3. The test model concept has a number of interrelated elements:
it is spatially-explicit
it models materials (“resources”)
it models conversions (“processes”) – both natural and synthetic
it includes business models, economics and behaviour
1.1 The Ecological Sequestration Trust (TEST) circular
economy model
4. Overall ambition:
identify nature, quantity, location and destination of wastes
combining spatial and technological models identifies local
opportunities.
needs knowledge of potential local “user” industries
material types, demands, locations, technology needs
identify piloting opportunities
locations
stakeholders/partners
business and funding models
1.1 Application to Dorset
5. 1. Understanding of current and recent historical data on all wastes sub-
streams
2. Understand compositional data for the sub-streams
3. Geophysical understanding of Dorset
Managed or preserved land, degree of urbanisation
Brief overall description of the terrain.
4. Socio-economic understanding of Dorset
Population density, economic sectors (input-output data if applicable),
Uptake routes for recovered materials and energy, e.g. markets
Opportunities for industrial ecology / symbiosis initiatives.
1.1 General approach (part 1)
Digestate granulate
6. 6. Results
The analysis includes a narrowing down of the technical opportunities
appropriate to the local resource.
Indication of the options that can address Dorset’s sustainability objectives
relating to greenhouse gas, cost, recovery rates, secondary impacts or
substitution effects, resource efficiency, and, finally, energy, material and
food security.
1.1 General approach (part 2)
5. Available Infrastructure
Current waste management installations (performance
and capacity)
Current recycling and material re-processing facilities
and their location
Potential demand for improved recovered materials
Plus collect similar high-relevance data for neighbouring
areas
CO2 CH4
7. 1.1 Case study: Increasing value of biogenic waste
The region does not send much biogenic waste to landfill (although
there is no breakdown of MSW which will include food waste and water waste may
include sludge):
190 67
11805
5351
105
2437
185
154265
454
4166
90156
AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PROCESSING
WASTES
CHEMICAL SURFACE TREATMENT AND
COATING OF METALS WASTE
CONSTRUCTION AND DEMOLITION
WASTES
CONSTRUCTION AND DEMOLITION
WASTES
FURNITURE, PAPER AND CARDBOARD
MANUFACTURING WASTES
HUMAN AND ANIMAL HEALTH CARE
WASTE
MINE AND QUARRY WASTES
MUNICIPAL WASTES
SHAPING AND PHYSICAL TREATMENT
OF METALS AND PLASTICS
THERMAL PROCESSES WASTE
WASTE ABND WATER TREATMENT
WASTES
8. This includes
Green waste : current estimate 0.1m tonnes per annum (tpa)
Biogenic fraction of MSW and C&I waste
0.5m tpa of C&I in region, estimate 12% biogenic
0.4m tpa of MSW, estimate 30% biogenic
Agricultural waste : current estimate 0.1m tpa
Wastewater treatment solids : current estimate 0.1m tpa
Total circa 400,000 tpa
Note that the organic fraction of waste in the region is estimated at around 180ktpa but
this excludes agricultural.
A separate analysis gives a figure of 600,000 tpa as a capacity requirement for non-inert
waste.
Current destinations
7 facilities : 4 x Anaerobic Digestion (AD) and 3 x composting
Total capacity of about 150,000 tpa (approx 115 kpta composting)
Value generation estimate:
composting: £60,000 pa
AD: £4,000,000 pa
Unknown : value generation per tonne processed = 0
Total current value-added = £4.06m [estimate]
1.1 Biogenic waste – current situation
9. Examples of opportunities arising
from more sophisticated approach:
Intercept waste at source and optimize
end use by type
segregation of all bakery waste and use
for animal feed: value > £100/t
hydrolysis of green waste and
conversion to industrial biotech and
chemical feedstock: value added ~ £200/t
gasification of sludge, waste wood etc
and conversion through fermentation (e.g.
Lanzatec process) : value added ~ £200/t
Maximise the benefit of AD through
integrated nutrient cycling and grid
integration
Potential future value-added > £40m pa
Tenfold increase through integrated
analysis and new technology!
Upcycling of biogenic waste –
systemic opportunities
10. Resource recovery/upcycling should be
designed in a holistic way, so that the
product, processes and chain are
optimised for a circular economy system,
rather than the current approach to
bolting-on recycling processes.
We are working on fundamental
techniques for supply chain design and
applying them to diverse applications,
including fluorescent lamps in Korea.
The diagrams alongside show our
redesign of a fluorescent lamp recycling
network; the optimised network has a 60%
reduction in transport energy and
emissions.
Benefit of spatial approach :
Korean example
1 2 4 5 63
7 8 109 11 12
1413 15 16 17 18
2019 21 22 23 24
2625 27 28 29 30
3231 33 34 35 36
3837 39 40 41 42
4443 45 46 47 48
5049 51 52 53 54
1
7
13
19
25
31
37
43
49
Existing network O
1 2 4 5 63
7 8 109 11 12
1413 15 16 17 18
2019 21 22 23 24
2625 27 28 29 30
3231 33 34 35 36
3837 39 40 41 42
4443 45 46 47 48
5049 51 52 53 54
1 2 4 5 63
7 8 109 11 12
1413 15 16 17 18
2019 21 22 23 24
2625 27 28 29 30
3231 33 34 35 36
3837 39 40 41 42
4443 45 46 47 48
5049 51 52 53 54
Existing network Optimised network
11. Case study: green waste conversion –
integrated bio refinery
The flexible, modular biorefinery
Variety of raw materials
preprocessing
CO2
sink
IB
chemical
thermal
Biochar to land
Variety of products
Modular and flexible; can adapt to changing feedstocks over time
Pilot in Aberystwyth (Beacon project) .....
Example would be MSW → RDF → pyrolysis oil → upgraded pyrolysis oil
Could be utilised in Dorset
12. 11.1 Furniture Refurbishment
90,156 tonnes of furniture, paper,
cardboard and manufacturing waste per
year
Sofas, fridges, cookers, microwaves,
dining tables, washing machines
Bulked up in Dorset and sent to other
authorities to be treated / turned into new
products
Re-use networks offer affordable
furniture – successful schemes set up by
Hampshire County Council and others
Community social enterprise companies
such as TRACO – The Recycled Assets
Company
13. 11.1 Furniture Refurbishment
Potential market:
Council tax records indicate 2000 properties occupied by students in
Bournemouth
Large numbers of homes of multiple occupancy (HMOs), notably
Boscombe East and Winton in Bournemouth
Bournemouth estimated increase in unemployment from 2007-2010
Poor households seek accommodation in lower priced areas such
Blandford Forum and parts of Bournemouth
26% households cannot afford houses in current market without
subsidies – esp. Bournemouth, lone parents
14. Adding value to waste products is an idea with great currency
However it is hindered by:
-Lack of data
-Lack of clear business models
-Need to synchronise system/infrastructure and markets
TEST has been set up based on a recognition of these issues
-Spatially-, temporally- and technologically-rich data sets will be included in the platform
-Geolocalisation and data fusion will keep the system up to date
-Economic and activity models can be used to explore different business models
-Benefits can be quantified
1.1 Summary
Editor's Notes
Waste as a resource is not a new concept. Dorset has been a leader in the municipal field on recycling for many years and has looked for innovative ways of bringing added value into the recycling market.
However, the modern work on material resources goes back well into the last century. The EU, Japan’s 3 ’r’s’ initiative, the UN’s sustainability programme, the Prince of Wales’s business and the environment programme , projects like NISP, the work of WRAP and successive Government’s setting policies for the added value of material recovery as well as NGO’s exhortations and councils formal local plans have all sought to move away from a wasteful throw away society.
There have been successes in the reduction of wastes sent to landfill especially in the commercial sector. There is a great deal more recycling in the world but the easier task has just about been finished, NEW TECHNOLOGIES ARE ALSO ON THEIR WAY
There is still too much material going to landfill, too much waste of resources and money and this TEST project aims to set a new paradigm in taking the agenda forward.
There is a new phrase being used now ; the circular economy.
The trouble with the easy to say phrase is that as an economy it does not exist!
The economy exists, business development, new opportunities exist but nothing goes round in a loop.
However, as shown here the concept is very apt because it indicates that there is generally a solution to all routes for recovery before one has to pay for wastage.
What a diagram cannot show is that we are not just talking about turning glass bottles into new glass bottles. Whilst this is important there are other added value routes fro glass. It can be used as filtration material at a value many times higher than its bottle worth. Other uses of higher value also exist as they do for most materials.
We are not then just interested in recycling but in a wider approach to conserving resource use, adding value by developing new markets in both materials and energy fields, reducing carbon, and generally being of more sustainable use to society.
The concept of not having waste is critical, AS IS SEEING ALL MATERIAL STREAMS AS POTENTIAL RESOURCES AND IDENTIFYING APPROPRIATE USES FOR THESE. This is the cultural paradigm we seek.
In ‘East of Eden’ Steinbeck’s character xxx the father of the two brothers says to them. ‘waste is something I do not like, I cannot afford it’
This slide explains the known unknown AND EXPLAINS THE STRUCTURE OF OUR PROPOSED MODEL .
There is much we know. But there is also much that needs to be put together in different ways in order for us to look at the material resource economy in a new way.
TEST aims to collect the known data, to derive the unknown data from the areas we know we need to collect it and then to model it in a complex way that will look at a wide range of alternatives to generate business opportunities and models that work from an investment and return point of view.
The circular economy is not about charity, hand-outs, grants or pilots but about sustainable business development .
What the model will do is to be locale specific using all local data and look at logistics, innovative ways of utilising the materials generated and the business cases for investment.
So we have to find out a great deal of information first. Log it , map it , analyse it into component elements of material and composition
We can then identify the best opportunities fro new developments
Involving local partners/stakeholders whatever term you use but local people interested in helping we know that there will be new ideas developed to make more money from what is currently wasted
So we are seeking to know what we currently do not know even though we know what we want to know.
This will take an initial focus on data collection and also access to data which sometimes is held in commercial enterprises but which is actually not commercially sensitive. The data will be freely available for use to derive business models
The data also needs geographic ,GIS based data, as well as the populations demographics and other more social aspects of the county so that the modelling may take into account the behaviour of a community
THE NATURE AND QUANTITIES OF DIFFERENT WASTE STREAMS AND THEIR GEOGRAPHICAL AVAILABILITIES IS ALSO IMPORTANT
We also need information on what exists now in the area of waste and also the infrastructure for reprocessing.
Material moved away from Dorset is also needed to see what impact export in the UK or abroad has on the local economy, carbon and also on a critical mass of materials that might make a new enterprise work
What you get for all the input is an agenda for delivery
Not though a nice to have ideas list but a detailed business set of opportunities which may be grabbed by those who can see the investment potential.
- THIS INCLUDE INFORMATION ON WHERE, HOW AND WHAT SHOULD BE DONE, WITH AN INDICATION OF BY WHOM AND HOW VALUE MIGHT FLOW
One generic example we have looked at so far is in the area of organics.
Organic material comes from a wide range of sectors and in a range of different forms
This chart shows how much material by general sectors goes to landfill now
From the data we have been able to derive to date we estimate the value of processing organic material rather than landfilling it is about £4m per annum. With landfill tax at £80 a tonne the government’s fiscal policies to create an incentive to avoid this tax does allow the introduction of systems for collection and for the processing of material mainly into compost. THIS IS NOT A HIGH VALUE ADDED ACTIVITY
However the TEST philosophy is to make even better use of the routes fro biogenic material and to demonstrate through the TEST modelling what opportunities there are in a specified area
In our view there is a potential for a £40m market in organic materials a ten fold increase in the local economy. THE HOUSE OF LORDS HAS JUST PUBLISHED A REPORT ON THIS TOPIC AND CONCUR ON THE SIZE OF THE OPPORTUNITY
The assumptions we have used relate to the better use of material and using it for higher value products.
Another example of the benefits of using the TEST comprehensive modelling approach is that it enable a more helicopter view of what is happening now and allows one to forecast various new ways of making improvements from a carbon reduction, economic and environmental point of view.
In this example we show how by reconfiguring transport logistics there can be a 60% reduction in carbon emissions.
We also know that markets and prices change and that fixed infrastructure needs often 10 or more years to get a rate of return so we see it as important to ensure that new systems and infrastructure designs are flexible to enable not only shifts in material flows, behaviour and also to allow developments in new technology that allows added value return on recovered materials.
MODULAR AND FLEXIBLE DESIGNS HELP TO ACHIEVE THIS
One potential are to consider is the refurbishment and re use of materials in discarded furniture of which there is about 200,000 tonnes in the county.
The model of reuse and refurbishment schemes is well replicated in various parts of the country but often they are run by charities with modest support from councils.
There is generally a limit to how much these organisations can deal with and also the size of their market.
TEST will be able to model the business potential of a more focussed approach to the use of the materials in furniture. The role is not about cleaning and reselling. Customers choice limits the market, fashions change, and new furniture is competitively priced in stores .
The task to make this a business proposition is to be able to analyse where the material comes from, what mix of materials can be recovered, what products can be made from this and where the markets are. To merely say that this is a tough call and we cannot see a way forward is to give in and to lose this huge resource of material.
Currently there is a demand for furniture of good standard at low prices from quite a wide range of customers.
There are also skilled people who can assist in making products fit for resale.
But the business case has to be developed by engaging with networks of people to make it happen outside of the normal market forces. TEST will show the market potential and the spatial focus fro investment of infrastructure as well as optimum logistics.
It will also break down the component elements of the furniture market into material mixes and will also look at the best value routes for those.
So I started by saying the subject is not a new one. What was needed though was a new focus on local delivery. EU targets are only going to get tougher. We could just export all our material and let someone else get all the benefit. Some materials though will shoot up in price in the years ahead. If we do not have the means to secure their processing in the UK our industry will pay a lot more for the materials.
Why would we wish to pay more and also pay for getting rid of wastes?
We do not but in isolation no one part of the supply chain can act without help.
The TEST type of model is the catalyst to make the new resource paradigm work effectively
What it needs initially is for those interested to assist in making the model populated with the right data and then get involved in the delivery solutions
This is about future proofing business as well as helping recue global carbon emissions and in the long term ensuring the planet survives so that our successors can enjoy it as we do today.