The document provides guidance on developing an effective sales forecasting toolbox that includes tools for measuring success, managing unforeseen circumstances, and understanding holiday impacts on sales. It emphasizes the importance of analyzing past sales data and setting accurate forecasting goals to prevent over or under-ordering, which can negatively affect customer experience and brand image. Additionally, it highlights the need for scheduling efficiency by aligning staff training and management development with sales forecasts.

2. LEARN
How to develop a sales
forecasting toolbox.
How to measure the success of
your forecast.
The cost of missing your forecast.

3. What’s in your toolbox?
Always need to be
prepared for unforeseen
circumstances.
• Big snow fall
• Road construction,
delays
• Public Relations
Event

4. Toolbox: Calendars
+ Community
> School schedules
> Community events
+ Marketing
> Follow LTO schedules
> Build a forecast based on the items that you’re going to
sell.
> Know what weeks will be most popular for LTO
+ Federal and religious holidays
> Understand how these holidays impact your business
> MLK Day, Veteran’s Day, Fourth of July, Easter, Labor Day,
Christmas, Thanksgiving, Memorial Day
How are your day
parts impacted by
these events?

5. Toolbox: Forecasts
+ Weather
> Know the impacts of big storms, sunny days
> Relationship of weather and holidays
+ Menu Mix
> Put your business in a position where you can order and and prep in sync with the menu mix
> Enter LTO product mix into BOH system

6. Toolbox: Competitor Activity

7. Toolbox: Sales
+ Last year’s sales
> Matching supply and demand of last year
+ Comparable sales v. previous year
> Looking at last year’s trend compared to what you’re
currently doing
> Adjust to accommodate differences
+ 4-6 week average
> Pair this average with your calendars.
What factors
influenced your sales
last year?

8. Setting goals and measuring success

9. Are your numbers right?
To understand how effective your
sales forecasting is, you need to
look back at various metrics and
compare to a goal.

10. Example: Ineffective Forecasting

11. Sales Forecasting Calculation
+ Are you accurate?
+ Look at variance percent every day
+ Percentage should always be + or – 5%

12. Sales forecasting goals
+ How big is your window?
> +/- 3% of sales on a $5,000 day = $300 window
> +/- 5% of sales on a $5,000 day = $500 window
+ Understand what your window is and forecast in the middle of it.

13. Measuring Success
+ Review metrics daily to get better control of your business
> Data analytics tools make this easy
+ Pay attention to your order cycle
> 3,4,5 days for more accurate ordering, inventory control
> How long will a delivery cover you for?
> Make sure I have enough product but not too much.
+ Weekly effectiveness is best only if you’re in the 3-5% variance range

14. The cost of missing
your forecast
+ Cash
+ Compromised
customer experience
+ Poor brand image
+ Too much or too little
product

15. Ordering and Prepping
+ Over or under ordering = loss
> Using resources to get more product
> Wasting unused product
+ Over or under ordering = food safety issues
> Exceed hold times due to excess product
> Excess product causes temperature issues

16. Scheduling & Forecasting
The employee schedule and sales forecast should work together

17. A great schedule includes:
+ training of new hires
+ cross training of existing staff
+ development of the management team
+ time for detailed cleaning
….all within the framework of running the business and
caring for the customers

18. Schedule and Forecast

19. Conclusion
+ Arm yourself with the tools you need for an accurate forecast
> Calendars
> Sales trends
> Competitor activity
> Forecasts
+ Measure your success
> Data analytics
> Variance
+ Stay flexible
> Adjust employee schedules to accommodate forecasting
> Bend with unforeseen circumstances

20. Blog:
www.delaget.com/blog/
Twitter:
@Delaget
LinkedIn:
Search for ‘Delaget’
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