NREN Climate Change Preparedness
– Adapting under uncertainty
Dr. Conor Murphy
Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units (...
Observations
of Global
Temperature
Loading the Dice
Source: Hansen et al 2012 PNAS
Ireland Winter 2013-14
Figure 1|Domains Analysed and
NCEP1 Cyclone Metrics.
a, Domains analysed: I-UK (Ireland
and UK), HLNA (High-Latitude North...
Supplementary Figure 1| Storm track position and trends in extreme wind speeds. a, Mean DJF (1948/49 to
2013/2014) storm-t...
Figure 2|Extended Cyclone Metrics from 20CR.
a, I-UK storminess for the 141-year RA-20CR (blue) and 66-year NCEP1 (red) se...
Atmospheric
Rivers
• Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are
the key synoptic features
which deliver the majority of
pole-ward water ...
Multi-sector Mega Floods
ARs
More Common
in Future!
• North Atlantic ARs are
projected to become stronger
and more numerous in the
future scenarios...
Conventional Scenario Led
Adaptation
Figure 1 A ‘cascade of uncertainty’ in precipitation changes projected by the CMIP5 ensemble for the River Naryn basin,
Ce...
Mired in Uncertainty......
Source - New, M. et al., 2007. Challenges in using probabilistic climate change information for...
Scenario Neutral Adaptation Planning
Framework for Preparedness
• Broad review of sectoral and cross-sectoral
climate related risks.
• Understand current vulne...
Scenario Neutral Adaptation Planning
Decision
Appraisal
Source: Wilby, R.L., Dawson, C., Murphy, C., O’Connor, P Decision-Centric Adaptation. Climate Research
...
Role of surprises and cascade failures
Source Scheffer 2009
Conclusions
• Framework for climate change preparedness:
– Improved understanding of climate change risks
and uncertaintie...
Internet climate adaptation and preparednessstrategy
Internet climate adaptation and preparednessstrategy
Internet climate adaptation and preparednessstrategy
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Internet climate adaptation and preparednessstrategy

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Must view guide on how to prepare a climate adaptation and preparedness strategy for Internet networks

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Internet climate adaptation and preparednessstrategy

  1. 1. NREN Climate Change Preparedness – Adapting under uncertainty Dr. Conor Murphy Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units (ICARUS), Dept. Of Geography, NUI Maynooth NUI MAYNOOTH Ollscoil na Éireann Má Nuad
  2. 2. Observations of Global Temperature
  3. 3. Loading the Dice Source: Hansen et al 2012 PNAS
  4. 4. Ireland Winter 2013-14
  5. 5. Figure 1|Domains Analysed and NCEP1 Cyclone Metrics. a, Domains analysed: I-UK (Ireland and UK), HLNA (High-Latitude North Atlantic) and the MLNA (Mid-Latitude North Atlantic). NA domain comprises both HLNA and MLNA. b, Winter (December - February) cyclonicity metrics for the same regions derived from NCEP1 with associated rank for W2013/14. Units for cyclone counts are ‘cyclone days’, defined as the number of cyclones detected in 6-hourly sea-level pressure fields, divided by four. Mean cyclone intensity is given as the local Laplacian of sea level pressure; ‘storminess’ is the summed intensities, in the same units. Source: Matthews, T, Murphy, C. Wilby, R.L., Harrigan, S. Submitted Nature Climate Change April 2014
  6. 6. Supplementary Figure 1| Storm track position and trends in extreme wind speeds. a, Mean DJF (1948/49 to 2013/2014) storm-track position shown by the standard deviation of the 500-hPa geopotential height (m) calculated from 6-hourly NCEP1 data and bandpass filtered on time scales of 2–8 days. b, trends in DJF 95th percentiles of NCEP1 10-metre wind speeds, given as the slope of a least-squares linear regression of wind speed (‘y’) on year (‘x’) over the same period Source: Matthews, T, Murphy, C. Wilby, R.L., Harrigan, S. Submitted Nature Climate Change April 2014
  7. 7. Figure 2|Extended Cyclone Metrics from 20CR. a, I-UK storminess for the 141-year RA-20CR (blue) and 66-year NCEP1 (red) series. The shaded region is the 95% prediction bound of the transfer function used to bridge 20CR to NCEP1 (see supplementary information). The red horizontal line shows the unprecedented nature of NCEP1 storminess for W2013/14. b, Correlation between CRUTS3.21 precipitation and cyclone metrics derived from RA-20CR. Source: Matthews, T, Murphy, C. Wilby, R.L., Harrigan, S. Submitted Nature Climate Change April 2014
  8. 8. Atmospheric Rivers • Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of pole-ward water vapour transport. • Associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. • ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; Source Lavers et al 2013 Environmental Research Letters
  9. 9. Multi-sector Mega Floods
  10. 10. ARs More Common in Future! • North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from global climate models • Greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. • In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs Source: Lavers et al. (2013) Environmental Research Letters
  11. 11. Conventional Scenario Led Adaptation
  12. 12. Figure 1 A ‘cascade of uncertainty’ in precipitation changes projected by the CMIP5 ensemble for the River Naryn basin, Central Asia (70-80°E, 40-45°N). The three levels of each pyramid illustrate uncertainty due to the choice of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), GCM and realisation of climate variability. Not all simulations have multiple realisations, resulting in a vertical line in the lowest layer. The intersection on the top row for each time period is the multi- scenario, multi-model, multi-realisation mean.
  13. 13. Mired in Uncertainty...... Source - New, M. et al., 2007. Challenges in using probabilistic climate change information for impact assessments: an example from the water sector. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365(1857), pp.2117– 2131.
  14. 14. Scenario Neutral Adaptation Planning
  15. 15. Framework for Preparedness • Broad review of sectoral and cross-sectoral climate related risks. • Understand current vulnerabilities and exposures through stakeholder engagement. • Assess ranges of change for key risks – don't need to rely on just climate models! • Develop adaptation inventory with stakeholders • Assess robustness and performance of measures
  16. 16. Scenario Neutral Adaptation Planning
  17. 17. Decision Appraisal Source: Wilby, R.L., Dawson, C., Murphy, C., O’Connor, P Decision-Centric Adaptation. Climate Research (In review)
  18. 18. Role of surprises and cascade failures Source Scheffer 2009
  19. 19. Conclusions • Framework for climate change preparedness: – Improved understanding of climate change risks and uncertainties – Brings best available evidence together in a coherent and consistent framework to describe the sensitivity, vulnerability and potential risks of climate change – Practical methods that meet the needs of decision makers

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