Presented by Dr. Michael Brady, CIFOR, 25 July 2019

1. Development and Applications of
Fire Danger Rating Systems
in Southeast Asia
Dr. Michael Brady, CIFOR, 25 July 2019

2. Early Warning Information
Data
Information
Action
Analysis &
Interpretation
-Fuel
-Weather
-Fire
Hot Spot
FDRS
Decision Making:
Analysis &
Interpretation
-Risk (ignition)
-Priority (impacts)
-Timing (spread)
-Resources (control)
-Fuel
-Weather
-Fire

3. Fire Danger
• A general term used to describe conditions of
the fire environment including a) ease of
ignition, b) rate of spread, c) difficulty of
control and d) fire impact
• Indicates the ability of a fire to start, spread
and do damage

4. Canadian Forest Fire Danger
Rating System (CFFDRS)
• FDR research initiated in
1925
• 5 FDRS versions
developed since then,
each building on previous
System
• latest CFFDRS
established in 1968

5. CFFDRS Structure

6. FIRE WEATHER INDEX
Different components measure different aspects of
fire potential

7. Underlying Principle
• Each of the behavior indices corresponds to a variable in
Byram’s line fire intensity equation:
I = HWR
where
FWI estimates: I = energy output per unit length of fire front (kw/m)
BUI estimates: W = weight of available fuel (kg/m2)
ISI estimates: R = rate of spread (m/min)
and
H = heat of combustion, (considered constant)
FWI Behavior Indices
The most important measure of fire behaviour is fire intensity.Fire intensity (I) represents the heat released
per meter of firefront (kW/m of fire front). It is a function of (1) heat yield of fuel (kilojoules/kg), (2) amount of
fuel per unit area (kg/m2) and (3) the rate of forward spread of fire front (km/h).

8. Prevention Measures
• Increased public
awareness activities
• Step-up detection
activities
• Notification of
relevant agencies
and companies

9. Monitoring Measures
• Provides daily indicators of fire hazards
• Critical for planning aerial surveillance, pre-
suppression activities and enforcement

10. Mitigation Measures
• Position resources where more fires are
expected
• Determine resource requirements based on
potential severity of fires
• Coordinate resources of
relevant agencies and
companies

11. Southeast Asia FDRS Project
1999-2004 + Ongoing Updates
• Expanded application of FDRS in fire prone
areas of SE Asia
• Enhancement of vegetation fire information
and management systems in the region, to
complement FDRS
• Enhanced awareness and capacity of
regional networks to provide early warning
for anticipated fires and transboundary haze

12. A. Technical Adaptation
B. FDRS Operation
C. Practical Application
D. Regional Networks
Project Organization & Activities

13. Adaptation Activities
• Model development
• Calibration:
• Hot spot calibration
• Fire climate study
• Fuel moisture and ignition studies
• Definition & adjustment of fire danger
class boundary
• Fuel type mapping

14. FDR and Hotspots

15. 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 o m e t s
N
INTEGRATED
WEATHER
01/15/2000
MISSING
01/15/2000
01/15/2000
01/15/2000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1 0 3 0 0 K il e r
Drought Code
Sumatra, Indonesia
1994-1998
961090-DC
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1 27 53 79 105131 157 183 209235 261 287313 339 365
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
960350-DC
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1 27 53 79 105 131157 183209235 261287 313339 365
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
962210-DC
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1 27 53 79 105131 157183209 235261287 313339365
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Historical Weather Database
Spatial Calculations
Analysis
Historical Weather Database

16. Analysis of Historical Weather Data
Characterize the fire climate in terms of fire season onset, severity and duration

17. FDRS Project Office, BPPT Building
Jl. M.H. Thamrin 8, Building I, 1st Floor
Jakarta 10340 - Indonesia
Tel/Fax : (62.21) 3190 1424
http://nofc.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/seasia/
2
Monthly Drought Code Distribution - Palembang
Month
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
DroughtCode
0
200
400
600
800
1000
FIRE CLIMATE ASSESSMENT
SUMATERA, INDONESIA
Guswanto, R. Field, J. Wigianto, Iqbal, Suwandi, M. Brady and J. Little
Climate has been attributed as a major factor in recent fire and haze events in Sumatera Island, and the role of
weather in vegetation fires in other parts of the world is well documented. This study assessed the longer-term fire
weather characteristics of Sumatera Island by examining seasonal patterns in a variety of fire danger rating (FDR)
indices.
Components of the fire climate assessment are important to the development of fire management in South East Asia for
several reasons. Fire season characterization allows fire managers to compare current FDR values against historical FDR
values, improving their ability to assess the severity of the current fire danger situation. In addition, it allows fire managers
to assess the expected onset, severity and duration of a fire season. These benefits in turn allow fire managers to more
effectively implement smoke-prevention mechanism, such as burning permit restrictions, public warnings, fire patrols, and
pre-allocation of fire-fighting resources.
Here, fire season refers to a period of climatic conditions where severe burning conditions, or fire weather, are present. The
relationship between fire season and large-scale phenomenon such as the El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is was
examined.
Fire climate was assessed using FDR indices, whose
calculation requires a continuous record of daily weather
values. An integrated historical daily weather database was
constructed using data from BMG and the NCDC. Database
integration included reformatting source data and applying
temporal interpolation in the case of missing data. The
integrated weather database was then used as input to the
Spatial Fire Management System (sFMS), which uses
interpolated weather surfaces constructed from weather
station data to calculate FDR surfaces.
Data from the calculated FDR surfaces was extracted by
sampling the surfaces at a defined set of locations. Time-
series techniques were applied to each sampled location to
determine the seasonality of calculated historical FDR
values. Based on these analyses, the typical fire climatic
regions were identified.
The relationship between historical FDR values and historical
ENSO indicators was examined using correlation analysis at
varying time-lags, with regions of strong and weak
correlation being identified.
Fire Weather Index System - Drought Code :
Drought Code (DC) measures moisture in deep
organic soils (peat) and heavier dead fuels on
the surface. DC indicates potential for deep,
smoldering fires.
Daily DC surfaces built using daily weather grids.
Cell-wise statistics calculated from daily DC
grids, over:
• each individual month (e.g., July 1985 Mean
DC)
• all months, excluding startup (JFM 1973) &
1976, for DC normal.
Mean Monthly Maximum DC:
• on average, how high does the Drought Code
get each month?
Grids stratified based on NCEPCPC ENSO
classification.
START PEAK END
Fire Climate Assessments Goals :
Determine the existence of a typical fire season or
seasons in Sumatra Island and to then characterize
their inter-annual and spatial variability with respect
to onset, severity, and duration.
Build longer-term Fire Weather Index (FWI)
database.
Look at seasonality, normal & extreme FWI values.
Examine relationships between FWI system values
and climate.
Example Questions:
• how does this today’s Drought Code (DC)
compare to ’82 or ’97?
• how bad does the DC typically get in
September?
• how severe can the DC get during El Nino and
non-El Nino years?
Drought Code
Sumatera, Indonesia
1973-1998
PEAK
Heavy smoke and Haze affecting communities
Plantation burning
Drought code of Palembang, 1973-1998
NON EL NINO CONDITION
EL NINO CONDITION
Median Drought Code and First Harmonics for ENSO and non -ENSO years,
Palembang Station, 1994 -1998
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Julian Date
D
R
O
U
G
H
T
C
O
D
e
MEDIAN DC ENSO FIRST HARMONIC- ENSO
MEDIAN DC NON-ENSO FIRST HARMONIC-NON ENSO
Combusition Threshold Extreme Drought
PATTERNS OF DRY PERIODS IN SUMATRA

18. FUEL CHARACTERIZATION
• Fuel Type Classification
• Fuel Model Calibration:
– Moisture Profile Study
– Ignition Study
• Fuel Mapping

19. Fuel Type Mapping

20. Electronic FDRS
Daily Maps, Electronic, Automated, Multiple Stations

21. Practical Applications
• Primary objective to integrate FDRS products with
existing fire suppression and mobilization plans
• Mobilization can become more anticipatory
through early warning, paving
the way for better preparedness
in serious fire situations

22. Interpretation of FWI Danger Levels for Difficulty
of Control and Practical Applications

23. Regional FDRS
Supports the haze monitoring functions of the Regional Haze Action
Plan/ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution