bundelkhand drought analysis

1. Presented by-
Rohit Trivedi
PhD Scholar– Civil Engineering
Roll no. 1610120077
School of Engineering

2. Contents
 Major challenges in drought research
 Causes of droughts
 Objectives of the study
 Proposed methodology
 Refrences

3. Major challenges in drought research
 Insidious character
 No universal definition
 Less spatio-temporal anaylsis
 Climate Change and effects like El-Nino oscillations

4. Causes of droughts (Ryu et al. 2004)

5. Objectives of the study
1. To investigate major factors and characteristics of
drought events occurred in Bundelkhand region for
better understanding of their intensity, severity, scale
and occurrence.
2. To develop an innovative drought index which could be
applicable on analysis of regional droughts on spatio-
temporal basis and to compare it with various
contemporary developed indices.

6. 3. To develop a precise forecasting method for regional
droughts specifically for Bundelkhand region.
4. To study various environmental, social and economic
impacts of drought events.
5. To check efficiency of current mitigation measures being
used and to suggest better possible mitigation strategies
on the basis of above objectives.
Objectives of the study

7. Proposed Methodology
1. A detailed statistical and regression analysis of inter relations
between various factors such as rainfall pattern, temperature
pattern, crop pattern, water supply and demand, water bodies,
ground water table, geographical conditions, land use and
population change (human as well as livestock) on block scale
could be done.
2. As every drought event has unique characteristic, there is no
universally accepted definition of drought and index. So, a
hybrid drought index on the basis of region characteristics
and study of above factors would be developed after
comparing various regression based and probabilistic based
models.

8.  Frequency- or probability-based methods
-low flows or low-flow volumes during a specified period
are analysed in a manner similar to that of flood peak
analysis. (Demerit- Uncertainty due to chaotic behaviour
of climate)
 Regression-based methods
-to relate drought parameters with geomorphic and/or
climatic factors, crop yield factors, and other relevant
factors. (Demerit- Based on historical events and climate
change)

9. Proposed Methodology
3. An integrated approach for both hydrological (soil moisture) as
well as meteorological (precipitation) could be considered for
better and long term (more than two weeks; current methods
forecasts up to 2 weeks) forecasting by developing an algorithm
that can be used for artificial neural network (artificial
intelligence)
4. Environmental impacts can be studied through analysing crop
failure, water level depletion and loss of species and socio-
economic effects can be studied through public survey.
5. By figuring out various significant factors of drought events
effective mitigation measures can be suggested.

10. Multi step neural network approach

11. Refrences
 Dai A, Trenberth KE, Qian T (2004) A global set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for
1870–2002: relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J
Hydrometeorol 5:1117–1125
 McKee, T. B., N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist.(1993).The relationship of drought frequency
and duration to time scales, 8th conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22 , 179-184.
 Jain, V.K., Pandey, R.P., Jain, M.K. and Byun, H.R., 2015. Comparison of drought indices
for appraisal of drought characteristics in the Ken River Basin. Weather and Climate
Extremes, 8, pp.1-11.
 Palmer, W. C. (1965) Meteorological drought. Paper no. 45, 1-58. Weather Bureau, US
Dept of Commerce, Washington DC, USA
 Sohrabi, M.M., Ryu, J.H., Abatzoglou, J. and Tracy, J., 2015. Development of soil moisture
drought index to characterize droughts. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 20(11),
p.04015025.
 Thomas, T., Jaiswal, R.K., Nayak, P.C. and Ghosh, N.C., 2015. Comprehensive evaluation
of the changing drought characteristics in Bundelkhand region of Central
India. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 127(2), pp.163-182.
 .

12. References
 Thomas, T., Nayak, P.C. and Ghosh, N.C., 2015. Spatiotemporal Analysis of
Drought Characteristics in the Bundelkhand Region of Central India using the
Standardized Precipitation Index. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 20(11),
p.05015004.
 Yevjevich, V. (1972) Stochaslic Processes in Hydrology Water Resources
Publications, Highlands Ranch, Colorado, USA

13. Thank You.