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Resilience.IO WASH Prototype
Rembrandt Koppelaar, Xiaonan Wang,
Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College Londo...
Resilience.IO Overview
2
We need realistic insights to understand which investment
and policy decisions in reality can work to achieve our plans
To...
n A data-driven simulation model of a synthetic
population
n To experiment with different scenarios by generating
demand p...
To make this possible a large set of
technology input – output datasets is being built
5
Labour input
Hours/day
No. people...
6
Technology example – Sachet Water Facility
Sachet Bag
Production
Facility
Labour hours – 4 hours per m3
HDPE sachet bags...
7
Technology example – Sachet Water Facility
Sachet Bag
Production
Facility
Labour hours – 4 hours per m3
HDPE sachet bags...
Resilience.IO Model
8
Physical infrastructure
Physical Processes to model
resource conversions
People as ‘agents’changing
...
Application: WASH in GAMA
9
n Explore per district water and wastewater related
outcomes for the Greater Accra Metropolita...
Simulating water and
sanitation demands
10
Population characteristics
11
Agent
Data-driven Synthetic population
n A population “in the computer” is generated based on
real data collected for GAMA, lead...
Calculation method (simplified)
13
n The population characteristics sets the water demands for
each individual (e.g. lower...
Similar approach for toilet usage
n Total toilet use profile per MMDA over 24 hours
14
Use Times
Demonstration
15
1. Creation of Synthetic
Population Change
2. Simulate demands
3. Examine what
infrastructure can best
su...
What happens? Calculation (simplified)
Various settings:
n Initialize model with demands (set by user or from simulation)
...
Technology datasets - potable water
17
Technology datasets - wastewater
18
Many additional settings in prototype
19
Simulated or user
set demands
Inputs – outputs
- Materials
- Energy
- Labour
Dema...
Use Cases
20
Use Cases to demonstrate the Model
21
n Three use cases were selected by the GAMA Technical
Group in Accra, and developed ...
Which use case / scenarios to dive into?
22
Use Case 3
Toilets & Waste-water
Use Case 1:
Water & Waste-water
Baseline
Use ...
Use Case 1 Results
23
Use Case 1 “On-going projects”
24
n Baseline Scenario A) - assess water and waste-water
situation from 2010 to 2030 includ...
GAMA situation 2010-2015
25
n In the scenarios (except baseline) all unimproved sources are
phased out by 2025 as well as ...
Baseline Scenario included projects for
potable water
26
n On-going / completed projects 2010 - 2025:
¨ Kpone China Gezhou...
Results – Use Case 1 “Baseline Scenario”
27
Simulated Values 2015 2025
Population 4.39 million 5.68 million
Water Net Dema...
2015 : Existing potable water pipe connections
28
Results – Use Case 1 “Baseline Scenario”
29
Simulated Values 2015 2025
Population 4.39 million 5.68 million
WW Net Demand ...
Results – Use Case 1 “Baseline Scenario”
30
Water Demand and Waste-water profile for 2025 for Baseline Scenario
Results – Use Case 1 “Baseline Scenario”
31
Water Demand and Production per District 2025 - % water demand met?
§ VOLTA RI...
Results – Use Case 1 “Baseline Scenario”
32
Electricity use per District 2025
n Conclusion: Electricity use for potable wa...
Results – Use Case 1 “Baseline Scenario”
33
Operational cost values per district in 2025
Results –“City-Wide Scenario”
34
Simulated Values Potable 2015 2025
Population 4.39 million 5.68 million
Water Net Demand ...
Results –“City-Wide Scenario”
35
Potable Water Investment 2015 2025
Conventional Water Treatment n/a 559 thousand m3/day
T...
Results –“City-Wide Scenario” – Potable + waste
36
Operational situation 2015 (million USD) 2025 (million USD)
Total Opera...
Results –“City-Wide Scenario” – Potable + waste
37
Operational situation 2015 (million USD) 2025 (million USD)
GHG emissio...
2025 : New pipes suggested to meet 100%
improved water demands
38
2025 : Potable water flows simulated with new
infrastructure in m3 per day (excludes leaks)
39
Results – Use Case 1 “City-Wide Scenario”
40
Operational cost values per district in 2025
Results –“Decentralised Districts Scenario”
41
Simulated Values Potable 2015 2025
Population 4.39 million 5.68 million
Wat...
Results –“Decentralised Scenario”
42
Potable Water Investment 2015 2025
Conventional Water Treatment n/a 689 thousand m3/d...
2025 : Potable pipe flows within existing
infrastructure in m3 per day (excludes leaks)
43
Results – Use Case 1 “Decentralised”
44
District by district capacity for aerated lagoon treatment in 2025
Results – Use Case 1 “Decentralised”
45
District by district capacity for activated sludge treatment in 2025
Results – Use Case 1 “Decentralised”
46
District by district waste-water investment expenditure
Results – Leakage Costs
47
Simulated Values City-wide 27% leakage - 2025 17% leakage - 2025
Potable Water Leakage m3/day
2...
Use Case 2 Results
48
Use Case 2 “Improved Potable Water Sources ”
49
n Baseline Scenario A) - assess water and waste-water
situation from 2010 ...
Results Comparison –“Central Pipe Immigration”
50
Central Pipe 2015 2025
Population 4.39 million 5.68 million
Water Net De...
Results - Central Pipe Immigration”
51
Central Pipe 2015 2025
Conventional Water Treatment n/a 663 thousand m3/day
Potable...
Results –“Central Pipe + Immigration”
52
Operational situation 2025
(baseline)
(million USD)
2025
(Central Pipe)
(million ...
Use Case 3 Results
53
Use Case 3 “Availability of clean, accessible, and
affordable Toilet infrastructure”
54
n A) Baseline Scenario - assess wa...
Results – “Private Central System”
55
Population and Demands 2015 2025
Population 4.39 million 5.68 million
Faecal Sludge ...
Results – Use Case 3
56
District by district Faecal Sludge Production in 2025
Results – “Public Decentral System”
57
Population and Demands 2015 2025
Population 4.39 million 5.68 million
Faecal Sludge...
Results – “Public Decentral” vs “Private Central”
58
Private Central (billion USD) 2010-2015 2015-2025
Capital expenditure...
Results – Use Case 3 - “Private Centralised”
59
District by district Private Toilet Needs in 2025
Results – Use Case 3 - “Private Centralised”
60
District by district Central Waste Water Treatment in 2025
Results – Use Case 3 - “Private Centralised”
61
Waste-water + faecal sludge pipe flow map for 2025
Results – Use Case 3 - “Public Decentralised”
62
District by district Public Toilet Use Times per day (every 5 minutes)
Results – Use Case 3 - “Public Decentralised”
63
District by district Public Toilet Needs in 2025
Results – Use Case 3 - “Public Decentralised”
64
District by district Aerated Lagoon Capacity in 2025
Results – Use Case 3 - “Public Decentralised”
65
District by district Activated Sludge Capacity in 2025
Results – Use Case 3 - “Public Decentralised”
66
District by district Faecal Sludge Separation & Drying in 2025
Q & A / Interactive
67
Many additional settings in prototype
68
Simulated or user
set demands
Inputs – outputs
- Materials
- Energy
- Labour
Dema...
Next phase(s) of the project
n Construction of user friendly GIS graphical interface, to
upload data, run the model, and s...
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resilience.io WASH prototype Debut Workshop - GAMA

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overview of the model, it's application in GAMA and a summary of the early use case results

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resilience.io WASH prototype Debut Workshop - GAMA

  1. 1. Resilience.IO WASH Prototype Rembrandt Koppelaar, Xiaonan Wang, Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, UK IIER – Institute for Integrated Economic Research Accra - June 2016 Resilience.IO platform
  2. 2. Resilience.IO Overview 2
  3. 3. We need realistic insights to understand which investment and policy decisions in reality can work to achieve our plans To evaluate the result of decision options Expectations, Goals, Plans Investment and policy decisions 2015 2020 2025 Option A Option B Option C Decision choice ? Situation today Aims for this decade Future changes Environmental, Economic, Social Needs
  4. 4. n A data-driven simulation model of a synthetic population n To experiment with different scenarios by generating demand profiles, and to find supply from a description of technologies and networks using optimisation with key performance metrics n A fully open-source approach at ‘laptop’ scale The approach: Resilience.IO Model 4
  5. 5. To make this possible a large set of technology input – output datasets is being built 5 Labour input Hours/day No. people Job-types Waste heat Material inputs Quantity/hour ’’ /day ’’ /week ’’ /month ’’ /year Goods outputs Quantity/hour ’’ /day ’’ /week ’’ /month ’’ /year Energy input Electricity Heat Fuels Liquids Wastes Volume/time Solid Wastes Mass/time GHG Emissions Operational cost Currency/time for labour, energy, materials Investment cost Currency/facility
  6. 6. 6 Technology example – Sachet Water Facility Sachet Bag Production Facility Labour hours – 4 hours per m3 HDPE sachet bags – 7.7 kg/m3 HDPE container bags – 0.6 kg/m3 Electricity – 15.1 MJ/m3 Jobs – 3 jobs per 1100 m3 Sachet – 1 m3 2000 x 500 ml Gasoline – 19.4 MJ/m3 Carbon dioxide – 1.39 kg/m3 Water vapour – 0.64 kg/m3 Nitrogen emissions – 5.85 kg/m3 Plastic Waste – 8.3 kg/m3
  7. 7. 7 Technology example – Sachet Water Facility Sachet Bag Production Facility Labour hours – 4 hours per m3 HDPE sachet bags – 7.7 kg/m3 HDPE container bags – 0.6 kg/m3 Electricity – 15.1 MJ/m3 Jobs – 3 jobs per 1100 m3 Sachet – 1 m3 2000 x 500 ml Gasoline – 19.4 MJ/m3 Carbon dioxide – 1.39 kg/m3 Water vapour – 0.64 kg/m3 Nitrogen emissions – 5.85 kg/m3 Plastic Waste – 8.3 kg/m3 Example: the estimated sachet water in 2015 used is 1015 m3 per day (+- 2 million sachet bags of 500 ml) à 8.4 tons of HDPE plastic waste
  8. 8. Resilience.IO Model 8 Physical infrastructure Physical Processes to model resource conversions People as ‘agents’changing the human ecosystem Resource Flows across Networks Policy & Investment Decisions
  9. 9. Application: WASH in GAMA 9 n Explore per district water and wastewater related outcomes for the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area: n Socio-economic scenarios n Source water treatment n Potable water distribution n Water demands and usage n Toilet use n Waste water collection n Waste water treatment
  10. 10. Simulating water and sanitation demands 10
  11. 11. Population characteristics 11 Agent
  12. 12. Data-driven Synthetic population n A population “in the computer” is generated based on real data collected for GAMA, leading to a representative synthetic population (~0.1% of real population) n Socio-economic data inputs ¨ Gender (male or female) ¨ Age (0-14 years or 15+) ¨ Work force status (Employed / Not active or unemployed) ¨ Income status (Low income / Medium income / High income) n Spatial data inputs ¨ Home location (point in district) ¨ Work location, based on distance from home 12
  13. 13. Calculation method (simplified) 13 n The population characteristics sets the water demands for each individual (e.g. lower income à lower water demands) n The water use is evaluated for every 5 minutes based on a time dependent mathematical function. n Multiply output to aggregate total water demands of the whole population
  14. 14. Similar approach for toilet usage n Total toilet use profile per MMDA over 24 hours 14 Use Times
  15. 15. Demonstration 15 1. Creation of Synthetic Population Change 2. Simulate demands 3. Examine what infrastructure can best supply demands
  16. 16. What happens? Calculation (simplified) Various settings: n Initialize model with demands (set by user or from simulation) n Set initial infrastructure (facilities, pipes, their technology, capacity), and capital and operational cost values. n Set desired objectives for calculation: a) to meet % demands for potable water and b) to achieve % wastewater treatment, Model calculates how to meet these targets by optimisation, set in our simulation to find the lowest cost and GHG emissions, taking into account all the additional settings. 16
  17. 17. Technology datasets - potable water 17
  18. 18. Technology datasets - wastewater 18
  19. 19. Many additional settings in prototype 19 Simulated or user set demands Inputs – outputs - Materials - Energy - Labour Demands Capacity & load Technology facility Facility Investment Operational Cost Networks Pipe leakage % Already available facilities Already available connections Newly allowed connections Water use per population characteristic Birth / Deathrates and Migration Finance Tarriffs for water, wastewater, and toilet usage Energy cost per MJ / kWh and labour cost per hour
  20. 20. Use Cases 20
  21. 21. Use Cases to demonstrate the Model 21 n Three use cases were selected by the GAMA Technical Group in Accra, and developed to demonstrate the functionality of the model from a user perspective: ¨ Use Case 1 – Assess outcomes of ongoing WASH projects and gaps towards meeting macro-level targets for planning ¨ Use Case 2 – Examine possibilities and costs to increase household access to improved potable water sources ¨ Use Case 3 – Analyse the availability of clean, accessible and affordable toilet infrastructure
  22. 22. Which use case / scenarios to dive into? 22 Use Case 3 Toilets & Waste-water Use Case 1: Water & Waste-water Baseline Use Case 2 Water supply Baseline City-Wide Decentralised districts Low pipe leakage variants Local Pipe Source Central Pipe Source High immigration variants Baseline Public toilet and local district treatment Sustainable Development Goal targets Private toilets and central GAMA treatment
  23. 23. Use Case 1 Results 23
  24. 24. Use Case 1 “On-going projects” 24 n Baseline Scenario A) - assess water and waste-water situation from 2010 to 2030 including on-going projects underway since 2010 (investment already secured) n Assess how to meet 100% improved water and waste- water demands via scenario “B) City-Wide Systems” and scenario “C) Decentralised Districts” n Additional scenario’s of B) and C) with “Leakage reduction” where a 10% reduction in pipe leakage from 27% to 17% is set.
  25. 25. GAMA situation 2010-2015 25 n In the scenarios (except baseline) all unimproved sources are phased out by 2025 as well as tanker/vendor supplies
  26. 26. Baseline Scenario included projects for potable water 26 n On-going / completed projects 2010 - 2025: ¨ Kpone China Gezhouba (186,000 m3/day) ¨ Kpone Tahal (28,000 m3/day) ¨ Teshie Desalination plant (60,000 m3/day) ¨ GAMA additional boreholes (21,000 m3/day) n Not included – already planned: ¨ Asutuare project at Volta River (200,000 m3/day)
  27. 27. Results – Use Case 1 “Baseline Scenario” 27 Simulated Values 2015 2025 Population 4.39 million 5.68 million Water Net Demand (no leaks) 391 thousand m3/day 509 thousand m3/day Water Losses (27% leaks) 226 thousand m3/day 270 thousand m3/day Total Gross Demand (incl. leaks) 617 thousand m3/day 779 thousand m3/day Total Potable Water Production 501 thousand m3/day 652 thousand m3/day Improved water % Access 70.3% 75.1% n Values for Potable Water n Conclusion: Additional treatment capacity needed to satisfy growing population water demands
  28. 28. 2015 : Existing potable water pipe connections 28
  29. 29. Results – Use Case 1 “Baseline Scenario” 29 Simulated Values 2015 2025 Population 4.39 million 5.68 million WW Net Demand (no leaks) 313 thousand m3/day 408 thousand m3/day WW Pipe Losses (27% leaks) 0 thousand m3/day 0 thousand m3/day Total Wast-water (incl. leaks) 313 thousand m3/day 408 thousand m3/day Waste-water Treatment 12 thousand m3/day 27 thousand m3/day Waste-water % Treated 3.8% 5.6% n Values for Waste-Water n Conclusion: Improvements being made in waste-water treatment, but far from 100% treatment goal by 2025
  30. 30. Results – Use Case 1 “Baseline Scenario” 30 Water Demand and Waste-water profile for 2025 for Baseline Scenario
  31. 31. Results – Use Case 1 “Baseline Scenario” 31 Water Demand and Production per District 2025 - % water demand met? § VOLTA RIVER provides an additional 388 thousand m3/day supply of treated water.
  32. 32. Results – Use Case 1 “Baseline Scenario” 32 Electricity use per District 2025 n Conclusion: Electricity use for potable water increased substantially due to new 60,000 m3/day desalination plant
  33. 33. Results – Use Case 1 “Baseline Scenario” 33 Operational cost values per district in 2025
  34. 34. Results –“City-Wide Scenario” 34 Simulated Values Potable 2015 2025 Population 4.39 million 5.68 million Water Net Demand (no leaks) 391 thousand m3/day 509 thousand m3/day Water Losses (27% leaks) 226 thousand m3/day 280 thousand m3/day Total Gross Demand (incl. leaks) 617 thousand m3/day 789 thousand m3/day Total Potable Water Production 501 thousand m3/day 789 thousand m3/day Improved water % Access 70.4% 100% Simulated Values Waste-Water 2015 2025 WW Net Demand (no leaks) 313 thousand m3/day 407 thousand m3/day WW Pipe Losses (27% leaks) 0 thousand m3/day 30 thousand m3/day Total Waste-water (incl. leaks) 313 thousand m3/day 437 thousand m3/day Waste-water Treatment 12 thousand m3/day 437 thousand m3/day Waste-water % treated 3.8% 100%
  35. 35. Results –“City-Wide Scenario” 35 Potable Water Investment 2015 2025 Conventional Water Treatment n/a 559 thousand m3/day Total Capital Costs 2015-2025 0.99 billion USD Waste-Water Investment Central Waste-Water Treatment n/a 259 thousand m3/day Aerated Lagoon Systems n/a 419 thousand m3/day Decentralised activated sludge n/a 63 thousand m3/day Total Capital Costs 2015-2025 1.0 billion USD Pipeline expansions Potable Trunks 2015-2025 n/a 11 Cost of pipe expansion n/a 0.23 billion USD n Conclusion: Additional 200 million USD per year needed to meet 100% access and treatment goals by 2025
  36. 36. Results –“City-Wide Scenario” – Potable + waste 36 Operational situation 2015 (million USD) 2025 (million USD) Total Operational Costs per year 105 136 Of which costs for electricity 2.5 18.2 Of which costs for labour 15.1 21.2 Revenues from water sales* 62.6 100.3 Revenues from sewerage 0.3 35.1 Costs per Citizen (USD) 23.9 24.0 n Conclusion: Revenues sufficient to meet operational costs under central expansion - if NRW reduced *If all water users paid at 2016 tariffs!
  37. 37. Results –“City-Wide Scenario” – Potable + waste 37 Operational situation 2015 (million USD) 2025 (million USD) GHG emissions in kg per m3 6.7 60.7 Total electricity use in million kWh 35.7 174.9 Electricity use in kWh per m3 69.5 204.4 Total jobs for Water and WW 3081 4328 Labour hours per m3 12.4 7.1 n Conclusion: Substantial expansion in electricity use, GHG emissions due to waste-water treatment, and jobs in meeting 100% targets by 2025
  38. 38. 2025 : New pipes suggested to meet 100% improved water demands 38
  39. 39. 2025 : Potable water flows simulated with new infrastructure in m3 per day (excludes leaks) 39
  40. 40. Results – Use Case 1 “City-Wide Scenario” 40 Operational cost values per district in 2025
  41. 41. Results –“Decentralised Districts Scenario” 41 Simulated Values Potable 2015 2025 Population 4.39 million 5.68 million Water Net Demand (no leaks) 391 thousand m3/day 509 thousand m3/day Water Losses (27% leaks) 226 thousand m3/day 430 thousand m3/day Total Gross Demand (incl. leaks) 617 thousand m3/day 939 thousand m3/day Total Potable Water Production 501 thousand m3/day 939 thousand m3/day Improved water % Access 70.4% 100% Simulated Values Waste-Water 2015 2025 WW Net Demand (no leaks) 313 thousand m3/day 407 thousand m3/day WW Pipe Losses (27% leaks) 0 thousand m3/day 0 thousand m3/day Total Waste-water (incl. leaks) 313 thousand m3/day 407 thousand m3/day Waste-water Treatment 12 thousand m3/day 407 thousand m3/day Waste-water % treated 3.8% 100%
  42. 42. Results –“Decentralised Scenario” 42 Potable Water Investment 2015 2025 Conventional Water Treatment n/a 689 thousand m3/day Improved Springs and Wells 40 thousand m3/day Total Capital Costs 2015-2025 1.61 billion USD Waste-Water Investment Central Waste-Water Treatment n/a 0 thousand m3/day Aerated Lagoon Systems n/a 539 thousand m3/day Decentralised activated sludge n/a 167 thousand m3/day Total Capital Costs 2015-2025 0.33 billion USD Pipeline expansions Potable Trunks 2015-2025 n/a 0 Cost of pipe expansion n/a 0 billion USD n Conclusion: Central system expansion for potable water + per district treatment for waste-water much more cost effective
  43. 43. 2025 : Potable pipe flows within existing infrastructure in m3 per day (excludes leaks) 43
  44. 44. Results – Use Case 1 “Decentralised” 44 District by district capacity for aerated lagoon treatment in 2025
  45. 45. Results – Use Case 1 “Decentralised” 45 District by district capacity for activated sludge treatment in 2025
  46. 46. Results – Use Case 1 “Decentralised” 46 District by district waste-water investment expenditure
  47. 47. Results – Leakage Costs 47 Simulated Values City-wide 27% leakage - 2025 17% leakage - 2025 Potable Water Leakage m3/day 280 thousand m3/day 180 thousand m3/day Gross Water Treatment needs (including leaks) 802 thousand m3/day 702 thousand m3/day Additional investment cost 2015 – 2025 for 100% improved potable water access 999 million USD 680 million USD Total System Operational costs per year 136 million USD 126 million USD n Conclusion: A 10% reduction in pipe water leakage results in 300 million USD lower investment needs and a 10 million USD per year operational cost reduction
  48. 48. Use Case 2 Results 48
  49. 49. Use Case 2 “Improved Potable Water Sources ” 49 n Baseline Scenario A) - assess water and waste-water situation from 2010 to 2030 including on-going projects underway since 2010 (investment already secured) n Assess how to meet 100% improved water demands via scenario “B) Local Pipe Source” and scenario “C) Central Pipe Source only” n Additional scenario’s of A), B) and C) with “High Immigration” where the population immigration rate is 50% higher then in the baseline
  50. 50. Results Comparison –“Central Pipe Immigration” 50 Central Pipe 2015 2025 Population 4.39 million 5.68 million Water Net Demand (no leaks) 391 thousand m3/day 509 thousand m3/day Water Losses (27% leaks) 226 thousand m3/day 281 thousand m3/day Total Gross Demand (incl. leaks) 617 thousand m3/day 790 thousand m3/day Total Potable Water Production 501 thousand m3/day 790 thousand m3/day Improved water % Access 70.3% 100% Central Pipe w. high Immigration 2015 2025 Population 4.70 million 7.02 million Water Net Demand (no leaks) 417 thousand m3/day 629 thousand m3/day Water Losses (27% leaks) 229 thousand m3/day 309 thousand m3/day Total Gross Demand (incl. leaks) 646 thousand m3/day 938 thousand m3/day Total Potable Water Production 513 thousand m3/day 938 thousand m3/day Improved water % Access 68.0% 100%
  51. 51. Results - Central Pipe Immigration” 51 Central Pipe 2015 2025 Conventional Water Treatment n/a 663 thousand m3/day Potable Trunks 2015-2025 n/a 6 Total Capital Costs 2015-2025 1.18 billion USD Central Pipe w. High Immigration Conventional Water Treatment n/a 893 thousand m3/day Potable Trunks 2015-2025 n/a 7 Total Capital Costs 2015-2025 1.65 billion USD n Conclusion: About 230,000 m3/day of capacity is required to meet 100% improved water access by 2025 for high immigration, with an additional cost of 470 million USD
  52. 52. Results –“Central Pipe + Immigration” 52 Operational situation 2025 (baseline) (million USD) 2025 (Central Pipe) (million USD) 2025 (Central Pipe) (million USD) Population as per baseline High immigration Total Operational Costs per year 166 81 94 Of which costs for electricity 12.6 9.1 9.9 Of which costs for labour 18.6 1.8 2.1 Revenues from water sales* 100.4 100.3 123.9 Costs per Citizen (USD) 29.2 14.3 13.4 n Conclusion: Replacing local boreholes, spring, and well systems with central conventional water treatment substantially reduces system-wide operational costs
  53. 53. Use Case 3 Results 53
  54. 54. Use Case 3 “Availability of clean, accessible, and affordable Toilet infrastructure” 54 n A) Baseline Scenario - assess waste-water and sanitation situation from 2010 to 2030 including on-going projects underway since 2010 (investment already secured) n B) Public toilet & decentralised treatment – toilet demands are met by public infrastructure with local district treatment options (no pipe flows) n C) Private toilet & centralised treatment - toilet demands are met by private infrastructure with central faecal sludge treatment via a central waste-water network
  55. 55. Results – “Private Central System” 55 Population and Demands 2015 2025 Population 4.39 million 5.68 million Faecal Sludge Generation 6,651 m3/day 8,708 m3/day Waste-Water Treatment Needs 243 thousand m3/day 325 thousand m3/day Private Toilet Centralised 2010-2015 2015-2025 Private Toilets Built 103 thousand 309 thousand Central Waste Water Treatment 0 thousand m3/day 856 thousand m3/day Aerated Lagoon Treatment 0 thousand m3/day 0 thousand m3/day Decentralised Activated Sludge 0 thousand m3/day 0 thousand m3/day Faecal Sludge Separation & Drying 8.4 thousand m3/day 3.6 thousand m3/day Faecal Septage Plant UASB 0 thousand m3/day 0 thousand m3/day
  56. 56. Results – Use Case 3 56 District by district Faecal Sludge Production in 2025
  57. 57. Results – “Public Decentral System” 57 Population and Demands 2015 2025 Population 4.39 million 5.68 million Faecal Sludge Generation 6,651 m3/day 8,708 m3/day Waste-Water Treatment Needs 243 thousand m3/day 325 thousand m3/day Private Toilet Centralised 2010-2015 2015-2025 Public Toilets Built 1346 6169 Central Waste Water Treatment 16.2 thousand m3/day 0 thousand m3/day Aerated Lagoon Treatment 0 thousand m3/day 619 thousand m3/day Decentralised Activated Sludge 0 thousand m3/day 140 thousand m3/day Faecal Sludge Separation & Drying 8.4 thousand m3/day 3.6 thousand m3/day Faecal Septage Plant UASB 0 thousand m3/day 4 thousand m3/day
  58. 58. Results – “Public Decentral” vs “Private Central” 58 Private Central (billion USD) 2010-2015 2015-2025 Capital expenditure for treatment 0.02 2.79 Capital expenditure for private toilets* 0.025 0.099 Total Capital Costs 0.045 2.89 Public Decentralised (billion USD) 2010-2015 2015-2025 Capital expenditure for treatment 0.09 0.26 Capital expenditure for public toilets* 0.042 0.192 Total Capital Costs 0.132 0.352 n Conclusion: the decentralised local treatment of waste- water and faecal sludge, in combination with public toilet systems would be much more cost effective *Based on a 244 USD cost for a private toilet, and a 31 thousand USD cost for a public toilet ** Private toilets with a central treatment system become economically favourable when the cost to build one public toilet increases to more than 678.4 thousand USD
  59. 59. Results – Use Case 3 - “Private Centralised” 59 District by district Private Toilet Needs in 2025
  60. 60. Results – Use Case 3 - “Private Centralised” 60 District by district Central Waste Water Treatment in 2025
  61. 61. Results – Use Case 3 - “Private Centralised” 61 Waste-water + faecal sludge pipe flow map for 2025
  62. 62. Results – Use Case 3 - “Public Decentralised” 62 District by district Public Toilet Use Times per day (every 5 minutes)
  63. 63. Results – Use Case 3 - “Public Decentralised” 63 District by district Public Toilet Needs in 2025
  64. 64. Results – Use Case 3 - “Public Decentralised” 64 District by district Aerated Lagoon Capacity in 2025
  65. 65. Results – Use Case 3 - “Public Decentralised” 65 District by district Activated Sludge Capacity in 2025
  66. 66. Results – Use Case 3 - “Public Decentralised” 66 District by district Faecal Sludge Separation & Drying in 2025
  67. 67. Q & A / Interactive 67
  68. 68. Many additional settings in prototype 68 Simulated or user set demands Inputs – outputs - Materials - Energy - Labour Demands Capacity & load Technology facility Facility Investment Operational Cost Networks Pipe leakage % Already available facilities Already available connections Newly allowed connections Water use per population characteristic Birth / Deathrates and Migration Finance Tarriffs for water, wastewater, and toilet usage Energy cost per MJ / kWh and labour cost per hour
  69. 69. Next phase(s) of the project n Construction of user friendly GIS graphical interface, to upload data, run the model, and see results. n Multi-sector model ¨ water-energy-food nexus integrated modelling ¨ entire urban economy (15 sectors) n Domain use expansions ¨ Socio-economic dynamics ¨ Happiness and health metrics ¨ Climate scenarios and flooding 69

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