1. Market Outlook
India Research
September 27, 2010
Dealer’s Diary Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
The benchmark indices snapped last two-day losses as the recent strong foreign BSE Sensex 0.9% 184.2 20,045
fund inflows kept the sentiment upbeat. The market moved between the positive Nifty 1.0% 58.8 6,018
and the negative terrains in early trade. It hit a fresh intraday high in morning MID CAP 1.0% 83.9 8,115
trade, as Asian stocks turned positive and as US index futures rose. However, in SMALL CAP 1.1% 107.0 10,267
early afternoon trade, it pared gains from the day's high. Later, it extended BSE HC 0.9% 51.2 5,976
gains to hit fresh intraday highs in mid-afternoon trade. However, in late trade, BSE PSU 0.5% 55.3 10,313
the market trimmed gains, but the BSE Sensex closed higher by 0.9% above the BANKEX 1.0% 135.6 13,914
20,000 mark, while Nifty crossed the 6,000 mark, gaining 1.0%. BSE mid-cap AUTO 0.9% 88.8 9,508
and small cap indices closed higher by 1.0% and 1.1%, respectively. Among the
METAL 0.3% 49.5 16,652
front liners, DLF, HUL, Hero Honda, Bharti Airtel and Maruti Suzuki gained 1–
OIL & GAS 0.5% 58.2 10,646
5%, while Jindal Steel, Sterlite Industries, Tata Motors, TCS and M&M lost 0–1%.
BSE IT 0.5% 30.1 5,973
Among mid caps, South Indian Bank, Jindal South, Pidilite Industries, Sobha
Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Developers and BF Utilities gained 5–14%, while Financial Technologies, IL&FS
Trans., HT Media, AllCargo Global and Atlas Copco lost 3–11%. Dow Jones 1.9% 197.8 10,860
NASDAQ 2.3% 54.1 2,381
Markets Today FTSE 0.9% 51.4 5,598
The trend deciding level for the day is 19983 / 6000 levels. If NIFTY trades Nikkei -1.0% (94.6) 9,472
above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a Hang Seng 0.3% 71.7 22,119
further rally up to 20133 – 20222/ 6048 -6077 levels. However, if NIFTY Straits Times 0.3% 9.5 3,093
trades below 19983 / 6000 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may Shanghai Com 0.1% 2.8 2,592
correct up to 19895 -19745 / 5970 - 5922 levels.
Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Indices S2 S1 R1 R2 Infosys 2.2% 1.5 $66.9
SENSEX 19,745 19,895 20,133 20,222 Wipro 3.7% 0.5 $14.7
NIFTY 5,922 5,970 6,048 6,077 Satyam -23.7% (1.5) $4.7
ICICI Bank 3.3% 1.6 $49.2
News Analysis HDFC Bank 2.8% 5.0 $184.1
First advance estimates of crop production
HCC bags Rs660cr hydel project order
Advances / Declines BSE NSE
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page.
Advances 1,838 949
Net Inflows (September 23, 2010)
Declines 1,150 420
Rs cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD
Unchanged 101 34
FII 3,044 2,461 583 20,899 80,026
MFs 396 674 (278) (4,128) (19,920)
Volumes (Rs cr)
FII Derivatives (September 24, 2010) BSE 5,689
Open NSE 16,012
Rs cr Purch Sales Net
Interest
Index Futures 3,684 4,383 (698) 24,333
Stock Futures 5,025 5,764 (739) 41,884
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Losers
Price chg Price chg
Company Company
(Rs) (%) (Rs) (%)
IDFC 206 5.3 Financial Tech. 1,221 (11.0)
Federal Bank 389 5.2 Tech Mahindra 773 (3.4)
DLF 366 5.2 Ispat 23 (1.9)
Exide Ind. 163 4.3 Mundra Port 163 (1.8)
Aban Offshore 860 4.2 BEML 1,092 (1.7)
1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539

2. Market Outlook | India Research
First advance estimates of crop production
As per the government’s first advance estimate of crop production for the kharif season,
sugarcane production is estimated to be at 325mn tonnes, which is broadly in line with our
estimates of 338mn tonnes (4% below our estimates). However, we are not revising our
sugar production estimates for SY2011 and continue to expect production of 26.7mn
tonnes. We maintain our Neutral rating on the Sugar sector and stocks.
HCC bags Rs660cr hydel project order
Hindustan Construction Company (HCC) has bagged Rs660cr contract by GMR
(Badrinath) Hydro Power Generation Pvt. Ltd. for 300MW (3x100) Alaknanda Hydroelectric
Power Project at Badrinath, Uttarakhand. The contract has been awarded in two lots, the
first lot is valued at Rs272.8cr and the second lot is valued at Rs387.2cr, expected to be
executed over 52 months and 54 months, respectively, from the date of notice to proceed.
We have valued HCC on an SOTP basis and have assigned a 14x P/E multiple to its
FY2012E (Rs25.7/share) standalone earnings. We have valued the company’s real estate
(Rs29.3/share) venture on an NAV basis and BOT assets (Rs8.1/share) on a P/BV basis to
arrive at a fair value of Rs63/share for the stock. We believe at the CMP of Rs60, the stock
price factors in all the upside from the construction arm and its real estate venture and has
limited upside to our fair value. Hence, we maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
September 27, 2010 2

3. Market Outlook | India Research
Economic and Political News
India's forex reserves up by US $3.23bn to US $287.73bn
Govt. mulling policy on M&As by MNCs in the pharma sector
Sebi red flags IPO pricing, zero fees
Coal Minister seeks equality for PSUs, pvt. coal cos. in profit sharing
Corporate News
Satyam to delist its ADRs from NYSE next month
DGH disallows Reliance gas discovery on technical lapse
ADAG gets govt. nod for 26% stake in ICEX
Aurobindo gets USFDA nod for three generic antibiotic injections
Strides raises US $100mn via QIP
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Event for the day
SKS Microfinance Results
September 27, 2010 3

4. Market Outlook | India Research
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