Simota

4. Outputs and milestones
1. Measures for the assessment of susceptibility and
vulnerability to drought
• 1.1. Identification of the national measures for drought susceptibility
(drought hazard) assessment.
• 1.2. Identification of the national measures for drought vulnerability
assessment
2. Methods for the drought hazard and risk management
• 2.1. Developing methodology for drought hazard mapping with the use of
measures for drought susceptibility assessment
• 2.2. Framing methodology for vulnerability to drought assessment based
on available GIS information including population map, type of economic
activity map and protected area to showing the potential adverse
consequences
3. Framework for Drought Risk Management Scheme
• 3.1. Drought Risk Management Scheme for Odra River
• 3.2. Recommendations for operational support system in drought risk
management

5. Partner‘s tasks
• Developing framework for drought risk mapping scheme on international
level,
• Demonstrating its application for different drought context and regions,
• Estimating meteorological and hydrological drought indices for study basin
in Poland
• Developing thematic maps for meteorological and hydrological risk
presentations
• Developing methodology for meteorological and hydrological drought
hazard, susceptibility and vulnerability mapping for a river basin
• Providing information for agricultural drought risk management in Poland,
• Estimating agricultural drought indices for study basin in Poland,
• Developing thematic maps for agricultural risk presentations

6. Partner‘s tasks
• Providing information on national context for drought risk mapping scheme,
• Developing thematic maps for meteorological and hydrological drought risk
presentation,
• Developing methodology for hydrological drought hazard, susceptibility and
vulnerability mapping for a river basin,
• Harmonization of the methodologies for meteorological, agricultural and
hydrological drought map generation
• Providing information on national context for drought risk mapping,
• Developing guidelines for drought indicators application including EU
resolution and national specifications,
• Mapping climatologically characteristics (average summer precipitation,
heat waves, droughts, crop sensitivity, soil moisture, etc.)
• Providing information for agricultural drought risk management in Romania,
• Developing thematic maps for agricultural drought risk presentations,
• Developing methodology for agricultural drought hazard, susceptibility and
vulnerability mapping for a river basin.

7. Schedule of milestones
1.1
1.2
2.1
2.2
3.1
3.2
30.12.2013
30.12.2013
30.06.2014
30.06.2014
30.12.2013
15.03.2015

8. Ongoing work
Milestone 1.1. Identification of the national measures for drought susceptibility (drought
hazard) assessment
•
inventory of national data resource available for drought hazard assessment: climate, water,
crop and soil parameters
•
assessment of the adequacy of the existing monitoring networks (meteorological,
hydrological, ecological, remote sensing) for drought monitoring on a regular basis
•
identification and evaluation of existing national comprehensive, integrated drought
monitoring systems along with the data delivery and information dissemination to the user
community
•
existing, nationally applied indicators and indices, GIS methods to characterize the
magnitude, spatial extend, trends and drought duration
•
examination of current national arrangements and procedures for coordinating the collection
and analysis of meteorological, hydrological and ecological data, data sharing and their
applications for drought monitoring, preparedness, mitigation and response.

9. Ongoing work
Milestone 1.2. Identification of the national measures for drought vulnerability
assessment (drought impact)
•
Identification of national vulnerable economic sectors:
a) rain-fed agricultural production
g) heath
b) irrigated agricultural production
h) tourism and recreation
c) livestock production
i) energy
d) water quality and available resources
j) society
e) environment
k) education
f) transportation
l) cost of emergency response programs
•
Existing, nationally applied indicators and indices to characterize drought impacts: social,
economy and environmental parameters, revision of national drought impact records
•
Elicit key national stakeholders and their needs for information on drought risk on global,
regional and local levels and specific requirements for time sensitive decisions.

10. Ongoing work
Milestone 3.1. Drought Risk Management Scheme for Odra River
SMOK
CBDH
real-time measurements,
operational database
meteorological & hydrological
observations databse
Pd
PF EDI
Dd
DF FDC
Pm
Dm
SPI
SRI
drought indicies estimation
vulnerability
assessment climatological vulnerability
streamflow vulnerability
SPI-SRI
class
drought hazard prediction
meteorological drought hazard level
hydrological drought hazard level
reports
SH
graphs
warnings
maps
products generation
data acquisition & management,
analysis routines, models,
forecasts
existing infrastructure
SOK
Customer Service System
developed components
Pd – daily precipitation, Pm – monthly precipitation, PF – precipitation forecast
Dd – daily discharges, Dm – monthly precipitation, DF – discharge forecast

11. Implementation plan
OUTPUT 2. Methods for the drought hazard and risk management
Milestone 2.1. Developing methodology for drought hazard mapping with the use of
measures for drought susceptibility assessment.
•
•
•
State of the art, ongoing research to characterize and visualize the magnitude, spatial extend and
trends, duration and potential impact of droughts on social, environmental and economic aspects of
the country/region
Capability of the users and policy makers to apply and disseminate the drought indices used and the
validation of their appliance
Recommendation on standards for drought product visualization
Milestone 2.2. Framing methodology for vulnerability to drought assessment based on available
GIS information including population map, type of economic activity map and protected area to
showing the potential adverse consequences.
•
Development of risk assessment profiles showing physical, social economic and environmental
pressure on a community for global, regional and local scale. Providing regional examples of who and
what is at drought risk and why.
•
Development of criteria to weight the importance of drought impacts and vulnerability factors
•
Development of common terminology and methodologies to assess drought vulnerability to facilitate
the assessment of drought risk across the CEE region at multiple spatial scales
•
Recommendation on standards for data and products sharing with all sectors concerned with the
impact of drought

12. Thank for your attention!